corky

Funny frustrating game at times mate
That's why we keep coming back 

just my luck,,, de sousa gets the 1st 3 up and i take his nap in the 4th

That's ages, suppose in the meantime i could dust off me Top Hat and say hello to the Queen 

6:40 Kempton  SPARKALOT 13/8 Bet365 Willian Hill PP.  did not run well last time on turf and has a chance to get back on track this evening.  He comes from a family of AW winners and was improving on the AW. He still carries a Group 1 entry in the commonwealth cup and Jim Crowley steers tonight.

Result
Ayr 04:00 DARK CRYSTAL.....1st..5/1
Brighton 04:45 DEEDS NOT WORDS.....1st..Evens
Rule 5 Applies @ 25%
Todays Profit =  + 57.50 pts.
Current Years Profit 2017 =  + 59.24 pts.
 
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.)
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.)
Bank = + 2561.71 pts.
Profit = + 2461.71 pts.
Current Winning Run =  2

Day 15
A long day today 1 winner in the first 26 races then 4 in the next 6
Staking Plan  3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, NR, 9 10 11, 9, NR, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 20, 21, NR, 22, 23, 24, 23, 20, 21, 18, 19   for a total outlay of 431 Pts 
The largest loss at any time was 297 pts 
We had 5 winners:
George Bowen  11 Pts @ 2\1 returned 33
Ravens Hill 24 Pts @ Evs returned 48
Leeshaan 23 Pts @ 9\2 returned 126.5
No Such Number 21 Pts @ 5\2 returned 73,5
Poitin 19 Pts @ 12\1 returned 247
Total Returns for the day 523 for a day 15 profit of 92 Pts.
Total Profit : 370.17 Pts

GB 33 Ire 28
Strike Rate : GB  42.31 % Ire 42.42%
Profit (Flat) : GB 11.47 Ire 31.15
Profit (IAL) : GB 82.33 Ire 141.27 
GB
Bets 78
Wins 33
SR 42.31%
Profit (Level Stakes) 11.47
Profit (IAL) 82.33
Ireland
Bets 66
Wins 28
SR 42.42%
Profit (Level Stakes) 31.15
Profit (IAL) 141.27
we also had 8 days out of the 66, where we had a double. 

310 muss Saturday scottish sprint cup
Duke of firenxze  336
Mirza    333
Caspian Prince  327
Wide open race but top 2 here look really interesting ....Duke of firenze has shown some classy form in sprints and no surprise to see him make a bold bid here ..13/2 looks decent value ......value bet of  the race is definately mirza who also has some classy form on the clock but is being offered at an incredible 25/1 with will hill ..,silly price ..top two for me 
Duke of firenxze 5pts ew 13/2 sky bet
Mirza 5pts ew 25/1 will hill 
 

First winner - lowest stake
Thursday:
2.55 Fon: Amron Kali (+12) 1pt 4/1 Skybet
3.20 Not: George Bowen (+18) 1pt 7/2 BetVictor

Day 12
Didn't take too long today: Staking plan was as follows   3, 2, 1, 4, 5,    for a total outlay of 15 Pts
We had 1 winner:
Rubis  5 Pts @ 3\1 returned 20
Total Returns for the day 20 for a day 12 profit of 5 Pts.
Total Profit : 274.07 Pts

Day 13
Another quick day today: Staking plan was as follows   3,    for a total outlay of 3 Pts
We had 1 winner:
Initiative  3 Pts @ 6\5 returned 6.60
Total Returns for the day 6.60 for a day 13 profit of 3.6 Pts.
Total Profit : 277.67 Pts

Strike rate nowhere near god enough to make this work but will carry on for another week to see where goes;

2.15 Brighton  ROYAL LIBERTY
1pt win 6/1 Betfair BOG

Confessional 3rd ..Stake acclaim 2nd ...close race good runs ...+12 pts returned 

For a long time I've truly believed most things in life can be explained with maths .....Horse racing is no exception although there is a big luck factor involved in racing too which cannot be gauged ....I love speed ratings but they are very difficult and time consuming so when times short you can't rate anything ...like me at the moment ....but handicaps I've always believed contain the best value in racing but its hidden in a complex maze of numbers .....finally though I've condensed everything I've learnt about what is relevant in a handicap race into a mathematical formula that I can apply to any hcap race and best of all the whole thing takes 10-15 mins with a decent calculator and I'm really really happy with the results so far .....races seem to unravel before my eyes even though they look complicated .....I think over the coming months I'm going to have a lot of fun with this and there's nothing to lose ....handicaps are very complex and difficult anyway so anything that can give you an edge in any way has to be good ....beauty is I can rate races at short notice and in quick time so if anyone wants a particular race rated or there's a huge weekend race on the cards I can do it ......today's races I've put up on the forum being 
305 newm  
Al qahwa 
Go far   
255 hay 
Ecclestone  
Taexali 
 
As I'm out to lunch tomorrow if rated a couple of the hcaps tomorrow for anyone's perusal ....
320 curr 
Sors      212
Rattling jewel   211
A few dollars more  207 
 
445 good 
Only two horses appear to figure in this race 
Scottish Glen  270
The warrior    264
 
So onnpaper the formula is saying its between these two 
No prices for tomorrow's racing yet will update later when online but certainly I think tackling the big summer handicaps will be a lot of fun and if anyone wants to post any info ...trends or whatever for a particular race then feel free .....that's what its there for and if it helps get a few winners then all good 

@Xtc12
Yesterdays early tips in time order: (if you need anymore let me know but not a good day overall)
Nap was 3rd at 9/4, 2 out of 3 in the treble once again!!

