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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Points System

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Trotter said:

    Here's today's selections ……...

    Tues 14/05

    Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3

    Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB) (Placed 7/2), Aristocracy 5

    Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4 (WON 3/1), Boycie 4 (NR)

    Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5 (Placed 6/4), Avonmore 4

    Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5 (WON 5/2), Babytaggle 5 (Placed 3/1)

     

    Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest

    Couple of winners and a few places

    I think next time I do this I'm just going to give the top rated and not bother with second rated ones …….. the system can stand or fall by which horse is top rated.

    I think that's more meaningful !

    Points System

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

    Clive Holts Fineform by any chance ?

    I think I have it and the revised version tucked away somewhere on one of my many pen drives

    Used it years ago has its moments

    good luck :ok

    Yes, that's exactly what it was ……… :ok

    I'm sure it could have been summed up in a paragraph but I think he padded it out to fill a little booklet

    I don't remember ever buying it but maybe I did

    Points System

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    After reading the VDW thread I thought I'd check out another system from decades ago when I first got interested in racing. Basically just a Points system based on last 2 form figures, C, D and CD wins

    Last 2 runs

    1 = 5 pts

    2 = 3 pts

    3 = 2 pts

    Bonus points

    C = 1 pt

    D = 1 pt

    CD = 3 pts

    The problem with the system once you got to know a bit more about the sport was that it took no account of class. For example a horse that had won two Sellers and one had been over 12 furlongs at Epsom would be top rated for the Derby ahead of a horse that had won The Racing Post Trophy and Guineas as it's last two runs. Obviously ridiculous.

    But once you start looking behind the points and assessing class and going and all the other variables that don't show up in a pure points system you might as well forget it and just study the race as you normally do. The purpose of a points system (or any system) is to take the subjective element out and throw up random selections that have some logic behind them 

    So anyway I had a brainwave ...…… :loon

    If you stick to the lowest class of handicap then the form figures and bonus points will almost certainly have been earned in that class or higher ……. you can't have horses with points earned in lower classes of race because there aren't any (they could be Sellers but they're usually on a par with class 6). 

    So I thought I'd stick to Class 6 Handicaps on the Flat and Class 5 over Jumps.

    Top two rated (in one of the races today there is joint 2nd rated)

     

    Here's today's selections ……...

    Tues 14/05

    Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3

    Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB), Aristocracy 5

    Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4, Boycie 4

    Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5, Avonmore 4

    Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5, Babytaggle 5

     

    Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest

    Racing Chat - Saturday 11th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Good races at Lingfield today

    1.55 Oaks Trial

    With the overnight favourite, Frankellina, a non runner and no Aidan O'Brien entry this looks wide open with 5 twice-raced fiilies and a couple of more exposed ones. 

    Four of the twice raced horses have won all weather novice or maiden races which maybe points to how the AW racing is developing

    Not much to go on form-wise …….. I'll stick with the Gosden-Dettori combo and go with Anapurna at around 11/4

     

    2.30 Derby Trial

    This looks more competitive than the Oaks trial with a bigger field,. The horse with the form and current favourite is O'Briens' Anthony van Dyke who won group races last year. Appears to be some doubt as to whether he's stay and with the ground going soft I'm looking for some EW value to oppose him. Mark Johnston's Themaxwecan EW at 14/1 appeals ……. looks a stayer and should be ridden prominently. Hopefully they'll go a decent clip and run the finish out of any doubtful stayers

     

    3.40 The Chartwell (7f stakes, Group 3, filies)

    I'm going with the only 3 year old in the field who comes over from France after placing in one of the Guineas trials, Gets weight from the older horses and acts on soft and heavy. Devant at 4/1

     

    Racing on TV

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I like US Rachel but am constantly amazed by the way she pronounces 'forward' ……..

    sounds like she's saying 'froward' !

    Not too bothered about SSR having reporters on track ……. the only useful they do is assess how the horses look in the paddock

    The pre and post race interviews are a total waste as nobody ever says anything apart 'he's a nice horse' and 'I'll have to see how he comes out of the race and talk to the owners before deciding his next target'

    Racing on TV

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Yeah .…… The Racing Debate is back in the schedules on Sunday

    I guess they were just taking a break because they were covering some Hong Kong meetings

    Still haven't got used to the Irish racing being on Racing TV...….. but I have noticed more split-screenage

    I didn't see it myself but I read that there were 3 races on screen at the same time one day in the last week or so

     

    2019 Swinton Hurdle/ Victoria Cup - Tips & Trends

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Victoria Cup

    Been looking at age, weight, draw, D winners ……… and ability to act on soft ground

    I had Rip Orff as one of my final 3 and he has a fantastic record in big field Ascot 7F handicaps and fits all the trends and acts on soft and is only 2lb higher than his last win ……. but I've got a feeling that last year was his year. He went up a lot in the weights and I'm wary of handicappers who have a terrific year, I think they can't carry on  improving for another season !

    So I've gone for ……..

    Presidential 9/1

    Alemaratalyoum 25/1

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