Torque

Only bet I had before posting on here was the same as you - a bet on the USA at a boosted price, which based on how they performed needed to be boosted an awful lot more than it actually was to make it worthwhile. Right now I've got England, Spain and Colombia onside and I'm losing various amounts on the others. As previously mentioned the biggest liability is France and they're also the team that bother me the most. I see parallels with Argentina on the Men's side after their insipid start.

I was keeping my powder dry until after the quarters get started, but England have drifted quite a bit on the exchanges and I can't see an obvious reason why so I'm putting some more on them. 40pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.23

Now into 10's

The quarters are now set after France strolled past Morocco and Colombia got the better of Jamaica. From my point of view it was good to see Colombia make it through and I reckon they can give England a game in the next round. The way France performed is slightly ominous though as they represent my biggest liability right now. As the teams get whittled down the margins are getting tighter and so I'm only adding one more bet to my outrights and that's England. They've drifted slightly - most likely because of France's result - and as much as I think Colombia can challenge them you'd still expect the Lionesses to make it through. 15pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 3.94 Betfair Exchange

Looking like a great bet @harry_rag I'm glad I followed now, albeit at 100 rather than 150.

Absolutely criminal to be broken that many times by Raonic. Almost scary as he has no return game at all. Some will say all the Raonic aces were fair enough but I'm not even sure about that. I doubt he hits that many against most other top players - which Tiafoe is supposed to be according to the rankings.

Cut to 80's now @harry_rag

Looks worth a go @harry_rag good luck with it. Stand out price too - can't see it anywhere else.

Down to 10 now after England got through by the skin of their teeth and Australia won comfortably. England seem to be all over the place so far in this tournament and the lack of a definite formation isn't helping. Despite being the favourites, they'll do well to win this as other teams seem to be far more fluent and settled. Australia must be feeling positive about their chances, after another win without Kerr starting. They'll know that with her back in the team for their next match - which she should be after coming off the bench against Denmark - they'll be an even stronger proposition. In the outrights on the exchanges I've added a little more to my position on Spain and also a small amount on France. I'm also bringing Sweden onside after their win over the USA. As much as they rode their luck in that match, it's a massive boost in confidence to beat one of the tournament favourites. 10pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 4.72 5pts France to win Women's World Cup @ 8.64 20pts Sweden to win Women's World Cup @ 13.74

I was on Henley and as you say those last three holes were something else. Except for landing in a divot for one shot, very hard not to call it a choke otherwise.

Hard lines with our USA bets @harry_rag, but they can't say they didn't have their chances and their luck ran out in the penalties after being fortunate to make it out of their group. There's 12 teams left now and I'm having a few more bets on the exchanges. In some cases it's about minimising losses, but otherwise I've got Spain and Colombia onside and a scratch bet on England. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 3.74 35pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 4.82 10pts Japan to win Women's World Cup @ 6.29 5pts Netherlands to win Women's World Cup @ 13.74

And then there were 14. Spain made a bit of a statement with their win and Japan also got through without too much fuss. That means I've lost Norway but that wasn't unexpected. The consequence of those results is that Spain have come in and that's not just because they've made the next round. Another consequence is that the teams that haven't played have gone out a little and that's to be expected as both Spain and Japan made the next round as favourites. With all that in mind, I'm backing Spain and adding to positions on England and the USA. I wasn't really keen on backing Spain given all the noise around their coach and a number of missing players who chose to boycott the tournament, but I can't ignore the dominance of their win. If they don't really want to play for their coach they certainly aren't showing it. Nothing has changed for me as far as England and the USA are concerned, and so with both now available at bigger odds than I've already taken I'm happy to top-up on both. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.04 Betfair Exchange 20pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 5.21 Betfair Exchange 20pts USA to win Women's World Cup @ 7.27 Betfair Exchange

I took them at a similar price before the off. Looks a terrible bet based on what we've seen so far.

I'm not in love with Norway hence the stake, but I do think Colombia might surprise. They've looked good to me.

