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harry_rag

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Posts posted by harry_rag

  1. Done the first game. McCaffrey my "nap" again, evens with Lads using a boost. Should be odds on in my opinion. Seems to be fit while Mitchell likely to be out, increasing his workload. He might score and he might not but I'm happy to back him at evens. As per last week, double stake.

    Others for me are AJ Brown at 6/4 or better and Kittle at 11/5 or better.

    Will do the other game shortly.

  2. I'll have a think. The tenner limit is universal; I guess they know a lot of the prices would be arb-able. They quoted that last one as increased from 1/4 but it was around 1.44 to lay on BF.

    Nothing surer to make their selections hit a winning streak than for us to start laying them to profit when they lose (but at least if one of us backed them and one of us laid them someone would be making a profit)!

  3. 2 minutes ago, aldric said:

    Would it work if you always backed the epic odds at evens on hills.

    Then laid the same bet on betfair with the same liability?

    Should be very profitable for every losing epic odds bet? And break even if the epic odds wins.

     

    Not worth the bother for me given the tenner stake limit. If you have a scenario where there's an arb and one side of the bet offers clear value you'd be better in the long run just backing the value bet rather than taking the arb (as you're then splitting your stake across a good and a bad bet rather than just taking a good bet). 

    One has to assume Hills have just had a period of good fortune with the way the results have gone on these selections lately. Worth considering each one on an individual basis and deciding whether to back it or not. Will have to decide whether to persist on putting them up in this thread though!

  4. Bet 18.3: 10 points on a 1st half goal in Man City v Arsenal at evens with Hills

    Shrugging off the irrational notion that these "Epic Odds" bets are cursed I'm going to the well yet again! Whilst Hills might be pushing it to say this has been boosted from 1/4 it's still a sub 1.5 shot on the exchange and I'm happy enough that it's a value bet. You have to go back 14 games to find a goalless 1st half in a meeting between these two teams. The last one was in 2017, in an FA Cup tie! :unsure

  5. 22 minutes ago, JdsGooner90 said:

    2-2 FT :zzz Just not happening. 

     

    Attempts 8

    Double up complete 1 

    Thread bank -£60.00

    Just done a quick totting up and I make it you'd be around 5 points down if you'd backed every selection to 1 point level stakes (without deducting any commission). I appreciate it's stating the bleedin' obvious to say you need a significant improvement in the strike rate to get anywhere near the 50/50 success rate required for break even but I think it's worth knowing how your selections perform to level stakes so you know whether any problem lies with your selections or your staking approach. (If you're not winning to level stakes then you can expect to lose in the long run and any short term success is down to luck; if you are winning to level stakes but not in reality then it's the staking plan that's at fault.)

    Personally (and I've no doubt said similar before) I think you need to be more selective. No-one should be betting on U21 games and low-level leagues unless they've got specialist knowledge that gives them a genuine edge. I also think betting with the bookies in these markets (as opposed to the exchange in a market with decent liquidity) is reducing your chances of making a profit. You'd be close to a 100% book on the exchange (say 3 and 1.5) whereas Hills have the protection of an 108% book (e.g. 7/4 and 2/5). It's hard to see you beating that in the long run unless you know something they don't.

    I appreciate that this is very much at the low stakes/for fun end of the spectrum but it's still worth considering ways to improve things (as losing less would definitely be more fun)!

    My advice would be:

    • Track the level stakes returns for your bets so you know how well you're really doing
    • Less bets on low level games
    • Less bets with the bookies
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