Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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19 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
When i first did speed figures i had to use index cards, this was very time consuming, with the advent of computerisation it was 1000 x faster especially when sorting the data for each new race. I must admit i loved having all those index cards but they were a bugger to keep sorting and flipping through even though they were alphabetical to the name of the horse.
I used to have a card index file for 3 mile chasers but even with such a specific group of horses it pretty quickly got out of hand. The problem in the olden days was that the Weekender or Sporting Life, later The Post, would only give you up to 3 previous runs in the form. If you wanted to know more than that you had to collect the weekly results pull out from the Raceform Weekly ?
I became self employed in 1996 so gave up betting and racing for the next 12 years ........ when I came back to it I couldn't believe the amount of stuff available on the internet as regards form. Everything was so much easier and complete
Unfortunately though I was never computer literate enough to get into all the data management ..... I'd never used a computer at all until I was about 4 years into self-employment when I thought I'd better take the plunge or I'd soon be Un-employed rather than self-employed. So I only learned how to do what I needed to do for work
I'm still a pen and paper chap for keeping records of speed figures etc
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I think most people would say that the enjoyment is in finding winners, studying the form, having opinions, trying to get value,
It's like doing crossword puzzles ...... the fun is in working out the clues and finishing it (the equivalent of finding the winner)
If someone just read out the answers to the crossword and you filled the squares in, you'd soon get bored with that !
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Good luck with that @MCLARKE
To be honest I've never considered compiling my own race times. Being very much a 'pen and paper' guy it would just take me too much time.
I think it would be fairly easy for me to become 'someone who compiles speed ratings' rather than 'someone who uses speed ratings to help find winners' ! ......... so I'm quite happy sticking to the winter AW and having the summer off !
I'm still toying with the idea of rating the top race days ......... maybe days with Group Races on the card but I'll see how that goes
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7 hours ago, Trotter said:
+412.61
MR 2.00 - Zara's Universe 5/2
MR 3.30 - Flintara 11/4
Hay 3.50 - Ali Star Bert 9/2
MR 4.05 - Woodie Flash 3/1 (WON 7/2)
MR 5.15 - Double Powerful 5/4 (WON)prices skybet
10 x £2 doubles
one winning double ......
today +0.25 (25p is better than losing !)
month +412.86
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MR 3.30 - Flintara - win at 10/3 wm hill
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I wouldn't bother with speed ratings for Jump races to be honest ......... the final time would be so dependant on the pace of the race that they would be meaningless. The same applies to an extent on the flat as well but over much shorter distances the relative importance is less
I guess speed figures should be most useful over sprint trips on the flat
An analogy with human athletes ........... 100 metre races are run pretty flat out so 'time' is the most important factor in who should win ...... just who runs the fastest !
But over 1500 metres you also have race tactics, pace ..... will it be a slow run race to suit the athlete with a finishing kick or will some competitors set a fast pace to draw the sting out of the fast finishers
The longer the horse race you'd expect the race pace and tactics to be more important relative to pure speed
The way I look at speed figures is that all horses can run slow but not all horses can run fast ......... high speed figs indicate horses that can run fast relative to other horses and they'll always have an advantage because it opens up all the race tactics if you know you can run faster than the opponents (I can see the value of sectional times here to identify horses who can run the last couple of furlongs really fast)
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Thanks @AzertyuiopFan for taking the time and effort to put your thoughts to paper in such a comprehensive set of posts !
If we were to consider radical ideas for the Festival I'd be looking at dropping most of the handicaps. They could be spread out over Feb, March, April at the weekends at other tracks .... why not Sundays ?. Have a big top level handicap at Sunday meetings. Certainly I'd be dropping the novice and juvenile handicaps.
The exception could be the Mares races, I agree with your thoughts on making them handicaps. The fact that we tend to get horses who win the race 3, 4, 5 times in a row suggests something needs to be done to make them more competitive ,...... and to encourage top Mares into the Champion Hurdle
I quite like the idea of the penalty structure for the intermediate distances but if you make the races for specialists at those trips you might as well keep them as grade ones ?. I suppose the powers that be would argue that grade one races should be level weights though which might scupper the idea of keeping them as grade one races but with penalties related to distance. So making them Grade 2 races looks like a good compromise.
