Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Kempton 17/11/08 Nice one fin..........all the way winner, no danger ! :nana
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Monday 17/11/08
Grrrrrrr............pulled up before half way, went off as favourite as well......:wall I do love watching the jumps, but I can't pick winners for toffee........ Think I'll have to look at the all-weather..........:loonLeicester 1.20 - Natoumba - Win -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Monday 17/11/08 Leicester 1.20 - Natoumba - Win Looks a poor race This one has been in the first 3 on 5 occasions from it's 10 runs and has at least won a race Ran OK, 3rd, at towcester last time, which is a similar track to Leicester, RH with an uphill finish. That was it's chase debut and seasonal reappearance, might come on a bit for the run Main thing - it acts on good and good to firm ground whereas it's main market rival, Pop Ahead, appears to prefer the soft.
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Re: Fontwell ~ Sun 16/11/08 Well done Tipster..........that's a good days work ! :ok
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Re: Fontwell ~ Sun 16/11/08
First 3 in that race........20/1, 33/1 and 66/1........ Wonder what the tricast will pay ?...........:unsure14:40 - Donaldson Was well fancied last time out at Cheltenham but pulled up that day, Comes here dropping down to a class 3, Don't know much about the jockey on board today, He is claiming 7 and won on this horse a few runs ago at this track and over this distance, Worth a little e/w bet 3pts e/w @ 12/1 Stan James (BOG) -
Re: Course Form at Cheltenham
Sporting life sasy Lindeman was CD winner Trotter' date=' is this incorrect?[/quote'] Strictly speaking it is incorrect.........he won on the 'other course'.......New Course or Old Course (the one they use in March/April) and that was 2 miles 1 Furlong whereas today's course is 2 miles and half a furlong....... So, although it's at Cheltenham, it's not the same distance....... On the more general point, the 'Life' is a bit loose and free with it's CD tags..........for example a horse running in a two mile Flat race at catterick would be shown as CD if it had won a 2 mile hurdle or 2 mile chase at catterick........the Post is much more precise about what counts as CD..........:ok -
Re: Course Form at Cheltenham Taken 'Motorway' out of the list as it's a now a non runner.........
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Re: Course Form at Cheltenham It's always something I keep my eye on...............Todays qualifiers........ 1.10 - None 1.45 CD - Moon Over Miami, Tramantano C - Calatagan 2.20 C - Pigeon Island, Aigle D'or, Silver Jaro, Squadron 2.55 - None 3.30 CD - Dragon Eye 4.00 C - Lindeman Let's see how they go !.............
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Re: Best bet of the day ~ Sat 15th Nov Cheltenham 2.35 - Fleet Street - EW Yard in terrific form though this one appears to be the second string Goes best fresh, good 'first time out' record, has run well here before (4th in the Jewsons at the festival). Although 9 years old, he's lightly raced Hold up horse, the race should be run to suit with lots of front runners - can see the contenders all coming from off the pace. I wonder if Geraghty has chosen Barbers Shop because it's the Queen's horse...........I suspect it might be 'bad manners' not to ride a Queen's horse if you get the chance............just a thought as to why Fleet Street is considered 'second string'............:lol
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Re: Probably the best Scoop 6 preview in the world... Thanks Mabbs........that's a good read..........:ok
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Re: Paddy Power Gold Cup ~ 2008 Had a good look at this race........ First off I decided that I want something fairly lightly raced which might be ahead of the handicapper and I decided ( on a whim ) that under 20 career runs for a chaser was about right to qualify for 'lightly raced' This left me a short list of....... Barbers Shop Bible Lord Don't Push It Fleet Street Imperial Commander Maljimar Ouzbeck Piraya Private Be Silverburn I've elimated them as follows....... Bible Lord - doesn't look up to this class, well beaten both runs in class 1 races, beaten 8 and 28 lengths on only 2 runs at Cheltenham Don't Push It - has fallen last 2 times here but does go well first time out. Couldn't trust it to put in a clear round in a big field at a hectic pace. Imperial Commander - goes well fresh, loves Cheltenham, but is better front running in small fields. Won't get the race to suit him today with lots of front runners lining up