kroni

Medvedev v Dimitrov
For me this match is a total no contest. Gregor has a terrible match-up here. A clash of very similar styles.
Medvedev has more than enough to beat him at his own game, and has had  2 days off, to recover from his slight thigh strain. I don't think the win over Federer was spectacular for Gregor. Fed is 38 years old, so he was quite likely to run outta gas in  the latter part of the 4th and 5th set. 
Look, at this level, players are unbelievably good ... every player can hit the ball. So the game boils down to who makes the right decisions at the right time, and who plays the big points better. In my opinion, Gregor makes bad choices at the worst possible time, while Medvedev does the opposite. Gregor is a great player, but there is some subconcious barrier that stops him from going to the highest level. Medvedev has amazing court craft. He understands what to do and when to do it. You can't teach this stuff. At this stage a player either has it, or doesn't.  It's like a top striker in soccer. He knows, without looking where the goalkeeper is, and what he has to do to score. 
So how to make money here ? 1st set is critical. I think if Medvedev wins it, he wins very easily in 3.  
For me taking Medvedev at 4 to 10 is not to good. Maybe the best bet is to essentially lay the match going to 5 sets, by just betting total sets 3 and 4 for an equal stake.
I see a 1 sided bashing here.
Nadal v Berrittini
Never seen Nadal play this well. He is crushing the ball, with an intensity that is almost inhuman. I would be going under 31.5 total games here, in what should be a blow out. I just don't think Berrittini will get those easy service holds, and could get demolished here.

Riviera Nights 3.05 Ascot (Win 12/1Skybet)
Sold for £120k in the Autumn Sales, Riviera Nights 2019 form figures of 3, 0 and 0 do not look good. However these were in higher class races than this one. With top jockey W Buick, top trainer Richard Hannon, a distance winner and down in class, what's not to like. He will surely go close.

135 Deauville - Spinning Memories @ 5/2 Bet365

unlucky @power90 , well done wiinners, thanks BH, roll on the next comp

400 Deauville - Marmelo @ 2/1 Betfair

well done winners, thanks BH for the comp

225 Goodwood - Duke of Hazzard @ 3/1 Bet365

225 Goodwood - Duke of Hazzard @ 3/1 Bet365

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Been waiting for Buck Dancing to run again after his very profitable win for us at Southwell last time. He beat For Jim who duly bolted up on his next start at Perth so proof that you had two very well handicapped horses as nothing got near them at Southwell. He is back over fences tomorrow and even off a 10lbs higher mark I still think he is well handicapped. As I said prior to the Southwell race I think the handicapper has underrated the Stratford run behind Earth Leader and Buck Dancing looks more like a 120 horse. Interestingly connections have stepped him up to a class 3 here and the fact he is running against a horse who finished 4th in the Summer Plate (El Terremoto) shows what a different level we are dealing with. Still he gets a lot of weight from him and El Terremoto isn't proven at this trip. Old Salt won at Cartmel on the same day as the Summer Plate and looks like he will stay this far, but I thought that race fell apart with the ground seemingly against a few. Powerful Symbol is likely to make the running and although well beaten by Ascokastar in the end at Worcester that was his first run for a while and so could come on for that. With Bells Of Ainsworth not having run since last April I think Buck Dancing has a decent chance of going in again and 7/2 is a fair price to land the 7.25, with Powerful Symbol the main danger.

Gone for a Goodwood double on Pinatubo 2.25 who was extremely impressive as Ascot (expect Visinari to improve a lot, but will have to!),  and Strativarius 3.35, better than 3/1 double most bookies.

150 Ascot - Aroha @ 20/1 e-w Bet365
Ran well over CD last time when 3rd on good to soft, race split in 2 groups and the she won her group nicely

435 Deauville - Impulsif @ 4/1 Betfair

1620 C - Miss Jabeam @ 25-1 ew BetVictor

1410 MR - Ingleby Hollow @ 14-1 
1425 Nb - Reshoun @ 10-1 
1525 Cu - On A Session @ 20-1 
1540 Nb - Betty's Hope @ 28-1 
4 x £2 ew singles and £0.50 ew trebles(x4)

Dame Malliot has an each way chance in the 2.40 Newmarket today at 14-1 [4 places] with Skybet

Just in case it wasnt clear these are Ted's selections for the Open
Outright: McIlroy 17/2 BetVic
1st Rnd Leader: McIlroy 20/1 Hills
Top European: McIlroy 4/1 Laddies
Top Former Winner: McIlroy 7/4 bet365
Top Irish Player: McIlroy 4/9 betfred
Top GB/Ire Player: McIlroy 11/4 Unibet
McIlroy to get Hole In One: 33/1 betway
Best of luck Ted, hope he does it for you mate

OMG, 3 Winners and a second

Peter Wright wins. Lovely little title there for Peter who has now 2 wins and a final in the last 3 years here. 

