Group F Predictions (Germany, Mexico, Sweden, South Korea)

[StevieDay1983]

 

Germany are undoubtedly the favourites to top this group and also many people's favourites to win the whole tournament. The remaining qualification spot is wide open. Mexico edge favour with the bookies but South Korea and Sweden are both more than capable of pipping them to that other qualification berth. What do you guys think?

[StevieDay1983]

Almost half a year on from this original post and Germany remain the clear favourites. I think I'm favouring Mexico to take that second place spot because they have reached the last 16 for the past six World Cup tournaments. The fact they have also exited the tournament at that stage on those six occasions doesn't matter! I'm not overly impressed with Sweden and think they could even finish bottom behind South Korea. Then again, South Korea are not exactly tearing up trees this time around.

[Dalan Quaice]

Germany definitely, defending their cup win 2014. I cant see any group team beating them. South Korea is another team to watch. Very strong during qualifications. Between Sweden and Mexico, I will choose Mexico.

Team           P     W    D.  L    PTS

Germany.     3.     3     0.    0     9

Mexico   .      3.     2     0.    1.   6

Sweden         3.     1    1.    1.    4

South Korea 3.     0    1.    2     1

•  

 

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, Dalan Quaice said:

Germany definitely, defending their cup win 2014. I cant see any group team beating them. South Korea is another team to watch. Very strong during qualifications. Between Sweden and Mexico, I will choose Mexico.

Team           P     W    D.  L    PTS

Germany.     3.     3     0.    0     9

Mexico   .      3.     2     0.    1.   6

Sweden         3.     1    1.    1.    4

South Korea 3.     0    1.    2     1

•  

 

I don't mean to pick holes in your theory but the points can't finish like that. Sweden would be on 1 point because Germany will have won all their games. Mexico have then beaten Sweden and South Korea for their 6 points. Meaning Sweden and South Korea would be on 1 point each for their draw.

[Dalan Quaice]

Thanks for spotting the typo. The mistake is Mexico drawing with Sweden not losing. Thanks. Was busy in the office today. Thank God it is Friday. Still out and about.

[Tel79]

I can't see past Germany, looks like the way the competition will go is that their path is only going to get hard at the quarter finals. Mexico and Sweden are going to battle it out for 2nd and they both play each other in the final game, winner takes all, well.... winner takes 2nd place. 

[StevieDay1983]

On 5/31/2018 at 3:48 PM, Tel79 said:

I can't see past Germany, looks like the way the competition will go is that their path is only going to get hard at the quarter finals. Mexico and Sweden are going to battle it out for 2nd and they both play each other in the final game, winner takes all, well.... winner takes 2nd place. 

Yeah, I'm backing Germany to go a long way as they always seem to do. However, in classic German fashion, they always seem to bumble their way through the group stages. Can you see them dropping any points in this group? Mexico have run them close before in the knockout stages.

[sajtion]

germany will flop this world cup. i am not even backing them to make it out of the group. they have the least talent bunch of players in decades. mexico, sweden and korea may all get points against them.

[waynecoyne]

8 hours ago, sajtion said:

germany will flop this world cup. i am not even backing them to make it out of the group. they have the least talent bunch of players in decades. mexico, sweden and korea may all get points against them.

no one can accuse you of being boring sajtion

I do like a contrarian viewpoint

[Mindfulness]

4 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

no one can accuse you of being boring sajtion

I do like a contrarian viewpoint

I don't know mate, I feel my Germany ante-post selection is starting to look a little sketchy with the Sane business and now this:

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12023/11397029/mesut-ozil-facing-germany-world-cup-fitness-battle

 

[waynecoyne]

1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

I don't know mate, I feel my Germany ante-post selection is starting to look a little sketchy with the Sane business and now this:

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12023/11397029/mesut-ozil-facing-germany-world-cup-fitness-battle

 

there's likely to be a big team that fails to qualify, but more likely imo to be portugal or argentina

[Marek76]

A sex scandal is reportedly surrounding the Mexico national team just one week before the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia is due to begin.

