Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Between 9 and 10 tonight if you fancy turning the telly off.........
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 22nd 8.20 Epsom - Kings Troop - win lay This one looks reasonably handicapped now after a long losing run which has seen his mark drop from 86 to 69 I'm laying him 'cos I'm not sure he's suited by 12 furlongs. Having mainly raced over shorter trips he came 2nd when stepped up to 11F last time, and that seems to the basis of the pundits saying he might improve again for further I'm not convinced - according to my stamina ratings he's got the least stamina in tonights race and i reckon something will just outstay him in the finish That long losing run is a bit off putting as well.
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Re: Key race - King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes Although I haven't looked at pattern races for a month or two (gone back to handicaps !) I've carried on with doing form ratings........ Here's my ratings for the 8 runners, rating is based on their best performance in the last 12 months. 127 Workforce 124 Daryakana 122 Cape Blanco 121 Dar Re Mi 121 Harbinger 121 Youmzain 120 At First Sight 117 Confront Next step for me is to try and eliminate some of them on the basis of going, trip, track, stable form (:unsure) etc But that's a job for saturday morning !
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Re: Best bet of the day 21st July Sandown 8.50 - Lastroseofsummer - win at 5/1 BOG with paddy power Has won in class 5 handicap company, beating a subsequent winner. Finished a fairly close up 3rd in class 4 next time and has a good opportunity here. Went up 4 lbs for the win but has gone back down a pound This is something i look for in handicaps - a horse that is higher than his last win, but lower than his last run, and this one fits the bill Acts g/f, won at Newmarket so should handle the uphill finish Got some doubts about the ones ahead of it in the market and at 5/1 she looks a solid option.
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Re: Lay of the day 21st July Sand 8.50 - Tilos Gem - win lay Has had 12 runs in handicaps without wining since he won his maiden race. During that time has been slipping down the weights and it might just be that he's now reached his level where he can win Finished 2nd last time on first attempt at this 14F trip and is trained by M Johnston, wo has a reputation for improving horses when they step up in trip That's the pluses !.............why he's currently favourite (but given my record he'll probably go off at about 20/1 outsider of the field.........:unsure ) Negatives - he's gone up in the weights for that 2nd, he's up in class from class 6 to class 4. Most importantly in nearly all his races he gets a similar comment 'weakened, faded in final furlong'. That 2nd was on an easy track at catterick - I can see him fading up the Sandown hill !
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Re: Do you ever get bored of racing, reading form etc? I'm sure we all have periods like that ! With me it's usually when there'a lot of racing on..........say 5/6 or more meetings I just look at the racecard list and think 'oh geez'.........:( Some days it feels like work rather than a hobby.............:unsure Here's a little tip from me............this is what I'm doing at the moment. I look down the racecard list on the Sporting Life site and only look at handicap races with 5/6/7 runners...........(the Post doesn't give the number of runners on it's 'todays racecards page ) I'm not betting at the moment........been having a few weeks off .........so I'm only looking at races for the various comps. I figure a 5/6 runner race doesn't take as long to study as a big field !
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Re: LOTD - Mon 19th July Bev 8.00 - Carlitos spirit - win lay Romped home by 10 lengths in an apprentice handicap last week and escapes a penalty - and the third home has won since. Undoubtedly well handicap now after a year of more or sliding down the weights I'm opposing him on the basis of the track and trip - he won at hamilton, which is quite a stiff finish, but he had an uncontested lead there. I don't think he'll get that tonight with other front runners in the field and i don't think he'll last home up the Beverley Hill if he's unable to lob along at a slow pace in front.
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Re: Best bet of the day Monday 19th july 8.00 Bev - Shadowtime - win at 9/4 BOG with Stan James Goes well here and won over CD last week Has to carry a penalty but drops down a class and is the only one in the field certain to appreciate the track, trip and going. With 3 front runners in a field of 6 this could be set up for him as he usually tracks the pace, travels well and comes with a late run The uphill finish suits him as the front runners will probably be fading up the hill
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ July Cheers BH ! I've adopted a new 'cautious' strategy this month - not place laying and not laying odds on favourites.........seems to be working, but i only need a few losers to wipe out my carefully accumulated 30p a day profit......... If that happened I'd probably go back to looking for 'big ones'........:lol
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Re: DJ Kiz Selections Thread Good luck mate !...........:ok
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Re: Best bet of the day 18th July Well done lars ...........:nana I was dithering over two horses in two races today and couldn't make my mind up, so ended up not posting either of them. They both got beat............:unsure Feels like I've had a winner..........avoidance of a loser is like an Evens winner !..............:rollin
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Re: Black Spot Horse in the Racing post on-line?? :welcome not sure what you mean by 'the black spot horse' ............ is that a term borrowed from another sport ?
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 18th Redcar 4.20 - Go Nani Go - lay Currently fav for the sprint handicap at Redcar Having his 2nd run of the season and ran quite well on debut and i guess he might come on a bit for the run, which is an angle I often look for myself. But in this case I'm not sure he will come on for the run. Looks like a horse that doesn't take much racing with 6 runs in 2 years. Won on debut as a 2YO then disappointed twice when going off at short odds. Might just be a 'best fresh' type Also he might be better with cut in the ground. His seasonal debut this year was on good to firm and he ran well, but maybe they can get away with that once but not twice in a few weeks. he hung away in the finish at Donny and i often take that as evidence that a horse isn't at home on the ground, he's not liking it !