1st and 3rd .....ordinarily id split bank 55 and carry 55 over to next week but with bad run of horses recently ive recouped all recent losses so ill start afresh next week  

Fri 3.00 - bet365 Trophy
My tried & trusted method for whittling down big fields ........ youngest 2 ages which in this case is 4 and 5 year olds, a Distance win, race fit ............ and then if I still have too many, trainers in form and whim
Left me with 3
Secret Advisor 13/2
Kings Advice 12/1
Time To Study 20/1
all prices bet365
 

A lot of 2nds at the moment which is frustrating although at least a couple of them were e/w to get some cash back. The opener at Worcester on Monday features Master Sunrise who of course was a massive gamble when I put him up at Bangor last time going from 25/1 to a SP of 9/2 only for him to unseat at the first. Sadly we aren't getting 25s about him, but he does have Richard Johnson on top and he rode him to victory at Southwell last summer and he was also placed on him over course and distance off a mark of 107. I think it is a big plus he is back on top and although he always comes attached with risks he is worth backing e/w at 15/2. Legal OK is a horse I put up at Fontwell and Earth Leader beat him fair and square although it wasn't helped by the fact he was taken on for the lead, but at the end of the day Earth Leader is a much better horse than he is. However that run still makes him look well handicapped off 88 here. I have just watched back his run at Fontwell last month and you would be worried about the step up in trip, but I wonder if It might help him as he will be going too quick for plenty and get them off the bridle and they might just struggle to peg him back if he gets an easy lead. The one concern I do have is maybe a small field that he could do it to might be more up his street, but I still have to have him onside at 9/2. Moreece is actually the best handicapped based on pointing ratings, but I don't really fancy him. He was well beaten at Ffos Las and the first two home that day haven't done much for the form since. I think the bigger dangers are the two horses who were 1st and 4th at Warwick last time. That was a Class 4 so both are dropping down in grade. The Manuscript won and his jockey takes off the weight he was put up for the win. Strictly speaking Tanrudy shouldn't reverse the form, but he has had a wind op and it might well see him see out the race better.
 
The next race sees Asockastar back in handicap company. He did us a couple of nice turns when winning at Leicester and especially at Fakenham earlier in the year and hopefully he can land the hat-trick for us. Now he isn't chucked in off 125, but if you remember my Stratford preview I said that they had chosen the wrong race for him and they should have run him in the handicap hunter chase as he looked well handicapped off 117. In hindsight he wouldn't have won that because Risk A Fine would have outclassed him and to be fair he ran as well as could have been expected in the big race when 3rd to Wonderful Charm. The handicapper put him up 8lbs for that effort, but crucially his jockey can claim 7lbs so he is essentially back to his old mark. He is dropping down in trip to 2m4f, but that doesn't concern me at all as he has plenty of pace and I think he can cope with that. I also don't think this is a strong race for the grade. Al Shahir is an obvious danger, but he fell last time and has burst before so both those things have to be a concern and as much as he might win he makes the market given his price. Cillian's Well was running well when hampered and unseating at Ffos Las last month, but that wasn't a strong race. Forever My Friend won a hunter chase at Fontwell last year and was then 2nd in the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 115. He then went back into handicap company, but ran poorly. That Fontwell win was in a bad race although if he is strong in the betting then that has to be respected given his trainer. Having said that I that Asockastar is the better horse and he only has to carry 1lbs more. It is a shame there aren't 8 runners but I am still going to back him e/w at 7/1 because the Skelton horse does concern me.

old newton cup
Kellys Dino & Indainanoplis both 16/1 e/w + RFC & also e/w doubles with Escobar 12/1 & Zhue Feng 25/1 in the 2,25 SD

400 Sandown - Hyanna @ 18/1 e-w William Hill