Ouzbeck - won here over CD a couple of weeks ago, but he was race fit after a summer campaign and has gone up a lot (11 lbs) in the weights after that race. Ground might be against him today. Probably has a chance, maybe I'm being harsh but I just reckon he's racked up a few wins in 'easy' races in mid-summer and now the big boys are coming out to play.......... Piraya - heavy ground winner in France, but he's lost his last 3 or 4 races over there, You'd think he'd have won French races if he had a chance here.......:unsure Unknown quantity Private Be - Cheltenham record - 4 runs, Brought Down, Beaten 32 lengths (this race last year), Pulled Up, Beaten 8 lengths. Doesn't inspire confidence. Silverburn - I have a natural antipathy to Nicholl hot-pots because almost by definition, they're terrible 'value' with all the Saturday afternoon Yankee Merchants (like me !) piling on...........this one doesn't stand out as 'favourite material'. He's only won one of four chase runs and that was a five runner affair with two rags, The Market Man and Wee Robbie. Beaten 5 and 11 lengths on his only 2 runs at Cheltenham Having eliminated them I've got a Super-Short List of.... Barbers Shop Fleet Street Maljimar Maljimar goes well fresh, goes well here, goes well in big fields, has won on good to soft, has won in class 1. I'm eliminating him on the basis that he's 'unseated rider' twice in his last four runs and his trainer is not in good form. That leaves the Henderson pair, Barber Shop and Fleet Street. Geraghty has chosen Barber Shop but earlier in the week there was a doubt over the horse's participation and I'm wondering if he's 100%......... I'd back both against the field but have a feeling that Fleet Street might cause an upset.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 14/11/08 Kempton 8.20 - Multakka - Win It's all weather record is 32111.....including a CD win......progressive lightly raced type. This is only his 6th run in the last 2 years Up 6 lbs for it's last win and up in grade from class 4 to class 2 would normally put you off, but this fellow might be better suited by the faster pace of class 2 handicaps........met trouble in running plodding along amongst the class 4 types last time........ Has a good turn of foot He's a Sheik Hamdan horse ( I thought he was dead........:unsure )
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Re: Sole CD Winners - Handicaps Only 2 for tomorrow Sat 15/11/08 Cheltenham 3.10 - Diablo Wetherby 2.20 - Cute N You Know It
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Re: Sole CD Winners - Handicaps Four losers, tho' 2 were placed at 9/1 and 14/1.......... Still waiting for that big winner......... Bets - 20 Winners - 2 Losers - 18 P/L - (6.12)
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Re: Congratulations to Softie / Golan Way Well done Softie and all connections........... What a terrifically game winner..........it's not often you see them go out front running, get a 10 length lead, get caught near the finish then rally back and win......... Big hearted horse............the kind you want on your side.........:ok
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Re: Southwell 14/11/08
Great stuff Billy............:clap Mrs Bun romps home at a massive 14/1..............I'm sure it was only 4/1 this morning when I looked..........:loon Perhaps it's my eyesight...........:unsureMrs Bun 40% of stake Kirkie 40% of stake Betteras Bertie 20% of stake -
Re: Southwell 14/11/08 Good to see you back in 'write up' form, billy ! I'll certainly have a look at that race tomorrow ! :clap
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Re: Sole CD Winners - Handicaps Four for tomorrow.......... Unfortunately they all look like complete outsiders but maybe this is where I get the 25/1 winner that I'm expecting on a daily basis.........:unsure Fri 14/11/08 Newcastle 2.00 - Almire Du Lia Southwell 12.10 - Solicitude Southwell 2.15 - Ugenius Southwell 3.25 Tykie Two
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Re: Great Leighs (eve) 13/11 Mutamared..........:unsure It's all 'random'............:unsure
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Re: Sole CD Winners - Handicaps 3 losers and 1 winner, Mickmacmagoole won at 15/8.......... Bets - 16 Winners - 2 Losers - 14 P/L - (2.12)
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Re: Great Leighs (eve) 13/11 6.50 - Tanley - EW Along with Wreningham represents the three year olds. Tanley won here three runs ago but after a couple of poor runs on soft and heavy ground at Nottingham is back running off a lower handicap mark today than when winning here in October. Must have a chance if repeating that earlier effort.
