harry_rag

Firstly, I must stress that I have had nothing more than a passing glance at this tournement - that being said I think I may have found a speculative, value bet for the Outright. Barcelona are set to play in the Champions League final in a couple of weeks - off that Barcelona team, 12 of them have recently been included in Spanish squads, Barcelona have form beyond this season in the Champions League too - they were Quarter Finalists last year and Semi Finalists the year before. Atletico Madrid were the only side to finish above Barcelona domestically this season, they also boast 10 recent call ups. I'm going to take a chance that the performance of those 2 clubs haven't been reflected in Spain's Outright price. A similar thing happened in the Mens Euro 2020 betting - as Ajax performed above expectations in the Champions League and the emergence of young Dutch talent such as De Ligt, De Jong and Van De Beek, the price of Holland for Euro 2020 began to fall.
Bet
1pt - Spain to win the Women's World Cup @ 25/1 Bet365

1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%)
45 points staked, 52.5 points returned
+7.25 points
ROI 16.11%

Thoughts on the cup final but no bet this week. I’ll wait till the season is fully complete before wrapping the thread up.

Just looking to get a will sorted so I can file it and forget it and was working through a checklist of what to consider. That reminded me that there's always a reasonably sized "float" on deposit across various firms.
It's bad enough for the poor sods who'll be sorting it all out to have to plough through all the banks, building societies, pension providers and utility companies we all have without them having to deal with dozens of bookies as well! 
I suppose it's just a matter of leaving a list of all your accounts with your paperwork. Might be worth considering how much to leave on deposit at any time though.

I hope you're not planning on doing anything stupid anytime soon, Harry! 
In response to the question, I'd assume it would be the individual's responsibility to identify which accounts held funds belonging to them. Upon death, the necessary parties would then trace these funds and share them amongst those the individual so wishes.

Many many thanks for posting these harry_rag. Very much appreciated. Hoping you'll continue to post next season. Thank you once again.

Cheers for these Harry.  I’ve made a few bob along the year due to these posting 
 
can’t fault you fella.  Much appreciated 

No bet from Kev this week, just musings on what usually happens in 1st leg play off games and on the last day of the Premier League season. Probably odds on now that we've had his last bet of the season.

Hi all,
         I think it's time to abandon this approach of working out a probabilty of a football game :(. The problem I have is ratings need to be spot on from day one in order for it to be profitable. I've tired a few new things and thought I'd found a way to rate teams. 
Sport is Sport and it's impossible to get a true Probabilty on it I'm sure most will agree. I tired hard for many years now to develop a football predictor with odds but at this moment in time I till don't have it.
I will carry on predicting football matches as I enjoy it  and can pick selections that have a good chance of winning but what I can't do is put a percentage on that outcome (well I can just not close enough). 
So what I'm going to do is clean this thread up when the selections have finished and move away form this approach. I enjoy posting on this forum so will continue to do so.
I will more then likely post on the Glory Hunters forum using the methods I have used to predict football matches just without my compiled odds. Thanks all for looking in and I'm sorry I was unsuccesful with this.
See you all soon 

Kev favouring the split stakes approach again, as we enter the home straight for this season.
West Ham –0.5 Asian handicap corners v Southampton, 0.5pt at 2.0 with 365
Port Vale +4 Asian handicap corners v Bury, 0.5pt at 1.9 with 365

Kev favouring the split stakes approach again, as we enter the home straight for this season.
West Ham –0.5 Asian handicap corners v Southampton, 0.5pt at 2.0 with 365
Port Vale +4 Asian handicap corners v Bury, 0.5pt at 1.9 with 365

Let it ride, only wimps use cash out! 
Whilst that's tongue in cheek, it does beg the question why not perm the bet in the first place rather than place a straight acca if what you were looking for wasn't a straight all or nothing proposition.
So I'm back to let it ride, anything else not worth the bother!

