Mrsha

Westerlo dnb @1.86 & o2.75 @1.95
Min price to bet: dnb @1.80 or -1/4 @2.10; o2.75 @1.84 or o3 @2.08
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: Waregem's rb Ciranni is suspended, cb/cm Tambedou injured; Westerlo's lw/rw Chadli doubtful
Note: Waregem are fighting against relegation, Westerlo trying to qualify for UECL playoffs. The hosts have improved after a terrible start, and they are in good form - they have won 2 of their last 3 in Bel JL, they are decent 2-2-2 in last 6; and they have qualified for the Bel Cup semifinals, with a realistic chance to reach the final, as their 1/2f opponent is Mechelen. They've brought in two experienced players during the World Cup break, cm Vormer and am/wng/fw Bruls, and both have had a very positive effect on team overall; Zulte indeed look stronger after the World Cup. Still, we believe that the higher quality visitors should be slightly bigger favs here - Westerlo have lost 2 games in a row (for the first time in a few years), but they certainly didn't deserve to lose to runaway leaders Genk on Tue, after they were the better team for most of the match (2-3 ft, with very efficient Genk, who have scored on all of their 3 shots on target). Waregem got a big away win at poor Anderlecht (3-2) on Wed, which also means they have had one day less of rest before this game, and it's another tiny bonus for the visitors. Goals look likely here, and price looks really good, even for this time of the year and cold weather - it will be cold in Waregem tomorrow, but without snow or rain. Est TG 3.20+, this should be a watchable game in which both teams create chances. Both Waregem and Westerlo have been quite liked by the betting market in recent games, and it's difficult to speculate where this price could move tomorrow; but unless there are nasty surprises in starting lineups (always a possibility due to congested schedule), both away hcap and tg+ look good.

Rennes -1/2 @1.99
Min price to bet: -1/2 @1.95
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: key lw/cf Terrier out for Rennes (out for season); cm Xeka also unavailable (long-term absentee cm Santamaria still out as well, expected to be back in next couple of weeks)
Note: Terrier's injury is a huge blow for Rennes' ambition, he is a fantastic player that can play in multiple positions, he is one of the best finishers in Ligue 1, and one of the most underrated players in last couple of years - and frankly, it's quite puzzling he is still at Rennes. He has scored 21 goals in 37 Ligue 1 games last season (just 2 from penalties); and this season, he's been Rennes' (by far) best rated player, top scorer (9 goals in 16 games) and joint-leader in assists (4 ast). He suffered a cruciate ligament injury in first half of Rennes' 2-1 home win v Nice on Jan 2 (though before getting injured, he scored a goal for 1-0); and he will be a big miss in the remaining part of the season. Still, Rennes have a huge depth in attacking areas, and this will be a big chance for players like Doku and Sulemana to shine again - both of them have shown plenty of promise, well both of them are quite an established names already, but injuries have slowed them down quite a bit in last couple of years... both are healthy now, and Doku is a natural replacement for Terrier in Rennes' current formation. We have initially downgraded Rennes by 0.15 rtg points after Terrier's injury, there is no guarantee that that adjustment is good/accurate and we may be proven wrong until the end of the season, but it's also difficult not to trust in this hugely talented Rennes' squad. Now, even with Terrier, 4th placed Rennes did have problems on their travels this season, as superb 8-0-1 home record (8 straight wins) is in stark contrast with 2-4-2 on the road; with a small excuse being that, except PSG, they have played each of other top 6 teams on the road (Lens, Marseille, Monaco, Lille). Obviously, they are well aware of their away-game problems, and it was one of the focuses of coach Genesio's press conf today. Clermont won at Lyon 1-0, beating us both on hcap and TG in the process, in what looked like embarrassing bets already early in 1st half (despite market agreeing with us), and terrible Lyon performance overall. Not taking anything from Clermont, but Lyon did make things easy for them there, with incredibly lethargic, unimaginative, truly abysmal performance, which at times looked like as if they didn't care at all. This win has pushed Clermont up to 9th place, well above expectations, but also well above the position their performances so far have merited - luck factor has played an important positive role for Clermont so far. They've done better on the road than at home though, 3 defeats in last 5 at home, including defeats vs relegation candidates Brest and Troyes, who have both scored 3 goals here - and this certainly looks like a venue where Rennes should be able to start on improving on their away record. Weather conditions should be ok; Rennes' rw Bourigeaud has been absolutely sensational since Oct and may have to take on even more responsibilities after Terrier's injury; but him and plethora of attacking talent that Rennes have (Guiri, Kalimuendo, Doku, midfield led by Majer and two fantastic fullbacks in Traore and Truffert/Meling) should make sure that our estimated away win of 54.5% is not too high.
Nice -3/4 @2.13
Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.07 or -1/2 @1.84
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: the hosts' first choice rb Atal is still out-injured; head coach Favre has been sacked, with his assistant and former Nice player Didier Digard taking over hc duties
Note: Ok, we wouldn't have backed Nice here if Favre was still at helm - while he is a quality coach, things were just not all right at Nice since his appointment in the summer, the performances and results were far below expectations, with culmination a few days ago in embarrassing Coupe de France elimination against low-league side Le Puy... and Nice played with very strong 11 there, almost their best possible. Former player Digard is a new coach, he was a member of a coaching staff already and knows the team inside out, but it remains to be seen how successful he will be. So basically, while it was obvious that change is needed, there are no guarantees that this will work, and for us to trust Nice immediately after a coach change is perhaps a bit of a gamble - but looking at their roster, there is no doubt that this is a team with plenty of high quality individuals, and with no doubt that Digard will have their respect, there are some elements that make us confident this will work out well for Nice in 2nd part of the season. Montpellier have shown some signs of improvement since their coach change in mid-Oct, but they still have to be considered as widely erratic side, quite dis-balanced, with their attack miles ahead of their defensive strength (and individual quality); and they also suffered a surprising Cup exit, vs 2nd league side Pau - although at least Montpellier played with a rotated lineup in that one. Ok weather conditions, we est Nice at 58% to win this, and considering their struggles this season, and quite a poor home record (2-3-3, just 6 goals scored in those 8 games), this price could perhaps improve - but ultimately, we do expect a positive reaction after a coach change from players, who have clearly underachieved as a group so far, and perhaps some extra effort to put the Cup embarrassment behind with 3 league points.

