only1woz

Did bets earlier today but forgot to post up here. Sligo match deliberately on twice as it qualifies for LTD on 2 different systems for the Irish league. It's already 1-0 to sligo with around 20 mns gone 

 

Pretty horrific week this week. Have decided to leave the Italian selections from this as the matches from that league are sitting at -£170.00 so clearly not working. PSG playing a pretty weak side also didn't help.......
Go again this week.

Quick update, Finn Harps is now 3.4 and St Patricks now 3.5. Odds were not available on the tool last night for Irish matches so I estimated the odds for them, got the UC Dublin one right tho at 3.7 so no change there

Weekly results. Like I said, struggle to make profit from that Benfica result. If they had held on to their 2-0 lead at home then I'd be looking at decent profit. Also 6 winning bets where I wasn't matched. Decent recovery from that Benfica loss.
 
International break now so maybe only a few bets frim Ireland next weekend.
 

Last weeks update, until Sunday. Monday and Tuesday games will be updated in the weekly results after this sat/sun games
 

So benfica decided to throw away a 2-0 lead last night, which is a sore one. Will be tough to make profit this week but we'll give it a go.
One for tonight

I added Ireland , both leagues for the next season. If you notice some problems please let me know
 
Now,
New features in Live Statistics!
1 Live odds for selected games , with green in (D)ata column. They are just for orientation but good to see if there may be value with your bookie. You have to check it manually.
2 Red card alert for selected games. Of course if will have red cards we have to be suspicious about past stats.
3 Highlight values if odds and sample are good enough. The values will be highlighted if there may be value, but only if the sample value is over the value you set.
 

 

I update the database with the "January-December" leagues , before 1st of March.  This happens every year.. they start earlier so will lose 1-2 rounds.
I have to do changes in the program for the summer leagues and do not want to work separately for each league (some of them are not ready)

This weekends selections



 

You have many options to use AH stats already but will improve this kind of features.
For example see the picture below:
I set home/away values
1. for home teams the percent of games won with the handicap -1.5
2. for away games te percent of games lost with the handicap +1.5
then I set to be highlighted values over 30% . Where you will see "yellow" on both value (or very high values on home or away value) probably deserve to take a look to see if indeed home teams can win with at least 2 goals difference... 
As I said every time, the stats are very good to check and I can not imagine betting or trading without prepare a game checking all the possible stats
BUT
never bet only based on stats - check the last info as deep as possible
THEN
make your decision based on your strategy and always bet  what you can afford to loose. (That means to close your eyes then think you lost the bet - if you still are OK place the bet )
Just wanted to stress that because there are still guys that think that a machine (or software) can bet by itself and win money  without human intervention. 

One for tomorrow, currently sitting at 4.6.

@footysystems
how did you get on with this  ?

BRAGA, SPORTING and AVES were all winners, giving profit of £28.50, leaving the current total at £89.00
 
Todays bets are

 
Obviously I've mentioned that the odds from CGM and actual betfair odds can vary a bit. So this is my thinking moving forward.
Now, you'll see 2 sets of odds for my selections. The second set of odds is the odds from CGM bet tool (Benfica should read 6.5 not 6.7).
I'm looking to get matched as close to the CGM bet odds as possible. Maximum I will accept over the CGM odds is 1 point (so 6.0 to CGM 5.0) as I don't want to lose too much value.
In light of this, I may not get matched with some bets. If I don;t get matched then I will update when I give my results.
For example, in the Porto match above, the odds on CGM were around 8.10. I set a small bet (to test) at 8.6 a day or two ago as betfair was around 9.0, and it's now shot out to 10.0
Moving forward I wil leave the original bets up and if I get matched in play then happy days, if not it'll be a void bet.
 
I need to be wary of the value, while not cutting my nose off to spite my face
 
 
 
 
 

Update
 
Aberdeen - £9.50
Dundee - -24.50
Juventus - £9.50
Empoli - £9.50
Napoli - £9.50
Milan - £9.50
Update Total - £23.00
Overall Total - £60.50
 
 
Nothing now till after the new year. Have a great one everybody. Stay safe and have fun

very nice matey! 

