Marek76

First day of World Cup and already got egg on me face hahaha 

When a legit 9/1 shot make Russia look like a vintage Brazil...   

@Marek76
PM sent

The Glik alert: the Polish gladiator is on his way to a speedy recovery. 
https://twitter.com/DKaniewski/status/1005847940223643650
 

Call me bonkers, but the Saudis at 9/1 (10.00) is nothing short of outrageous!  

Take out the Peru match and they lost 2-1 to both Italy and Germany, and beat Algeria and Greece 2-0 - that's decent form!
Russia are sooooo over-estimated in my opinion, they are hopeless and winless in 7 matches (last 4 being atrocious) now and they'll be bang under it come kick off.
This isn't about historical trends of shocks in opening matches, this is just a match that is horrendously priced and I wouldn't back Russia against Barnet right now.
Saudi Arabia Win @ 9/1 (10.00) Bet365

Grabbed this from the lobby, well done Marek   I'll set the league table up in the top post after the weekend.
Next week's game is set up and ready to reg.

The Glik alert: the Polish gladiator is on his way to a speedy recovery. 
https://twitter.com/DKaniewski/status/1005847940223643650
 

A sex scandal is reportedly surrounding the Mexico national team just one week before the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia is due to begin.
Eight Mexican players allegedly "partied" with approximately "30 escorts" after the team's 1-0 victory over Scotland in an international friendly on Sunday, according to Mexican gossip magazine TV Notas.
The story, also been reported by Spanish publication AS, soccer-only website Goal.com, and Mail Online, embroils a number of big-name players including LA Galaxy forward Giovani dos Santos and Standard Liège goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa (both pictured above) in the scandal.
The party was reportedly held in Las Lomas, Mexico City, and did not finish until "late the following morning" as the players were given the night off, reports AS.
https://img.joemonster.org/upload/rdw/1697917ac3ab8e9YA_XTBiqsXaE5a.mp4
 

I meant to back him as a top goalscorer for Poland (@12 as opposed to Lewandowski @1.5), not in the outright market.

I'm sorry to hear you lost a friend. And thank you for the support, we'll need all the help we can get  The last time (and only one) I visited Wales was back in October 2004 to see Poland win vs Wales in Cardiff. Good memories! And the quickest 10 quid lost was when I bought an air horn ('of course you can take it with you to the stadium!') only to lose it at the gates few minutes after  
Regarding Poland's chances: I'd rather be pleasantly surprised rather than to get overhyped and get dissapointed after we go out ouf the tournament. Especially as I did experience the latter version so many times before
Regarding Lewandowski and the whole top goal scorer market. I believe the value lies in those who can bag a serious number of goals at a group stage. Just like Oleg Salenko did during the World Cup USA in 1994, where he scored 5 goals in one group game and shared the top spot with Stoichkov, both of them scoring 6 times during the whole tournament. 
Lewandowski will be heavily guarded so the value might be in backing one of the attacking midfielders to become the top goalscorer for Poland. The player I have in mind is Kamil Grosicki of Hull City @12 He's really keen to move clubs in the summer so he needs to perform well in order to do just that. He scored 3 times (+3 assists) during the WC qualifiers (2nd best result after Lewandowski with 16 goals). He's not goal shy at the club level either so he could actually deliver. 

Let me continue 

Mladen Krstajic,the new head coach,was a decent player with the decent professional career. His best days as player were in German Bundesliga where he played for clubs like Werder Bremen and Schalke 04. He was also playing for Serbia and was the part of the team which had that catastophic tournament in WC in Germany 2006.
As coach hi has no experience of what sort ever! Zero! Nothing! 

And this is the first and most important reason why i think this tournament will be another dissapointment. Krstajic has no coaching expirience,no right attitude and no authority over players i'm affraid.
And this something that cost us a lot in the past. 
Our shameless FA sacked a coach who maybe didn't was that popular but who delivered and put another man in his place. You simply DON"T do that ahead of WC

Our captain (Branislav Ivanovic,ex Chelsea now Zenit) was stripped of the captain's tape without any explanation.Rumors said that this was done because he was loyal to Muslin. After so many years in the national team as a captain and right before WC? You DON'T do that!

Further,
 Because of everything I mentioned in the first post, it's clear that the new coach is set up to do something else. This something is to be quiet and to not make trouble.For example that means that he "has to take" some players to WC. We have this joke in Serbia that even head coach was suprised when he saw final list/cut for the tournament (don't know if you get the joke - it means that someone else made the list,not him)
You assume correctly that on the list is Sergej, but also several other players who did not play in the qualifications, and many standard players were dropped.
Matija Nastasic (Schalke04) (ok,he's injured), Jagos Vukovic(Verona), NIkola Maksimovic(Napoli/Spartak Moscow),Ivan Obradovic (Anderlecht), Ljubomir Fejsa (Bennfica), Nebojsa Gudelj (Guangzhou), Nemanja Maksimovic (Valencia), Mijat Gacinovic (Eintracht Frankfurt),Nikola Milunovic (BATE Borisov), Stefan Mitrovic (Gent)..all left out from WC squad. You DON'T do that after they made it through the campaign.
In order to make things look even worse, our new coach used some of these players in friendly matches in March and now they are not in the team. If he already wanted to make changes, then in March against Morocco and Nigeria should be played by those who will travel to Russia. You DON'T to that!