Rennes -1/2 @1.99
Min price to bet: -1/2 @1.95
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: key lw/cf Terrier out for Rennes (out for season); cm Xeka also unavailable (long-term absentee cm Santamaria still out as well, expected to be back in next couple of weeks)
Note: Terrier's injury is a huge blow for Rennes' ambition, he is a fantastic player that can play in multiple positions, he is one of the best finishers in Ligue 1, and one of the most underrated players in last couple of years - and frankly, it's quite puzzling he is still at Rennes. He has scored 21 goals in 37 Ligue 1 games last season (just 2 from penalties); and this season, he's been Rennes' (by far) best rated player, top scorer (9 goals in 16 games) and joint-leader in assists (4 ast). He suffered a cruciate ligament injury in first half of Rennes' 2-1 home win v Nice on Jan 2 (though before getting injured, he scored a goal for 1-0); and he will be a big miss in the remaining part of the season. Still, Rennes have a huge depth in attacking areas, and this will be a big chance for players like Doku and Sulemana to shine again - both of them have shown plenty of promise, well both of them are quite an established names already, but injuries have slowed them down quite a bit in last couple of years... both are healthy now, and Doku is a natural replacement for Terrier in Rennes' current formation. We have initially downgraded Rennes by 0.15 rtg points after Terrier's injury, there is no guarantee that that adjustment is good/accurate and we may be proven wrong until the end of the season, but it's also difficult not to trust in this hugely talented Rennes' squad. Now, even with Terrier, 4th placed Rennes did have problems on their travels this season, as superb 8-0-1 home record (8 straight wins) is in stark contrast with 2-4-2 on the road; with a small excuse being that, except PSG, they have played each of other top 6 teams on the road (Lens, Marseille, Monaco, Lille). Obviously, they are well aware of their away-game problems, and it was one of the focuses of coach Genesio's press conf today. Clermont won at Lyon 1-0, beating us both on hcap and TG in the process, in what looked like embarrassing bets already early in 1st half (despite market agreeing with us), and terrible Lyon performance overall. Not taking anything from Clermont, but Lyon did make things easy for them there, with incredibly lethargic, unimaginative, truly abysmal performance, which at times looked like as if they didn't care at all. This win has pushed Clermont up to 9th place, well above expectations, but also well above the position their performances so far have merited - luck factor has played an important positive role for Clermont so far. They've done better on the road than at home though, 3 defeats in last 5 at home, including defeats vs relegation candidates Brest and Troyes, who have both scored 3 goals here - and this certainly looks like a venue where Rennes should be able to start on improving on their away record. Weather conditions should be ok; Rennes' rw Bourigeaud has been absolutely sensational since Oct and may have to take on even more responsibilities after Terrier's injury; but him and plethora of attacking talent that Rennes have (Guiri, Kalimuendo, Doku, midfield led by Majer and two fantastic fullbacks in Traore and Truffert/Meling) should make sure that our estimated away win of 54.5% is not too high.
Nice -3/4 @2.13
Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.07 or -1/2 @1.84
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: the hosts' first choice rb Atal is still out-injured; head coach Favre has been sacked, with his assistant and former Nice player Didier Digard taking over hc duties
Note: Ok, we wouldn't have backed Nice here if Favre was still at helm - while he is a quality coach, things were just not all right at Nice since his appointment in the summer, the performances and results were far below expectations, with culmination a few days ago in embarrassing Coupe de France elimination against low-league side Le Puy... and Nice played with very strong 11 there, almost their best possible. Former player Digard is a new coach, he was a member of a coaching staff already and knows the team inside out, but it remains to be seen how successful he will be. So basically, while it was obvious that change is needed, there are no guarantees that this will work, and for us to trust Nice immediately after a coach change is perhaps a bit of a gamble - but looking at their roster, there is no doubt that this is a team with plenty of high quality individuals, and with no doubt that Digard will have their respect, there are some elements that make us confident this will work out well for Nice in 2nd part of the season. Montpellier have shown some signs of improvement since their coach change in mid-Oct, but they still have to be considered as widely erratic side, quite dis-balanced, with their attack miles ahead of their defensive strength (and individual quality); and they also suffered a surprising Cup exit, vs 2nd league side Pau - although at least Montpellier played with a rotated lineup in that one. Ok weather conditions, we est Nice at 58% to win this, and considering their struggles this season, and quite a poor home record (2-3-3, just 6 goals scored in those 8 games), this price could perhaps improve - but ultimately, we do expect a positive reaction after a coach change from players, who have clearly underachieved as a group so far, and perhaps some extra effort to put the Cup embarrassment behind with 3 league points.

