harry_rag

Good luck. Have been struck by a sense of deja vu, have you posted a similar system before, or proposed doing it? 

After a 7th minute goal i was thinking this is an easy way to make money......
1-1 ft ....
Anyway after being unable to post for saturday's games here 3 interesting picks for Sunday.
SAMPDORIA v juventus ...After 5 homes Samp have scored at least two in all those games whilst Juve have conceded 2+ in 3/5 aways.
Juventus have an important CL game at home to Barcelona mid-week so some players may be rested for this .
Odds for Sampdoria 2+ goals = 3.75
 
INTER v atalanta ...4/6 homes have had 2+ while Atalanta have conceded 2+ in 3/5 aways
Atalanta have a mid-week Euro qualifier v Everton
Odds for INTER 2+ = 1.66   *If Icardi [11 goals this season] does not start then it's a no-bet .
 
utrecht v EXCELSIOR ...The away side have a 100% 2+ record in 5 aways this season
Excelsior have a full team to choose from.
Odds for EXCELSIOR 2+ - 3.75

Thanks, Harry. I recently mentioned the possibility of starting a new system in my old "HOMES" thread, but I have never used SAM's predictions before.
By the way, I apologise for the poor definition of the graphic in my first post - I will have to work on this - possibly, using another image hosting site.
 
 

The purpose of this thread is to try and identify a match where one side has [in theory] a good chance of scoring at least 2 goals.
Major leagues only .
soccerstats.com is the primary source i'll be using .
Bet 1 - Friday - REAL SOCIEDAD to score at least 2 away to Girona.
Reasoning - Sociedad have scored 2+ in 3/5 aways this season and have an average of 14 shots on target in those 5 games. They have no serious Injury or suspensions.
Girona have conceded at least 2 in 3/6 homes.
ODDS - 2.20 from Bet365
10pts staked

Canberra Vikings v Queensland Country: Valetini to score a try at 19/10 with 365 (2.8)
That's Union for the benefit of anyone else who had previously never heard of these teams! 

2 Nadolo tries made for a total of 50 so the bet was a push. A brace for Steyn meant the SX hotshots made up at 100 which is frustrating but no regrets as the right thing to, in the long term, is to take the bet that offers most value.
88 points risked and 79 returned, -9 points with an ROI of -10.23%

Since the last update we've had Benjamin and Maloney as non runners and winners on Halaholo, Carrillo (brace), Son and Villa.
141 winners from 435 bets (32.41%), +77.89 points with an ROI of 17.9%

Acronym:  Here's Another Spread Betting Entry, Expertly Named.
As primarily a spread bettor for over 20 years, here's my attempt to profit from the football spreads.
Yield, or ROI doesn't easily fit the spread betting format, because unlike tradition betting, a specific risk/reward for each bet is often unknown. In my opinion ROI is also of very limited and/or no value whatsoever with traditional betting strategies either, but maybe that's a topic for another time.
By far the majority of my spread betting, which is also true of other spread betters I know, is as a seller - or going low on the quotes. It is also true in my experience that a successful spread better has more winning bets than losing ones. In the vast majority of cases the spreader who shows a 50% strike rate will be breaking even, any less than that and you'll be a loser long term. My own 20 odd year regime as a spread winner shows me close to 66% strike rate, around 2 wins for every loss.
I need to start with a bankroll. Again, in rough & ready terms for each bet a spread seller can, in the vast majority of cases hope to stay within a win or loss calculated by the width of the spread (e.g. 10-12 would = 2) multiplied by 15. Okay, it can occasionally go outside of these parameters, but we're dealing with unknowns here, and the 15 * spreadwidth should suffice.
In this series I'll be looking at football bookings markets which have a spread width of 4, so my win/loss for each bet @ 1 point would be 60 points.
For bankroll size I'll assume a worst case of an expected 50% strike rate. Using the common Excel formula for longest losing run viz: 500 bets, 0.5 strike rate,  =LN(500)/-LN((1-0.5)))  the result can be rounded up to 9. My starting bankroll will therefore be 60pts * 9 = 540pts.
For each bet in the series I will report profit/loss to 1 point bets, and report this progress as a percentage of the starting bank, NOT each stake in turn, which IMHO will show a far more informative yield on what I needed to start this project.
I've shown profits on other threads on this board, but we'll start with a level playing field here, no profits, no loss, start bank 540pts.