Now in the team we have several complete debutants and players who are for the first time in the team. And there are also those managerial players that I wrote about and who are heading to the WC just to be to sell after it..Two of them are from my favorite club - Red Star - Nebojsa Rodic and Nemanja Radonjic. I love them very much,but they didn't deserved to be called up. Especially the first. Then Tosic from Besiktas who played some role in the qualis,but nothing special. Grujic from Cardiff (you know him @StevieDay1983 ) had a horrible season and played a bit.. a youngster from Fiorentina - Milenkovic who is completely unexpirienced at this level,Jovic from Eintracht Frankfurt..etc
Of course that some of these guys are very talented,some of them were part of this golden generation from New Zealand, but the World Cup does not serve to play young players for the following qualifications. And we'll exactly do this. It's WRONG!

If I analyze our system and the positions of individual players it is clear that we will be in huge problems. From 3-5-2 wi'll switch to 4-3-3 E.g.
Defenders
Rukavina (which is a weak link anyway) has no substitute on the right back. Of course, that can be played by Bane Ivanovic, but the problem is that he did not play at all in the qualifications as full-right back, only the position of central defender.
No matter who will start on the positions of central-defenders the fact is that it's gonna be combination of two centre-backs who never played with each other before. And with Kolarov on left side and who is more wing-back player and very attacking-minded i really fear what can happen. Vladimir Stojkovic is our no.1 goalkeeper. On good day he can be fantastic,but on the bad day..well - let's say that he can do "wonders" like Karius. 

Midfield
In the midfield we have this dynamic duo from the EPL - Matic (Man Utd) & Milivojevic (Crystal Palace). They are the spine of this team,but literally don't have the substitude. Grujic is not at this level unfortunately. If one of them gets injured or suspended we're in deep,deep trouble. This is the part of team where we lost the most,i would say. No Gudelj,no Fejsa, no Gacinovic (who is more all-round player) and no Maksimovic from Valencia. 
I gotta feeling that we're gonna suffer defensively..huge

Wingers,offensive midfield
Our most creative players are Sergej,Tadic and Ljajic.
Sergej,like I said,wasn't part of team during qualification time. And because of injury he was not in the squad for the International friendlies back in March. So,this preparation period is actually only chance for him to get with team-mates. He's still very young but because all the rumble with previous coach Muslin,there is h-u-g-e pressure on his sholders to deliver what is expected. I think that if we don't going to get a decent result in Russia,the greatest critics will be thrown at him. And i really don't know how he will cope with this pressure. He can easilly under-perform
Ljajic (Torino) is a talented player i'll give you that,but a player with very problematic mentality and additude. He has long,long history of various behavioral and incident problems with the national team and in his club career as well. Because of this he have joined the team at the very end of qualifications. Frankly - don't know what to expect from him.
Tadic was convincingly our best player during qualifications. He opened the campaign in an impressive manner, and later he slightly dropped in the game. It was not unexpected. After all, he is not really a world class, otherwise he would play in a much better team than Southampton. I expect a lot from him, but I'm not sure how much he will succeed in the new formation and the new role ..
And what is more important no one actually knows what is Krstajic's idea with this three players and does he think to put them on the pitch in the same time? Maybe the following match against Bolivia will give us some answers..
Zivkovic is a very interesting player, but it seems that our coach's idea is to use him deeper in the midfield, which I think he can not play. He's very poor in defense. 
Kostic&Radonjic - i see both of them as a players from bench

Forwards
Mitovic,Prijovic,Jovic

Jovic is new here. Mitrovic is supposed to start every match,Prijovic is simmilar type..the only thing that matters about these guys is that they all lack creativity and heavily depending on their team mates. 

Conclusion
I really smell a disaster here. As you can all see from my analysys there is simply too much of YOU DON'T DO THAT here. Almost half of team is new,coach is new,not a happiest selection...this is simply not the best squad. More the most popular choice,a team gathered to be loved by the fans.
And there is a big problem beyond every other that i mentioned. It is a question of mentality and behavior. 
Our teams in the past have already shown such weaknesses. Even at the World Cups. Personally I feel the lack of the right motive even though this is the biggest competition. I do not see the idea that this is the climax of the season and even career. There are  signs of a feverish relaxation, as if there is not enough focus ... like going on a vacation, not a big competition. The team lost the discipline that adorned him with the previous coach and I struggle to see how Krstajic gonna handle this.
If we lose the first match against Costarica i think that we will completely fall apart

Betting angle
Serbia not to qualify @1,70
Serbia total points 0-2 @3,0 (or even 0-1 @5,0)
Serbia total points 0 @15

Haha, you remind me of how I was before Wales entered the 2016 European Championship. You raise a valid point. The World Cup is a different animal. It's probably why some teams flourish in the Euros over the years yet others seem to play better at the World Cup.
I'll be rooting for you guys. My best friend sadly took his own life in 2004. His grandparents and mother were Polish so we always kept track of their progress at major tournaments. I've kept keeping an eye on you guys ever since. Would love to see you do well. Lewandowski is surely worth an e/w bet for top scorer at 34.00? Especially with some bookies paying out on the top 6 places.