Troyes +1/4 @1.91
Min price to bet: +1/4 @1.83 or dnb @2.15
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: Experienced dm Gonalons doubt to start for Clermont (but he is in the squad for tomorrow), wng Allevinah out, rb Zeffane also still out; Troyes' first choice rb Balde unavailable due to sickness
Note: Clermont are in mid-table with respectable 10 points after 7 rounds, but they have heavily relied on heroics of their gk Diaw, who has been performing like a man possessed recently; being their clear man of the match in last 3 games (0-0 at Strasbourg, 2-0 win v Toulouse, 1-0 loss at Marseille), and impressing in 1-0 win v Nice earlier this season as well. Theit 5.8 xG is the worst in Ligue 1; same goes for 15.6 xG against (but they conceded only 10, thanks mostly to their hero between the posts), and only toothless Ajaccio have created less big chances. Troyes are no world-beaters, they have 3 points less and are certainly a relegation candidate, but they look like the better side, and we can't really make Clermont favs in this game, it's about 50-50, perhaps with 0.5-1.0% advantage to the hosts, so at current prices we make the visitors a clear bet for tomorrow, in this low-profile Ligue 1 game.

We disagree on Freib TG, Stevie   But ok, always good to have different views, cheers & GL!
Freiburg o3 @2.04
Min price to bet: o3 @1.97
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: cb/dm Itakura suspended for Gladbach, lw/fw Plea injured
Note: Ok weather and good game expected here, TG 3.30-3.35 for us. It is a fact that Gladbach played 3 low-scoring games in a row, but there was a huge element of luck in first two, 1-0 win v Hertha and 1-1 draw at Bayern, with chances wasted, posts hit and penalty missed in first one; and gk Sommer making Bundesliga high 19 saves (!) in Munchen. Even last week, 0-1 v Mainz was not a true refection of game events, Gladbach really should have scored, they wasted 3 big chances and hit the post, but early 2nd half red card to Itakura basically killed the game, with Mainz taking advantage in the end. Freiburg's last home game v Bochum didn't go as we anticipated, at least not in terms of number goals scored, as it ended 1-0 despite some crazy scenes and chances, posts hit, miraculous saves and incredibly high final xG (5.20 combined!)... hopefully higher efficiency tomorrow! Freiburg are in UEL, they beat Qarabag 2-1 on Thu and travel to Greece to meet Olympiacos next Thu, but are not expected to rotate here. Btw both meetings last season were quite bizarre and both produced 6 goals.
Union Berlin dnb @2.19
Min price to bet: dnb @2.13 or +1/4 @1.81
Model +value: no, small negative
Significant team news: cb Doekhi out for Union (he has started last 3 and played well, but came into 11 only after injury to cb Leite, who is available again); cf Siebatcheu is back in the squad; rb Schmitz and fwd Uth still out for KOln
Note: With Bayern, these are the only two unbeaten teams in Bundesliga this season, it may stay like that after this game but we make it a clear 50-50 shot and like current prices on Union Berlin as underdogs. Both are playing well and both are participating in Europe, with Union losing their home game v Union St Gilloise 0-1 in UEL, and Koln drawing 1-1 away at Nice in UECL; both games on Thu. It was not a good performance by Union at all, but perhaps it is Koln who spent more energy and had a bit more emotional game, with thousands of traveling fans supporting them in Nice - if anything, we would say that Koln are in small disadvantage here compared to Union, due to that game on Thu, considering the circumstances (trip to Nice, fans, enthusiasm for European game), and the visitors could be sharper tomorrow - they have scored 2 goals in each of last 3 Bundesliga visits here (last 3 seasons), and are unbeaten with 2-1-0 (plus they won all 3 home games for 5-1-0 overall record in last 3 seasons), hopefully a trip to Koln will be fruitful for them yet again. Model does not like this, but is not aware that Koln had some 'luck' with first half red cards to Schalke and Leipzig, and then early 2nd half red card to Stutgart, so man-advantage for them for quite some time in 3 of 5 BL games so far.

