harry_rag

Not too many winning selections posted! Smolov got the hook to land 1 bet for me and the late (and cheap) Russian yellow minimised my card loss but that sell of time of 1st Saudi tournament goal looks not too clever now.
@Tiffy why did you have to bring that market to my attention! 

Not too many winning selections posted! Smolov got the hook to land 1 bet for me and the late (and cheap) Russian yellow minimised my card loss but that sell of time of 1st Saudi tournament goal looks not too clever now.
@Tiffy why did you have to bring that market to my attention! 

Dont think many saw that coming

Bought Russia's bookings points at 16 with SPIN. Think they're good for 2 or more cards, spreads expect 40 points/4 yellows which may be a little low and the split between the teams seems too far biased towards Saudi Arabia.
A lot of pressure on a relatively poor host team bodes well for a card or two!

No dig intended, just making the point that anyone who thought they knew it all would be mistaken.
I assume he's had bets that don't get printed in the paper (given that, these days, he only puts up one bet in a typical week). He has something like 19 or 20 years of profitable tipping based on if you'd followed all his published bets over a season. I suspect the prominence with which they post his record, e.g. at the end of every season, means it's decidedly not typical of all their tipsters, who are obliged to put up several tips most match days. They are more open to revealing their individual tipsters' records on request these days, good bad or indifferent.
At the end of the day they're providing journalistic content rather than a paid tipping service so there's no obligation on them to provide detailed records of past performance. It's probably telling that it's only KP and, recently at least, their golf tipster for whom they choose to regularly publish a p/l.

No dig intended, just making the point that anyone who thought they knew it all would be mistaken.
I assume he's had bets that don't get printed in the paper (given that, these days, he only puts up one bet in a typical week). He has something like 19 or 20 years of profitable tipping based on if you'd followed all his published bets over a season. I suspect the prominence with which they post his record, e.g. at the end of every season, means it's decidedly not typical of all their tipsters, who are obliged to put up several tips most match days. They are more open to revealing their individual tipsters' records on request these days, good bad or indifferent.
At the end of the day they're providing journalistic content rather than a paid tipping service so there's no obligation on them to provide detailed records of past performance. It's probably telling that it's only KP and, recently at least, their golf tipster for whom they choose to regularly publish a p/l.

Agreed, everyone likes a different strength cup of tea.  

Not sure if that "mistakenly" was a dig at me  I don't for the record, but I have been betting since I was 15 so I know plenty, but there's always different markets created that make you think of different ways to bet.

Has "every" bet he's ever done been put up though?  He's no onion, but if a tipster writes for a big company he/she should have a record so that all newbie punters can see exactly what they're made of, however as I've said already, there's a very good reason why most don't.

Cheers. The shortage of data is key here. I can tell you there was one in each of the FA and CL cup finals! 
I guess that 6 in Euro 2004 could have been unusually low. The mid-point of the 2008/2010 spreads implies an expectation of around 0.4 per game which has been raised to more like 0.5 this time round.
I think I've reached the conclusion to swerve this one but, if given a risk-free bet to use on this market, I'd sell it on the assumption it's one of those markets where SPIN can hike the price up because they know they'll get plenty of mug buyers. I suspect there'll be a cautious loading for the VAR effect.
But, because it's such an unknown, it's just too much like betting blindly.

Wouldn't have a clue really mate. Sounds a bit too deep,for my simple brain! 
I think with VAR coming into play, it could change everything.

The spread is 30-33 in 64 games so 1 in every other game.
If there were 6 in 31 as the only stat known to you without var -lets double this to 12 with var and double again to 24 
due to double the amount of matches.
The quote looks high on the face of it but you would need more historical results i think.
On balance i'd leave it.

