Im Lost

[robstars7]

Iv been betting more strategically on football for around a year now. After several deposits and not much return im feeling lost. Iv tried many different systems and different markets, using money management (usually 2-3% of my bank) but I dont seem to be getting anywhere. Im mainly betting on the o2.5 markets and home team win markets now.

I used soccerstats mainly as the site i study things from and iv got systems for both these markets. 

I feel like im kidding myself lately and I need some advice on what I could do differently to get better results.

I bet mostly in doubles and never go above trebles. 

I will only bet on things usually 2.0 or higher. sometimes I go a bit lower.

Had anyone been in this spot and come through it?! thanks. 

[Zico10]

Feel your pain! I've spent the last few years examining stats and potential systems to get that 'edge'. I found I was getting bogged down in the stats. Personally I was more successful going off my own knowledge of the game and keeping the stats fairly simple. I also like the horses but I have less knowledge in this area than football so I did some research on decent paid and non paying tipsters ( the free ones in here are generally good ) and used them. I also realised that even though I had a good football knowledge other people have better in lots of other areas. Again the football tipster here is good and the insight in some of the forums is very good. I particularly like the non league and lower scottish league guys. 

The other thing I've found for me is that my bank management and staking system is probably more important than my particular bets! Personally I don't mind slightly increasing stakes ( up to a point! ) but I imagine most other people on here would say that's a big no no. Some people can find that ' edge ', I couldn't so I've gone back to a much simpler betting style which suits me but I understand it wouldn't suit others. 

I've waffled on here, but what I'm trying to say is we've all probably been where you are. Don't give up ( but also don't lose money you don't have in the meantime!). 

[real55555]

I always supported the idea of betting based on statistics to eliminate the emotional factor. Yes, sometimes we can have better picks based on our own knowledge of a team or a game, but this can be very abstract and subjective as you do not have a checklist to crosscheck against your pick. An example, say you've probably just watched a video of say Arsenal's best goals this season and instantly. and automatically it will makes you feel Arsenal is a stronger team than they actually are.

 

While for statistical betting, the difficult part is to discover a set of criteria that give you the edge over the bookmakers but of course this is the most difficult part as bookmakers wouldn't exist anymore if it is so easy to beat them. And the second part is, once you've found the edge, it is easier to keep your discipline as mentally you know you can recover your losses (provided you've backtested it with enough sample to give you the confidence) and won't bet erratically in attempt to recover your losses.

 

My advice is maybe try going down the route of odds first before finding your criteria edge. Reason being, we might have better knowledge in one or two match than the bookmakers that gives us the edge, but it is possible to have this 'knowledge edge' over the bookmakers in most of the matches. This is where the bookie have the advantage, not to mention their odds pricing which favour themselves as well. So what I believe is that, through understanding odds you can avoid trying to research that much into the teams, players, weather etc although these are vital but they are mostly priced into the odds unless you have inside information about the match, or you have immediate information that the bookmakers have not updated their odds yet. So maybe try starting with odds and see if it makes any difference to your system or research.

 

And finally,I believe the major factor in incurring major losses in betting is more to discipline than actually finding the winners. You might be winning a small amount every month but a bad week can just trigger you to make irrational bets that wipe out years of profit. This is why I believe in statistical betting. No matter how bad a streak I'm having, I know that I can turn this around if say I have tested this system against the past 1000 matches that fit the criteria, which will end up in profit.

 

Good luck !

[robstars7]

7 hours ago, Zico10 said:

Feel your pain! I've spent the last few years examining stats and potential systems to get that 'edge'. I found I was getting bogged down in the stats. Personally I was more successful going off my own knowledge of the game and keeping the stats fairly simple. I also like the horses but I have less knowledge in this area than football so I did some research on decent paid and non paying tipsters ( the free ones in here are generally good ) and used them. I also realised that even though I had a good football knowledge other people have better in lots of other areas. Again the football tipster here is good and the insight in some of the forums is very good. I particularly like the non league and lower scottish league guys. 

The other thing I've found for me is that my bank management and staking system is probably more important than my particular bets! Personally I don't mind slightly increasing stakes ( up to a point! ) but I imagine most other people on here would say that's a big no no. Some people can find that ' edge ', I couldn't so I've gone back to a much simpler betting style which suits me but I understand it wouldn't suit others. 

I've waffled on here, but what I'm trying to say is we've all probably been where you are. Don't give up ( but also don't lose money you don't have in the meantime!). 

Thanks for the response. 

Yeah I always stick to my staking plan and keep decent br management but it just always feels like I’m saying I’m unlucky... but every week. 