That was c/p from our site, I'll add one from Ger2 in this topic at PL as well - no separate topic for this league, and perhaps better not to open it for one game, so will just throw this here:

Darmstadt -1/4 @1.90
Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.83 or -1/2 @2.11
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: -
Note: Just 2 points between these two teams, and only 1 defeat for both - however, we strongly like Darmstadt at these prices, after what they've shown last season and also what they've been showing this season so far, they have to be rated as one of the promotion candidates. Kaiserslautern are a bigger club and they don't lack ambition, but quality at the moment is not really there, they were quite lucky to get this many points and should be expected to slow down in the near future. If you look at shot and shots on target differential after 7 games, Kaiserslautern are quite negative in both, and 3rd worst in shots diff in BL2; while Darmstadt are strongly positive and 3rd best in shots diff. Darmstadt's performance last week v Bielefeld (1-1) wasn't good, though it was still tough to concede 94th min equalizer, but other than that and 1st game of the season at Regensburg, they have pretty much impressed with their play and also got a huge 2-1 win at title-favorites HSV a few weeks ago. Kaiserslautern is not an easy place to visit, but we est Darsmtadt at 51-51.5% to get 3 points tomorrow.

We disagree on Freib TG, Stevie   But ok, always good to have different views, cheers & GL!
Freiburg o3 @2.04
Min price to bet: o3 @1.97
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: cb/dm Itakura suspended for Gladbach, lw/fw Plea injured
Note: Ok weather and good game expected here, TG 3.30-3.35 for us. It is a fact that Gladbach played 3 low-scoring games in a row, but there was a huge element of luck in first two, 1-0 win v Hertha and 1-1 draw at Bayern, with chances wasted, posts hit and penalty missed in first one; and gk Sommer making Bundesliga high 19 saves (!) in Munchen. Even last week, 0-1 v Mainz was not a true refection of game events, Gladbach really should have scored, they wasted 3 big chances and hit the post, but early 2nd half red card to Itakura basically killed the game, with Mainz taking advantage in the end. Freiburg's last home game v Bochum didn't go as we anticipated, at least not in terms of number goals scored, as it ended 1-0 despite some crazy scenes and chances, posts hit, miraculous saves and incredibly high final xG (5.20 combined!)... hopefully higher efficiency tomorrow! Freiburg are in UEL, they beat Qarabag 2-1 on Thu and travel to Greece to meet Olympiacos next Thu, but are not expected to rotate here. Btw both meetings last season were quite bizarre and both produced 6 goals.
Union Berlin dnb @2.19
Min price to bet: dnb @2.13 or +1/4 @1.81
Model +value: no, small negative
Significant team news: cb Doekhi out for Union (he has started last 3 and played well, but came into 11 only after injury to cb Leite, who is available again); cf Siebatcheu is back in the squad; rb Schmitz and fwd Uth still out for KOln
Note: With Bayern, these are the only two unbeaten teams in Bundesliga this season, it may stay like that after this game but we make it a clear 50-50 shot and like current prices on Union Berlin as underdogs. Both are playing well and both are participating in Europe, with Union losing their home game v Union St Gilloise 0-1 in UEL, and Koln drawing 1-1 away at Nice in UECL; both games on Thu. It was not a good performance by Union at all, but perhaps it is Koln who spent more energy and had a bit more emotional game, with thousands of traveling fans supporting them in Nice - if anything, we would say that Koln are in small disadvantage here compared to Union, due to that game on Thu, considering the circumstances (trip to Nice, fans, enthusiasm for European game), and the visitors could be sharper tomorrow - they have scored 2 goals in each of last 3 Bundesliga visits here (last 3 seasons), and are unbeaten with 2-1-0 (plus they won all 3 home games for 5-1-0 overall record in last 3 seasons), hopefully a trip to Koln will be fruitful for them yet again. Model does not like this, but is not aware that Koln had some 'luck' with first half red cards to Schalke and Leipzig, and then early 2nd half red card to Stutgart, so man-advantage for them for quite some time in 3 of 5 BL games so far.

