Trotter
-
Posts
14,671 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
37
Posts posted by Trotter
-
-
Re: Best bet of the day 6th Aug Muss 8.10 - Arriva La Diva - win at 7/2 BOG with Victor chandler Three of the 6 runners here finished in a heap in a similar race last week here over this CD. Not too keen on the other 3 runners - two of them might find this too sharp and the other is a front runner drawn wide (albeit in a small field) So I'm concentrating on the 3 who ran here last week. They all finished close together and the odd pound change in weights isn't going to make much difference. I've picked the selection because hannigan takes the ride tonight and the other two are with the same jocks as last week. Is Hannigan going to make a length or so difference over 5 furlongs ? Must admit that I usually pay little attention to jockeys, I don't usually notice who's riding my selections, I don't really care. But I'm intrigued by these circumstances of 3 horses finishing together last week and now the Champ Elect takes over on one of them.........what difference will he make ? I guess I'm hoping that my general opinion that jockeys don't matter that much is going to be proved wrong by about 1 length per five furlongs !
-
Re: Lingfield - Friday 6th August Well done Towy Boy - breaks his maiden at the 45th attempt ! And well done to Spooner for swooping at the right time !....... :nana
-
Re: Undercover Boss Thanks for the reminder.........I'd have missed it !
-
Re: Best bet of the day 5th Aug Bath 6.55 - Mutadarrej - win at 11/10 with Sportingbet Won over CD last week by 6 lengths and is due to go up a lot in the weights Running under a penalty before his mark goes up looks like a good idea and they've a poor race to put him in Rivals look either well out of form, unlikely to stay on this stiff track, or just plain useless. Bound to go off odds-on, so 11/10 looks a decent bet !
-
Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Aug 5th Bath 6.20 - Our Piccadilly - win lay currently favourite for the fillies sprint handicap Is now below it's last winning mark and ran an eye-catcher at epsom last time, running on well to grab 4th in a better race than this The negatives - hasn't won for a long time, seems best on sharp or downhill tracks I don't think it'll be suited by the stiff finish at Bath and there's a couple of CD winners in the field who might outstay her up the hill.
-
Re: Speed Figures One of the adages I have in my mind is that 'all horses can run slow, but only good ones can run fast' ie good horses can run slow and can run fast bad horses can only run slow, they can't run fast That's why I like to see some evidence in the figs that a horse has the ability to clock a good time even if he doesn't clock a good time on every run.
-
Re: Speed Figures Love speed figures ! I do my own for the all weather tracks.........started doing it over a year ago. Just done kempton tonight, it's taken me about 5 minutes. I 'save' them on the Racing post 'My Ratings' feature so every time I open up a horse form page the ratings are all there alongside each run I stuck to the all weather because there is far too much turf racing, i didn't have the inclination to spend the time doing them all. And i also can ignore 'going' which is the bane of turf speed figures. Now I have some 16 months (and growing) sets of figures for every horse that has run on the AW I never look at a race on the AW now without referring to speed figs. But it's not as simple as looking for the horse with the best figs. For some horses i have maybe 20 runs now and the figures can vary wildly from race to race. Which figure do you use ? Do you take their best figure, their most recent, the best of the last 3 etc ? I tend to look at the figs in the context of the horse overall form and profile. I'm wary of horses that have good form but never recorded a good figure. I'm wary of horses that only record good figures in defeat - I think of them as being dragged to a good figure by the field I like horses that have a consistant set of good ratings, horses that have 2 or 3 ratings better than the best of any other horse in the race (Resentful Angel tonight !) I could talk for ages about speed figures, but in the end it comes down to understanding what they mean in the context of the races and form. A figure in isolation is not very helpful.
-
Re: Best bet of the day 4th Aug Think I ought do the lottery on saturday........:lol
-
Re: Best bet of the day 4th Aug 8.35 Kemp - Shamir - EW at 20/1 BOG with Laddies Dual CD winner, bit more exposed than some of these but at least we know he can win here, over this trip, in this class. He's done it before - winning a previous race in this qualifying series. Arguably put up a better performance in defeat last time up against older horses. Back amongst 3YO tonight and with a good draw. Should go well - let's see if the lightly raced unexposed types are up to it !
-
Re: LOTD 4th August Kemp 6.05 - Sircozy - win lay Beat speed dating last time on turf but I think Speed dating might well reverse the form here at Kempton, where he goes really well Sircozy has won at Ling, but was beaten here in some poor races and was also beaten here at odds on after he had started improving. Fancy Resentful Angel might beat them both !
-
Re: In Loving Memory board What a shame.........one of my favourites was Stotsfold. Terrific horse, had a couple of good wins on him and going by his runs this season he was getting better with age. The Swinburn yard must be devastated.............
-
Re: LOTD 4th August Couple of new players this month........ Aidymac amd macmuck.........:welcome Good luck guys !...........:cheers
-
Re: betting on the Favorite question I'm guessing the OP has some sort of 'stop at a winner, increase stake to recoup loses and make a profit' kind of system in mind. I've often thought of this as a decent idea.......not necessarily on favourites, but on anything that is 'bound to happen' sometime eg......the horse numbered 1 in handicaps is bound to win sooner or later, so just keep backing them with increasing stakes until you make a profit, then stop and start again. It seems logical but you'd need a hell of a lot of bottle to be putting several hundred quid on after a losing sequence..........