Eight Mexican players allegedly "partied" with approximately "30 escorts" after the team's 1-0 victory over Scotland in an international friendly on Sunday, according to Mexican gossip magazine TV Notas.

The story, also been reported by Spanish publication AS, soccer-only website Goal.com, and Mail Online, embroils a number of big-name players including LA Galaxy forward Giovani dos Santos and Standard Liège goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa (both pictured above) in the scandal.

The party was reportedly held in Las Lomas, Mexico City, and did not finish until "late the following morning" as the players were given the night off, reports AS.

https://img.joemonster.org/upload/rdw/1697917ac3ab8e9YA_XTBiqsXaE5a.mp4

 

[Dalan Quaice]

Please, can someone translate this Mexico sex scandal into World Cup performance? 

First Mexico opening match against Germany vs Mexico on Sunday?

[StevieDay1983]

On 6/6/2018 at 11:51 PM, sajtion said:

germany will flop this world cup. i am not even backing them to make it out of the group. they have the least talent bunch of players in decades. mexico, sweden and korea may all get points against them.

Germany always do this, Sajtion. They do rubbish in the pre-tournament friendlies, scramble through their group, and then slowly improve as the tournament goes on.

[StevieDay1983]

11 hours ago, Dalan Quaice said:

Please, can someone translate this Mexico sex scandal into World Cup performance? 

First Mexico opening match against Germany vs Mexico on Sunday?

Maybe it's a good thing?  I still expect Mexico to reach the last 16. I think this could galvanise their squad.

[Dalan Quaice]

@StevieDay1983 Correct!!!!! More sex in Russia to motivate the players 

[Icongene]

On 06/06/2018 at 6:51 PM, sajtion said:

germany will flop this world cup. i am not even backing them to make it out of the group. they have the least talent bunch of players in decades. mexico, sweden and korea may all get points against them.

For the first time ever I agree with you

Edited June 12, 2018 by Icongene

[StevieDay1983]

8 hours ago, Icongene said:

For the first time ever I agree with you

Dismissing Germany before a World Cup has even started. That is nothing short of betting blasphemy! 

[waynecoyne]

fwiw;

our german agent has just arrived and i asked him if he was looking forward to the world cup and he 

grimaced and said no our team is not so good this time 

[Dalan Quaice]

Bookmaker agents. Becareful!!! Check German world cup history since 1919. Have NEVER failed to make it at quarter finals.

[Dalan Quaice]

My predictions for 1/8 knockout stage

C1-D2 France vs Croatia 

A1-B2 Uruguay vs Portugal 

B1-A2 Spain vs Russia 

D1-C2 Argentina vs Denmark 

E1-F2 Brazil vs Mexico 

G1-H2 England vs Poland

F1-E2 Germany vs Switzerland 

H1-G2 Columbia vs Belgium 

 

My prediction for 1/4

France vs Portugal 

Spain vs Argentina 

Brazil vs England 

Germany vs Columbia 

 

Semi Final

Portugal vs Spain

Brazil vs Germany 

 

Play offs for third position 

Portugal vs Germany 

 

Finals 

Brazil vs Spain

[sajtion]

having watched sweden and south korea recently in friendlies germany may get out of the group after all. sweden hasn't got anything in final third and korea are tactically poor

[StevieDay1983]

Germany vs Mexico

Group F starts this coming Sunday when reigning champions Germany open their tournament against Mexico in a 4pm BST kick-off at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. This is certain to be a preview that divides opinion with many members' on this forum having polarised views on how they will do.

Germany are the ultimate World Cup team. You only need to look at their performances over the years to see how prolific they are on the biggest stage. Four times winners, four times runner ups, four times 3rd place, and 4th place on one occasion. In fact, they have only failed to reach the quarter-finals at two tournaments and they were all the way back in 1938 and 1978.

