harry_rag

I'm wavering between being amused by that post or finding it a bit arsey. Obviously it's laughable to expect anyone to reveal the precise selection method for a winning system, especially to a first time poster, but I feel you could provide a little bit more than "I'm looking for value" (quelle surprise) without blowing the gaff.
To quote from the "Rules for posting betting systems" thread "Obviously we want as much details as possible but it is not required. A statement like "it's private, under wraps, secret" however is not sufficient. You must give a description of the bet selection process as well as the staking plan used sufficient for anyone else to get a clear idea of what's involved."
I'd suggest it wouldn't hurt to give us a tiny peak behind the veil, e.g. it's a secret system based on the number of syllables in the horses names, it's an entirely automated system or just based on your own knowledge and experience in interpreting form.
Also, with reference to the guidance in the "rules" thread, any chance you could provide an update in terms of number of bets, strike rate and (especially) yield for each bank? The performance is obviously decent to anyone who's kept even half an eye on the thread but bare profit figures alone don't impart much to anyone coming to the thread part way through.
Anyway, keep up the good work and I trust you don't mind me sharing my thoughts in response to the post in question.

Winner last night.
Wigan v Salford: 15 points on Powell to score a try at 13/5 Lads
(Fine at 5/2 without boost.)

No offence taken at this end. I thought seen as the system was being shared on a public forum  that the criteria for selection might be shared or at least explainedin some detail but it's not a problem.  Just keep those winners coming ?
 
Keep up the good work 

Yes .... here is the exact criteria for the selections ..... here is also my debit card, PIN, IBAN, BIC, a copy of my passport and also a copy of my signature ? ...sorry, couldn't resist .... I'm looking for value, horses that have a higher probability of running well/running better that what I estimate their SP will be.
 

Hello,
Thanks for these questions i should of been a bit more clear:
The application is for football betting, and supports over 20 pre-match  bet types.
The 2 main features are:
The Simulator - This allows users to feed rules based on the home team and away teams form, for example, you can choose to bet on home wins, when the home team has won their last 3 home games, but only if the away team has lost their last 3 away games, you can select many different rules. the simulator then runs over the last 2 years of football and matches games to your rules and selects them as bets, gets the odds from my database and checks if the bet won , when the simulator has finished it presents you with a lot of data such as the profit you would of made if you placed all the bets over the last 2 years, win rate % and more. 
Bet Alerts - After the simulator has finished, if your system was profitable its added to the pool of systems that you and others can then follow, everyday the systems rules are checked against the days fixtures and if a match is found they are sent out to the systems followers as alerts, all systems are updated every day automatically.
 
Here's some screenshots of one of my top performing system.
 
 

My take on this; I'm no expert on AH markets but I've had a quick look at the BF rules before posting this.
Unfrotunately, I think you have misunderstood the rules of the market your were betting on, i.e. it is a "final score" market rather than a "from now on" market. What you thought you were betting on would have been quoted as Arsenal +2 in this market and would have been at considerably shorter odds, The bet has been correctly settled as a push because you backed Arsenal with a one goal start and it landed on that handicap line. I have some sympathy for your view as I believe there are some firms who do operate their in play AH markets on that basis but, as I say, the odds would have been a lot shorter for what you thought you had backed.

A new system from me which I haven't tested before. A total mixed bag of backs, lays, draws etc. although I will record how each "mini-system" performs individually. Qualifying selections are based on info gleaned from the fantastic CGM Bet tool. The only issue I have is that the tool takes it's odds from the usual bookmakers, so the lay prices for my lay bets will often be higher from Betfair which may distort my figures for the lays. I'll take  each lay bet individually, and will note if the bet was unmatched, if I look for a better price and look to let the bet go in-running in order to reach my desired price.
Each bet will be either a £10.00 back, or £10.00 lay (with higher liability obviously than the £10.00, depending on the odds). Odds are from Betfair. I'm not staking any money on this as it's just a test, but will put small 10p bets on the lays so I can know for definite if I would have been matched in running or not. As ever, I STRONGLY ADVISE AGAINST  putting any money on these selections until it has proven beyond doubt that it will make me a millionaire! (I was going to say billionaire, but let's not be greedy, eh?
As ever, any questions/comments are always welcome. Edited to add, all profits posted are after 2% betfair commission has been taken off.
Selections to follow .........

Don’t necessarily let an old pessimist like me put you off even trying it though I know what you mean about some things being so time consuming that you’re not sure whether they’re worth the effort.
i was doing a lot of paper trading as sport came back after lockdown but it got so time consuming I had to stop, do the analysis and make the appropriate changes to my live bets. It got to the stage where I was probably spending 3 times as long on bets I wasn’t placing as those that were carrying my cash! It was a relief to knock it on the head, worthwhile as it had been.
I’m always a little wary of simple systems, unless they are exploiting a clear efficiency in a market (see my bets on 4-6 cards at odds against which were gong well but seem to have hit a bump in the road).
Good luck with whatever you decide, I’ll follow with interest.

