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How to get a SHARK win

Leonard Adrian
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Leonard Adrian

Leonard Adrian

Posted
Posted (edited)

First of all I need to start with my “story”, Now I am almost 24 years old, almost 2 years ago I was in a real bad situation, I had financial problems so I started to bet on really high odds, I was betting on 12-13 matches and everytime 2 or 3 games were loss, I was telling to my best friend everyday that I will take the big pot soon, so oneday happened and I have won almost 20.000 euro with only 5 euro (2.5 on each ticket…the money didn’t last long because I was stupid…ofc I bought myself a car, a nice phone, clothes, paid all debts and stuffs…but money gone…I wasn’t depressed, I started to have more confidence…until few days ago I haven’t won any subtantial sum, of course I had won few times around 1000-2000 euro…but no more…Now I was really depressed for my ex and wanted to get her back so the only way was to proove her I can be someone…and this is how I won almost 450.000 euro with this strategy, with 20 euro on 30 tickets all the same.
THE STRATEGY:
From What I learned in past years is that there are always surprises, how you can guess this surprises ? Is simple, a team can’t win or lose forever.
Let’s take 5 leagues you know the better, in my case Bundesliga, Premier League, Seria A, LaLiga, Ligue 1. Seperate the leagues in 3 tiers.
Tier 3 – Will get out of lose streak HOME agaist a tier 3 or tier 2 if they have lose or too much wins. This tier won’t win too much so is very probably after 2-3 wins to lose, they can end a win streak just agaist a tier 2 or tier 1.
Tier 2 – This teams are balanced, so they will get out of win streak HOME just when the adverasry have won their last game and they are Tier 2 or 1. They will get out of WIN streak AWAY agaist any team have a big streak lose. They will got out of LOSE streak agaist a TIER 1 home if the the TIER 1 have too many WIN !
Tier 1 – This are the most dangerous but the best profits, this teams after they have a LOSE streak and their next game is home agaist any team they will win for sure, and if they have too much wins they will get out of it agaist a TIER 1 who have lost their last games.After lost streak of tier 1 they will have a win streak !
If a tier 3 won a game home and their next game is away and is agaist a tier 3 with many win they will probably win or draw.
If a tier 2 have too many lose they will end it agaist a tier 3 in any case, agaist tier 2 if they have lost or draw their last game and agaist a tier 1 if it has too much wins

If a team won away after a lose streak they will win the home or draw if the team is just 1 tier above.

Never combine 2 of the same from the same league, never have more than 2 BIG surprises on your ticket. Combine them inteligently, where is chance to end that streak, this is all about the law of probability and the morale that a team have and sometimes this is the most important thing.

GoalGoal – Is very good to combine those games with “both team to score”, choose carefuly those games especially if the both team score a lot but they didn’t take any goal in last games.

Also where you have doubts on Ex: Man City – Man United 1, you can combine with 1 on a ticket and with GG on other ticket !

So I combined games in this way and reapeated my ticket 30 times with 20 euro a total evert week for a year and some and I have won almost 450K euro !
I wish you to accomplish your dreams and also to make your dear ones happy with those money ! Cheers

Edited by Leonard Adrian
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Leonard Adrian

Leonard Adrian

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This week is not so good, but I am thinking of Touluse - Dijon: 1 (too much lose for touluse), Monaco - Montpellier: 1 ( away Win,  and they never won a home game this season), Crystal - Burnley 1, roma - inter Both team to score, rayo - eibar 1 ( eibar already have 3 games without defead and rayo didn t won a home game). This are just some examples, it will not come from the first weeks, but you need to keep trying, maybe this prediction will not be as I told you. But you can use this examples, also from tier 1 I think Dortmund will lose vs shalke in next round, they never lost, in the last year barcelona was so close to end a season without defead, but they have beaten by levante who had won their last 2 games

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liero1

liero1

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Posted

Hi mate thanks for input - all input is greatly appreciated.