I consider if this means that stats aren’t great for predicting football matches but then there is nothing else to judge it on. 

How long do you keep going for? Even though I can afford to lose the money I bet with. That’s not really a reason to keep on losing is it? 

[robstars7]

1 hour ago, real55555 said:

I always supported the idea of betting based on statistics to eliminate the emotional factor. Yes, sometimes we can have better picks based on our own knowledge of a team or a game, but this can be very abstract and subjective as you do not have a checklist to crosscheck against your pick. An example, say you've probably just watched a video of say Arsenal's best goals this season and instantly. and automatically it will makes you feel Arsenal is a stronger team than they actually are.

 

While for statistical betting, the difficult part is to discover a set of criteria that give you the edge over the bookmakers but of course this is the most difficult part as bookmakers wouldn't exist anymore if it is so easy to beat them. And the second part is, once you've found the edge, it is easier to keep your discipline as mentally you know you can recover your losses (provided you've backtested it with enough sample to give you the confidence) and won't bet erratically in attempt to recover your losses.

 

My advice is maybe try going down the route of odds first before finding your criteria edge. Reason being, we might have better knowledge in one or two match than the bookmakers that gives us the edge, but it is possible to have this 'knowledge edge' over the bookmakers in most of the matches. This is where the bookie have the advantage, not to mention their odds pricing which favour themselves as well. So what I believe is that, through understanding odds you can avoid trying to research that much into the teams, players, weather etc although these are vital but they are mostly priced into the odds unless you have inside information about the match, or you have immediate information that the bookmakers have not updated their odds yet. So maybe try starting with odds and see if it makes any difference to your system or research.

 

And finally,I believe the major factor in incurring major losses in betting is more to discipline than actually finding the winners. You might be winning a small amount every month but a bad week can just trigger you to make irrational bets that wipe out years of profit. This is why I believe in statistical betting. No matter how bad a streak I'm having, I know that I can turn this around if say I have tested this system against the past 1000 matches that fit the criteria, which will end up in profit.

 

Good luck !

But how do u test it against 1000s of matches? I usually look at results and compared it against the soccer stats average goals and fts/cs. 

 

The worrying thing is I don’t know if anyone who makes profit over the long term or who has found a real Big edge over the bookmakers. Have u?

Even reading on here I can’t see that many successful people. 

[only1woz]

Personally, I can paper trade a system for a full season, if not more, until I'm happy to place money on it. And then I'll start with stakes of £1 or £2. If the system continues to work, and my bank goes up then I increase my stakes accordingly. Takes discipline, but I'd rather paper trade for the rest of my life than lose fortunes.

 

I know of a few guys from verious forums and Facebook betting groups that make a very (some VERY!) good living from their betting.

 

Obviously it's not easy, if it was there'd be no betting as there'd be no bookies left.

 

Personally I keep records. I'll see someone else's system on here or another forum, and record the results for a few months. If it's good, I'll start with small stakes. Sometimes I notice other patterns of results. Like, it might be a draw system but from recording results I can see a lot of matches end u2.5 goals, so I'll look at that. Try to spot some patterns.

 

Still looking for my "golden system" that will make my fortunes, but I live in hope.

 

Best of luck mate

[robstars7]

14 minutes ago, only1woz said:

Personally, I can paper trade a system for a full season, if not more, until I'm happy to place money on it. And then I'll start with stakes of £1 or £2. If the system continues to work, and my bank goes up then I increase my stakes accordingly. Takes discipline, but I'd rather paper trade for the rest of my life than lose fortunes.

 

I know of a few guys from verious forums and Facebook betting groups that make a very (some VERY!) good living from their betting.

 

Obviously it's not easy, if it was there'd be no betting as there'd be no bookies left.

 

Personally I keep records. I'll see someone else's system on here or another forum, and record the results for a few months. If it's good, I'll start with small stakes. Sometimes I notice other patterns of results. Like, it might be a draw system but from recording results I can see a lot of matches end u2.5 goals, so I'll look at that. Try to spot some patterns.

 

Still looking for my "golden system" that will make my fortunes, but I live in hope.

 

Best of luck mate

That seems overkill and would take the fun out of it? Like a season is a massive amount of time. 

Thats something Iv considered too. Looking what the results are for a system that isn’t meant. That might be something to look into actually.

Are you allowed to say the Facebook groups and the forums? 

[Zico10]

I suppose the answer on how long do you keep going for depends on a number of factors. Why are you doing it being the main one? Is it just for the challenge or are you looking to make an income from it?Personally I've always believed it's possible to make money doing it but for me the big issue is discipline and finding a simple strategy. 