I couldn't wait for the clarification, had to check FIFA website!
"The Golden Ball will go to the competition’s best player. FIFA will announce a shortlist of ten players after the semi-finals. The Technical Study Group of FIFA will decide on the winner until the end of the Final. The players who finish second and third will receive the adidas Silver Ball and adidas Bronze Ball respectively."
"The leading goalscorer at every FIFA World Cup™ finals is awarded the adidas Golden Boot. If two or more players are tied on goals, the winner will be decided by the total assists. If assists cannot split them, the players who played the least minutes will emerge with the prize."
So Golden Boot is, essentially top goalscorer but with the assists/minutes played criteria applying rather than dead heat rules.

@Tiffy and anyone else who likes a spread bet, Spreadex have gone up with a selection of player tournament goal minutes and there's one or two players who look over or undervalued relative to their position in the golden boot market. For instance, Kane gets the highest quote of all (possibly anticipating weight of money from patriotic/mug punters) over both Messi and Neymar who are a few points shorter than him in the GB market.
Toni Kroos's quote seems the most flattering, being higher than Coutinho who is only a third of Kroos's price for GB.
Still working through to see if there's any bets that appeal but its worth a look.

Yeah, plenty more to follow evidently but 33 prices enough to be going on with!
Kroos a sell if you like value odds on bets but too much worst case scenario downside for me.
Muller the standout for me, have bought at 78. Also bought Japan's Yoshida at 8. Seems to score a few from set pieces, he's 6 feet 2 and a cheap buy across 3 games at that price.

@Tiffy I'm on this now (pulled across from the main antepost chat thread). 90 points at 5/6.
"I picked up some coupons from my local Hills. One bet that caught my eye was 5/6 for yes or no on England getting 19 or more corners in the group stage. Although not my typical price to bet at, I did think that 5/6 was a big price for England to get at least 19 corners. They are quite prolific in that regard and the totals for the last Euros and WC were 26 and 22."
A good chance they hit double figures in at least one game, I think the odds are too big for that line. It's on the World Cup - England Specials coupon should anyone be inclined to follow.

Reminds me of a competition with SPIN several years ago for the World Cup (2002 to be precise). You had to pick 6 or 8 teams and scored points based on how they did, goals, cards, progress etc. The winner's prize was linked to so many units of the World Cup winner's currency. I was in contention for much of the competition and ultimately finished 3rd out of thousands of entrants.
My prize was essentially the £ equivalent of 1,000 Turkish Lira! 
Cue an apologetic call from SPIN and the offer of a goody bag of branded merch as some reward for my efforts.

All competitions now have PL merchandise to be won as well as cash - you lucky buggers!  

 

Sold, to the man with the already bulging antepost portfolio! 
Didn't feature at all in qualifying but made the squad after scoring 9 times in the African Nations Championship this year (an event I'd never even heard of). For a team not expected to bag too many goals he seems worth a small bet at that price. You've got to assume he's not been selected to spend all his time on the bench.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayoub_El_Kaabi

Ayoub el kaabi has 11 goals in 9 appearances for morocco. I don't know if he will start but is as big as 12/1 with b365 top morocco goalscorer so worth the risk imo.
 

That's also tipped by the Racing Post today in their 88 page World Cup pullout. Spent most of today wading though it. It's a decent enough read and should be useful for reference before each game.
To answer a question asked elsewhere by @thecurlyone1 Kevin Pullein's only tip is for Argentina who he feels may represent the best value in the outright market. There's also a couple of pages where he offers his thoughts on qualifying results (a poor guide to what lies ahead), the extent of home continent advantage for European teams, the increasing prevalence of defence over attack in International football and how luck is more significant in International tournaments than is generally acknowledged.
Also, back to @waynecoyne Spreadex have got a load more of those player goal minutes quotes up which I've not looked at yet.

Out of curiosity and nostalgia, I picked up some coupons from my local Hills. One bet that caught my eye was 5/6 for yes or no on England getting 19 or more corners in the group stage. Although not my typical price to bet at, I did think that 5/6 was a big price for England to get at least 19 corners. They are quite prolific in that regard and the totals for the last Euros and WC were 26 and 22.
Any views on that one?