Definitely dump the Cross Country ...... I never watch it anyway
The National Hunt Chase is, I guess, what Cheltenham used to be about ....... a gathering of the Country Folk and Landed Aristocracy and the main event would be their sons riding their horses against each other.
I suppose the main factor though is 4 days ........ shame we can't go back to 3 days but obviously it's now impossible
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7 hours ago, Trotter said:
+302.61
Wet 2.45 - Raffles Wonder 10/11
Exe 3.00 - Stormy Flight 3/1 (WON)
Exe 3.30 - Feivel 4/1 (WON)
Wet 3.45 - Lord of Kerak 7/1
Exe 4.00 - Lightonthewing 4/1 (WON)prices skybet
10 x £2 doubles
3 winners - 3 winning doubles
today + 110.00
month +412.61
- LEE-GRAYS, MCLARKE and Nigwilliam
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I quite like the look of My Last Oscar in the 2.00 at Exeter. With just the 8 runners he looks a decent EW shot with 3 places
Very lightly raced with only 15 outings in four and a half years but he has managed to win 3 races, Heavy ground holds no fears and he won in December at a stiff track over 3 miles on heavy ground so trip, track and conditions should be fine.
My Last Oscar 10/1 EW wm hill
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Exe 3.00 - Stormy Flight - win at 4/1 bet365
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+302.61
Wet 2.45 - Raffles Wonder 10/11
Exe 3.00 - Stormy Flight 3/1
Exe 3.30 - Feivel 4/1
Wet 3.45 - Lord of Kerak 7/1
Exe 4.00 - Lightonthewing 4/1prices skybet
10 x £2 doubles
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8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
One thing i will say before everyone starts hacking away at producing speed figures is this. Lets say for the sake of argument that speed figures are 30% accurate for graded races, then i can tell you that for handicaps it would be 8%. So if you want to maximise your time the pool of horses in the group/graded races is very manageable.
Bear in mind there are 14,000 horse in training (jumps and flat) just in Britain.
As to your AW suggestion i am guessing but there maybe more aw runners than turf nowadays which is a big number but serves you 12 months of the year.
I do find 'problems' with every attempt to find a sub-set of the horse population to concentrate on
For grade races you'll always find runners that have been running in maidens, handicaps, conditions & listed races, in Ireland, in France ....... horses that you have no ratings for unless you rate every meeting which I'd find impossible
My main focus has always been the Winter AW ...... say October to March. The horses that run there are not running anywhere else so you can be pretty confident of having the full picture for those 6 months
(My usual practice is to rate the meetings day by day and store the winners rating which I can refer back to and take lengths off for the beaten horses ratings. I don't start to rate the race I'm looking 'today' from scratch)
this is how I store my ratings on a text document -
24/10 Wolv (hcap par 85, F7) - Vespasian 100 (6f c4), Triggered 97 (7f c5), Intoxicata 89 (7f c6), Bankrupt 89 (5f c6), Hannah's Return 88 (7f c6), Master of Combat 88 (9f c5), Elliott 87 (5f c5 2yo), Winterfair 78 (8f c5 2yo), Serengeti Sunrise 70 (7f c5 2yo)
Hcap par figure is the expected average figure that should be run in the meeting's handicaps according to the class of horse. I only use handicaps for compiling allowances which I then apply to the other races on the card.
F7 ------- this is my going allowance. In this case I reckon the track is riding Fast and on average the horses are running 7 lengths per mile faster than expected for horses of this class. So I take 7 points off the raw rating.
Horses name and rating ...... then in brackets the distance, class of race and if it's a 2yo
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14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I'll have to dust off my Mordin On Time book !
I seem to recall that he concluded extra weight can slow down fast horses but not speed up slow horses
I've got that book as well ......... I think it was Mordin that first got me interested in speed figures. I think he used to do a column in The Weekender ? ........ late 80s, early 90s maybe
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9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
The first big question
Do we adjust for weight !
personally I don't ........