I stated this in another thread but my da was a reason I believe it's possible. He only bets on a saturday and the sum total of his research is a newspaper football predictions sections on the weekend matches and the form table and league table you get in the bookies. He does 2 7 or 8 timer accas with avg odds of about 4/5 on each selection. He gets about up a season but is beaten by 1 team about 10 times and gets 5 or more selections up nearly every time each week. Were he to do them as singles he'd definitely be in profit each year. 

[only1woz]

1 hour ago, robstars7 said:

That seems overkill and would take the fun out of it? Like a season is a massive amount of time. 

Thats something Iv considered too. Looking what the results are for a system that isn’t meant. That might be something to look into actually.

Are you allowed to say the Facebook groups and the forums? 

It's just the way I do it. I'm not doing it for fun, I'd love to be able to make at least a part time wage from betting and in an absolute ideal world be able to give up work and make a decent living from it.

 

I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention that stuff, could pm you. But professional gamblers exist out there so it's obviously possible.

[robstars7]

2 hours ago, only1woz said:

It's just the way I do it. I'm not doing it for fun, I'd love to be able to make at least a part time wage from betting and in an absolute ideal world be able to give up work and make a decent living from it.

 

I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention that stuff, could pm you. But professional gamblers exist out there so it's obviously possible.

I enjoy doing it but I definitely wouldn't say its fun to sit there and lose every weekend. Yeah but what difference its your system for half a season (4.5 months) to a full season. Half a season is still enough to get an idea if its going to be a successful season.

Yes can you PM me please.

[real55555]

9 hours ago, robstars7 said:

But how do u test it against 1000s of matches? I usually look at results and compared it against the soccer stats average goals and fts/cs. 

 

The worrying thing is I don’t know if anyone who makes profit over the long term or who has found a real Big edge over the bookmakers. Have u?

Even reading on here I can’t see that many successful people. 

Well, 1000 is just a small number. Start with getting a set of criteria data e.g. home goals rate of say Arsenal, away goals rate, draw rates, total goals average etc, and do it as the season go, and record the results. You'll be amazed how many matches of sample you'll be able to compile. But I must say it takes a lot of time and dedication to do this. One of my trials I managed to compile 6000+ matches in about one season involving various leagues, but unfortunately that trial didn't end up in profit, but I just kept it so when I tried testing another system, I'll see if I can utilize these data. And then back to the size of the sample, you need a lot of sample (in the thousands) so that you can convince yourself this system work during a really bad streak (e.g. 10 match losing streak) that wiped out 30-40% of your bank and makes you start to doubt your system. But if you knew you've done say 1000 matches of trial and still end up profit, your faith in your system will not be easily swayed by the volatility of your profit or loss.

The worrying thing that you mentioned, the answer is yes and no. I believe there are profitable bettors but I cannot say if they are going the 'knowledge' approach or statistical approach or some others approach. And just try to think if you are a profitable bettor, would you post it in the forum informing everyone or you will try to be as discreet as possible? This is why you probably won't see these people appearing in the forums.

 

Some tips for you:

1. oddsportal can provide you historical odds for a wide range of matches, basically 95% of the matches that you can bet on

2. The most common problem, you found a small edge of say 5-8% but this edge is eroded by your bookmakers' odds. So it is important to use the bookmaker which offer the best odds in that particular market. 

3. Compile a lot of data before you start testing the result to avoid you giving up in the event you start the trial at the start of the bad run and so you end up forfeiting the system because you see that it gives you a heavy loss. Normally I'll do the opposite trial as well in this situation. I.e. buying home win = heavy loss, then I'll try to look at the draw or away win. Those that I will give up is after say 200-300 matches it shows minimal return or loss, which means a waste of time. 

 

Hope it helps.

[real55555]

5 hours ago, robstars7 said:

I enjoy doing it but I definitely wouldn't say its fun to sit there and lose every weekend. Yeah but what difference its your system for half a season (4.5 months) to a full season. Half a season is still enough to get an idea if its going to be a successful season.

Yes can you PM me please.

Yes, first thing is you must enjoy doing it, especially the hard work of compiling the data. But then you will need a decent sample size to give you an indicative result of your trial, and then a lot more sample size to keep you going in the event of a losing streak. Every system is susceptible to a losing streak unless you can find a 100% strike rate system but that I can tell you is not possible unless it is arbitrage betting or match fixing. 

