Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Best bet of the day 2nd July Sandown 4.00 - Stotsfold - win at 4/1 BOG with Bet365 Grand old campaigner who looked as good as ever winning a group 3 over this CD a few weeks ago Drops to Listed class and carries a penalty today, but he always goes well here - has finished close up in an Eclipse - and loves this track Got doubts about the ones ahead of him the market - Confront get the trip ?. Prince Seigfried wants cut in the ground ? - so I'll take him to confirm his course form at this lower level
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Re: Lay of the Day 2nd July Sandown 4.00 - Confront - lay always dangerous to lay a 'Sir Michael' older horse but I don't think this one gets the 10 furlong trip He won at 9F when running in handicaps but since he stepped up to pattern races he's looked best at 7/8 furlongs Ran in this race last year and was well beat, looking as if he didn't stay. Pretty big field for one of these races this year and likely to be a decent gallop on, so any stamina doubts should be exposed.
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Re: 3 yr olds vs Elders Glen Shiel (3YO, Johnston) went off fave for an all aged handicap over 7F at epsom tonight and was unplaced Maybe 7F is a good cut off point ?
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Re: Levy Board Cuts From a purely selfish point of view I'd love to see a four or five month summer break in all weather racing......... After 6 months of intensive study over the winter, I need a break ! But because i keep various records on AW racing, I've got to carry on right through the summer to be ready for the 'off' in November......... It's a right tricky one though..........if you take Wolverhampton, they seem pretty successful. They're running a business and need punters in during the summer to keep the business ticking over and they usually have big fields for small prize money, so it seems like there's plenty of trainers and owners want to run there. They seem to get decent crowds and apparently the restaurant there does a roaring trade. Southall, on the other hand, seems to be usually deserted Could the BHA reduce the 'Levy Board Fixtures' but then leave it up to each track to put on 'Non Levy Board Fixtures' if they want to , ie they don't get LB money, but have to get sponsorship etc and put up the prize money themselves. Would that ever be economical for a track like Wolves ? Southall probably couldn't do it.
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Re: 3 yr olds vs Elders
I like to try and think of analogies from human athletics when thinking about these questions.......... If you look at 100 metre runners they're usually big lads with lots of muscles. With a few exceptions, they also tend to be at their peak in their mid to late 20s. I suppose they need 10 years of training to build up the muscle and power. If you think of a 3yo sprinter in early season as being the equivalent of a 17/18 year old youth.........well, they're going to get outpowered by big mature sprinters, and a few pounds in weight ain't gonna make much difference. (assuming they're all running within their class) Over longer distances human athletes tend to be smaller and thinner, and the difference between say an 18 year old and a 28 year old might not be that marked in a physical sense...........and an 18 year old is more likely to be competitive against older athletes because he's already at the 'optimum' physique, he doesn't need 10 years of training to build up bulk and muscles. I reckon the same applies to horses running over longer trips - it's not the size, bulk and muscles that count. .......theregfore the younger horses are at less of a disadvantage. Plus, of course.........a 3YO sprinter is quite likely to have had 10 runs as a two year old and 3 or 4 more at 3yo before he runs in all aged handicaps, therefore likely to be more exposed. A 12 furlong 3 year old might only have run once or twice at 2 at the back end of the season and probably not had many runs by the time they tackle the older horses, so could be less exposed and more open to improvement.Thats interesting that, is it more to do with physical condition/size of the horse? I'm guessing somebody on here will be clued up on it all. -
Re: Lay of the day 1st July Epsom 7.55 - Glen Shiel - lay Fave for the 7F handicap Hasn't run at 7F before and his previous wins have been on flat tracks, so there's doubts over course and distance. Has gone up another pound in the weights for being beaten over 2 lengths last time out
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Re: Best bet of the day 1st July Epsom 7.55 - My kingdom - win at 9/2 BOG with Laddies. This looks to be between the top 3 in the market, two last time out winners and the mark Johnston three year old. I'm going for my kingdom because he goes particularly wel on undulating tracks (has run well here and won at brighton and goodwood) and he won with something in hand last time out. A 4lb rise in the weights seems fair enough Space station had to be ridden out to win and has gone up 5lb Glen Shiel is unprovan at the trip and has gone up in the weights for finishing a fairly well beaten second last time.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ June Well done mileni...........:clap ........and the other guys who finished in profit...........:clap Thanks for the admin, BH..........:ok As you say, BH........I've been trying to get some big price ones, but I might have a change of tactics next month. the long losing runs get me down.........:tongue2..........think I'll just try and pick more winners and up my pretty poor strike rate..........