Very nice!!!  I'll post my one from the other thread from this morning...
 
 

yes any order.
9/2 with blacktype
4/1-coral,betstars, boylesports,sunbets

Cheers @Marek76! I'm surprised you're feeling so pessimistic about your chances. You've got a very solid squad even with the injury to Glik. You were unlucky not to go further at Euro 2016. I think so long as you have Lewandowski, Milik, and some creativity in midfield then you stand every chance of progressing to the 2nd Round. I think you could be dark horses for the Quarter-Finals if Glik is back fit.

another way of being against poland is senegal/columbia dual forecast which is 4/1

If you noticed an odds movement on Poland accross the board that would be due to the injury of Kamil Glik (AS Monaco), who decided to shoot an overhead kick during a 5-a-side training session game and landed straight on his back, damaging his shoulder in the process. The latest news indicate he'll be out for 5-6 weeks (he might make it in time to feature in the finals if we manage to scrape through  ) He's the pillar of our back four and without him I'm honestly worried about the state of our defence. Think of him as John Terry in his prime for the English national team.
There's a joke doing the rounds in Poland for a long while that whenever we play in the World Cup or Euros, there are 3 group games that could be characterised as:
1. The opening game
2. Win or die
3. Saving the face
I for one am quite sceptical about our chances in Russia. The opening game vs Senegal will be decisive and if Mane and Co shift the gear up, we'll be in trouble. All of our defenders currently at the disposal are slow (apart from Piszczek from Dortmund) , combined with physical style of African teams (the style we're supposed to play), we might see the copy/paste scenario of Poland's games in S. Korea in 2002, which read as follows: Loss - Loss - Win , and corresponds directly with the game description above (1-3).
We have a decent generation of players but a large group of them will retire after this World Cup, their hay days were during the Euros in France. Lewandowski is about to leave Bayern (for Juventus?) and his mind might be elsewhere if he doesn't do all the paperwork before the first kick off.
I predict we will not qualify from the group and will try our best to avoid the last spot in the group in our final game versus Japan. Japanese football have progressed immensly so losing to them is not out of the question either.
Poland: zero points in the group stage @26
Poland: 1 point in the group stage @12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

This is good info marek, I have always been impressed by Glik when I have seen him. Senegal look tempting at 5/2 in the game v Poland. I have backed this and also sold the time of the second Senegal goal at 81.

If you noticed an odds movement on Poland accross the board that would be due to the injury of Kamil Glik (AS Monaco), who decided to shoot an overhead kick during a 5-a-side training session game and landed straight on his back, damaging his shoulder in the process. The latest news indicate he'll be out for 5-6 weeks (he might make it in time to feature in the finals if we manage to scrape through  ) He's the pillar of our back four and without him I'm honestly worried about the state of our defence. Think of him as John Terry in his prime for the English national team.
There's a joke doing the rounds in Poland for a long while that whenever we play in the World Cup or Euros, there are 3 group games that could be characterised as:
1. The opening game
2. Win or die
3. Saving the face
I for one am quite sceptical about our chances in Russia. The opening game vs Senegal will be decisive and if Mane and Co shift the gear up, we'll be in trouble. All of our defenders currently at the disposal are slow (apart from Piszczek from Dortmund) , combined with physical style of African teams (the style we're supposed to play), we might see the copy/paste scenario of Poland's games in S. Korea in 2002, which read as follows: Loss - Loss - Win , and corresponds directly with the game description above (1-3).
We have a decent generation of players but a large group of them will retire after this World Cup, their hay days were during the Euros in France. Lewandowski is about to leave Bayern (for Juventus?) and his mind might be elsewhere if he doesn't do all the paperwork before the first kick off.
I predict we will not qualify from the group and will try our best to avoid the last spot in the group in our final game versus Japan. Japanese football have progressed immensly so losing to them is not out of the question either.
Poland: zero points in the group stage @26
Poland: 1 point in the group stage @12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We're back for June with the Punters Lounge £150 added Poker League.  All games are played in the PokerStars Home Games PL Poker Club.
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Good luck!
 
League Table

 
 

After the good turnout last week for the PLO 'fun' week, I am wondering whether it might be good to include a PLO week in the league, maybe as Leg 3? We won't start this month, but thoughts/objections welcomed so we can decide for next month.

PLO was fun, thanks everyone for supporting 

I remember way back we used to run a sunday million syndicate....10 weeks and we all took a turn at full buy in and any winnings split amongst syndicate....I am guessing there may be no interest these days???

4 tournaments, total of $1275,3