Day 11
Quick Day at the office: Staking plan was as follows   3, 2,    for a total outlay of 5 Pts
We had 1 winner:
Lightening Dance  2 Pts @ 2\1 returned 6
Total Returns for the day 6 for a day 11 profit of 1 Pt.
Total Profit : 269.07 Pts

Ok, so as you know I produce ratings on every race, every day and although it's been pretty successful its very difficult to cover all of the selections. The other day there was 9 meetings and 67 races! 
We had something like 14 winners but thats also a lot of losers, so how can we narrow down the selections?
I have a theory so i'm going to trial it and see how it goes, I wouldn't recommend anyone follow this just yet.
My personal outlook when trying to pick a winner comes in three simple stages.
1) Horse has to be in good current form coming into the race.
2) Horse has to have the ability/potential to achieve a certain standard for that race.
3) Horse must be consistent enough to think it can produce that standard.
In ratings terms we translate that as follows.
Each horse has a rating for its last 5 outings.
A) Current Form: Must have the highest rating of the field last time out.
B) Potential: Must have the highest individual rating of the field overall in its last 5 runs.
C) Reliability: Must have highest accumulative total over last 5 runs. (at least 10pts clear of next top rated)
Due to needing a reliability factor this will count out the majority of Maiden races due to lack of form to work on. 
Staking
The stakes will be fairly simple, 1pt if a horse is 10pts clear, 2pts if a horse is 20pts clear and so on.
*On average we only get a handful of horses more than say 40pts clear, these are often maiden races where not all of the runners have had enough starts.
I'm not sure how many qualifiers this will throw up, maybe some days a couple and other days none?
 

good luck guys

good luck guys

ive been paper trading doubling up(martingale) for over a month with good results
as i mentioned earlier, i would paper trail for 2 weeks and post the results,and amend/tweak some rules
each way was the only thing i changed, as it made a loss, so it is win only bets
2 losing days(including the ew) with other days profitable from under 1 point up to over 100 pts win deducting all losses
only used punters lounge horse tips, its great they are in time order rather than course order, makes it so easy
always had a winner within 7 bets
miss out on early prices,as your betting one race at a time
you would need several accounts / decent bank
time consuming/overlapping races/too many races
you are relying on pl horse tips(its working well since they started, 10 months profit so far) no reason to fear why it shouldnt) 

Day 6
Well out all day and just finished catching up on the replays. What a disaster which shows the danger of staking plans that increase at Loss. 
The most we had lost at any one time was 141.5 Pts. The closest we came to making a profit was after Zenon won. Another odds on winner would have given us a profit. I am going to state here that we will not have many of these days. 
6 Winners over the whole day. Its going to take me a while to do the staking plan.
Staking plan was as follows  3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, NR, 14, 11, 11, NR, 12, 13, NR, NR, 14, 15, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 17, 18, 15,16    for a total outlay of 391
We had 6 winners
Intrude 14 Pts @ 5\1 returned 84
Zenon 11 Pts @ 10\11 returned 21
Kayflin 15 Pts @ 7\2 returned 67.50
Viking Madness 20 Pts @ 5\2 returned 70
Trafalgar Rock 18 Pts @ 5\2 returned 63
Tell It to Me 16 Pts @ 11\10 returned 33.60
Total Returns for the day 339.10 for a day 6 loss of 51.90 Pts    
Total Profit : 23.67 Pts

Well we don't want many days like that, i don't like making excuses but the ground changed on all three flat meetings in the afternoon and that was where the damage was done. (and the 2yo's let us down again)
4 winners and 5 seconds over the jumps, most jumpers can get through soft ground so the change doesn't affect them so much.
We were unlucky with the treble again, 2 out of 3. Onwards and upwards as they say.

The partnership of Tom George and Adrian Heskin have a very good record at Southwell and they are represented in 3 races this evening. Their 10 races todate have resulted in 6 wins and 7 places for a profit of £11.65 and £12.62 respectively, but it's in the handicaps where all the profits have been made with a record of R3 W3 P3 £10.25 £12.81 and today they are represented in 2 handicaps;
6.35 Smoking Jacket
8.05 Fit The Brief

4.40 Gowran Park Canary Row ( each way )  6/1 Betbright