[real55555]

And another approach you can try is look for 'value bets'. What do I mean with Value bets is that say Watford has won 4 games in a row for now, logically speaking their odds of beating their next opponent would've been shorter than before the start of the season. So if you think they are overachieving, try look into the betting markets of their future matches. Mathematically it is possible they will win the rest of their premier league games as every match is an independent event, but we all know realistically that is not possible. And then as well as the reasoning that people like to bet on favourites despite them disagreeing with the price offered, but of course it will not be as simple as simply backing the underdogs will net you a profit otherwise the bookmakers will go out of business. Just try to look at these for a start and how you include certain criteria to help you develop a profitable system

[robstars7]

3 hours ago, real55555 said:

And another approach you can try is look for 'value bets'. What do I mean with Value bets is that say Watford has won 4 games in a row for now, logically speaking their odds of beating their next opponent would've been shorter than before the start of the season. So if you think they are overachieving, try look into the betting markets of their future matches. Mathematically it is possible they will win the rest of their premier league games as every match is an independent event, but we all know realistically that is not possible. And then as well as the reasoning that people like to bet on favourites despite them disagreeing with the price offered, but of course it will not be as simple as simply backing the underdogs will net you a profit otherwise the bookmakers will go out of business. Just try to look at these for a start and how you include certain criteria to help you develop a profitable system

I look at FlashScores and click the match and I’m able to look at past prices of a lot of matches. I try to test my systems against this but to get a big sample size doing this would be impossible because my systems include soccerstats (failed to score, clean sheet, average goals) and of course these all change weekly. 

I wished there was an easier way to test it. 

But this is like my 4/5 deposit in a year, when do you say ur just wasting ur time? 

Its true what u say about successful gamblers not positing on forums but there’s generally a lack of helpful information in regards to successfully betting on football on the internet. No decent YouTube videos, forums are just tipsters, no skype groups etc..... which worries me that no one has concrete evidence of what is a successful method with football. 

I only bet if the price has value. When you say having a 5-8% edge over the bookmaker. Do u mean his price is 5-8% bigger than it should be? 

[only1woz]

1 hour ago, robstars7 said:

I wished there was an easier way to test it.

Its true what u say about successful gamblers not positing on forums but there’s generally a lack of helpful information in regards to successfully betting on football on the internet. No decent YouTube videos, forums are just tipsters, no skype groups etc..... which worries me that no one has concrete evidence of what is a successful method with football.

With all due respect, this is beginning to sound like you just don't want to do the hard graft and want someone to give you step by step instructions on how to make money. That isn't going to happen. Apologies if I've misunderstood.

 

I'm in my 11th or 12 year of online betting and still trying to find something that works the way I want it to. But I'm enjoying the highs and lows of it.

 

And I'm damn sure that if I ever do find a successful system that makes me good money every season then I won't just be giving it away to random strangers on the Internet.

[robstars7]

50 minutes ago, only1woz said:

With all due respect, this is beginning to sound like you just don't want to do the hard graft and want someone to give you step by step instructions on how to make money. That isn't going to happen. Apologies if I've misunderstood.

 

I'm in my 11th or 12 year of online betting and still trying to find something that works the way I want it to. But I'm enjoying the highs and lows of it.

 

And I'm damn sure that if I ever do find a successful system that makes me good money every season then I won't just be giving it away to random strangers on the Internet.

I think Iv put in a lot of effort and give a lot of research but with such a tough challenge it would just be nice to hear or see someone successful and look at how his got there. I can’t find anyone that is making a decent income from football betting. 

Im not giving up just yet but I’m definitely abit demoralised.

How has it gone in those years u have been doing it? 

[only1woz]

Highs and lows, as I say. I've found a few systems that I've thought "yeah, this is the one" but none have quite gone the distance yet. Thankfully, with a full season of testing (unless it shows REAL promise) then small stakes I haven't lost much. Got one that I've just started testing about 2 weeks ago, and another that I tested from March this year to May, and looks very promising so I'll start with small stakes in a few weeks. It's based on form so I need 8 or 10 games before any selections come up.

 

So a couple of examples I have are a guy on a Facebook group I'm on, costing £40 for lifetime membership . He doesn't keep well and had to give up work so betting is his only income. He doesn't make fortunes but it creates a decent enough income for him. He is mainly horses, but has a couple of football systems too. I don't really get horses but he did brilliantly off them, usually his picks were based off of in form trainers. His football systems weren't really big earners, but made him a couple of grand every season so he could pay for a decent summer holiday for him and his wife. Not someone who made absolute fortunes, but probably could have if he'd been a bit more adventurous, but maybe his discipline is why he keeps making profit? His dad is really unwell atm so he doesn't have time to post his selections every day anymore so that fb group is pretty much dead atm, tho may come back, who knows?

