Torque

Refund or hard lines?

Tony Finau (8.9k) Cameron Young (8.6k) Sam Burns (8.3k) Sungjae Im (8.1k) Min Woo Lee (7.6k) Kurt Kitayama (7.1k) 48.6k in total.

Had to be you that did it @harry_rag

I'm glad you didn't have time. Much more fun the way you did it

My money's on Homer Simpson. Has a great chance this year and the course should suit

Didn't mean it's a silly bet - far from it. Just made me chuckle what you wrote.

Should be the first thing you see on logging in @harry_rag Banner at the top of the screen scrolls through offers. If you don't see this then I'm guessing you've been gubbed.

Arsenal v Leeds (1) 1.28 Barnsley v Morecambe (1) 1.40 Roma v Sampdoria (1) 1.44 10pt treble

That makes sense, but as I was saying the bigger boost relative to the odds isn't much use when the initial odds get almost exponentially worse the bigger they are, meaning that you're needing to clear an increasingly higher hurdle with the boost.

Maybe the best way to approach it is to compare the bookie odds with the exchanges, as there'll probably be some occasions where higher odds at the bookies are quite close to those on the exchanges. It's got to be harder though to turn an -EV bet to start with - which most longer odds bets are at the bookies - into a +EV bet the further you are away from an +EV price to begin with.

I realise that. But at the same time it stands to reason that the closer the odds are to fair to begin with, the more value can be obtained with the boost. Unless I've got my wires crossed somewhere.

Backing Spain was the way to go. But even with that, losing was always possible.

That's recency bias @MCLARKE In the long run it'll always be better to back the favourites as the odds will be closer to fair, meaning that with the boost there's a chance to achieve +EV. Generally speaking, the bigger the bookie odds, the further away from fair odds. Can't remember which game it was during this international break, but it was one of the big teams against one of the minnows and the draw odds at the bookie were about 33 to 1. On the exchanges it was about 80 to 1.

Bet 29 won. Next stake £763.59

Bet 29. Over 1.5 goals between Netherlands and Gibraltar @ 1.05

@MCLARKE's original strategy would have been successful just now, but skinny odds so debatable whether the boost would have pushed the price into value range.

Bet 28 won. Next stake £727.93

Bet 28. Over 1.5 goals between Slovenia and San Marino @ 1.05

One last punt and that's 15 points on Young to win the whole thing at 5.21 on the exchanges. Regardless of who wins this, I'd say that the whole way through the favourites have been overpriced.

Not much joy with those. Only Schauffele advanced - although it was guaranteed someone would go through for me in that tie - and a little unlucky with Kuchar and particularly Poston.

In the outrights the value once again looks like being away from the top of the market. Scheffler looks very strong and is a deserved favourite, but some of the prices further back look wrong to me and so that's where I'll be backing a few players on the exchanges. 3pts Schauffele to win WGC Matchplay @ 12.27 4pts Homa to win WGC Matchplay @ 14.23 3pts Putnam to win WGC Matchplay @ 37.26 2pts Kuchar to win WGC Matchplay @ 35.30 4pts Spaun to win WGC Matchplay @ 39.22 4pts Poston to win WGC Matchplay @ 49.02

Just the two winners. A couple of close ones went against me and that was the difference between profit and loss.

Don't feel bad @amity Wu had an injury timeout which couldn't have helped, add to that not being able to consolidate the first set break plus Diego doing what he always used to do by saving a truck load of break points and that's most of the ingredients needed to send the bet down. You'll get the next one I'm sure

It's a very bad idea to win. If you lose all the time you can stake what you like