Excellent weekend for this, turns it around. Got lucky with a couple of late winners but I dare say I deserved a bit of luck.
 
Nothing for tomorrow

I like the upsets tab, played about with it and noticed some patterns.

Yankee (feeling lucky this week)
PSV (9) @ 21\10
Man C (9) @ 7\5
PSG (7) @ 6\5 
Chelsea (7) @ 5\1
Singles (all in 5th place)
Arsenal @ 9\2
WBA @ 10\1
Inverness @ 15\2
 
 

My selections for today:
 
For Away strategy (18 units played, 0.95 units lost, - 5.28%)
A19: Rochdale - Portsmouth 2 @ 2.60
A20: Rapid Vienna - Polten 2 @ 5.05 !! (THIS IS MY FAVOURITE TODAY)
A21: Dukla - Fastav 2 @ 2.48
 
For Home strategy (4 units played, 4 units lost, - 100.%)
Here I will be patient, will not force...will play with attention until will come the first success (based on one of my friend prediction this will happen around 15th of March next year. Very nice guy.)
H5: Colchester - Bury 1 @ 2.41
 
And...... I intoduce today Draw strategy!!!!
The selections are made based on number of goals scored so far (if both teams scored under a specific number of goals/game then the game are good to go ) and the profile of the team (their records show an appetit for draws). And some other minor ingredients as every master chief uses  :))
D1: Grimsby - Morecambe X @ 3.10
D2: Birmingham - Ipswich X @ 3.15

With all due respect, this is beginning to sound like you just don't want to do the hard graft and want someone to give you step by step instructions on how to make money. That isn't going to happen. Apologies if I've misunderstood.
 
I'm in my 11th or 12 year of online betting and still trying to find something that works the way I want it to. But I'm enjoying the highs and lows of it.
 
And I'm damn sure that if I ever do find a successful system that makes me good money every season then I won't just be giving it away to random strangers on the Internet.

Maybe I did not explain myself  good enugh. All PL users  that will request VIP license will receive it.

If you sent the error report, you will receive an answer to your email address.
Anyway, this was a problem between seasons if you do not update for a long time but it is now fixed. I recommend you to install the new season version. Your codes should be the same.
Regarding the VIP codes, of course if the number of requests will be much more then 2 I will give 1-2 more licenses for PL members.
On the other hand, the free version does not block access to most of the program as you said. Only if you consider less then 10% of the features "most of ". :))
 
 

Cheers Grex ..just need to find out the best way to caplitalise ...
 
DEGERFORS v FALKENBERGS    0-2     Not too disheartened as Degerfors had 16 goal attempts and missed a 58th min penalty !!
BRAGE     3-2
MARIEHAMN      2-1
 
So i'll try a few staking plans and see how they pan out ..
1- Fixed stake win on the top rated match rated over 70%+
2- a rolling double on the top match provided both are rated 70% + over 2 days.
3- Fixed stake double on the top 2 rated that day
4- Fixed stake Treble on the top 3 rated that day
 
Virtual profit/loss so far on all 4 plans
1- 2/3 with a 10pt win on each would have returned a profit of +1.00pt
2- 1 win , 1 loss for a virtual profit of 4.02pts
3- 1 win from 3 for a virtual profit of 3.41pts
4- 1 win from 3 for a virtual profit of 5.11pts
 
Tuesday - Singapore - TAMPINES v HOME UTD  - 70&  -  Odds  1.57
2nd top - INTER TURKU - 64,50%   1.70
3rd top  - ORGRYTE  - 61%  -  1.80
Both Sweden
 

I'd say keep a record of all of your bets over about 6 months, maybe more. See what sports you're more profitable with and ditch the ones that you're not doing so well on?
 
Keeping records is vital to successful betting in my opinion