That was c/p from our site, I'll add one from Ger2 in this topic at PL as well - no separate topic for this league, and perhaps better not to open it for one game, so will just throw this here:

Darmstadt -1/4 @1.90
Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.83 or -1/2 @2.11
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: -
Note: Just 2 points between these two teams, and only 1 defeat for both - however, we strongly like Darmstadt at these prices, after what they've shown last season and also what they've been showing this season so far, they have to be rated as one of the promotion candidates. Kaiserslautern are a bigger club and they don't lack ambition, but quality at the moment is not really there, they were quite lucky to get this many points and should be expected to slow down in the near future. If you look at shot and shots on target differential after 7 games, Kaiserslautern are quite negative in both, and 3rd worst in shots diff in BL2; while Darmstadt are strongly positive and 3rd best in shots diff. Darmstadt's performance last week v Bielefeld (1-1) wasn't good, though it was still tough to concede 94th min equalizer, but other than that and 1st game of the season at Regensburg, they have pretty much impressed with their play and also got a huge 2-1 win at title-favorites HSV a few weeks ago. Kaiserslautern is not an easy place to visit, but we est Darsmtadt at 51-51.5% to get 3 points tomorrow.

Nantes +1.75 @1.97
Min price to bet: +1.75 @1.90 or +1.5 @2.15
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: (fb Merlin, cf Simon and cm Sissoko still out for Nantes, but all players that were available vs Strasbourg are available tomorrow as well - PSG expected to rotate)
Note: PSG have not rotated so far, playing their best poss 11 (or close to it; with top 3 superstars always included) in every game, but this game comes 3 days after midweek win in Toulouse and, more importantly, just 3 days before their big opening UCL group game v Juve... and UCL is PSG's key competition this season, yet again, and the big stage they will want to shine on. Nantes are a tricky opponent in any case, as they are a well drilled side; and while they also have a European game in midweek, in EL group stage, it's fair to assume they won't be resting players in home game vs the reigning champions, it's always a special occasion when PSG are in town, for any team in Ligue 1 really. Min prices to bet would depend on confirmed team-news and lineups here, assumption is that PSG will rotate, and we put 7-8 pts below current mkt avgs as official minimums, but in case the rotation is heavier, even lower prices would be ok, say +1.75 @1.80ish or +1.5 @2.02ish would do it.

Lyon o3.25 @1.93
Min price to bet: o3.25 @1.87 or o3.5 @2.10
Model +value: yes, small
Significant team news: - 
Note: Fine 3-1-0 start for Lyon, but they have conceded in each of those 4 games, despite playing 4 teams that are expected to finish in bottom 10, and actually, 4 relegation candidates. Angers games have been full of goals, cards and entertainment, 4 of their 5 league games have gone over 3.5 line with both teams scoring, they have conceded at least 2 goals in last 4, and only in the opening game of the season played a 0-0 draw v Nantes, but that one was also full of excitement and chances, it may have ended with 0-0 but final xG were 1.60-1.65, there were 30 shots in total, 20 from inside the box, 10 on target, with two goalkeepers dominating, especially Lafont in Nantes goal who won man of the math award. Lyon are heavy favs here, we agree it's 75%+ for them but wouldn't really count on them keeping a clean sheet, hcap for hosts looks good but we would need slightly better price, while overs off TG 3.70ish is a go, as we think it should be 3.5 line around @2.00 for overs.

Genk -1 @1.86
Min price to bet: -1.25 @2.04 or -1 @1.75
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: - (same squad for Genk as in last few games)
Note: No reason to stop trusting Genk as long as the market is above our fair prices, they were impressive again last week, won only with 2-1 but it should've been by 3 goals really, they allowed almost nothing to Cercle, conceded out of the blue right at the start of the 2nd half, from what was only Cercle's 2nd shot from inside the box (they finished with 3; Genk had 14) and missed quite a few chances, it was especially amazing they failed to score from set pieces, especially corner kicks, from which they looked very very dangerous indeed, with 3-4 sitters missed. Seraing got a big 3-1 away win at fellow relegation candidates Eupen last week, their first points of the season, and while that will boost their confidence, the problem is that Genk are on another level at the moment, more than likely to bring their hosts down again. About 70.5-71% for an away win for us, Seraing have a narrow ugly pitch that is certainly not something better teams like too much; but that area is their only (small) advantage here. There is -1.25 @2.10 available at the moment, and while this is the hcap we actually prefer to -1 in this case, the problem is that vast majority of the mkt is on -1, so we will stick to lower and uglier price here.
St Truiden -1/4 @2.01
Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.90 or -1/2 @2.20
Model +value: yes, small
Significant team news: yes, quite a few problems for Mechelen, as they are without first choice gk Coucke, star lw Storm, cb/cm Lavalee, lb Bolingoli; rw Shved a doubt and their important duo from last season, am Mrabti and lb Bijker are both still out as well... first choice cf Hayashi is doubtful for the hosts (should be out)
Note: We can say that Mechelen are severely weakened here, their team-news are truly poor, but they were in even worse situation last week and still somehow managed to beat Westerlo 5-4 (and they were 2-4 down with 15 mins to go), in a weird game that featured some terrible defending and goalkeeping. However, it's difficult to ignore these problems at Mechelen, let's not forget they also lost last season top scorer cf Cuypers to Gent this summer, and at this stage they don't look like the side who should challenge for UECL playofs. St Truiden got their first win of the season last week (1-0 at Oostende), but they lost only to Anderlecht this season, despite playing 2 other strong teams in Gent and Union SG; and actually, if we look back at last season as well, loss against Anderlecht was the only defeat St Truiden have suffered in last 14 league games. It's not ideal that cf Hayashi is (likely) out, but his other countrymen are all available, with Japanese legends Kagawa and Okazaki set to lead the line, and rwb Hashioka and gk Schmidt to start as well, as usual. We like the hosts at these prices, est hw at 48.5-49% after some adjustment for team news.