 

Another guy was from a previous Facebook group I was in (this was £15 up to £45 monthly subscription). His method was basically to be part of a few betting groups that posted profit every month, and just place their bets. Now, he made a lot of money doing this. He was placing £275.00 per point on his bets, and had to use Asian bookies as all UK ones had banned him. He would make £5k or £6k every month normally, which is about 20 or 30 points profit, and once had a month with £20k profit.

[robstars7]

1 hour ago, only1woz said:

Highs and lows, as I say. I've found a few systems that I've thought "yeah, this is the one" but none have quite gone the distance yet. Thankfully, with a full season of testing (unless it shows REAL promise) then small stakes I haven't lost much. Got one that I've just started testing about 2 weeks ago, and another that I tested from March this year to May, and looks very promising so I'll start with small stakes in a few weeks. It's based on form so I need 8 or 10 games before any selections come up.

 

So a couple of examples I have are a guy on a Facebook group I'm on, costing £40 for lifetime membership . He doesn't keep well and had to give up work so betting is his only income. He doesn't make fortunes but it creates a decent enough income for him. He is mainly horses, but has a couple of football systems too. I don't really get horses but he did brilliantly off them, usually his picks were based off of in form trainers. His football systems weren't really big earners, but made him a couple of grand every season so he could pay for a decent summer holiday for him and his wife. Not someone who made absolute fortunes, but probably could have if he'd been a bit more adventurous, but maybe his discipline is why he keeps making profit? His dad is really unwell atm so he doesn't have time to post his selections every day anymore so that fb group is pretty much dead atm, tho may come back, who knows?

 

Another guy was from a previous Facebook group I was in (this was £15 up to £45 monthly subscription). His method was basically to be part of a few betting groups that posted profit every month, and just place their bets. Now, he made a lot of money doing this. He was placing £275.00 per point on his bets, and had to use Asian bookies as all UK ones had banned him. He would make £5k or £6k every month normally, which is about 20 or 30 points profit, and once had a month with £20k profit.

Yes that’s impressive. Tbh I’d be happy making some kind of profit and just trying to improve on it.

I just want some reward for the effort put in. 

Are the fb groups worth the subscription from ur experiences? Tbh I didn’t even know there were fb groups. All Iv had is the silly tipster ones, which have a hidden agenda imo.

So in 10 years uv never had a system that had gone the distance? Do you think systems will always have to change with the timing of the seasons and the changes of football? Or u think 1 system can last forever? 

 

 

[real55555]

5 hours ago, robstars7 said:

I look at FlashScores and click the match and I’m able to look at past prices of a lot of matches. I try to test my systems against this but to get a big sample size doing this would be impossible because my systems include soccerstats (failed to score, clean sheet, average goals) and of course these all change weekly. 

I wished there was an easier way to test it. 

But this is like my 4/5 deposit in a year, when do you say ur just wasting ur time? 

Its true what u say about successful gamblers not positing on forums but there’s generally a lack of helpful information in regards to successfully betting on football on the internet. No decent YouTube videos, forums are just tipsters, no skype groups etc..... which worries me that no one has concrete evidence of what is a successful method with football. 

I only bet if the price has value. When you say having a 5-8% edge over the bookmaker. Do u mean his price is 5-8% bigger than it should be? 

You'll need a website that makes things easier for you to record. If I'm not mistaken flashscores only provide odds for 1x2. I'd suggest you go to oddsportal for this for faster retrieval of data and recording. I'd say not to make your set of criteria over complicated. Start with a main criteria and work from there if it shows promising result, slowly adding in 1-2 sub criteria. The reason you don't want your criteria to be over complicated so that you can get a bigger sample in a shorter time and in a normal weekend you still get at least 4-5 picks, otherwise it'd pretty meaningless. And of course the most important thing is that it has to provide positive results.

 

It is time wasting when your backtesting shows that after 1000 bets you are either breakeven or only aking minimal loss or profit e,g, a positive of 2 units after 1000 matches.

 

And regarding lack of info in forums or youtube is because this group of bettors will be a very very niche group of people which you will not encounter like how you encounter them.

 

And regarding the edge over the bookmakers. Say if you are using bet365 odds for your backtesting, and if it shows a positive ROI of 5-8%, but in actual betting you use williamhill, which has say 5% lower price than bet365 in average, then you'll lose the edge or in other words 5% of your profit. Thats why I said you have to use a bookmaker that prices as close as the one that you backtest against.

