Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Tissue Practice what the hell happened there..............:lol Try again........... 4/1 Berberana - 6/1
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Re: Tissue Practice I've had a crack at the 3.50 catterick - 5 furlong sprint handicap for 3 year olds Although it's 3 year olds, they've all run a few times ! my odds - horse - current best price available 4/1 Berberana, - 6/1
5/1 Cadeaux Pearl, - 10/1 5/1 Crimson Knot, - 12/1 6/1 Cruise Tothelimit, - 6/1 12/1 Bay Of Fires, - 4/1 10/1 Gottcher, - 9/2 10/1 Royal Bajan, - 9/2 14/1 Forty Proof - 16/1 I found this one tricky because it was very difficult to seperate some of them, it appears to be a wide open contest -
Re: Tissue Practice
I think this is probably what you and i did with National Hope......... Basically questioning each others prices before the race, or at least putting up some degree of reasoning for our prices I think that's very healthy and can only help to hone our opinions, but I can't see why it would be best done by PM.............assuming it doesn't descend into yah boo my view is better than yours etc.............:pThanks, Kithanga. I understand what you are saying and I'd be interested in doing this with others - despite what I may have said previously - if others want to give it a shot. We have the facility to PM up to 5 people at a time, so I propose that instead of constantly updating here, we use private messages instead - at least for a little while. Who's in? -
Re: Tissue Practice Thanks for the lengthy posts, guys ! Just to pick up on one thing on Fin's post........I agree that step one is to put the horses in order by chance of winning, which is what i do As to assigning a 'first price' to work from, I read an interesting idea the other day when googling the subject........the idea being that if every horse in the race had the same chance then the odds of all of them would be 'number of runners minus 1 to 1.' So in an 9 horse race they would all be 8/1 The suggestion was that you assign that price to the middle horse in your list.......ie in a 9 runner race the fifth one would be 8/1........on the basis that he is the average of the field and the average of the field of 9 runners should be 8/1. Now you can work from there !
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Re: BBOTD 12th July Bev 3.30 - Spiders Star - win at 13/2 BOG PP Small field here and this one is the outsider of the field But she's a dual CD winner who won here only 3 runs ago Hold up horse with a bit of a turn of foot - I expect Mojolika to take them along but not sure he's good enough to shake off the field, so I think it could come down to a sprint finish up the hill
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Re: Who's the Daddy ? Canford Cliffs for me..............
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Re: Sire stats on Post cards
Yeah, that's a real cop out...........:p I;m mainly interested in the AW for the winter season........I might just start jotting down these stats as and when they appear and build up a database ready for thw AW seasonAs far as I'm aware the full sire stats aren't available of the RP site. They seem to be only on the AW maiden races at the moment but they'd useful for all juvenile or maiden races where the only comments are usually 'check the market'. (well duh) -
Re: Sire stats on Post cards Found the J site.......... http://www.jadwizracing.co.uk/course-information/uk-racecourses/southwell-racecourse.aspx but it appears to have gone all subscription now............and looks as though it hasn't been updated for a while.
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Re: Sire stats on Post cards Cheers Lars...........that's pretty good but a bit fiddly ! I used to have a site on my old computer that gave these kind of stats.........but I haven't got it now...........and can't remember it, tho' i think it began with J ?
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Re: Tissue Practice This does confirm my belief that these are bad races for tissue forming and generally for betting in I had the winner as 4th favourite based on 'potential' and the fact that i was sure it would get the trip but no way could i stick it higher than 4th - 3 runs, no pattern to it's performances Looking at it's form last night you couldn't put it near the top of your tissue, there just wasn't enough info to base an opinion on This is why i tend to stick to handicaps for older horses........
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Re: Tissue Practice we;ve all done our dough.......... so much for value.............:p
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Re: Sire stats on Post cards Just to add to that...... There's also lots of trainer info in the Diomed comments like 'trainer 0-36 with first time out 3yo in last 5 five years' Again this seems to be new and something I've been looking for years......... The B2yoR site has these figs for all trainers but only for 2yo I can't find these stats on the 'trainer' page on the RP..........where's it coming from ?
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Just looking at southwell tomorrow and noticed in the Diomed comments lots of reference to 'Sire 6-18 here' 'Sire 0-22 here' This appears to be something new.............and quite valuable But I'd like to see that stat for every horse in the race not just the ones that Diomed includes ! Anywhere know where that info is available from ?............is it hidden away somewhere on the RP site ?