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ June Well done barni.........:clap and BH and fin for finishing in profit............:clap Thanks for the admin, BH..............:ok Seemed like a tough old month for a few of us..........glad it's behind us !...........:tongue2
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Re: Lay of the Day - June 30
Grrrrrrr...........and my 40/1 EW shot on BBotD finished 4th :wall What a useless race !shame on me. it won. -
Re: Lay of the Day - June 30 6.20 Kemp - Boogie waltzer - lay Been in good form lately and is second fave here He was 'all out' to win off a mark of 67 a couple of runs ago and won by a neck or head. Gone up another couple of pounds but also doesn't have the 7lb claimer tonight, so effectively 9 lbs higher. Of couse, having Ryan Moore up might be worth a few pounds........:loon Looking a bit exposed after 16 runs, a few more lightly raced types in the field with potential to be improvers.
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Re: Best bet of the day 30th June 7.50 Frameit - EW at 40/1 with Sportingbet Big odds on this one as he is as low as 14/1 with Bet365. Won a seller over 12F at Ling last time out and scored a better speed rating than todays odds on favourite over the same CD in a handicap. He looked OK winning that seller and this is a poor handicap The odds on favourite looks progressive and will probably win, but at 40/1 i reckon this one has place claims at least ! We know he's in form, he's won a race (which most of these haven't) and Selling form is often under-rated in low grade handicaps.
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Re: Kempton 30th June (AW) (eve) 7.50 Frameit - EW at 33/1 BOG with Victor chandler Big odds with a couple of firms on this one as he is as low as 14/1 with another firm. Won a seller over 12F at Ling last time out and scored a better speed rating than todays odds on favourite over the same CD in a handicap. He looked OK winning that seller and this is a poor handicap The odds on favourite looks progressive and will probably win, but at 33/1 i reckon this one has place claims at least !
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Re: Lay of the Day - June 30 Looks like i need to lay an 8/1 ON shot to get back in the comp.......... Off to the racing post i go...............:tongue2
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections - Tues 5.00 Brighton - Green Velvet - lay Joint fave at the moment but amongst the 3 market leaders he's the only one with no decent track form - and this is a peculiar old track ! Has only run here once and was beaten 14 lengths Seems to go best at lingfield and might be best at 6 furlongs these days. Not well handicapped eith er - hasn't won for well over a year but is still 4 lbs higher than last win and has been hovering around this mark for the last 9 unsuccessful outings.
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Re: BBOTD 29/6/2010 4.45 Hamilton - Wicked Wilma - win at 5/1 BOG with bet365 Cosy winner of a handicap here last time, running on strongly at the finish Up 8 lbs today but down in class. They always say in these sprint handicaps to follow the one in form and she's the only last time out winner in the field. Course, distance and going no problem - same 5lb claimer up who won on her last time.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Monday 4.30 Wolv - Yashrid - lay Fave for the 12f handicap Has been in decent form with a win and 2nd in his first 2 handicaps But has gone up 8lbs for a nose win and a 4 length second. There's a couple of lightly raced types from Cecil and stoute in the race and my EW fancy (Parhelion) Taking the chance that he's been harshly treated for a win in a poor race and that one or two will be better handicapped.
