Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Flat Racing 23rd Jan ATR reporting that someone in Somerset has an acca going onto Strike Force in the 5.30 with potential winnings of over £ 800,000 if it comes in.........
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Re: Flat Racing 23rd Jan Well done everyone on Chabada ! When i went to stick some cash on it was only 11/8 at Stan James so I thought 'sod that for a game of soldiers' and didn't bother ! :unsure
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Re: Flat Racing 23rd Jan 4.00 - Island legend - 6/1 at early prices Has been banging his head against a brick wall in class 4 races so far this AW season but the handicapper has relented and dropped him to 75 which lets him in a class 5 All his wins have been at this level including twice over CD Ease in grade could see him in with a chance of winning Current fave is Blown It - he looks to be in the handicappers grip having been beaten less than 2 lengths in his last 5 races off marks of 63,64,65. His last win was off 57
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Re: Flat Racing 23rd Jan 3.30 - Chabada - win Was quite impressed with this one when it won it's maiden at Southwell and even though it's favourite at the early prices, i think it's a good bet at 9/4 The second has since won over hurdles and the fourth has won a maiden so the form looks OK and the speed fig was good Second fave at the moment is Bow River Arch who is a one paced maiden. Ran OK last time but again didn't find much in the finish. Third fave - Maison Brillet is up in class, up in the weights for finishing 2nd in a much worse race than this and has never recorded a decent speeed fig. At least he's in good form I reckon this looks a straightforward task for Chabada on handicap debut.
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Re: Flat Racing 23rd Jan Wolv 2.30 - Avonrose - win at 6/1 bog Bet365 Yesterday for BBotD i made the mistake of changing my mind and missed a good winner.........:@ So I'm sticking with my first thoughts on this race Avonrose had gradually been getting closer to winning and finally came good last time at southwell, recording a good speed fig in the process Has won here at Wolves over CD Has gone up 3 lbs for that Southwell win which means a career best handicap performance is needed today but I've got doubts about all the other runners so reckon she might get away with it Philip Makin keeps the ride after winning at southwell and he rides Wolverhampton particularly well. The horse is well drawn in 2 with stall 1 a non runner
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Re: BBOTD - Monday 23rd Jan 2012 Wolv 2.30 - Avonrose - win at 6/1 bog bet365 Yesterday for BBotD i made the mistake of changing my mind and missed a good winner.........:@ So I'm sticking with my first thoughts on this race Avonrose had gradually been getting closer to winning and finally came good last time at southwell, recording a good speed fig in the process Has won here at Wolves over CD Has gone up 3 lbs for that Southwell win which means a career best handicap performance is needed today but I've got doubts about all the other runners so reckon she might get away with it Philip Makin keeps the ride after winning at southwell and he rides Wolverhampton particularly well. The horse is well drawn in 2 with stall 1 a non runner
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Re: BBOTD - Sunday 22nd Jan 2012 Kemp 2.50 - Bennelong - win at 12/1 bog bet365 Going to take a chance on one of the outsiders in this 8 runner 11 furlong handicap Bennelong is a pretty inconsistant horse - as such when he wins it tends to be at decent odds, last 3 wins at 8/1, 7/1 and 16/1 Those 3 wins have come in the 7 runs since he joined Richard Rowe last August - prior to that he'd had 4 trainers and managed 1 win in 22 runs over a period of 3 years. Obviously a frustrating type he chucks in the odd shocker for no apparent reason. He's definitely one who has his going days and his non going days and not one that you could ever back at short prices. Today he's back at the scene of his last win, kempton, after a couple of runs at lingfield. Looking at his record he appears to run better at kempton Rowe has also stepped him up in trip after running at a mile or sprints for 3 years - he's since won at 9, 10 and 12 furlongs. Today's 11 furlongs should be ideal. Three lbs higher than last win and dropped a pound since last run. I think the favourite, Nibani, is vulnerable, though he's in cracking form. He's drawn in astall 1 today which might present a problem as his style is to be held up at the rear of the field. Last time he was drawn widest and could just amble over as the field took the bend. This time he might have to be pulled back from the inside. Also last time, 10 furlongs, was on the inner track and he made his run around the outside. Today is on the outer track and the temptation will be to wait for the cut away and go up the inner. That does present the possibility of geting into traffic and you often see horses rushed up on the inside at the cut away at Kempton, but it's a long way out to be making a big move and they boften hit the front only to be swamped by horses that make their run later My original choice to take on the favourite with was Focail Maith but i don't like these horses that creep up the weights without winning - he's gone up another 2 lbs for his 2nd to Nibani last time. I think he'll beat Nibani today............:unsure But I'll take a chance on a bit of a rogue to have a good day
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Re: Race planning at the weekend I agree it's ridiculous........ Why couldn't they have had ascot today and haydock tomorrow ?