MIght as well copy across the plethora of such bets I've already put up in the antepost thread, along with one or two later additions!
"I always like to back a few "out there" specials for the major tournaments and I've been working my way through the shed loads of offerings from 888, ending up with the following. These probably represent no more than a third of the ones I shortlisted and I rejected dozens more on the basis of obvious rank bad value or impossible to gauge. Feel free to state  or  against any of these but it gives me a decent interest throughout the tournament even if I'm wrong about the price offering genuine value. Bear in mind there are 64 games in the tournament and 16 knock out ties, e.g. 50/1 for the whole tournament equates to better than 3000/1 for each individual game.
20 points on any goalkeeper to give an assist at 11/2
10 points on the Golden Boot winner to miss a penalty (including during a shootout) at 9/1
8 points on any team to win at least 2 penalty shootouts at 14/1
5 points on the record for latest goal from kick off being broken (121 minutes) at 30/1
3 points on a goal being scored direct from a corner kick at 50/1
3 points on tournament progress in any group to be decided via fair play points or drawing of lots at 50/1
1 point on any player to score from their own penalty box at 500/1"
"Having completed my trawl of the "novelty specials" for the tournament, I've added these with Paddy.
50 points on 2 or more hat tricks scored (including ET) at 6/4
16 points on Ronaldo to score a direct free kick at 9/2
12 points on Eriksen to score a direct free kick at 6/1
5 points on 30+ goals scored from outside the box at 14/1
2 points on any player to score from inside their own half at 50/1"
Added these since with Skybet, perhaps a bit muggy but tempted me to chuck a 1 point stake at them!
1 point on Isco and David Silva both to score from outside the box at 28/1
1 point on Ronaldo to score 2+ headers and 2+ goals from outside the area at 125/1

No messing about there, @harry_rag! I like the bets on Ronaldo and Eriksen to score free-kicks.

MIght as well copy across the plethora of such bets I've already put up in the antepost thread, along with one or two later additions!
"I always like to back a few "out there" specials for the major tournaments and I've been working my way through the shed loads of offerings from 888, ending up with the following. These probably represent no more than a third of the ones I shortlisted and I rejected dozens more on the basis of obvious rank bad value or impossible to gauge. Feel free to state  or  against any of these but it gives me a decent interest throughout the tournament even if I'm wrong about the price offering genuine value. Bear in mind there are 64 games in the tournament and 16 knock out ties, e.g. 50/1 for the whole tournament equates to better than 3000/1 for each individual game.
20 points on any goalkeeper to give an assist at 11/2
10 points on the Golden Boot winner to miss a penalty (including during a shootout) at 9/1
8 points on any team to win at least 2 penalty shootouts at 14/1
5 points on the record for latest goal from kick off being broken (121 minutes) at 30/1
3 points on a goal being scored direct from a corner kick at 50/1
3 points on tournament progress in any group to be decided via fair play points or drawing of lots at 50/1
1 point on any player to score from their own penalty box at 500/1"
"Having completed my trawl of the "novelty specials" for the tournament, I've added these with Paddy.
50 points on 2 or more hat tricks scored (including ET) at 6/4
16 points on Ronaldo to score a direct free kick at 9/2
12 points on Eriksen to score a direct free kick at 6/1
5 points on 30+ goals scored from outside the box at 14/1
2 points on any player to score from inside their own half at 50/1"
Added these since with Skybet, perhaps a bit muggy but tempted me to chuck a 1 point stake at them!
1 point on Isco and David Silva both to score from outside the box at 28/1
1 point on Ronaldo to score 2+ headers and 2+ goals from outside the area at 125/1

An organisation that sometimes doesn't know its arse from its elbow making it difficult for the rest of us to distinguish between our boots and our balls! 

I like the look of that one @harry_rag