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Re: BBOTD - Monday 28th of June Wolv 4.30 - Parhelion EW at 12/1 BOG with Stan james Was with Mak Johnston when running on the aw over the winter and won a CD maiden. Now with Tim vaughan Subsequently narrowly beaten in a couple of handicaps to suggest that his mark was fair.........but ran poorly last time when ran wide at sandown Has the inside draw today so hopefully won't be forced out wide I like that he definately stays the trip - this can be a quite testing 12 furlongs here at Wolves for three year olds. Hopefully he'll be running on when others are fading. New yard in good form
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Re: Strong bias towards prominent runners this weekend????
Few years ago i decided to 'specialise' in 5 furlong races and as part of that i produced a table of 'stamina requirements' for each 5 furlong track.........and listed them in order.........based on race times. Windsor was a 'stamina track' based on race times - i think it was because it was a dog-leg..........effectively slowing the field down compared to a straight track. Therefore maybe the dog-leg as Windsor acts the same as 'soft going'..........ie it slows the field down and hence suits front runners........anyone who goes to windsor knows on fast ground, front runners prevail they just dont get caught -
Re: Strong bias towards prominent runners this weekend????
i think that's an example of the point i was making ! On any given day or few days lots of factors enter the calculation, not least - which horses are running, how good are they ? etc ........have you have a few races today with 'good' front runners and poor hold up horses ? I'm more thinking as a general rule that should average out in the long term......... Soft ground 'should' suit front runners because the field runs more slowly therefore they have a bigger advantage being at the front as they're less likely to tire than they would if the field as a whole was running faster on fast ground Also soft ground makes it harder for horses behind to accelerate as their feet get stuick in the mud Lots of other factors like course lay=out etc come into play but just on the basis of 'going' - I'd say that soft going should suit front runners and firm going should suit hold up ( I count 'trackers' as hold ups !) Let's have a debate..............:DWindsor favours prominent runners and so can newcastle (although normally more obvious on soft going) -
Re: Curragh * Sunday 27th June
That's interesting, chris......... I know that there are thousands of races and you can probably find examples of everything, but...........:D I've always thought that fast ground suits hold up horses because it's easier to 'pick up' and accelerate on fast ground Plus.......on fast ground the field as a whole runs faster so the front runners are more likely to tire ! It's all about opinions !Yeah gutted i missed her but their again i dont touch irish racing at the moment enough on these shores but again it was a run just showing how these current super fast conditions are suiting prominent horses! For me praying for some rain not only for my job but also put us on a bit more of a level playing field! -
Re: Wolverhampton 28th June These summer all weather cards are shocking............:unsure I wish they'd just take a break for 4 months...........
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Re: What trainers/jockeys do it for you and why? As a general rule I take very little notice of jockeys....... If i've made a selection I might then look for other things to bolster my confidence in it.......and that might be a big name jockey or trainer or a trainer in form I never consider 'jockey in form'..........:unsure When I'm looking at a race I look at the horses...........I don't normaly look at trainers or jockeys until after I've made a selection, or maybe got a short list
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Re: Curragh * Sunday 27th June And another one for the all weather boys........ Glamorous Spirit wins the group 3 sprint at 16/1.......:loon Here's me waiting for her to get a good draw in chester handicap.....:spank Oh ye of little faith...........I've been plugging this filly all through the winter, but lost my bottle..........:loon
Sandown (Eclipse) 3rd July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Sandown (Eclipse) 3rd July Just been looking at the Eclipse.........blimey, what an impossible race Mawaatheq and Dar Re Mi look like they need 12 furlongs, Zacinto looks like he needs to return to 7 furlongs. Sri Putra was beaten a country mile last time out. Twice Over has never appealed as a group one horse but this looks a soft race and he might win by default Viscount Nelson hasn't won for ages but has some good form in the Classics this year, beaten about 4 lengths in both the Irish 2000 Gns and the French Derby. The Irish Guineas looked too short a trip as he was full of running at the finish and the French Derby looked a really hot race.