Torque

Tottenham v Bournemouth (1) 1.44 Man City v Leicester (1) 1.15 Atletico Madrid v Almeria (1) 1.22 10pt treble

I ran a thread for about three years where I had maybe one or two other users post. That's the way it tends to be. Correction it was over four years. There were three posts in total from two other users in that time so by comparision @The Accountant your thread is a hive of activity.

I'm sure there's a check box where you can specify you don't want the bet to stand if the player isn't starting.

I'll be surprised if they do. Time will tell if you keep a record of the bigger odds bets for long enough. As I think I've already mentioned, my guess is that the higher the odds are the worse they are, so that even with the boost applied some bets will remain -EV.

Let's put it this way. If you know nothing about a sport - and I know nothing about horse racing - then it's always going to be better for your pocket to bet at shorter odds. That way you'll lose less and that's always a good place to start when trying to make money betting.

You could be right but it's going to take a lot more than 34 bets to reveal that. You'll need hundreds of bets at those odds before you can say that you're getting value. The 34 bets you've placed so far that have given you a good return could be the result of nothing more than positive variance - better known as good luck.

The trouble is @MCLARKE at those odds the sample size isn't anywhere near big enough to suggest you're on to a good thing. Carrying on at those odds could easily see you giving the 600 quid back plus more on top. 34 bets wouldn't even be instructive if the odds were all below even money.

Southampton v Man City (2) 1.25 AC Milan v Empoli (1) 1.36 Barcelona v Girona (1) 1.28 10pt treble

Appreciate the effort @Fader

Refund or hard lines?

Tony Finau (8.9k) Cameron Young (8.6k) Sam Burns (8.3k) Sungjae Im (8.1k) Min Woo Lee (7.6k) Kurt Kitayama (7.1k) 48.6k in total.

Had to be you that did it @harry_rag

I'm glad you didn't have time. Much more fun the way you did it

My money's on Homer Simpson. Has a great chance this year and the course should suit

Didn't mean it's a silly bet - far from it. Just made me chuckle what you wrote.

Should be the first thing you see on logging in @harry_rag Banner at the top of the screen scrolls through offers. If you don't see this then I'm guessing you've been gubbed.

Arsenal v Leeds (1) 1.28 Barnsley v Morecambe (1) 1.40 Roma v Sampdoria (1) 1.44 10pt treble

That makes sense, but as I was saying the bigger boost relative to the odds isn't much use when the initial odds get almost exponentially worse the bigger they are, meaning that you're needing to clear an increasingly higher hurdle with the boost.

Maybe the best way to approach it is to compare the bookie odds with the exchanges, as there'll probably be some occasions where higher odds at the bookies are quite close to those on the exchanges. It's got to be harder though to turn an -EV bet to start with - which most longer odds bets are at the bookies - into a +EV bet the further you are away from an +EV price to begin with.

I realise that. But at the same time it stands to reason that the closer the odds are to fair to begin with, the more value can be obtained with the boost. Unless I've got my wires crossed somewhere.

Backing Spain was the way to go. But even with that, losing was always possible.

That's recency bias @MCLARKE In the long run it'll always be better to back the favourites as the odds will be closer to fair, meaning that with the boost there's a chance to achieve +EV. Generally speaking, the bigger the bookie odds, the further away from fair odds. Can't remember which game it was during this international break, but it was one of the big teams against one of the minnows and the draw odds at the bookie were about 33 to 1. On the exchanges it was about 80 to 1.

Bet 29 won. Next stake £763.59

Bet 29. Over 1.5 goals between Netherlands and Gibraltar @ 1.05