Genk -1 @1.86
Min price to bet: -1.25 @2.04 or -1 @1.75
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: - (same squad for Genk as in last few games)
Note: No reason to stop trusting Genk as long as the market is above our fair prices, they were impressive again last week, won only with 2-1 but it should've been by 3 goals really, they allowed almost nothing to Cercle, conceded out of the blue right at the start of the 2nd half, from what was only Cercle's 2nd shot from inside the box (they finished with 3; Genk had 14) and missed quite a few chances, it was especially amazing they failed to score from set pieces, especially corner kicks, from which they looked very very dangerous indeed, with 3-4 sitters missed. Seraing got a big 3-1 away win at fellow relegation candidates Eupen last week, their first points of the season, and while that will boost their confidence, the problem is that Genk are on another level at the moment, more than likely to bring their hosts down again. About 70.5-71% for an away win for us, Seraing have a narrow ugly pitch that is certainly not something better teams like too much; but that area is their only (small) advantage here. There is -1.25 @2.10 available at the moment, and while this is the hcap we actually prefer to -1 in this case, the problem is that vast majority of the mkt is on -1, so we will stick to lower and uglier price here.
St Truiden -1/4 @2.01
Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.90 or -1/2 @2.20
Model +value: yes, small
Significant team news: yes, quite a few problems for Mechelen, as they are without first choice gk Coucke, star lw Storm, cb/cm Lavalee, lb Bolingoli; rw Shved a doubt and their important duo from last season, am Mrabti and lb Bijker are both still out as well... first choice cf Hayashi is doubtful for the hosts (should be out)
Note: We can say that Mechelen are severely weakened here, their team-news are truly poor, but they were in even worse situation last week and still somehow managed to beat Westerlo 5-4 (and they were 2-4 down with 15 mins to go), in a weird game that featured some terrible defending and goalkeeping. However, it's difficult to ignore these problems at Mechelen, let's not forget they also lost last season top scorer cf Cuypers to Gent this summer, and at this stage they don't look like the side who should challenge for UECL playofs. St Truiden got their first win of the season last week (1-0 at Oostende), but they lost only to Anderlecht this season, despite playing 2 other strong teams in Gent and Union SG; and actually, if we look back at last season as well, loss against Anderlecht was the only defeat St Truiden have suffered in last 14 league games. It's not ideal that cf Hayashi is (likely) out, but his other countrymen are all available, with Japanese legends Kagawa and Okazaki set to lead the line, and rwb Hashioka and gk Schmidt to start as well, as usual. We like the hosts at these prices, est hw at 48.5-49% after some adjustment for team news.

