harry_rag

We'll investigate 🙂. I believe the other issues have been resolved

Tried messaging you on here file wouldn't attach and seems to have not sent, can you inbox me your email addy?

Not really long enough to draw any conclusion about the long term returns but I’m guessing you’ve pretty much decided it’s not for you? I tried it with goalscorers and reached that conclusion but that was mainly for the practical reason that I was hardly able to get matched at my target odds. Too much time and effort to get too few bets on.

Fair points that illustrate “what type of punter are you” is yet another variable to throw into the mix generally!
I’d have said there are theoretical extremes where most punters would go one way or the other (a tiny difference in price for a couple of extra places or only getting half the odds for a single extra place) but everything in the middle is harder to call.
I might knock a spreadsheet together and perhaps @The Equaliser and anyone else who experiences the dilemma can try it out. I might get some use out of it in other sports. At least I can get the idea out of my head then and fully concentrate on the stuff I actually bet on day in day out!

I could run the numbers tomorrow. It would be good if you could collate the ratings as per your opening post and send me the spreadsheet. I think the data entry took me longer than the rating!

I could run the numbers tomorrow. It would be good if you could collate the ratings as per your opening post and send me the spreadsheet. I think the data entry took me longer than the rating!

Not to labour my previous point on the subject (well, maybe not to labour it excessively) you can get that bet at 4/5 with PP who (possibly) have a wider definition of what an assist is. Also you could dutch the best anytime goal/assist prices to around 1.75 and have the chance of landing 2 bets for the price of one.
It's hard to win in player prop markets generally and getting the best combination of price and terms can make a big difference. (For the benefit of anyone who sees the bet and fancies it perhaps.) 
Kane anytime has drifted enough for me to back him at 2.3 or more. I saw the assist at 13/2 with Ladbrokes.

Fallen 8.9 
Ylang. 8.6
Porta fortuna.  8.3 
Dance sequence. 8.0 
Content. 7.8
See the fire 7.7 
Cinderella's dream 7.7 
Darnation. 7.5 
Pretty crystal 7.5
Ramatualle.  7.2 
Regal jubilee 7.2
Brilliant 7.2 
Starstyle. 7.0 
Rolica 7.0
Sacred angel 7.0 
Star music 6.8 
Timfana  6.5 
Emallca.  6.5 
Lunar eclipse 6.5 
Finsceal Luas 6.5 
 

Okay so now that's on hold shall we go for the double with the 1000 Guineas @MCLARKE @richard-westwood same again @harry_rag?

I think I prefer this approach, where the horse's rating is converted to a % of your average rating for all runners. So a score above 100 denotes a runner with an above average rating and vice versa if <100. e.g. Clarky top rates Task Force at 80 and his average rating is 72.5 so that converts to 110.3
# Horse Odds BF AvAv 1 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 108.2 2 Haatem 34 38 107.2 3 Ghostwriter 17 20 106.6 4 River Tiber 41 130 103.8 5 Henry Longfellow 26 26 103.0 6 Rosallion 5 8.2 102.8 7 Task Force 21 23 102.3 8 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 99.7 9 Alyanaabi 21 29 99.4 10 Night Raider 17 17.5 98.4 11 Notable Speech 11 14.5 95.1 12 Inisherin 34 55 92.1 13 Diego Velazquez 51 100 91.1 14 Iberian 26 48 90.4

One more goal and potentially everybody’s happy!

Gone 6/1 for >0.5 1st half goals, btts to score in the 2nd half and Simms (easily the hottest player) to score.
Bit of an interest for all of the above digging and uses the freebie before it expires. Scorer prices looking a bit skinny at the moment but see what the line-ups bring.

Done a quick "heat map" for tonight's game (basically seeing who's scored each team's last 25 goals to get a feel for who's hot and not).
Coventry scored 28 goals in their last 13 games, scored in 11 of them with BTTS landing in 9. For Ipswich it's 27 in 12, scoring in 10 and BTTS in 7.
Looking at the bets mentioned in the previous posts, BTTS in the 2nd half landed 9 times in those 25 games so 13/8 would've made a small loss but might be ok tonight given both teams' ability to score (there are some 1 sided matches in the sample). 2nd half was the highest scoring 8 times but >1.5 landed 15 times so I think I prefer that option despite the shorter odds. Got a Betbuilder freebie that needs using so might bear all that in mind!
In terms of who's hot it's very much Simms (13 goals including 2 braces and 2 hat tricks) and Wright (7, 1 brace, 3 pens) for Coventry with Tavares the only other player to score 3 goals.
Less dominance for Ipswich; Hutchinson 6 goals including 2 braces, then just Chaplin, Moore and Hamadi managing 3 apiece.
Players in bold expected to start according to the RP preview. Now to see if that suggests any actual bets!