Profit/Loss of the day +9.00Pts (so far) 
Overall Profit/Loss +40.90PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  +40.90PTS
Overall Selections 37
Won 24
Lost 13
Strike rate :- 64.86%
AVG ODDS 1.84
R.O.I  11.05%
So 4/5 today but with 2 selections still to play will update later

I'm with @harry_rag on this one. I'd let it ride - with the winners you already have this is now a +EV bet. Another reason to let it ride is to consider this - if one of the legs was already a loser then obviously the bet goes down and there's no opportunity to cash out. I'm guessing you put bets on like this every season so look at the long term - If you cash out of potential winning bets for less profit, but lose your entire stake on losing bets then in the long run you could lose money instead of making money. Hopefully that makes sense 

A bit like an unexpected double firing in The Apprentice, Kev has 2 selections for this week, one each in League 1 and 2, both with 365.
Blackpool +4 Asian handicap corners v Barnsley, 0.5pt at 1.95
Port Vale 0 Asian handicap corners v Macclesfield, 0.5pt at 1.9.

I'm glad it ended - Punters Lounge forum membership is revoked after 40 consecutive losers.  

Yes, it is quite a lot of work but if you want to know what you win on and what you lose on (and who you lose/win with) then I don't know of a better way. What I do now is take a screenshot of all my bets as I place them (virtually all are on phone or tablet) and then update the spreadsheet 2 or 3 times a week. That's more practical that sticking every bet in a spreadsheet as you place them.
In terms of past bets, I've found if you log in to your accounts on a laptop or desktop it's possible to access your results for however far you want to go back (up to the maximum of 6 or 12 months usually) and copy/paste them into a spreadsheet for analysis (though the format will vary wildly from firm to firm).
Keeping records is great. How else does one get to know that one is on a losing run of 35 bets (as I was recently)? 

Yes, it is quite a lot of work but if you want to know what you win on and what you lose on (and who you lose/win with) then I don't know of a better way. What I do now is take a screenshot of all my bets as I place them (virtually all are on phone or tablet) and then update the spreadsheet 2 or 3 times a week. That's more practical that sticking every bet in a spreadsheet as you place them.
In terms of past bets, I've found if you log in to your accounts on a laptop or desktop it's possible to access your results for however far you want to go back (up to the maximum of 6 or 12 months usually) and copy/paste them into a spreadsheet for analysis (though the format will vary wildly from firm to firm).
Keeping records is great. How else does one get to know that one is on a losing run of 35 bets (as I was recently)? 

Yes, it is quite a lot of work but if you want to know what you win on and what you lose on (and who you lose/win with) then I don't know of a better way. What I do now is take a screenshot of all my bets as I place them (virtually all are on phone or tablet) and then update the spreadsheet 2 or 3 times a week. That's more practical that sticking every bet in a spreadsheet as you place them.
In terms of past bets, I've found if you log in to your accounts on a laptop or desktop it's possible to access your results for however far you want to go back (up to the maximum of 6 or 12 months usually) and copy/paste them into a spreadsheet for analysis (though the format will vary wildly from firm to firm).
Keeping records is great. How else does one get to know that one is on a losing run of 35 bets (as I was recently)? 

Thanks, guys. Sounds good about keeping a spreadsheet. It's good to hear about what other punters are doing
To me, It just feels like a lot of work to put the data in every time we do a bet.

I have to concur with @harry_rag 

The problem with using software to extract stats is that you hope it's gathering correct data. In my time with the Punters Lounge development team, I can tell you there's tons of things that can go wrong.
Keep it in a spreadsheet, double check your data input and you'll build a monster analysis tool.  

Stick your results in a spreadsheet and analyse to your heart's content!

No joy this week, West Ham would have needed a 2.5 corners start. The fact that they led for much of the game obviously didn't help our cause.
19 winners and 3 pushes from 32 bets, 8.31 points up with an ROI of 26.8% to advised stakes
7.31 points up with an ROI of 22.84% to level stakes.

That would be your call but I agree it's a big chunk to lose in terms of potential value. It will probably be the same every week though. We're talking about tips but up at 8:00 on the Racing Post website (and appearing in Saturday's paper) by a tipster with a proven track record. The prices won't usually last too long.
All that said, this week a lot of bookmakers had a similar line for the corners and, last time I looked, you could still get 1.87 for +1 with 888 (effectively the same bet as +0.5).

You must be joking, I can’t get enough to win a cup of coffee on most of these selections! 
i usually end up topping up a bit on the next best selection, e.g. the - 5 line but we’re still talking modest stake. I just do this for posterity and out of the goodness of my heart!