c/p from our site, price on Benfica overs has moved down in meantime but it may improve before kick off, so we leave notes for that one here as well:
.............................................
Benfica o3 @2.09
Min price to bet: o3 @2.02 or o2.75 @1.80
Model +value:
Significant team news: key cm Evander inj for Midtjylland
Note: Benfica have lost a couple of attackers this summer, including star striker Nunez who was sold to Liverpool, but they brought in some young talents, have a new president in club legend (and Portugal legend) Rui Costa, and a new coach in Roger Schmidt, who joins after his contract with PSV expired a couple of months ago. Excellent coach with good, attacking football philosophy, his 2 year spell at PSV was a clear success despite no league titles won; as such a dominant Ajax side was still made to sweat for Eredivise last season, and also, PSV won the Cup against them and beat them before that in Super Cup as well. No doubt that Benfica will play much more attractive this season, they will play at a higher tempo and with lots of high press when not in possession; their pre-season friendlies were nothing short of spectacular, with 5 straight wins against decent sides, 2+ scored in all and at least 3 goals scored in last 4 (Newcastle, Fulham, Girona and Nice). Both teams have scored in each of Midtjylland's 5 official games this season (3 Den SL, 2 UCL) and 3 pre-season friendlies, and they got their first win last Fri at Odense, with emphatic 5-1 score, in first game after dismissal of head coach Henriksen - who was sacked at the airport after FCM arrived from 2nd leg of UCL qual prev round, which they won only after penalties, against Cypriot side AEK Larnaca. It was no wins in first 2 league rounds and no wins against limited Cypriots either, with penalty shootout needed to progress, along with missed opportunities last season, in which they failed to capitalize on numerous problems that main rivals FCK had, and finished as runners-up, though at least won the Danish Cup (on penalties against Odense). So two teams with new coaches (FCM with assistant coach Henrik Jensen as interim head coach at the moment), but we know exactly what to expect from sides coached by Roger Schmidt - PSV last season, or Salzburg, Leverk, Paderborn before that, even in China with Beijing Gouan he played a very attractive footie and got himself something of a cult-status among fans... after he was sacked, there were some incredible emotional scenes on the airport during his departure, with fans gathering in thousands to say good-bye to their beloved coach. Anyway, Benfica are ofc deserved strong favs in this tie, but FCM are not only a good side, but also have advantage of already playing 5 official games this season; while Benfica kept changing entire 11 at halftime of almost all their pre-season friendlies and actually, we have a pref on FCM hcap at current price (that was even better yesterday); but will just stick to TG bet, expecting a watchable game despite it's huge importance, est TG at 3.25-3.30. It will be hot in Lisbon tomorrow, but should be ok during the match with around 25c expected. No surprise if this price improves, we do like it but it's still a very important game and only the first leg.
Dinamo Zagreb and Viktoria Plzen dnb hcaps both looked as picks yesterday, unfortunately the prices have moved quite a bit in meantime, and both are out of range at the moment... perhaps if mkt moves in other direction tomorrow, there is always a chance. Also, ugly counter-intuitive pick on Union SG against Rangers is also poss, the Belgian surprise package is weaker this season after losing 3 important players and coach Mazzu, and also, they can't play UCL games at their stadium, so no 'true' home advantage either (game will be played in Leuven), but Rangers have over-performed heavily in UEL last season and they are way overrated in general (in our eyes), so if market does go for them here, USG as home dogs are likely to be our choice tomorrow (unders also look quite ok, line is 2.5 with price 190ish; whereas it does feel as if line 2.25 with prices around 195 for both o-u is more appropriate here). So, possible update tomorrow, deadline 17h - unfortunately, limits are not better than in previous round; so overnight picks for UEL and UECL on Wed and Thu are less likely, it will probably be matchday picks/notes for both... for UCL though, we are still likely to have something for Wed published tomorrow evening. Update 14.40h:
Dinamo Zagreb dnb @1.88
Min price to bet: dnb @1.83 or -1/4 @2.25
Model +value: -
Significant team news: Dinamo's first choice cb Sutalo is out inj, so is backup cb Theophile-Catherine; while cf Petkovic is a slight doubt
Note: Two Eastern European powerhouses, with Dinamo Zagreb and Ludogorets dominating their domestic leagues in last decade and also achieving some eye catching result in european cups. Very high ambitions this season as well, both are aiming for UCL group stage, but Croatians have the advantage in terms of quality and should really make it count. Bulgarian side has lost the step in last couple of years, their new signings have failed to replace players who have departed and while they didn't have the problems to dominate very weak Bulgarian league last season, they looked out of depth in EL group stage with Midtjylland, Braga and Red Star, scoring just 3 goals and winning just 2 points in 6 games. Largely the same squad as last season, no new important signings and actually a couple of regulars have left. They eased past Sutjeska in the preliminary round, but didn't impress vs poor Shamrock in previous round and almost got into trouble in the return leg; however Dinamo Zagreb were also far from impressive vs Shkupi and barely progressed, with form clearly far from optimal level at this stage. Croatians have lost a number of key players over the last couple of years, but they have always managed to sign good/proven players and produce new domestic stars, and judging from their transfer activity this summer it will be the same this time around. They are a bit shorthanded on cb position here and Sutalo's absence is not ideal, but cbs Peric and Lauritsen are both fit and ready and they have played many games together; and also, while cf Petkovic is a slight doubt after he got a knock in return leg against Shkupi last week, he is with the team and expected to take part in the game - and even if he doesn't start it wouldn't be a major loss, as both Orsic and new arrival Drmic are available and in good scoring form already. This is almost the same, albeit stronger team from one that impressed in EL group with West Ham, Rapid Vienna and Genk last season; and then troubled Sevilla in the knockout phase; and we make them 41-41.5% favs in this first leg in Razgrad.
So, the price on Croatians has bounced back allowing for a pick on them, however that will be all from today's update as Union SG price is lower than yday and expected move on Rangers never happened (TG price did move quite a bit, in expected direction); and Plzen price kept going down, so much that we now actually pref Sheriff hcap in that game (+1/4 190ish)! Nothing else today, possibly evening notes/picks for Wed action later, if not - we will have something tomorrow for sure.