[robstars7]

4 minutes ago, real55555 said:

You'll need a website that makes things easier for you to record. If I'm not mistaken flashscores only provide odds for 1x2. I'd suggest you go to oddsportal for this for faster retrieval of data and recording. I'd say not to make your set of criteria over complicated. Start with a main criteria and work from there if it shows promising result, slowly adding in 1-2 sub criteria. The reason you don't want your criteria to be over complicated so that you can get a bigger sample in a shorter time and in a normal weekend you still get at least 4-5 picks, otherwise it'd pretty meaningless. And of course the most important thing is that it has to provide positive results.

 

It is time wasting when your backtesting shows that after 1000 bets you are either breakeven or only aking minimal loss or profit e,g, a positive of 2 units after 1000 matches.

 

And regarding lack of info in forums or youtube is because this group of bettors will be a very very niche group of people which you will not encounter like how you encounter them.

 

And regarding the edge over the bookmakers. Say if you are using bet365 odds for your backtesting, and if it shows a positive ROI of 5-8%, but in actual betting you use williamhill, which has say 5% lower price than bet365 in average, then you'll lose the edge or in other words 5% of your profit. Thats why I said you have to use a bookmaker that prices as close as the one that you backtest against.

I used Soccer24. You can look at everything. I 2.5 , 1x2, ht odds etc

yeah I think u have the correct idea with the having a main criteria and then adding sub criteria. 

For high scoring games (o2.5) I find the main criteria to be a home defence under average of c/s kept for example. 

1,000 games is crazy. Although Iv kept records for a year Iv just changed my system several times.

i get what u mean with the backers being different than expected. I used to play poker at a fairly high level and top poker players usually have degrees or are very intelligent. Not punters or degenerates like a lot of people would think. 

 

 

 

[Uriel18]

Nice to find this topic. I'm very new at betting. I do it mostly for fun than for having high incomes, i'm way to far from becoming an expert bettor. Until now, i dont have like a particular betting system or strategies, what it has worked for me is to compare statistics, check info from the teams. At the very beginning, i was betting at several leagues at the same time. Someone recommended me to focus in just one or two.. I mean, I'm still learning. I have very good weeks, and others not so good. It's difficult when you compare the statistics and the team you back has fewer chances, i think the emotional factor affects a lot. 

Good to read comments from more experienced people.

[artichoke]

I've only been betting for a few months, so you might want to take the following with a grain of salt (but i have been pretty successful, hence why i bother writing). 

First, i would suggest betting less, but bigger amounts. Just focus on finding bets that fits these criterions : 1) there is value on them 2) you are as sure as it gets about the outcome. I know the "traditional way" is to bet a few points here and there on a lot of games, the theory being that it allows you to cover losing runs. 
But the thing is, unless you are a football oracle and watch every games you will end up betting on games you do not have enough informations on. It's relatively easy to accurately predict the outcome of, say, 4 games with no clear favorite (at the bookies) per month, but to be right on 20 games a month is near impossible. If you split your bets you'll indeed be able to cover losing runs, but you'll also lose more. 

Secondly, i would suggest TO GIVE UP numbers crunching, statistics, or any kind of system (or maybe it's just that it seems so boring to me). I mean, it's literally the bookies jobs, they employ all kind of people and i guess continuously adjust their model, and i don't think anyone will be able to beat them at their own trade. 
Numbers alone are not the way to get the "edge" you are looking for : the bookies crunch numbers because they cannot pay experts to watch every games, follow every club newsfeed and decide of the next odds. 
But you on the other hand, can watch a few games to prepare a bet and stay up-to-date with the state of each teams, since you're only concerned about one bet and not thousands. IMO the way to get the edge mostly lay in all the "human" stuff, just you watching the games and pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses, how the players are getting along on and off the field, is the coach being trusted, etc. etc. 

Statistics can be helpful if you select them wisely, but if you're trying to predict the outcome of a game by looking at the result of that game in the past 10 years, you might as well throw your money out of the window. Different teams, different coaches, different stakes... Even the very same team a year after can play in a very different way.
A good example i recall is France - Uruguay, a lot of TV "experts" predicted a draw because the 5 last game resulted in a draw or something, even though the teams were very different and these games were mostly low stakes games, not WC knockouts. It's absolutely idiotic.

Well, that's almost an essay

[liero1]

I am sure all input is appreciated so let me just say I personally hope you don't follow the previous posters advice. long term betting success will not be possible with just a few bets where you just punt effectively because you 'know' the team or watch the game.. if you succeed with lets say a total of 20 bets that doesn't say anything, even 100 or 300 bets are not enough, you can easily fall into negative after having a positive run. 1,000 or more bets is more significant but even then I wouldn't bet my mortgage on it... theres only one secure way to get rich,  be a bookie  but seriously, read more about how odds are created, how bookies make money, and how odds represent probability (at least the betfair odds...).

