Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ July Well done falbrav !..........terrific total. Thanks to BH for the admin, top class as usual. :)
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Re: Lay of the Day - Saturday 31st July 8.10 Hamilton - Gap princess - win lay Fave for the sprint handicap, but she's had quite a hike in the weights over the last couple of runs and is now 9lbs higher than her last winning mark. She's a 6 year old with 40 runs to her name so it's not like she's a young improving horse. Last 3 wins have come at 6F and steps back to 5F today Not sure the uphill finish will suit her under a big weight. She has won here before but that was in a lower grade
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Re: UK Cards US Style ! Yeah..........I think we need a volunteer who understands US Race Cards to talk us through it..........:D I think I'll have a go at having this open with the Post in another window and compare the two, see if i can work out what the various figures mean...........might pick a race tomorrow and spend some time on it tonight !
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Found a website where you can download UK racecards set out in the style of US racecards.......... http://www.trni.tv/uk_racing_programs.htm appears to be free........... Something different ! Not sure what it all means, but I am sure it might be worth closer inspection !
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Re: Colts and Geldings If you're looking at a specific race you can see which horses are 'geldings' as of today..........you can then look back at their last race result on the Post site to see if they were 'C' or 'G' then......... You'll then know which ones have been gelded since their last run I think they recover pretty quickly from 'the op'.........they can run again within a few weeks
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Re: Colts and Geldings I'm pretty sure Geldings can't run in certain group races - the Derby for one I think it might only be the Classics
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 30th Bath 8.15 - Night Lily - win lay Is in decent nick and has finished 2nd twice out of her last 3 runs, but might be in the handicappers grip now as she's 9 lbs higher than last winning mark Best runs, and all wins, have been on flat, easy tracks. Not sure that the stiff finish here will suit her, particularly with 9-13 to carry uphill.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 29th Muss 7.25 - Ridley Didley - win lay fave for the sprint handicap but a run of 5 placed efforts since going up in the weights after his last win suggests that the handicapper might just have got him for the moment. He should be thereabouts but hopefully something will pip him on the post Front runner - he might get taken on for the lead here and set it up for the late runners.
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Re: Best bet of the day 29th July Goodwood 2.45 - Glamorous Spirit - ew at 50/1 with Sportingbet Bit of a sentimental pick, one of my girls from the all weather season She consistanly clocked what i think of as Listed class speed ratings in all weather handicaps, so it was no great surprise to me that she went over to Ireland and won a group 3 at big odds. (I didn't know she was running, so missed out !) I don't really think she's up to group 2 class and she ran a rare poor race last time at Chester, so I'm not very hopeful today But she's speedy, the track should suit her and there's a lot of come from behind horses here today who might not quite get to her if she's on top form. Big field is a bit of worry, I'll be happy if they split into a few groups and she gets a soft lead in her group............
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ July Yeah........that's reasonable, BH....... I suppose it's 'cos I never use betfair i still tend to think in terms of SP odds........I expect to get 1/5th odds for a place, and 5 times odds for a place lay I was expecting to win around 6 pounds for place laying Workforce.......:unsure
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 28th Oh dear........just noticed that the race is 14 furlongs, not 16...... Schoolboy error............:spank I think that gives my Lay a much better chance than i thought, but I'll stick with my selection.............:unsure
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 28th Sandown 8.35 - Tuscan Gold - win lay Very short price favorite in the two mile handicap for 3YO This horse is still a maiden and was beaten 6L on his first try at 2 miles in a similar level handicap to this. Handicapper has put him up twice for finishing second Of the 6 runners, he's the least stoutly bred in the field and I'm hoping one or more of the staying types will outrun him up the Sandown hill.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ July mmm...........it does look a bit 'over' for this month.........:tongue2 These betfair place odds are definitely a bit mysterious....... Falbrav place lays a 5/6 shot and wins about £ 12 On Saturday I place layed Workforce at shorter SP, 8/11, and only won £ 2 That sems a bit ridiculous, doesn't it ?............:unsure
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ July well done falbrav !..........:clap
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Re: Best bet of the day 27th July Bev 3.40 - Celtic Change - win at 8/1 BOG with Victor chandler Won this race last year and has a terrific CD record Faces a couple of in form rivals today but I reckon he could well get an unopposed lead here today and make all. This is how he's won his last 2 races here Has had a bit of break but form of his last run is working out well with the horses who finished arounf him winning since.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tuesday 27th July Bev 3.05 - Parks Prodigy - win lay I reckon patavium should finish in front of this one. he beat him by 3 lengths when they last met. There's a decent weight turnaround from that race but Patavium looks more suited of the two to todays race - he's got course winning form and acts on g/f. The lay selection appears to be better on easy, tight tracks like Muss and Catt and might want a bit of cut (or at least no 'firm') in the ground these days. I also have the lightly raced Johnston 3YO running for me - I wouldn't want to depend on him, but I'd rather have him on side !