Now we're at the last 16 stage I've had a look at the outrights and this is what I'm going with for the moment. First up is a saver on England. They're into favourites now, but I'm far from convinced. Nonetheless, they know how to win tournaments now after the Euros and that could make the difference. Talking of teams that know how to win tournaments, my next bet is on the USA. There's no question they've underwhelmed, but they have such pedigree I think you write them off at your peril. They're a bigger price now than they were before the tournament kicked off - obviously the result of some lacklustre performances - and that makes them a play for me. I'm also keeping Australia onside, as home advantage will make them an awkward opponent for any of the other teams. Getting through the group stage without Kerr means there's room for them to improve should their star striker return to fitness and feature in their next match. Finally I'm backing a couple of outsiders at big prices in the shape of Colombia and Norway. The knockout stages are likely to be cagey affairs with each team concerned first of all with not going behind, and that in combination with the shocks we've already seen suggest there'll be a surprise result or two as the tournament heads to it's conclusion. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.00 Boyles 15pts USA to win Women's World Cup @ 6.29 Betfair Exchange 5pts Australia to win Women's World Cup @ 16.19 Betfair Exchange 10pts Colombia to win Women's World Cup @ 53.92 Betfair Exchange 1pt Norway to win Women's World Cup @ 117.60 Betfair Exchange

Agree with all of those @MJT So far in this tournament a lot of the big servers have been going out and it seems like that's due to the conditions, with Murray describing them as slow and saying that it's very difficult to hit through opponents. The consequence of that is obviously long rallies, and that's where you find out who can actually play tennis - and by that I mean the game that starts after the serve has been delivered. A number of big servers have absolutely no return game to speak of and so it's not that surprising they've been found wanting. In the case of Hurkacz and Auger-Aliassime, it'd be interesting to see where they'd be ranked if you took away their serve.

Best of luck @MJT

That kind of a result is a sickener there's no doubt. There'll come a time though when you're on the right end of a collapse like that - although that's not much consolation right now.

I'm sure @harry_rag will have plenty to say in reply to the above but I'll respond to one thing that jumped off the page at me. Luck is in no way hard to explain. On the contrary, it's very easy to explain. It's the result of the interaction between probabilities and their associated losing - and winning - runs. Hot and cold streaks really don't mean anything other than that results aren't occurring as expected but the more football matches that are played with an even money favourite, for example, the more closely the winning percentage of those favourites will be 50%. All luck really is is whether you're on the right side of whatever bet you struck and on the basis that all results are possible and it's impossible to know what will happen, you can only bet when you think the odds are in your favour and accept that losing is inevitable even if that is the case. Winning is also inevitable which means you can have little to no idea what you're doing and still make money on a winning streak. What separates those that are able to make money betting with those who aren't is the ability to assess - more often than not - odds that represent probabilities that are lower than they should be and then bet them consistently in terms of staking over the long term.

Finau with the worst round of anyone in the top 10 but at least Hodges won.

Hodges really shouldn't be losing from five ahead, but if he does I reckon Finau is the player to take advantage. Was fancied coming in, has played steady up to this point and if the moment gets to Hodges then another steady round might get it done for Finau. He's my main bet on the exchanges for the final round and I'll also have a saver on Hodges because I still think he's a decent price bearing in mind the lead he has. 80pts Hodges to win PGA 3M Open @ 1.36 20pts Finau to win PGA 3M Open @ 10.31

1. McIlroy 11900 2. Fleetwood 9300 3. Rose 8000 4. Fox 7400 5. Macintyre 6800 6. Harrington 6600

Bet 41 won. Next stake £1517.06

Bet 41. Djokovic to beat Sinner @ 1.06

I don't think much has changed since they played each other in the final last year - except for the prices, which are reversed. On that basis, Jabeur might represent some value but even so I think Rybakina wins as she handles the big moments better. Part of that is down to having a metronomic game style which means everything is repeatable and that's in stark contrast to Jabeur, who has lots of variety in her game and who sometimes seems to be unable to decide which shot to play out of the myriad of shots she possesses. When you're under pressure you want to be able to fall back on patterns of play that don't require too much thought and in that sense Rybakina has the edge.