Hi mate, really appreciate the input.
Initially, it was looking at the last 5 games of the identical fixture over, at most, the last 6 seasons. If not enough fixtures in that time then it wasn't considered as a bet. I like h2h stats, but not keen on going too far back. League games only also.
It's not scientific in any way but it did, for a short while, produce some good results. I might just leave it, as it's quite time consuming as well. I have another system I'm going to start on here this weekend using info from the CGM bet tool which looks promising. Less time consuming and a bit more likely to be successful so I might stick with that one instead.
 
Cheers for your thoughts ?
 

I've been a bit bored this week, off work for the UK holiday this week. Not much to do, so trawled through the forum and came across my old system test. 
 
I'm going to give this a go again until the end of the season. Would love to make profit, but will be happy to just gain info and see what works (if anything!) to refine for next season. I got frustrated with it last time, as it's very much an up and down system, but looking to be more patient and positive this time!
Last time, the first season produced a profit of around £150.00 roughly.
Same selection criteria before, matches where the last 5 matches between the same 2 teams have produced AT LEAST four over 2.5 goals results. I originally was testing for an overs/under system, but it seemed to throw up a lot of wins for either team. Noticed after a while that it also performed better with no lays of 6.00 or above.
Will test for most European leagues, also English lower leagues. All prices from Betfair, where I now have 2% commission instead of 5% so that should help a little. Lays will be for £10.00 for the sake of records for the system, but NO MONEY WILL BE STAKED AT THIS POINT, and I would strongly recommend no one follow with actual bets this time around, but if anyone feels the need, it should be minimal stakes. Although the first season produced profit, it was £250.00 down at one point, before clawing back at the end. I stopped the 2nd season at -£200.00, so extreme caution advised.
Any questions or comments are welcome. I'll need to wait until at least Friday for first selections, and there won't be many but Saturday and Sunday should be packed.  
 

3 today to kick off the week for us;

14:53 Yarmouth Sonderbar 15:00 Musselborough Primo's Comet 20:30 Wolverhampton The Cincinnati Kid  

Taking a contrarian view in the "obviously low scoring" Ireland v Wales game. Over 2.5 at 3.6 on BF and >3.5 at 8.
More based on gut feel than science, just think the market has gone a bit too far in favour of unders.

Hi, what was the game out of interest, it would help add context to your query.
On the face of it their rules seem clear enough and it would appear your bet has been settled correctly.
Are they the only book to settle in this way (extra time counting for handicap purposes)? - No. If you want chapter and verse I suggest you google a sample of other companies' rules but I just looked at one firm's betting for this weekend's NRL action and the handicap lines clearly stated that they include overtime so it's certainly not unique. They have two way betting on the final outcome and 3 way including the draw in normal time but the handicap betting is only available including overtime.
I think this is simply a case of you not quite understanding the precise terms of what you were betting on rather than an error by the bookie.

I got lucky yesterday and got on she's a dancer at 10.0 on bet365.
 
I like your post there the accountant - responsible gambling at all times folks ?

She's a Dancer came in at 2.69, the price shortened a lot, place was just 1.43.
Place Bank +€815.89
Win Bank +€5,966.77
Just to be aware, this is not a get rich quick scheme, I would be concerned about people putting anything other than minimal stakes on any of these selections. I've noted people mentioning doubles etc and I'm glad you made money on the same but stakes need to be relevant to money you can afford to lose. I am recording these to €100 back stakes, this to most people is a huge amount of money and I would certainly not recommend these types of stakes unless your betting bank is at least €10,000.
Selections for today are below;

13:15 Ffos Los Jac Brown 19:00 Chelmsford Jack The Truth  
 

Here's todays selections;

14:19 Sedgefield Red Reminder 15:29 Sedgefield She's A Dancer 18:15 Newcastle Beechwood Emily 19:00 Kempton Glamorous Anna 19:15 Newcastle Calin's Lad 20:00 Kempton Tipperary Jack  

Never see someone good in bet on horses race like you. Thank you for posting on forum for us. 

Cheers accountant 
Brilliant m8 ?

Back today with two selections. We are backing for €100, place & back.

16:50 Leicester John Clare 17:40 Lingfield Bird To Love  

Both NAP & NB won again this week
The Ravens just scrambled over the line by 0.5 on the spread
While the Saints did more than enough to bring home the bacon
Full update after the Packers / Falcons game later

I would just like to say that i have followed your input over the last few weeks and it has been greatly appreciated.  I enjoy watching the NFL on a Sunday evening, at making a few quid along the way helps
 
Cheers VT 

2 places at prices of 2.69 and 2.35 and also Buniann winning at 6.62 wraps up the week for us.
Place Bank is +€1,042.79
Win Bank +€5,275.96

4 selections for today.

12:30 Ayr Black Friday 14:40 Ayr Inductive 18:40 Wolverhampton Bavardages 19:40 Wolverhampton You're Cool  

Dragons Will Rise came in for the place at 2.73 & the Win at 7.2.
Place Bank is now + € 851.97.
Win Bank is now + € 6,433.63.

We start the week with just the one selection today

15:55 Newcastle Dragons Will Rise