Mexico are the veterans of 2nd Round qualification... and elimination. It is now six consecutive World Cups that the Mexicans have exited the tournament in the last 16. Under Juan Carlos Osorio, El Tricolor qualified comfortably for the World Cup finishing 5 points clear at the top of their group and 9 points clear of 5th placed USA.

Both sides have their problems coming into this tournament. German head coach Joachim Low has been criticised for not including the talented Leroy Sane in his squad with many suggesting Low's management has gone stale and he's too conservative to deliver another impressive World Cup performance.

Osorio needs to address the lack of goals his side have scored over recent games. It is now just 1 goal scored in their last 4 friendly games. However, on the plus side, they have managed to produce solid friendly performances against the likes of Iceland, Poland, and Belgium.

Personally, I think you need to be a fool to write off Germany. I've seen some very average Germany sides go to a World Cup before and still do the business. I look at this Germany side and still think they are a class unit. If they don't reach the semi-finals then I will be shocked. They usually start slowly in World Cups though and I wouldn't be surprised to see them held to a draw here. I'm probably just seeing a narrow win but I'm not confident enough to back an outright outcome.

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.80 with BetVictor

Mexico AH +1.5 @ 1.63 with 188Bet

[StevieDay1983]

Sweden vs South Korea

In what is arguably the least appealing game since the tournament opener between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Group F sides Sweden and South Korea face-off against each other in a 1pm BST kick-off this Monday afternoon at the Nizhny Novgorod Stadium in Nizhny Novgorod... try not to take your teeth out saying that!

Long gone are the heady days of USA '94 for Swedish fans and the 2002 World Cup on home soil for South Korean supporters. The memories of Thomas Brolin et al and the Guus Hiddink-inspired red army are fading with every passing year. These are two countries that have seen better days.

Janne Andersson's team have transitioned well to the post-Zlatan Ibrahimovic era. Nobody gave them a hope of qualifying for this World Cup. Their squad is far from one of the best they have had but they managed to navigate their way into the play-offs from a tough group that included France, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, and Belarus. They then defeated Italy 1-0 on aggregate in the play-offs effectively preventing two major footballing nations from attending this year's tournament. Party poopers.

Shin Tae-yong's players made hard work of qualifying from their group in the Asian section. Pipped to top spot by Iran (I say pipped but they were 7 points behind in a 10 game phase!) they then had Iran to thank for holding Syria to a draw with South Korea being held to a draw away to Uzbekistan in their final game. Had Syria won that game then they'd have condemned South Korea to the play-offs and qualified automatically themselves.

A win is a must for both teams here if they want to maintain realistic hopes of making it out of this group. Germany and Mexico are currently the favourites to qualify for the 2nd Round but both of these nations will have something to say about that. Sweden have only lost 3 of their last 10 games compared to South Korea only winning one of their last six matches. I am backing Sweden to do the business here. They are a very cohesive unit now since the retirement of Ibrahimovic and could be a team that relies on its team work and work rate to progress.

Sweden to win @ 2.08 with Unibet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.53 with SunBets

[Xcout]

Let's look at the background of the participations in World Cups of the participants in group F of Russia 2018:

Mexico
After being barred from taking part in the 1990 World Cup, the Mexican National Team has had a constant and stable participation that has seen it advance from the group stage in the following six participations, from United States 1994 to Brazil 2014. Except in this case, in the rest, statistics from 1998 onwards are used, because in that year the World Cup was extended to 32 teams.

Conclusion: 100% Effectiveness in moving to the next stage.

Germany
The current world champion, the team managed to qualify winning the 10 games of his qualification. After the prohibition to participate in the World Cup in 1950, the team has participated in all subsequent editions, advancing from the group stage in all of them and winning 4 times the title.

Conclusion: 100% Effectiveness to move to the next round.

South Korea
Frequent participant since 1986 in the World Cup, their best moment was when they were local along with Japan, where they achieved the 4th place. Of its 8 recent participations, only two have passed the group stage, the one mentioned in 2002 and in South Africa 2010, in addition they have remained in the group stage.