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st January Asc 2.35 - Shoreacres - win at 11/2 bog Bet265 Has returned to hurdling after a disappointing season over fences Finished 2nd in two decent handicap hurdles and has a good chance of going one better today Everything is in his favour - right hand track, cut in the ground and a slight drop back in trip by 2 or 3 furlongs. He's been headed in the closing stages both times recently after being ridden clear and looking the winner Hopefully he'll go clear a furlong or two out this time and manage to hold on !
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Re: Each way betting I just can't get my head around this concept of having a bet whereby if your horse gets placed you lose money.............. I mean, really..........whats the point ? I readily conceed that i might change my opinion if i was betting in hundreds rather than a quid EW................:lol
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Re: Each way betting I stick to what I said earlier........... 10/1 is the minimum odds i would take EW That comes to Evens if it's placed (fifth odds, half stake, effectively tenth odds) As i wouldn't back anything at odds on to win I'm not going to back anything at under Evens to place
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Re: BBOTD - Friday 20th January 2012 2.30 Ling - irons on Fire - win at 5/4 bog PP Only 4 runners for this 12 furlong seller Irons on fire appears to be getting the hang of things now and has won his last 2 races Beat his main market rival, Rowan Ridge, by 5 lengths last time they met and the form of his last win looks OK with the 4th and 5th winning next time out There's not much between all 4 runners on the figures but my selection appears to be the one who's improving Rowan Ridge has run a bit flat the last twice Wisecraic comes out top on the speed figs but not sure the extra 2 furlongs will suit Ay tate tate has been running at Southwell but has some decent polytrack form prior to that. He just seems a bit of a lame finisher over whatever track/trip he runs at
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Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope? I think mileni hit the nail on the head with 'sick of studying cards' It's relentless if you're at it every day I look at the cards every day but sometimes taking that next step of spending a couple of hours on one or two races just seems like a chore.........it's when I feel like I'm forcing myself to do it that I like to take a couple of days off After all it is a hobby and I ought to enjoy it !
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Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope? Does anyone have a problem with winning runs ? After two or three winners I like to take a day or two off on the basis that lightning can't strike four times ! And there's always that temptation to get a bit cocky after a few winners and think that you don't need to put the work in because you're 'on a streak' Also - you get drawn to something at a big price that has a bit of a squeak but because you're on a winning run you think it must have a great chance because, well........you fancy it a bit and you can't do anything wrong at the moment I reckon calmness in the face of losing and winning runs is a useful tool ! A day or two off resets the default position..............:D
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Re: BBOTD - Thurs 19 Jan Wolv 4.30 - Dancing welcome - win at 3/1 bog PP Won a similar race to this last time with 3 of todays rivals in 2nd, 3rd and 4th Although she now has a penalty for that win it's difficlut to see any of those three reversing placing as she won readily by 3 lengths running away at the finish The biggest danger could be the current favourite, Gold Tobougg, who's lightly raced, won her maiden over CD and ran OK on her handicap debut last time. However her maiden was a poor race against mainly 40s rated horses and her improved performance last time came over 7 furlongs. Not apparent that dropping back in trip will be in her favour
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Re: Flat Racing Wednesday 18th Seven non runners in the first at Kemp - all self certified What's going on ?...........coincidence ? RUK are investigating........