Hadn't realised it was quite so long ago that I had this system running! I see I had said I was going to post an end-of -season summary but never did in the end. Whoops.
It's been busy the last few years and I've not had the time to follow a system and keep on top of it with discipline. Also, since I last posted I did set myself up to sell these over and under tips for a little while, and of course as soon as I did that it all went a bit pear shaped and that plan fairly quickly got shelved. 
So I'm just toying with the idea of resurrecting the system on here again. I need to go and try to dig out my rating spreadsheets if I can find them and then check results for the last couple of seasons to see if there was anything positive that might inspire me to start it back up again. Might be a week or two but watch this space.......

Will be following with interest Harry....
GL

Not the most cryptic of thread titles. Following on from the "Nice Work.." thread where I struggled to find one fixed odds bet a week and to limit myself to one spread bet a week, this thread will be for spread bets that strike me as offering decent value. These will be bets I would have had anyway, whether I posted them or not.
There will be one bet a day at most and, I expect, a selection most days. The exception will be those days where I don't have any spread bets or those days where none have struck me as being worth posting. Starts tomorrow, see how it goes for the next couple of months.
Stakes will usually be to 1 point unless the volatility of the bet dictates otherwise.

Not the most cryptic of thread titles. Following on from the "Nice Work.." thread where I struggled to find one fixed odds bet a week and to limit myself to one spread bet a week, this thread will be for spread bets that strike me as offering decent value. These will be bets I would have had anyway, whether I posted them or not.
There will be one bet a day at most and, I expect, a selection most days. The exception will be those days where I don't have any spread bets or those days where none have struck me as being worth posting. Starts tomorrow, see how it goes for the next couple of months.
Stakes will usually be to 1 point unless the volatility of the bet dictates otherwise.

Well done, Harry! There were downs but you got through it and reached over 80!! I follow all your bets on this thread too! Thank you! 

Rokoduguni, Finnbogason and Gregoritsch all obliged today.
133 winners from 396 bets (33.59%), +84.21 points with an ROI of 21.32%
Broken through the 80 point barrier for the first time as the end of the 3rd month approaches.

Rokoduguni, Finnbogason and Gregoritsch all obliged today.
133 winners from 396 bets (33.59%), +84.21 points with an ROI of 21.32%
Broken through the 80 point barrier for the first time as the end of the 3rd month approaches.

Rokoduguni, Finnbogason and Gregoritsch all obliged today.
133 winners from 396 bets (33.59%), +84.21 points with an ROI of 21.32%
Broken through the 80 point barrier for the first time as the end of the 3rd month approaches.

Anyone interested in this for another season? I suppose I could be tempted to do it again if there's a bit of demand, especially as I'm trying to beat him at his own game in the "Nice work..." thread! 
Reminder of how last season unfolded here, first selection to follow.
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/157730-kevin-pullein-saturday-picks-201617/?do=findComment&comment=2587079
 

A loser and a winner respectively over the last couple of weeks.
3 winners from 9 selections, +0.2 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 1.82%. -1.9 points to level stakes with an ROI of -21.11%.

Scratch Simmonds - posted first to beat deadline, cut to 23/10 and no bet as a result.

Again, a winner (Vazquez) and a loser since the last update.
121 winners from 363 bets (33.33%), +78.04 points with an ROI of 21.5%

A winner (Reed TD) and a loser since the last update. For now, at least, all 4 sports are in profit!
120 winners from 361 bets (33.15%), +77.54 points with an ROI of 21.48%

No joy tonight but Rooney, Ramsey, Haberer, Son, Robson and Graham all obliged yesterday.
119 winners from 359 bets (33.15%), +76.04 points with an ROI of 21.18%

Going really well harry,excellent picks

Both bets on Aspas oblige.
108 winners from 320 bets (33.75%), +67.56 points with an ROI of 21.11%
The brace was available at 14/1 in one place. The hat trick and score both halves (which both also would have won) could be backed at 100/1 and 33/1 in at least a couple of places. I didn't check in advance but both were above the minimum odds based on the criteria for this thread (86/1 and 23/1)! It's fair to say that the bottom line would have entered uncharted waters if I'd put those two up! 

Las Palmas v Celta Vigo: Aspas to score at 11/5 (2.71) and to score 2 or more at 12/1 (12.77) both with Lads
Anytime using price boost but fine at 21/10.