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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+40pts) Hey Monte...........have you noticed that your namesake is running in the German Derby tomorow ! :ok
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Re: Lay of the day - Sat 17 July Picked another 'unplaced lay' so i shouldn't complain but in the space of 10 minutes between posting and flicking the telly over to watch the race he'd slipped from Fav to 3rd fav in a field of 5 ! Do all the big Layers read this thread ?................:spank Is Harry Findlay sat at home waiting for my posts ?...........:moon
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Re: Lay of the day - Sat 17 July Newm 4.40 - Rockfella - lay Currently Fav for the 14.8 furlong handicap I'm not convinced this one will get the trip He's mainly run at 12F up to now, tried 14F last time but appeared to have no extra at the finish. That was at goodwood so a bit further with an uphill finish could well be too much for him Also - the way I assess stamina (which, to be fair, is pretty crude !) he's not bred for staying. By winning at 12F he's already outstayed his breeding to me !
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Re: BBOTD Sat 17th Newm 4.40 - Curacao - win at 9/4 BOG with Stan James Only 5 runners for the long distance handicap at HQ Curacao is nicely handicapped now, just 1 lb above his last winning mark. He acts on the ground, both his wins have been in small fields, both his wins have been at tracks with uphill finishes He's not in sparkling form at the moment but has been finishing thereabuts, in the first four, in his last few races. That could well be enough today as I have doubts about the other 4 runners. Judgethemoment is well out of form, My Mate max looks best front running round a tight track - the hill might find him out. The other two might not stay.
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Re: Best bet of the day 16th July Newb 5.30 - Laish La Hajar - win at 17/2 BOG with VC I quite fancy the outsider of the field here in the 6 runner handicap. Front runner who is having his second run back after a long break Was beaten quite a long way on his return but was eased at the finish, and probably could have finished closer. Even in this small field, i reckon 3 or 4 of these probably need further than todays trip and might not have the pace to keep up with the selection if he goes off in front. hopefully he'll get an uncontested lead I'm worried about Sgt Schultz who won a similar race to this here a couple of runs ago but at the respective odds I'll take the selection Yard in decent nick - has had a couple of recent winners both of which were well thrashed on their previous runs.
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Re: Lay of the day 16th July welcome wafer............:welcome Newb 5.30 - Mountain Forest - lay Backed into favouritism for the 11 furlong handicap but both of his career wins have come over 16 furlongs and this trip looks to be on the sharp side for him, even with a little cut in the ground Usually runs on the AW, where both his wins have been, but hasn't clocked any good ratings and has won a couple of slow races Just think everything might happen a bit too quickly for him today, even tho' I reckon 4 of the 6 runners probably need further........the likely front runner and the likely fast finisher are both best at around this trip
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ July 15th Oh heck, Fin...........I've just stuck him up in BBotD.......:lol For my lay I'm going to the 4 runner race at Donny........ Donny 8.05 - Vesuve - lay This is apparently Godolphin's second string as Frankie has presumably had the choice and chosen Yamal That's not really what puts me off, though - it's the trip. He's only ever won over 10 and 11 furlongs and his last few runs at 8f have seen him one paced and beaten 5/6 lengths in G3 company in Dubai I think Yamal and even old Cesare might have too much for him at a mile.
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Re: Best bet of the day 15th July Epsom 8.20 - Sailorman - win at 11/10 BOG with VC Won a similar handicap a few days ago at Chepstow, 7 furlongs, class 4, good to firm, unulating track, beating older horses He won that by 5 lengths, very easily. The handicapper is going to put him up 11 lbs for that from next week, so running under a 6 lb penalty tonight looks a smart move.
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Re: Lay of the day 14th July ''WED'' Kemp 8.50 - Mambo Spirit - lay Currently fave for the 7F handicap Is in good form now after a long losing run - stepped up to 7F and won over CD then finished 2nd at chepstow. Handicapper has hammered him though - up 12 lbs over the two runs So compared to his win here two runs ago he's well up in the weights, up in class, and had an uncontested lead that night and won 'unchallenged'. Might not be so lucky tonight !
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Re: Weight Question v = visor p = cheekpieces If you have a look in the Glossary thread in the stickies above, there's a few posts discussing various headgear
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Re: Best bet of the day 13th July Yarm 8.30 - Anacopa - win at 9/2 Laddies BOG Take a chance that this one will improve on her fourth outing and handicap debut for the Godolphin team Doubts about the older horses in this race and the other 3YO and likely Fave has been pushed up in mark twice for finishing 3rd, which seems harsh, and also comes back from a break. Frankie takes the ride tonight and the stable are in decent nick.
Racing chat on 5 live
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Racing chat on 5 live To be fair........I expect that trying to get racing stories into the 'soaps' is about number 296 on the racing for change list of 'things to do' But R5 is aimed at the general sports audience in the same way as tabloid newspapers, and they pick up on this because they think it's of general interest I imagine if the Sun or Mirror ever bothered to do an article about Racing for Change they'd probably lead on 'Frankie Dettori at the Queen Vic'.........because their readers are interested in soaps and not interested in racing.............