My first thought was I'd rather back >1.5 2nd half goals as it's often a similar price but, at 7/10, it's perhaps shorter than I was expecting. That said, it's still a runner regardless of how many goals there might be before the break. Also 13/8 for btts in the second half might be ok. Will have a look at the scorers for this one. Won on Hirst last time out but Coventry strike me as a team where I always manage to back the wrong player. Will see if I can buck that trend tonight.

Will keep it going for a bit longer but just on Saturdays for the time being.

Bellingham to score at 4.1. Him and Kane to do so at 15/2 (Kane just shy of being a single unless my exchange bet gets taken). Rodrygo "screamer" at 40/1 and also backed him 1st e/w at 10/1.

Done my "heat map" thing for tonight's game. Gone back for each team's last 30 goals to make sure there's at least 10 games in the sample for both sides.
Bayern 30 goals in 10 games, scored in 9 and BTTS in 6. Same numbers for Real 30 in 15, scored in them all and BTTS in 8. All screams goals but you have to bear in mind the occasion and the possibility of a tighter games.
Who's hot scorer wise? Some geezer called Kane, scored 9 including a brace and a hat trick. 4 for Muller (1 brace) and Gnabry. 3 each Musiala and Goretzka.
Junior 8 (2 braces), Rodrygo 5 (1 brace), 3 for Diaz and Bellingham.
Diaz the only player mentioned not in the RP probable line ups. 3/1 Rodrygo the most appealing price at a glance but I'll wait for line ups.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid
Kane to score or assist 6/10
Muisala to score or assist 6/4
Muller to score or assist 11/8

Bellingham to score at 4.1. Him and Kane to do so at 15/2 (Kane just shy of being a single unless my exchange bet gets taken). Rodrygo "screamer" at 40/1 and also backed him 1st e/w at 10/1.

4.25 Great Blasket 2.34 WON 10/1 -1.34
Double Time 2.38 PLACED -1.38
Yantarni 3.75 PLACED -2.75
4.45 Our Papa Smurf 2.62 PLACED -1.62
Mrs Nell 4.6 +1
5.10 Mr Trevor 4.1 +1
Variety Island 2.34 WON 6/1 -1.34
6.20 Stolen Encounter 5.2 +1
Prince Hector 5.3 +1
18/1 10/1 9/1 and 6/1 winners in that lot at SP.
 
Final score on the doors LAYS 51 won +35 lost 16 -19.77  RT+2.80 less Betfair commission

Ah, remember the days when you had to look up the correct score odds on the back of the coupon or a chart on the wall in the bookies! Sometimes there was value to be had in the 100/1 for any score not listed angle.
The bookies were slow to cotton on in the number of goals creeping up in certain competitions (Champions League and Serie A for example) and I hit the odd 3-3 draw at 100/1. Also Hills did a half-time coupon where 2-2 at half time was 100/1 for every game. I think I did that to tiny stake doubles across the whole coupon but I had some early success before gradually giving most of it back. I think the stats across one season suggested it was value but maybe it was a freak season and I gave up on the idea. Been a very long time since I've bet on a correct score!

Gone 6/1 for >0.5 1st half goals, btts to score in the 2nd half and Simms (easily the hottest player) to score.
Bit of an interest for all of the above digging and uses the freebie before it expires. Scorer prices looking a bit skinny at the moment but see what the line-ups bring.

Done a quick "heat map" for tonight's game (basically seeing who's scored each team's last 25 goals to get a feel for who's hot and not).
Coventry scored 28 goals in their last 13 games, scored in 11 of them with BTTS landing in 9. For Ipswich it's 27 in 12, scoring in 10 and BTTS in 7.
Looking at the bets mentioned in the previous posts, BTTS in the 2nd half landed 9 times in those 25 games so 13/8 would've made a small loss but might be ok tonight given both teams' ability to score (there are some 1 sided matches in the sample). 2nd half was the highest scoring 8 times but >1.5 landed 15 times so I think I prefer that option despite the shorter odds. Got a Betbuilder freebie that needs using so might bear all that in mind!
In terms of who's hot it's very much Simms (13 goals including 2 braces and 2 hat tricks) and Wright (7, 1 brace, 3 pens) for Coventry with Tavares the only other player to score 3 goals.
Less dominance for Ipswich; Hutchinson 6 goals including 2 braces, then just Chaplin, Moore and Hamadi managing 3 apiece.
Players in bold expected to start according to the RP preview. Now to see if that suggests any actual bets!

We've (I use the word cheekily perhaps) split this race into 3 clear divisions.
It would be hoped we find the winner from our top 4 given it includes the odds on fav, or a couple of decent priced placed selections at least.
We have a clear bottom 6 so it would be nice if they all fell short of the places.
That leaves the midfield 4 of Henry L, Rosallion, Task Force and 10 Bob Tony where opinion is fairly divided. Rosallion too short to like given it's so-so showing, 
Let's hope most of them go to post and see how it all unfurls.

Good, saves me having to rate him !