And I don't see what your gain is if you just wanted to tell us the great lie about your winnings?! So let's assume you are completely telling the truth :) 

If THAT is the case - can you tell us more clearly about the strategy and the tiers... I understand you split the leagues in three tiers. I understand that you look at the form, especially losing and winning streaks and then you look at if they play home or away..

So for Tier 1 - you look at both win and lose streaks right? What is a streak for you, how many games?

Tier 2 - you don't care about home or away correct?

And everything together - you put on accumulators, not just singles?

Sorry many questions but this is just trying to understand what you are doing..

Thanks

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liero1

liero1

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thanks! well - I just don't get why multis would perform better than singles - in the end it's the same probabilities and value - if your single selection ain't right the multi selection won't work.. or am I seeing sth wrong - at least for long term betting..

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only1woz

only1woz

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Posted

Original post is VERY hard to follow as his English is so poor. Seems to have some merits tbf.

Spoken to a few people online over the years that had their own form tables. One guy had his own league tables based on form, not results. As in, if Man City batter Watford then Watford hold out and nick a last minute winner he'd give the points to Man City as the result wasn't a true reflection of the game and wouldn't make Man City more likely to drop points in the next match.

Seemed effective,but very, very time consuming. Fine if you don't already have a job haha.

 

This seems like a branch out of that. Could be refined to maybe be profitable, but less time consuming than the original idea of coming up with your own fully detailed league tables based on form.

 

Best way to use the theory would be up for debate. I'm more inclined towards singles but I admit I can be a bit tunnel visioned when it comes to that lol

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  • 2 weeks later...
keef75

keef75

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Posted
On 18/12/2018 at 12:37 AM, darksidersfk said:

Can u pls explain a little better than OP how u did this ?
It might be a good strat....

I second that, @footysystems - if you're around and have the time it'd be good to have a better understanding of how this works.  If I can see some value in it I could possibly include it on my rdata site to check past performance.  Cheers.

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footysystems

footysystems

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Posted (edited)

Tbh here guys the picture I posted above are a large slice of luck.

 

The original poster made the rules very vauge this is my version of this.

 

Take a league

Tier the league into teams tier 1,2,3 drag together the fixtures for that day bring that list together. Then set out 4 x 4 timers this is where it gets tricky but can be done. Which I did in the two pictures I posted above. Tbh I have not tired it again since as I thought it was just luck. But the original post seem to have legs. 

 

Another way to do this is to rate teams then tier them but sadly a coder needed to do this.

 

@keef75

If you fancy working on something give us a shout I would be willing to help pull something together for this forum ??

 

Edited by footysystems
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  • 1 month later...
perkon

perkon

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Posted

I also observed the idea which is described in the original post.

When I built up my excel stat sheets, I called this stat "streak stop", which is similar this "tiers" thing.

My "solution" : In my system the teams are ranked by ELO points, so the league tables are sorted by ELO points.

I divided this power ranking league tables into three parts. ("strong-middle-weak" teams).

In each part I observed the WDL streaks' averages contiunally through the season in total and in H/A as well.

And if one team store one result (W-D-L) up (reaching or pass the observed streak's averages of this result), this "streak stop" stat signs this warning call and we should bet against this result (maybe a "surprise" result come up from this).

Of course these "streak-averages" are just random patterns and no more. And this "patterns" breaking are not a principle, rather a tendency to do so.

In nutshell this should be the thing.

For example this WDL streak avereages in English Premier League 2017/18 after 31 round (in april 2018):

Total:

1. (1-6 ELO positions): 6-2-2 (WDL)

2. (7-14 ELO positions): 3-2-3 (WDL)

3. (15-20 ELO positions): 2-3-5 (WDL)

Home averages:

1. 7-2-1

2. 3-2-2

3. 2-2-3

Away averages:

1.4-2-2

2.2-2-4

3.1-2-4

 

 

 

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