Conclusion: 40% Effectiveness to move to the next round.

Sweden
After two editions missed (South Africa 2010, Brazil 2014) the team won the qualification for this edition of the World Cup. In their last two appearances Korea and Japan 2002 and Germany 2006, the team made progress to the next stage.

Conclusion: 100% Effectiveness to move to the next round, however it has only qualify  to 2 of the last 5 editions, so only 40% of reaching the World Cup. Stands out that he is undefeated in the last two World Cups that they have participated.

Based on the previous results, I consider that the group's matches could be as follows:

What indicates that Germany wins the group and advances first, and the second place will be in dispute in the Mexico vs Sweden match, * depending on the result of Sweden vs South Korea, they could get tied in points to this match. Therefore it will be key to the aspirations of both squads and the final positions in the group. Considering the odds, and the antecedents I consider that the value is in Mexico with greater probability and subsequently with Sweden to a respective share of 2.10 and 2.25 in Bet 365 in the Group market - Qualification Yes/No. Considering that one of them advances, it could be considered as a safe bet with a yield of .10 or .25 depending on what happens at the end.

The other market in Bet 365 that gives us some interesting odds the Group - Forecast 1-2, in which the options of: 1st Germany - 2nd Mexico with a 2.87 momio 1st Germany - 2nd Sweden with a 3.25 momio In the same way with a greater probability the binomial Germany-Mexico.

And lastly, the final finishing market in their group, the South Korean option with 1.83 odds, which I think is quite high considering the rivals in the group and although in 3 of the last 5 disputed has avoided the last place , none of its rivals has done so in the analyzed period.

In short, a group that offers intense matches and although there are marked trends, everything is to be defined once the ball rolls.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2018 by Xcout

[Xcout]

Great Analysis @StevieDay1983!

[waynecoyne]

Raphael honigstein in the racing post today expects Germany to cause mexico problems from set pieces and picked out hummels and boating, stating that the Mexicans lack power. Their respective goal minutes with spreadex to buy are 6 and 2. Their goals and games stats are 5 in 64 and 1 in 71 the latter not being very impressive but that is reflected in the price. A player to look out for also for Germany is goretzka who scored twice v mexico last year in the confederations cup. He looks a lively goalscoring midfielder but is unlikely to start.

recommendation:

buy hummels goal minutes at 6 and boateng at 2 spreadex

Edited June 17, 2018 by waynecoyne

[giraldi]

Germany – Mexico

I do not know why but Germany starts on force almost every final tournament. There are rumors that Germany has not a such great team this tournament … and maybe they are right but I think they have the force to beat Mexico.  

My selection is

9. Germany AH (-1.5) @ 2.33 Pinnacle   

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

Raphael honigstein in the racing post today expects Germany to cause mexico problems from set pieces and picked out hummels and boating, stating that the Mexicans lack power. Their respective goal minutes with spreadex to buy are 6 and 2. Their goals and games stats are 5 in 64 and 1 in 71 the latter not being very impressive but that is reflected in the price. A player to look out for also for Germany is goretzka who scored twice v mexico last year in the confederations cup. He looks a lively goalscoring midfielder but is unlikely to start.

recommendation:

buy hummels goal minutes at 6 and boateng at 2 spreadex

I like the Hummels bet more than Boateng. I've decided to buy Germany's headed goal minutes at 15 with SPIN. Doesn't include own goals but it's 18 or 19 to buy where it does so I'll risk it for the lower price. Always possible that a set piece will lead to a knockdown and a goal from the boot but 15 is a palatable enough price.

[waynecoyne]

sorry for encouraging you harry to place a losing bet .

well how shit were Germany? this could be a blessing in disguise if low realises he needs to change it.

They were ponderous predictable and slow. I think he needs to replace muller and khedira and bring in more dynamic players like reus brandt goretzka. Will he realise though?