I can see the argument for doing it to get more precise figures but I reckon you can take that into account when assessing a race...... if you have a couple of horses that look around the same level and one is carrying a stone less than the other today then it's got an advantage. But in practise I don't even take account of the weight carried in the race I'm looking at to make a selection. I tend to stick to handicaps and let the handicapper do his job and conveniently group together horses that are in the same ballpark to run in handicap races
With all the chaos involved in a horse race and all the factors which affect the final time....... class, field size, going, wind, pace of race etc ....... I reckon a few pounds here or there are probably not too relevant
Obviously I can see why people would be attracted to trying to get figures to the nearest pound but I never have taken weight into account.
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I feel a bit obliged to do some more speed ratings now ! ....... 😜
I think I'll do the Doncaster meeting at the weekend in case I decide to compile ratings for all the main meetings which I have to say is a bit unlikely as the season gets underway ........ too much racing !
....... and maybe any Irish flat meetings this week just in case I decide to concentrate on the much more manageable Irish flat season with it's much lower number of meetings
Over the winter, say October to March,. the AW is ideal ......... but not much point starting that now
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7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Good idea with a separate spread, I know @Zilzalianproduces his own speed ratings.
Out of interest, where do you get the winning times from ?
Just the Racing Post and I use their standard times
I think the 'art' in the process comes from working out allowances ...... as for race times the Post has a huge database so their times should be as good as any and as long as you use the same set of times all the time it doesn't really matter ....... it's not absolute figures that matter it's relative figures between horses !
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Just now, MCLARKE said:
Speed figures are on my to do list. I think I'll start with the all weather, should be simpler than the turf.
that's true ! ...... I usually do AW when I bother with them
In fact I did do AW speed ratings for a good 3 or 4 years a few years ago and found it a good basis for assessing races. It's OK over the winter but during the summer horses flit between AW and Turf so you never have the full picture of how they're running from race to race. The main problem is that there is far too much racing ...... it would be a full time job to rate all races. It might be practical to do it for Irish racing where they have a lot fewer meetings
If you do fancy a crack at compiling your own ratings it might be an idea to have a separate thread where all the speed ratings posts can be grouped together ..... it's a topic that crops up every now and then but the posts get lost in the daily threads
- The Equaliser and Zilzalian
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I don't think there's any way I'm going to keep this up but thought I'd do some speed figures for todays Curragh meeting. I'd like to do ratings for every meeting that includes a Group race but I don't imagine I will .... It'll soon become a chore that I give up on
Here's the ratings of todays winners - highest to lowest
Procrastinate 102,
Real Force 101,
Brilliant 98,
Money Dancer 93,
Arizona Blaze (2) 90,
Chazzesmee 90,
Merisi Diamond 88,
Global Energy 83This was run on Heavy ground and my going allowance was 88 ...... so the bulk of all the above figures is going allowance
eg Procrastinate ran a figure of 14 then got his 88 going allowance added on
note that my ratings are in lengths per mile ...... so Procrastinate would be 18 lengths per mile quicker than Global Energy ....... in a mile race I'd expect him to beat him by 18 lengths
- MCLARKE and The Equaliser
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4 hours ago, Trotter said:
the 1.35 - the first two year old race of the season which despite being so early has a decent record of throwing up some decent horses who will feature in group races as the season progresses
Quite an impressive winner of the first 2yo race of the season
Arizona Blaze- won by 1.25L with another 5L back to the 3rd. The same trainer won the race last year with Bucanero Fuerte who went on to win group two and group one races later in the season
One to note !
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
With some bookies offering 6 places you might make a profit with that pin !
I've had a pin-stick and come up with a couple of EW shots ....
Joe Masseria 25/1 (Laddies)
Smooth Tom (14/1 (wm hill)- azzybear, The Equaliser and MCLARKE
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Naps - Thursday 21st March
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
4.45 Lud - Queshi Bridge - win at 9/4 bet365