-
Re: long distances low prizemoney Good luck twinny ! I like a system with a good idea behind it, and this looks like a good idea to me ! :ok
-
Re: Best bet of the day 3rd Aug Cheers.........won by a mile ! :nana
-
Re: LOTD - Tuesday 3rd August 6.55 Southwell - Westwood = win lay Currently 2nd fave for the 6f handicap Front runner who has a wide draw to overcome Took advantage of a 7 lb lower AW mark than his turf mark when winning over CD 2 runs ago. The handicapper has now equalised his marks which means he's gone up 9 lbs on the AW. he won easily last time here but had an uncontested lead and was allowed to slip the field. Hopefully that won't happen tonight !
-
Re: Best bet of the day 3rd Aug Southwell 7.30 - Luscivious - EW at 25/1 BOG with victor chandler I think the current favourite, invincible lad, looks OK, but after that this race looks pretty open and i reckon one of the outsiders could be in the shake up Luscivious goes well here, has a good draw, has had a few weeks off to freshen him up and only looks badly handicapped on his turf form. On his southwell form he looks OK ! I've been waiting for him to get a decent draw over this CD since he ran an absolute corker from the graveyard draw up against the rail when finishing 3rd a few runs ago. Ignore his last run at york when he finished last, he must have cut in the ground or fibresand to run his race.
-
Re: Lay Of The Day 2nd Aug Windsor 6.40 - Wreningham - win lay Currently favourite for the sprint handicap. Looks to be in the handicappers grip at the moment. Went up 6 lbs for it's last win and has crept up another couple since for placing. Has run 6 times since that last win and has finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th each time, which suggests that he's just a few pounds too high at the moment. Seems to save his best runs for yarmouth these days, not sure why, i don't think of it as a specialist kind of track. He's never run here, but I wouldn't be too worried about that. Apart from his handicap mark, I'm opposing him on run style. he's an out and out front runner and there are at least 2 others in the field, both drawn inside him. I think he'll go off too fast attempting to get the lead and leave the race open for a late running type.
-
Re: Best bet of the day 2nd Aug 3.45 Ripon - Sioux Rising - EW at 40/1 with Sportingbet Jockey booking suggest this is the Fahey second string with Tony Hamilton on board and Hannigan choosing Baldemar The selection is making his seasonal debut in this Class 3 handicap sprint off a mark of 82. Last season he won his maiden on seasonal debut then won a handicap, class 3, off 80. As a lightly raced horse with just 5 career starts hes open to improvement and could be well handicapped off just 2 lbs higher than his winning mark. After that win he ran in a couple of heritage handicaps and was beat about 8L both times. Maybe he's best fresh, maybe the heritage handicaps were aiming too high and class 3 is his grade. I think he's only at 40/1 because hannigan picked the other one ! And yesterday at chester hamilton won on a second string at 20/1 with hannigan 2nd on the stable's more fancied runner. He's as low as 16/1 with some other firms.
-
Re: UK Cards US Style !
My memory ain't what it used to be............and i'd forgotten that i have some US Racing Books that i bought 20 years ago......... Classics like 'Beyer on Speed' and others. They give detailed analysis of US racecards, so I'll have to dig them out, get the magnifying glass out and read a book for the first time in about 5 years..........:loonStew is well into his US racing I think..... I need to learn how the read the Daily Racing Form, its a skill you never know might come in handy in the future.... -
Re: Newbury - Sunday 1st August grrrrrrr missed the break, never got to the front, practically pulled up two furlongs out..........finished last by a long way Oh well, betting was fun while it lasted...........:wall
-
Re: Lay of the day 1st Aug
Was toying with a place lay' date=' but will play safe.[/quote'] Both of our short priced favourites finished unplaced........ Last month i made a tactical decision to play safe and only did one place lay the whole month...........but most of my 'win lays' finished unplaced ! :loon I just don't know what to do for the best............:unsure:rollin -
Re: Newbury - Sunday 1st August Just placed my first bet for about 2 months on......... 5.00 Taurus Twins - EW at 10/1 with Stan James Couple of races over the straight track at Newbury this afternoon have been dominated by low drawn horses. TT is drawn 4 and has enough early speed to get out and pick his ground. I like the profile of handicappers who are a few pounds above their last winning mark but a few pounds below their last run If i don't pick up some cash on this one I'll probably not bet again until the all weather starts in November...........:loon
-
Re: Lay of the day 1st Aug Cork 3.40 - St Moritz - win lay Mark Johnston sends over a top handicapper for the Listed 8 furlong race at Cork and he's a firm favourite There's a few irish horses here who have good form in the past but have disappointed of late - horses like Gan Amhras, Famous, Lord High Admiral, Aznavour. But the main reason I'm opposing st moritz is the trip - not sure he really gets a mile. All his wins have been a 7 furlongs and in his 2 recent attempts at a mile, he's faded in the last 100 yards and lost 2nd place
Lay Of The Day - 6th August
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Lay Of The Day - 6th August Muss 8.10 - Forevers Girl - win lay Ran a good race last time when 2nd at Thirsk But that was over 6 furlongs and all her wins have been on the slowish track at Wolves, so i think this quick 5 furlongs will be too sharp for her. Looks well handicapped on turf though, a stone below her AW mark, so one to watch out for when the conditions are right