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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    best bet of the day 28/7/09

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: best bet of the day 28/7/09 Goodwood - 2.10 - Blythe Knight - EW Old timer, 9 years old, but I don't think he's over the hill just yet. It's only a year ago that he was winning the group 3 Diomed at Epsom and a Listed race at Chester. With his performances in group races he never had much chance in handicaps with a rating of 105-110 for most of the last 2 years - just slipping back now under a 100 which gives him a fighting chance if he retains his ability Seems to reserve his best these days for tight turning and undulating tracks, perhaps he just gets outpaced on flat galloping tracks.- his last few wins have been at Epsom and Chester. Apart from Royal Destination there doesn't appear to be a whole bunch of unexposed types in this race so it looks right for a well handicapped older horse Trainer in decent form with over 50% win or place from 25 runners in the last couple of weeks.

    Glorious Goodwood (Day 1)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Glorious Goodwood (Day 1) 2.10 - Blythe Knight - EW Old timer, 9 years old, but I don't think he's over the hill just yet. It's only a year ago that he was winning the group 3 Diomed at Epsom and a Listed race at Chester. With his performances in group races he never had much chance in handicaps with a rating of 105-110 for most of the last 2 years - just slipping back now under a 100 which gives him a fighting chance if he retains his ability Seems to reserve his best these days for tight turning and undulating tracks, perhaps he just gets outpaced on flat galloping tracks.- his last few wins have been at Epsom and Chester. Apart from Royal Destination there doesn't appear to be a whole bunch of unexposed types in this race so it looks right for a well handicapped older horse Trainer in decent form with over 50% win or place from 25 runners in the last couple of weeks.

    Had an idea......

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Had an idea...... Thanks for the positive feedback ! Since i posted the thread I've been having a trial run at concentrating on the Irish racing and it's certainly less stressful with basically one meeting a day to look at ............:lol I've had a go at doing my own speed ratings, I think the best I can say is that it's a work in progress........I expect anyone who's ever tried to compile speed figs knows the problems ! And to date all the racing I've looked at has pretty much been on heavy ground - one true run race and a few crawls and you gets figs showing a handicapper as the next Sea of Stars and group racers as no better than selling platers. Think I'll wait for some decent ground before trying this out again. Also you do get what appears to be some strange things - mixed meetings seem a lot more common. Ballinrobe had 2 days racing last week with about 7 flat races, 6 of which were over 9 furlongs !.........:loon

    CD Winners - Again !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: CD Winners - Again ! Lots of qualifiers for Tuesday.......... Bev 4.55 -Honimiere Bev 5.30 - General Tufto Bev 6.00 - Shaylee Gal 6.25 - My Valley Gal 8.10 - Senators Alibi Good 4.35 - Yes Mr President Perth 7.40 - Paperchaser Perth 8.45 - Ngong Hills Worc 5.40 - Tanmeya Worc 8.20 - Barneys Mate

    CD Winners - Again !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: CD Winners - Again ! One winner out of the two......... Hollow Green won 5/2 Today - Stakes 2, P/L +1.50 Totals so far..... Stakes - 19 ( 5 winners to date at 7/2, 5/2, 2/1, 4/1 and 5/2) P/L - + 0.50 Still waiting for that unexpected 'big one' to bump up the profits. Thought it was coming tonight when Miss Chamanda took the lead a furlong out at 20/1, but was overhauled and finished 3rd

    CD Winners - Again !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: CD Winners - Again !

    3 qualifiers for Sunday...... Curr 2.10 - Silver Tide Pont 2.40 - Master Nimbus Pont 5.30 - Comptonspirit
    Grr...........first day without a winner, oh well I suppose it had to happen sometime..........:lol Today - Stakes 3 - P/L (-3) Totals Stakes - 17 P/L - (-1)

    Best bet of the Day - Saturday 25/7/09

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the Day - Saturday 25/7/09 York 3.45 - Pusey Street Lady - 1 pt EW Banker Drops back into handicap company after running in group and listed races all season. Has not been disgraced either - 2nd in the cammidge, 2nd in the cecil frail, 3rd in the chipchase Her worst run was a 6th in a listed race at bath, but that was over 5 furlongs and she seems better at 6F as she likes to come with a late run from behind the field. Last time out was 5th behind a couple of likely group one types in Serious Attitude and Lesson in Humility Seems to act on any going and is drawn in the middle so can go wherever the pace is

    CD Winners - Again !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: CD Winners - Again !

