Torque

Hard lines with our USA bets @harry_rag, but they can't say they didn't have their chances and their luck ran out in the penalties after being fortunate to make it out of their group. There's 12 teams left now and I'm having a few more bets on the exchanges. In some cases it's about minimising losses, but otherwise I've got Spain and Colombia onside and a scratch bet on England. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 3.74 35pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 4.82 10pts Japan to win Women's World Cup @ 6.29 5pts Netherlands to win Women's World Cup @ 13.74

And then there were 14. Spain made a bit of a statement with their win and Japan also got through without too much fuss. That means I've lost Norway but that wasn't unexpected. The consequence of those results is that Spain have come in and that's not just because they've made the next round. Another consequence is that the teams that haven't played have gone out a little and that's to be expected as both Spain and Japan made the next round as favourites. With all that in mind, I'm backing Spain and adding to positions on England and the USA. I wasn't really keen on backing Spain given all the noise around their coach and a number of missing players who chose to boycott the tournament, but I can't ignore the dominance of their win. If they don't really want to play for their coach they certainly aren't showing it. Nothing has changed for me as far as England and the USA are concerned, and so with both now available at bigger odds than I've already taken I'm happy to top-up on both. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.04 Betfair Exchange 20pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 5.21 Betfair Exchange 20pts USA to win Women's World Cup @ 7.27 Betfair Exchange

I took them at a similar price before the off. Looks a terrible bet based on what we've seen so far.

I'm not in love with Norway hence the stake, but I do think Colombia might surprise. They've looked good to me.

Now we're at the last 16 stage I've had a look at the outrights and this is what I'm going with for the moment. First up is a saver on England. They're into favourites now, but I'm far from convinced. Nonetheless, they know how to win tournaments now after the Euros and that could make the difference. Talking of teams that know how to win tournaments, my next bet is on the USA. There's no question they've underwhelmed, but they have such pedigree I think you write them off at your peril. They're a bigger price now than they were before the tournament kicked off - obviously the result of some lacklustre performances - and that makes them a play for me. I'm also keeping Australia onside, as home advantage will make them an awkward opponent for any of the other teams. Getting through the group stage without Kerr means there's room for them to improve should their star striker return to fitness and feature in their next match. Finally I'm backing a couple of outsiders at big prices in the shape of Colombia and Norway. The knockout stages are likely to be cagey affairs with each team concerned first of all with not going behind, and that in combination with the shocks we've already seen suggest there'll be a surprise result or two as the tournament heads to it's conclusion. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.00 Boyles 15pts USA to win Women's World Cup @ 6.29 Betfair Exchange 5pts Australia to win Women's World Cup @ 16.19 Betfair Exchange 10pts Colombia to win Women's World Cup @ 53.92 Betfair Exchange 1pt Norway to win Women's World Cup @ 117.60 Betfair Exchange

Agree with all of those @MJT So far in this tournament a lot of the big servers have been going out and it seems like that's due to the conditions, with Murray describing them as slow and saying that it's very difficult to hit through opponents. The consequence of that is obviously long rallies, and that's where you find out who can actually play tennis - and by that I mean the game that starts after the serve has been delivered. A number of big servers have absolutely no return game to speak of and so it's not that surprising they've been found wanting. In the case of Hurkacz and Auger-Aliassime, it'd be interesting to see where they'd be ranked if you took away their serve.

Best of luck @MJT

That kind of a result is a sickener there's no doubt. There'll come a time though when you're on the right end of a collapse like that - although that's not much consolation right now.

I'm sure @harry_rag will have plenty to say in reply to the above but I'll respond to one thing that jumped off the page at me. Luck is in no way hard to explain. On the contrary, it's very easy to explain. It's the result of the interaction between probabilities and their associated losing - and winning - runs. Hot and cold streaks really don't mean anything other than that results aren't occurring as expected but the more football matches that are played with an even money favourite, for example, the more closely the winning percentage of those favourites will be 50%. All luck really is is whether you're on the right side of whatever bet you struck and on the basis that all results are possible and it's impossible to know what will happen, you can only bet when you think the odds are in your favour and accept that losing is inevitable even if that is the case. Winning is also inevitable which means you can have little to no idea what you're doing and still make money on a winning streak. What separates those that are able to make money betting with those who aren't is the ability to assess - more often than not - odds that represent probabilities that are lower than they should be and then bet them consistently in terms of staking over the long term.

Finau with the worst round of anyone in the top 10 but at least Hodges won.

Hodges really shouldn't be losing from five ahead, but if he does I reckon Finau is the player to take advantage. Was fancied coming in, has played steady up to this point and if the moment gets to Hodges then another steady round might get it done for Finau. He's my main bet on the exchanges for the final round and I'll also have a saver on Hodges because I still think he's a decent price bearing in mind the lead he has. 80pts Hodges to win PGA 3M Open @ 1.36 20pts Finau to win PGA 3M Open @ 10.31

1. McIlroy 11900 2. Fleetwood 9300 3. Rose 8000 4. Fox 7400 5. Macintyre 6800 6. Harrington 6600

Bet 41 won. Next stake £1517.06

Bet 41. Djokovic to beat Sinner @ 1.06

I don't think much has changed since they played each other in the final last year - except for the prices, which are reversed. On that basis, Jabeur might represent some value but even so I think Rybakina wins as she handles the big moments better. Part of that is down to having a metronomic game style which means everything is repeatable and that's in stark contrast to Jabeur, who has lots of variety in her game and who sometimes seems to be unable to decide which shot to play out of the myriad of shots she possesses. When you're under pressure you want to be able to fall back on patterns of play that don't require too much thought and in that sense Rybakina has the edge.

Bet 40 won. Next stake £1432.81

Bet 40. Djokovic to beat Rublev @ 1.05

Although it might be better than the current situation, which is analogous to going into the shop to find items at prices you like, only to be told that the shop won't sell them to you.

I can see your thinking here, but as it seems to be analogous to paying a fee to get into a shop to buy the items they have for sale I think I'd rather just use the exchanges.

Bet 39 won. Next stake £1365.88

Bet 39. Djokovic to beat Wawrinka @ 1.05

Bet 38 won. Next stake £1302.08

Bet 38. Swiatek to beat Linette @ 1.05

McDonald lost to Schwartzman last week on grass. That's a terrible result and whilst this is a new week, Cerundolo is deceptively good on grass despite the perception that he's a clay court specialist.

As I said to @harry_rag you're overthinking my meaning and intent. I'm not suggesting anything untoward on this thread, merely highlighting the possibility. Also, as has been suggested here on numerous occasions and as you've just mentioned, L15's can work in favour of the punter and not the bookie. I used the example of accas - and even then as I've said before there are situations where they can be worth taking - and I did that because accas are generally terrible value and generate a lot of profit for bookies. You wouldn't necessarily know that though, because every time a punter wins five figures from a 10p bet it's plastered all over bookie advertising - never mind that the bookie took six figures worth of bets from all the other losing accas, that never gets mentioned. You seem to have read what I wrote as an attack on you and others on the thread and also L15's which was not what I was doing and not what I meant.