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Re: Jump Racing Wednesday 18th Good luck for the Hunter Chase season, addpea........:hope
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Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds As no one appears to have an explanation i expect it was just trial and error and market forces Bookies probably found that offering one-third odds or one-half lost them money and offering one-sixth or one-seventh didn't tempt anyone to bet...........so market forces settled at one-quarter and one-fifth as being the range at which people would bet and still give the bookies a chance to make a profit
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 18th Ling 3.30 - Good morning star - win at 5/1 PP Only 5 runners for this 10 furlong handicap and I fancy one of the two outsiders. In fact i quite fancy both of the two outsiders but I'm going for this one ! Mark Johnston's runner has had 14 weeks off the track but that isn't a concern as Johnston can ready them at home and her best run to date was on her racecourse debut Disapointed in 3 subsequent runs at the end of the season Makes handicap debut today and is up in trip. Has bundles of stamina and has front run in the past. I'll probably know my fate early because she'll only win by setting off in front, probably going clear and keeping on right to the line. If she's got company coming into the straight I expect she'll get done for toe Hopefully it'll be one of those where after the race it looked so obvious - Johnson runner, runs over inadequate trips to get a mark, handicap debut up in distance, makes all.............I think we've seen that scenario a few times before !
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Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Well I guess that if one-fifth odds is the historical norm from time immemorial (as they say to explain things that just have always been so) then you can see one-quarter odds as a bookies bonus to tempt people into betting on the races they want you to bet in, ie big field handicaps As to why one-fifth was the accepted norm I have no idea. It would be interesting to know if one-fifth was the norm before decimal currency In ancient times (when I was a lad) we had farthings which were a fourth of a penny - so any bet could have been settled at one-quarter odds without resorting to difficult fractions of a penny, ie could have been settled in whole amounts of currency It would make sense if one-quarter odds was the historical norm
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Re: BBOTD 16th Jan late surge on the forum for Henry San............:p well done guys..............:ok
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Re: Jump Racing Monday 16th Could be a few late non runners at Plumpton - some trainers are not happy with the ground
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Re: BBOTD 16th Jan Wolv 3.55 - Chelsea Mick - win at 9/1 bog wm hill Probably mad to take on both market leaders in this 6 runner handicap. Maybeagrey and Karma Chameleon are both on winning sprees, both CD winners and both well tipped up by the various sites However - they're both up in class and up in the weights and might just be looking at each other and forgetting the other 4 runners in the field Chelsea Mick is bred for a trip and won his maiden here last year over 7 furlongs He's tried todays trip of 8.65 furlongs before but that came after a 10 week break and he was hampered by a horse veering in front of him just as he was beginning a run on the outside Last time he dropped back to 7 furlongs and was outpaced in the finish Drops in class today, yard in decent nick and a good 5 lb claimer in the saddle To be honest i suspect he's probably a bit high in the weights after his maiden win, I don't see him as well handicapped - relying on the drop in class and returning to a more suitable trip to eke out the extra needed to win And it would help if the two market leaders both had bad days..........:p
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Re: Oscar Winners from ATR Well done Rupert, Monty and Ted...........:clap Rupert...........seems like you've been here for ages ! Monty..........terrific thread, great write ups and all round contribution, well deserved (even tho' you beat me !..........:lol ) Ted...............well, smacks in a 40/1 winner today (backed at 60s) just to prove the point ...............:notworthy Great stuff guys..............:ok
BBOTD Tues 24th Jan 2012
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD Tues 24th Jan 2012 2.50 Sou - Even stevens - win at 7/4 bog PP Can't add much to what everyone else has said - terrific CD record, been climbing the weights but still winning comfortably You could make the case that the handicapper might have him now with the latest rise - certainly Mottley Crew would finish upsides him on the figures today if he wasn't a couple of pounds out of the handicap I also like his stablemate Cadeaux Pearl at bigger odds, but he usually runs in lower grades than this and is also a couple of pounds OH Just looking back at ES's Southwell record - the only time he's lost here was about a year ago and the horse that won that day was my BBotD at 9/1........so I reckon i know when to oppose ES at Southwell.........:D And i ain't opposing him today !