[real55555]

On 9/15/2018 at 3:53 AM, artichoke said:

I've only been betting for a few months, so you might want to take the following with a grain of salt (but i have been pretty successful, hence why i bother writing). 

First, i would suggest betting less, but bigger amounts. Just focus on finding bets that fits these criterions : 1) there is value on them 2) you are as sure as it gets about the outcome. I know the "traditional way" is to bet a few points here and there on a lot of games, the theory being that it allows you to cover losing runs. 
But the thing is, unless you are a football oracle and watch every games you will end up betting on games you do not have enough informations on. It's relatively easy to accurately predict the outcome of, say, 4 games with no clear favorite (at the bookies) per month, but to be right on 20 games a month is near impossible. If you split your bets you'll indeed be able to cover losing runs, but you'll also lose more. 

Secondly, i would suggest TO GIVE UP numbers crunching, statistics, or any kind of system (or maybe it's just that it seems so boring to me). I mean, it's literally the bookies jobs, they employ all kind of people and i guess continuously adjust their model, and i don't think anyone will be able to beat them at their own trade. 
Numbers alone are not the way to get the "edge" you are looking for : the bookies crunch numbers because they cannot pay experts to watch every games, follow every club newsfeed and decide of the next odds. 
But you on the other hand, can watch a few games to prepare a bet and stay up-to-date with the state of each teams, since you're only concerned about one bet and not thousands. IMO the way to get the edge mostly lay in all the "human" stuff, just you watching the games and pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses, how the players are getting along on and off the field, is the coach being trusted, etc. etc. 

Statistics can be helpful if you select them wisely, but if you're trying to predict the outcome of a game by looking at the result of that game in the past 10 years, you might as well throw your money out of the window. Different teams, different coaches, different stakes... Even the very same team a year after can play in a very different way.
A good example i recall is France - Uruguay, a lot of TV "experts" predicted a draw because the 5 last game resulted in a draw or something, even though the teams were very different and these games were mostly low stakes games, not WC knockouts. It's absolutely idiotic.

Well, that's almost an essay

Partly agree and disagree to your comments but you've backed it up with your reasoning. This is why statistical betting should always go with the price of the odds. Statistical betting is something like a principle that keep yourself from irrational bets and depleting your betting bank when you are in a bad run. Every bettors are bound to face a very bad losing run regardless of how good they are. The doubts that starts to appear when you are in a bad losing run is capable of causing you to give up the way you do your 'homework' before placing your bet. But if you have numbers say over a very big number of games, you will still keep to the same betting method because you know you've done enough homework that shows this method gives a long term profit (although not guaranteed, but so far it helps me from irrational betting) 

Back to the price of odds, this is where you take advantage of the number crunching and information that the bookies have. If your 'formula' shows that Manchester United have a 70% chance of winning against Leicester, and if the bookies odds price the win at 1.60 only, what will you do? If they price it at 2.00, what will you do? Does this mean the bookies' odds are more accurate or does this reflect something that your formula doesn't show up? Will this be the trend? This is up to you to interpret but I must say odds should always play a big part in any statistical betting. 

And I agree with Liero, I'd say even you manage to make a profit in 500 games based on your knowledge of the league, teams, tactics, etc, how confident are you in making the next 500 bets and confident of making a profit? What parameters or criteria do you use in 'knowledge betting'? 

Apologies if you feel I doubted your views but please enlighten us if you've had success for long periods of betting, after all we are here for a healthy discussion. 

Cheers

 

[footysystems]

For me pre match betting on football is a thing of the past the odds are far too tight and the bookies are not daft they know there stuff so it sufficates you when you try and make money from it. Pre match stats are a complete waste of time don't work been there tried it many times and failed. A member of the forum "Machine" I think his name was really made me sit up and think he said this going back 5 years or so. So it leaves the best way to make money from football ?? Is inplay the only way these days as bookies don't really know how to react.

 

Do you home work is what I do. I found out averages for dangerous attacks and all that sort of stuff once you have that you have the upper hand. I also use a site that I won't mention as I would be accused of trying to push it but I see all games on one page and I can then decide which games to play and I can actually add my filters to the statement I want to play. Without sounding like a complete know all try it a it really does work..