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Re: Great Leighs (eve) 13/11 7.50.........looked at the race before I read this thread..........but I've gotta join the Mutamared bandwagon.........:tongue2 At the moment 'current prices' on the Life are showing Orpenminded at 15/8 and Mutamared at 2/1..........that seems crazy ! Both horses are obviously running in claimers because their handicap marks are too high to give them a chance in handicaps......... Mutamared hasn't won a handicap for 2 years and that was off 98........a dozen defeats later, he's still on 97. Come on handicapper, give the old boy a chance ! Last handicap race was here, over todays CD, he was 3rd, beaten a length and a bit off 97........you'd have to say that was his best performance for over a year and he might have won that race off 93/94......... Orpenminded is still a maiden and regularly gets beat in handicaps off a mark of 90/91/92..........gets beat 2/3 lengths........so you'd have him as an 'early 80s' horse, I reckon Mutamared has a good 10lbs in hand and he's a CD winner........ Course, something else will probably come and beat them both.........:unsure
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Thu 13/11/08 Ludlow 2.00 - Ferimon - Win Topweight and only CD winner in the field. Has a good career record with 5 wins and 5 places from 18 career starts. Nine years old, so he's been pretty lightly raced Seasonal debut, so you've got to hope he's fit, he ran second in this race last year on seasonal debut then won next time out, so there's a danger they might be using this as a 'prep' race............Mmm, I'm talking myself out of picking him !............:loon But I'll stick with him.............:hope
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Re: Sole CD Winners - Handicaps Both lost......... Bets - 12 Winners - 1 Losers - 11 P/L - (1.00) Four selections for tomorrow....... Thursday 13/11/08 Ludlow 2.00 - Ferimon Taunton 1.10 - Mickmacmagoole Taunton 3.10 - Arthurs Dream Taunton 3.40 - Alcatras
Best bet of the day - Tue 18th Nov
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Best bet of the day - Tue 18th Nov 2.50 Southwell - Classical Rhythm - EW Having decided to have a look at the All Weather I picked this race and studied it for hours As usual I came to the conclusion that every one of them might win.........yet none of them could win. That always happens when I spend too long on one race !.............:loon I'm going for the outsider of the 9 runners He's quite well in on his best form having won a race off 62 and now running off 57. The key to this horse is the ground..........according to Racing Post ratings his best 3 runs have been the 3 times he's encountered good to soft ground. He always runs a stinker on good or firm ground. This is his first run at Southwell and i expect he'll love it. He's a front runner and has first time blinkers so the tactics are pretty obvious - they're going to try and make all. As it happens this race is jam packed with front runners and prominant runners so it could be run at a furious pace ( well, as fast as class 5 handicappers can go ! ) My fellow has been running over 10 furlongs, so he shouldn't be stopping at the end of the race. And they do say that it's difficult to come from behind at Southwell because the ground rides 'soft' so the others might not pick him up if he gets to the front. That's the theory ! Of the others - There's the favourite, Crystal Crown, a horse sent over by Wachman from Ireland which has had just 3 starts in 2 years and could be anything. Still a maiden Several are handicapped about right, ie at around a mark they have won off before - Dado Mush, Avertis, Top Jaro and Ocean Legend. Any of these could win if they reproduce their best form. Realt Na Mara is handicapped 6 lbs higher than his best winning mark, but he's stepping up from sprinting and could win if that brings improvement. The field is completed by 2 other lightly raced types, Mooted and Brigydon, both of which have been well beaten in handicaps after maybe being assessed too high after maiden runs, but are dropping down the weights and it's a case of 'have they reached their level yet' ?..........I don't think either of them have, but they've only run 4 or 5 times and could be improving.