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Re: Small field races - Any ideas ?
There may be a case for looking out for horses that do better in smaller fields' date=' as it has been known to work for come from behind horses in large fields![/quote'] Good point there ! Of course with older exposed handicappers you can look at their record and see if they have most of their wins in small fields........try and identify some small field specialists and watch 'em trail in well beaten in big fields waiting for the right time to strike ! There's also the 'small horse for small fields' theory which Nick mordin often mentions in his columns. The idea is that small horses tend to be timid types and find it difficult to run in big fields, particularly round bends when the field bunches up eg Paco Boy........ In single figure fields has won 10 out of 11 (only defeat was to Rip van Winkle in last years Sussex) In double figure fields has won 1 out of 8 (and that was with just the 10 runners) -
Recently I've been concentrating on small field races, around 5/6 runners if possible, 7 maximum Partly this is due to less time for study and a certain 'can't be bothered' attitude to six meetings a day to trawl through..............:unsure In the spirit of having a debate, i wonder if anyone has any ideas which might relate specifically to small field races........... I can think of a couple of things Front runners - in theory front runners should be better suited to running in small fields merely because there is a greater chance that they'll get a soft lead. Stamina - Logically you'd think that a 5 runner race would suit a horse with more speed than stamina at a given trip because 'the field' would would be toddling around and something with a finishing kick would be well placed. However, I think this doesn't work in practise because hold up horses can't get 'covered up' as easily in small fields and use up their energy more than they would hidden away in a big field. (this is an analogy with 'the peloton' in cycling - I've been watching the Tour de france and am always looking for ideas from other sports to apply to racing !) So, at the moment I'm thinking that in a small field you look for a front runner who definitely stays the trip or gets a bit further. If there's no obvious front runner then concentrate on the ones that stay the trip well Anyone got any other ideas ?
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Re: Best bet of the day 25th July Sorry, been having problems with 'Internet Explorer cannot display the page' when I try to submit a post - wanted to get in before the time limit ! Harrison george - in good form this season, a CD winner, represents Fahey/Hannigan. Has risen through the handicap and this represents a good chance for him to record a win at listed level The fave, Zacinto, looks a bit of a rogue these days and Rio de la plata doesn't run often, he might have some problem which has kept him off the track.
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Re: Best bet of the day 25th July 3.50 Ponty - Harrison george - win at 5/1 BOG with Bet365
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Re: Lay Of The Day - Sunday 25th July 3.50 Pontefract - Zacinto - win lay Would have been 5/1 ON for this a year ago but has lost his way Ran ok in the Queen Anne which might give his backers some hope, but even then he didn't look too resolute in the finish and got pipped for 3rd My opinion is that he should be sprinting, that a stiff 8F tests his stamina to the limit and that he's always looking for an excuse to down tools. I reckon the uphill finish here will give him the excuse and and something with a bit more courage will see him off
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Re: Key race - King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes I don't think the British and Irish 3 year olds are that good..........well, not the middle distance ones The Derby and Irish Derby look ordinary and Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco have both been pretty well put in their place in France. I think the French hold the aces..........Behkabad will win the Arc !
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 24th Ascot 4.25 - Workforce - place lay Going for a big one ! Realistically, he's the most likely winner, but there are grounds for doubt.........stable form (?), lugs to the left so might not be suited by a RH track, hard race at epsom, doubt about how good the British and irish 3yo's are, Derby form not really working out, he's been beaten by one of todays runners before
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Re: Racing chat on 5 live I expect it's the premier league of racing They seem to think that if they package is and market it properly they can get BBC, C4, ITV, C5, Sky in a multi-million pound bidding war to show the Premier League of racing......... I'm a bit dubious...........:unsure
Best bet of the day 1st Aug
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Best bet of the day 1st Aug 3.30 Chester - Doncaster Rover - win at 7/2 BOG with Betfred CD winner, won this race last year, acts with a bit of cut in the ground. Will need to bounce back a bit from a disappointing run last time out but the race might be run to suit him today with several 5 furlong types in the race, there should be a decent lick on. Has a wide draw, which isn't usually ideal here, but I think he'll be held up anyway and it's not too big a field. Hopefully the 5F types and front runners will be fading at the finish and he gets a clear run through !