BillyHills Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Ok, so as you know I produce ratings on every race, every day and although it's been pretty successful its very difficult to cover all of the selections. The other day there was 9 meetings and 67 races! We had something like 14 winners but thats also a lot of losers, so how can we narrow down the selections? I have a theory so i'm going to trial it and see how it goes, I wouldn't recommend anyone follow this just yet. My personal outlook when trying to pick a winner comes in three simple stages. 1) Horse has to be in good current form coming into the race. 2) Horse has to have the ability/potential to achieve a certain standard for that race. 3) Horse must be consistent enough to think it can produce that standard. In ratings terms we translate that as follows. Each horse has a rating for its last 5 outings. A) Current Form: Must have the highest rating of the field last time out. B) Potential: Must have the highest individual rating of the field overall in its last 5 runs. C) Reliability: Must have highest accumulative total over last 5 runs. (at least 10pts clear of next top rated) Due to needing a reliability factor this will count out the majority of Maiden races due to lack of form to work on. Staking The stakes will be fairly simple, 1pt if a horse is 10pts clear, 2pts if a horse is 20pts clear and so on. *On average we only get a handful of horses more than say 40pts clear, these are often maiden races where not all of the runners have had enough starts. I'm not sure how many qualifiers this will throw up, maybe some days a couple and other days none? richard-westwood and corky 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 1 selection today 320 Brighton : Morache Music 16pts clear : 1pt 100/30 Bet365 Best last time out rating, achieved highest rating of any horse during his last 5 runs and has ran close to that mark in three recent races. Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 Loser to start with Saturday 425 Bev: Altharoos (+20) 2pts 5/2 PP 450 Nm: Sufi (+17) 1pt 7/1 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 BH, As you say 9 meetings / 67 races is a lot. I often hear people say: "this is a trappy contest", to which I reply: "well forget that race". I feel there's no harm in putting "no selection" next to a "difficult" race. Keep up the good work. I follow your nap of day a lot ! BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 10, 2017 Author Share Posted June 10, 2017 No luck so far; One for Sunday 4.45 Goodwood : The Warrior (+40) 4pts 9/2 Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snert Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 On 6/9/2017 at 0:22 PM, BillyHills said: Ok, so as you know I produce ratings on every race, every day and although it's been pretty successful its very difficult to cover all of the selections. The other day there was 9 meetings and 67 races! We had something like 14 winners but thats also a lot of losers, so how can we narrow down the selections? I have a theory so i'm going to trial it and see how it goes, I wouldn't recommend anyone follow this just yet. My personal outlook when trying to pick a winner comes in three simple stages. 1) Horse has to be in good current form coming into the race. 2) Horse has to have the ability/potential to achieve a certain standard for that race. 3) Horse must be consistent enough to think it can produce that standard. In ratings terms we translate that as follows. Each horse has a rating for its last 5 outings. A) Current Form: Must have the highest rating of the field last time out. B) Potential: Must have the highest individual rating of the field overall in its last 5 runs. C) Reliability: Must have highest accumulative total over last 5 runs. (at least 10pts clear of next top rated) Due to needing a reliability factor this will count out the majority of Maiden races due to lack of form to work on. Staking The stakes will be fairly simple, 1pt if a horse is 10pts clear, 2pts if a horse is 20pts clear and so on. *On average we only get a handful of horses more than say 40pts clear, these are often maiden races where not all of the runners have had enough starts. I'm not sure how many qualifiers this will throw up, maybe some days a couple and other days none? I agree with your selection criteria 1,2,3 but as you mention in another post - 2yo races are producing poor results I do my own ratings but I don't bother with 2yo races any more because I found that any 2yo could make a sudden improvement without any signs that this was about to happen and completely screw up the form book. I find the same with 3y olds in the early part of the season - I need them to have a couple or three races before I'm happy to trust their rating, most of my bets are with older horses with a fair bit of form. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 12, 2017 Author Share Posted June 12, 2017 415 Br: Zippedeedoodah (+23) 12/5 Bet365 2pts 8.40 Pont: French (+17) 13/2 BetVictor 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 12, 2017 Author Share Posted June 12, 2017 Still looking for a winner!! 3.15 Yar: Favourite Girl (+32) 3pts 4/1 Bet365 6.20 Lin: Daisy Boy (+41) 4pts 9/1 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 4.50 Wor: Saffron Wells (+22) 2pts 2/1 Skybet 8.25 Ham: Dandy Highwayman (+12) 1pt 11/4 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 14, 2017 Author Share Posted June 14, 2017 Quote 8.25 Ham: Dandy Highwayman (+12) 1pt 11/4 Skybet First winner - lowest stake Thursday: 2.55 Fon: Amron Kali (+12) 1pt 4/1 Skybet 3.20 Not: George Bowen (+18) 1pt 7/2 BetVictor corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 Quote 3.20 Not: George Bowen (+18) 1pt 7/2 BetVictor On a roll!! 4.05 York: Queen In Waiting (+20) 2pts 5/1 Bet365 ralphie7 and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 16, 2017 Author Share Posted June 16, 2017 Loser yesterday ____________________ 1.50 Y: Masterpaver (+28) 2pts 11/2 BetVic 7.10 L: Goodwood Crusader (+16) 1pt 9/4 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 Sunday 445 Sal: Aimez La Vie (+46) 4pts 5/1 Skybet 515 Sal: Ashazuri (+11) 1pt 8/1 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 Putting this up early for Monday 345 Wetherby Dark Intention (+16) 1pt 100/30 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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