 

Hope this helps 

[real55555]

16 hours ago, footysystems said:

For me pre match betting on football is a thing of the past the odds are far too tight and the bookies are not daft they know there stuff so it sufficates you when you try and make money from it. Pre match stats are a complete waste of time don't work been there tried it many times and failed. A member of the forum "Machine" I think his name was really made me sit up and think he said this going back 5 years or so. So it leaves the best way to make money from football ?? Is inplay the only way these days as bookies don't really know how to react.

 

Do you home work is what I do. I found out averages for dangerous attacks and all that sort of stuff once you have that you have the upper hand. I also use a site that I won't mention as I would be accused of trying to push it but I see all games on one page and I can then decide which games to play and I can actually add my filters to the statement I want to play. Without sounding like a complete know all try it a it really does work..

 

Hope this helps 

Agree with you. I currently are doing two systems at the moment and I do agree with you the temptation to go for live betting is very strong, but unfortunately I did not do so as I'd not be able to backtest the system as effectively as pre match betting goes. And going for in-running betting means you also have to be very free to be in front of your computer or mobile as the match starts.

[footysystems]

5 hours ago, real55555 said:

Agree with you. I currently are doing two systems at the moment and I do agree with you the temptation to go for live betting is very strong, but unfortunately I did not do so as I'd not be able to backtest the system as effectively as pre match betting goes. And going for in-running betting means you also have to be very free to be in front of your computer or mobile as the match starts.

Back testing is overrated many years in this game and been there done it. I have seen systems flying on the back test and go live bomb. With live betting and doing a little home work with averages the team running above average there is likely to be a goal. This way rather than a team hitting a back tested filter it's hitting a true live tested filter. Personally I don't back under a certain price. This is how the likes of statslizard work IMVHO they just use it on bigger scales with computer program. As for sitting in front of the PC all say certainly not what I do i check maybe every 10 mins as people use there mobile and check it every 10 mins well busy people do.

[robstars7]

Thanks for all the input everyone.

I definitely think statistics are important. Yes they dont garentee anything but what does? I think they stop you from using your own common sense when betting. What I mean by that is that say Tottenham play Huddesfield at home. Everyone would think Tottenham will win. Most of the country would think Tottenham will win....its common sense. So if the stuff happened that everyone thought, and what seemed likely, then football betting would be easy. Everyone would win. But they dont, so forget what seems likely and what everyone thought would happened. Statistics arent my opinion. Nothing I bet on is really y opinion apart from the systems iv worked on. 

Dont agree with just 4 bets. I think thats uneeded. If a match comes into your system and the price is value then do it. I only do singles, doubles or trebles. Mainly just doubles. Accumlators are known to be a fun bet and extremely hard to win.

I use a 2-3% of my bank for every bet system. I know there are other ways to do things such as betting a % of your bank based on the probability. 

 

Think there is definitely weight in the in play advice! but the problem is that its impossible to look post match and see historical odds of the prices in play and historical stats of how may shots on target, dangerous attack etc there was. 

[robstars7]

2 hours ago, footysystems said:

Back testing is overrated many years in this game and been there done it. I have seen systems flying on the back test and go live bomb. With live betting and doing a little home work with averages the team running above average there is likely to be a goal. This way rather than a team hitting a back tested filter it's hitting a true live tested filter. Personally I don't back under a certain price. This is how the likes of statslizard work IMVHO they just use it on bigger scales with computer program. As for sitting in front of the PC all say certainly not what I do i check maybe every 10 mins as people use there mobile and check it every 10 mins well busy people do.

Definitely dont sit in front of the computer and check the score constantly. I put an alert on my phone or give myself a time to check it otherwise it feels like hell. 

[robstars7]

On 9/18/2018 at 11:14 AM, footysystems said:

For me pre match betting on football is a thing of the past the odds are far too tight and the bookies are not daft they know there stuff so it sufficates you when you try and make money from it. Pre match stats are a complete waste of time don't work been there tried it many times and failed. A member of the forum "Machine" I think his name was really made me sit up and think he said this going back 5 years or so. So it leaves the best way to make money from football ?? Is inplay the only way these days as bookies don't really know how to react.

 

Do you home work is what I do. I found out averages for dangerous attacks and all that sort of stuff once you have that you have the upper hand. I also use a site that I won't mention as I would be accused of trying to push it but I see all games on one page and I can then decide which games to play and I can actually add my filters to the statement I want to play. Without sounding like a complete know all try it a it really does work..

 

Hope this helps 

as iv mentioned just now, is there any way to historically check in play odds and stats? 

after the game can i check how prices went for certain things in play ? or what the dangerous attacks were and stuff?