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Re: Tissue Practice Mmm.........Wishformore is now out to 7/1 This is a dilemma............ Should I be pleased that it's getting to be better value compared to my tissue ? Or should i be worried that it's drifting and in fact it's value is diminishing because it suggests it's not 'off' tonight ? :unsure
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Re: Tissue Practice Just looking back at my tissue from last night I had it as 5/2 fave not 7/2 !.........:loon Even better value !.............
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Re: Tissue Practice Yes, I've had a couple of quid on Wishformore as well, and stuck it up as my BBotD I had it at 7/2 fave so 11/2 looks pretty generous !
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Re: BBOTD Monday 11th July Windsor 8.10 - Wishformore - win at 11/2 Stan James I had this one at 5/2 favourite on the 'Tissue' thread so at available odds I've got to think it's a good bet ! Has won over the trip and acts on the going. Ran 3rd in a slightly better race last time out at newbury and the 4th and 6th have come out and won so that form looks solid. The race could be run to suit as she's usually held up and there seems to be about 5 front runners in this 7 runner field ! There's a couple of lightly raced 3 year olds in here who might improve on what they've shown so far but I reckon my selection is a solid yardstick for tonights event.
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Re: Tissue Practice I hope the thread keeps going as i found that a useful exercise.......and finally learned how to use that 'My Odds' feature on the post racecard........... :lol
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Re: subscription form package recommendations. Never really been tempted to subscribe to any paid ratings service No idea how much they cost but you've got to make that back before you show any profit and it's hard enough starting from scratch There are some free speed ratings around..........Topspeed in the Post, the speed ratings column on the At the Races site and the Patternform site gives ratings for every horse every day
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Re: Have you ever been "knocked back" No, never been knocked back............ Mind, my biggest ever stake has been a tenner. And it lost..............:spank
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Re: Tissue Practice
I was going mainly on the trip and my patented stamina ratings ! I usually rank the horses by stamina first and then look at their race record in the light of that - OK, this isn't a great race for it because there's a few lightly raced types who's trip preference might not be clear yet But I've got her second lowest on stamina, sh'e only won at 6 furlongs and had faded in the finish both runs at 7 furlongs. I'm not sure stepping up to 8 furlongs is the thing to do with her ! If it's any consolation I've got her and Wishformore as well clear on their AW speed ratings, but haven't rated any of the field's turf runs It's all about opinions...........as you're backing it and I'm probably not going to back anything in the race, I hope I'm wrong............:okNice to see you getting in the mix, Trotter. Maybe I priced National Hope up too short, but I wouldn't have gone anywhere near double figures. She's relatively unexposed and I just watched her last run - she reared up a bit in the stalls and made all until the last furlong when the jock seemed to give up. We'll know by 8:15 tomorrow :) -
Re: Tissue Practice I've had a go at the windsor race.......... 10/1 - Red Yarn - 7/1 9/2 - Pandorea - 9/1 4/1 - Hurricane Lady - 5/2 5/2 - Wishformore - 4/1 5/1 - Totheendoftheearth - 4/1 14/1 - National Hope - 16/1 8/1 - Flying Phoenix 8% - 10/1 that's a 99% book Wishformore and Pandorea would be my value bets I seem to have a difference of opinion with jay about National Hope !
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Re: BBOTD 9th July sub for my earlier non runner Sals 7.50 - Maraheb - win at 2/1 bog Bet365 Ran in two good maiden racves as a 2yo, won by Fury and Namibian, beaten about 4 lengths in both Came out this season and won a newmarket maiden by 6 lengths Looks to have better maiden race form than the Cecil horse, who's currently the favourite tonight It appears to be between the two of them !
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Re: BBOTD 9th July
Oh blimey..........I've been watching 'Le Tour' and just flicking over for selected races...........watched this race and my horse never got a mention.........oh well, c'est la vie........... Just checked the Full Result in the Life and see it was a non runner......... It's like having a winner !.............:lol:lol:lolYork 3.15 - Kings gambit - ew at 40/1 BOG bet365
Tissue Practice
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Tissue Practice inevitable non runner in a 8 runner field...........:wall Bay of Fires is now 3/1 favourite........Royal bajan 7/2. Gottcher and Berberana are 11/2, Cadeaux pearl 8, Crimson Knot 10, Forty proof 14 I'm a bit cool on the 3 market leaders - Bay of Fires has never run over 5 furlongs and is likely to get caught in a pace duel with Cadeaux Pearl Gottcher and royal bajan come out of the same race, they're both up in class and up in the weights I think Berberana looks the value