    Friday selections - Asc 4.25 - Alanbrooke Chep 8.55 - Solemn Newm 5.40 - Iceman George South 3.25 - Toulouse Express Wex 7.05 - Cylindar Rattle
    Phew ........had to wait all day for a winner......... Solemn won 2/1 Iceman George was a noin runner Today - Stakes 4 - P/L (-1) Total to date Stakes - 10 P/L - +1

    CD Winners - Again !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: CD Winners - Again !

    Todays selections - Bath 4.40 - Mythical Blue Donc 7.20 - Russian Spirit Donc 8.55 - Amazing Blue Sky Leop 7.30 - Capall An Ibre Leop 8.30 - Raise Your Heart Sand 2.45 - Sharpened Edge
    Not a bad start.........2 winners Mythical Blue won 7/2 Amazing Blue Sky won 5/2 Stakes - 6 P/L - +2

    CD Winners - Again !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: CD Winners - Again ! Todays selections - Bath 4.40 - Mythical Blue Donc 7.20 - Russian Spirit Donc 8.55 - Amazing Blue Sky Leop 7.30 - Capall An Ibre Leop 8.30 - Raise Your Heart Sand 2.45 - Sharpened Edge For the purpose of the paper trail, I'll just stick to 1 point Win at SP. Stakes - 6 points.

    CD Winners - Again !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I'm sure there must be something in the CD winner system, but it's a case of getting your 'filters' right ! I'm going to have another go !...........:lol So ........some filters 1 Handicap races only. The idea is that all the runners will be of approximately the same ability so a CD win could reflect an edge. In non handicaps the range of ability could be huge and a CD win might be at a much lower level than todays race. 2 One qualifier only in a race. I want to avoid those low grade handicaps on the AW where half the field have won over CD as the same horses keep running against each other. Not much efge in being a CD winner if there are 4 or 5 in a race. 3 CD win must be within the last 12 months. Again this is where I fell down last time as it was during the winter and I was including old chasers who's clocked a CD win 5 years ago and hadn't won since. ! I'm using the Post definition of a CD winner which is a bit 'tighter' than the Life - the Life for example would include a 16 furlong hudle win as a 'CD' even if todays race was a 16 furlong chase or a 16 furlong Flat race

    Best bet of the day 22nd July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day 22nd July Naas - 8.00 - Seatantach - win This is a conditions race with 2 horses, Drumbeat and Firey Red, coming down from group races and the selection coming up from handicaps. Might be worth taking a chance on the handicapper who's a CD winner and in good form with 2 wins on the trot. I've seen the last win and he looks pretty tough - he made all and stretched clear when they came to the last couple of furlongs Drumbeat looks a bit tricky after running in some top group one races. Might have done him for the season. And he probably wants further than a mile Firey Red has disappointed me 'cos I thought she'd win her last race, a group 3, but she was fairly well beaten and has been off the track for 2 months. Might be that she's best fresh in which case she'd take all the beating

    Naas - July 22nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Naas - July 22nd 9.00 - Dane Blue - EW Another CD winner Ran in a handicap at tipperary a few days ago over 7F, ran on well at the finish and just failed to grab 3rd place. Back over a mile on a stiff track should suit him. That race at tipperary was won in a very fast time and looks like it could be decent handicap form.

    Naas - July 22nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Naas - July 22nd 8.00 - Seatantach - win This is a conditions race with 2 horses, Drumbeat and Firey Red, coming down from group races and the selection coming up from handicaps. Might be worth taking a chance on the handicapper who's a CD winner and in good form with 2 wins on the trot. I've seen the last win and he looks pretty tough - he made all and stretched clear when they came to the last couple of furlongs Drumbeat looks a bit tricky after running in some top group one races. Might have done him for the season. And he probably wants further than a mile Firey Red has disappointed me 'cos I thought she'd win her last race, a group 3, but she was fairly well beaten and has been off the track for 2 months. Might be that she's best fresh in which case she'd take all the beating.

    Karl Burke

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Big story breaking............ Karl Burke has been disqualifed for 12 months after a plea bargain relating to various charges.........including supplying information to betfair layers........ Burke trains Lord Shanakill, Lesson In Humility and lots of other big horses........

    Racing Post weights help?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Racing Post weights help?

    So Paddy Bear looks well in there rated 3lb's off the top weight but carrying 11lb's less.
    Well........you've also got to take Weight For Age into account as Paddy is a 3 year old and the top horse is older WFA over this trip at this time of year is 5lbs that 3YO get from older horses So.......taking that into account you'd say he was only 6lbs lower in the weights And if you look at Dream Express........Pady is rated 2 lbs lower and with his 5 lbs WFA he should be carrying 7lbs less than Dream Express in a handicap race...........but he's only carrying 5lb less. So he's not 'well in' with that one
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