Fenerbahce o3 @2.02
Min price to bet: o3 @1.95
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: important am/rw Kahveci suspended for Fener; first choice cbs Nukan and Angel still unavailable for Goztepe; first choice gk Egribayat a doubt (he has missed last 2)
Note: Fener are chasing Champs League spot and finally overtook Konya in 2nd place after last round results. Superb form, 5-1-0 in last 6, at least 2 goals scored in each of 5 wins, the only draw was 1-1 with runaway leaders Trabzon. Goztepe are 12 pts deep in the red zone, their survival chances are negligible and they have the worst form in the league, with 9 straight defeats, in all of which they have conceded at least 2 goals. Fener hcap is probably also ok, but we prefer the goals in this one, Goztepe are not that bad offensively, 8th in Superlig in big chances created, the type of this game also suits goals perfectly, TG 3.35+ for us. Ok weather in Istanbul.

This is Ligue 2 fixture, but as there is not much action on forum perhaps better not to open separate thread for one game but rather post the pick here in Fra Ligue 1 topic.
Guingamp o2.25 @1.98
Min price to bet: o2.25 @1.90 or o2.5 @2.19
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: nothing new at Guingamp, first team regular cb/dm Roux still unavailable; some new suspensions at Pau though, key cb/dm Kouassi, cm Sylvestre and backup/rotation fwd Naidji are all unavailable; also still out is first choice gk Olliero
Note: Fine weather and good game expected in Guingamp. The hosts are safe, far away from the promotion playoffs though, so they can play with even more freedom, and perhaps try to end the season in 6th place, it's only 2 pts away with 5 rounds to go. They are in good scoring form, no clean sheets for opponents in their last 6, and at least 2 goals scored in each of the last 4; but on the other hand just 1 clean sheet for them in last 7... and it should be 1 in last 8 after tomorrow's game as Pau have scored in each of their last 4, despite the fact all teams they faced are in top 6 and Ajaccio and Paris have probably two best defenses in the league (well, Ajaccio's 16 conceded in 33 games is truly amazing). With 42 pts Pau are actually not mathematically safe yet, though should survive even if they win no more points until the end of season. This is a side that probably should've been better placed by now, they certainly should've scored more goals, in fact they are 4th in the league in big chances created. Kouassi's absence is important, he is their key defender, he has missed 3 league games this season and 4 last season, they have conceded in each of those 7, solid total of 15 goals. Both to score, Guingamp likely at least 2, prices above 1.90 for o2.25 line def look ok.

Date
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
13/03/2021
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
43.3%
25.4%
31.3%
22.9%
2.64
2.65
5.85
5.68
11.53
13/03/2021
Benevento
Fiorentina
27.2%
28.8%
44.0%
25.0%
2.12
2.31
3.85
6.09
9.94
13/03/2021
Genoa
Udinese
27.7%
31.7%
40.6%
25.0%
1.84
2.13
3.63
4.81
8.45
14/03/2021
Bologna
Sampdoria
36.8%
24.7%
38.5%
20.9%
2.82
2.77
5.66
6.10
11.76
14/03/2021
Torino
Internazionale
9.2%
15.4%
75.4%
23.4%
3.14
2.98
3.31
6.18
9.49
14/03/2021
Parma
Roma
12.9%
17.6%
69.5%
23.9%
3.16
2.99
2.99
5.70
8.68
14/03/2021
Cagliari
Juventus
9.8%
17.6%
72.6%
25.4%
2.79
2.75
4.73
7.33
12.06
14/03/2021
Milan
Napoli
37.0%
23.6%
39.4%
20.6%
3.03
2.91
4.68
6.00
10.68
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
 
Sassuolo dnb @1.88 – hosts had superb last season and didn’t start this one badly either, but their form deteriorated in recent months, performances were really below par and injury situation didn’t help. It is better now, and we can expect this offensive side to pick up more points in remaining games, perhaps remind us what they looked like for most of last season. Verona are well organized side, always difficult to play against, but at current prices I’m happy to go against them. In case of low scoring first half, over1.25 at 1.95ish mark could be worth a shot – current db price for overs is not tempting, and huge market move b4 kick off is unlikely; but both these teams are basically safe from relegation (even though in theory they should still be careful) and we can expect gpg in their games to go up, this especially goes for Sassuolo (who on first sight have ‘high’ 3.2 gpg average this season, but just 14 of 25 games went over 2.5 line).
Napoli dnb @2.02 in big evening game tomorrow, very important for both sides, who seem to be getting back on track  after recent slumps. Still, for Milan this game is sandwiched between big euro games vs ManU, it’s definitely distraction especially now after excellent result and overall display in first leg. Much more was expected from Napoli this season, they should’ve been fighting for title, but quite a few things went wrong, not only problems with injuries or some questionable coaching decisions, there was clearly some bad luck factor present as well – before this game Napoli are leading the league in shots on target differential, and are second in total shots differential, with only Atalanta better. They will be fresher of the two here, motivation is not in doubt, quality difference with full squads maybe on Milan’s side, but just maybe – and in current circumstances with Milan’s heavy schedule and more problems on injury front, it’s actually on Napoli’s side.
Probaby some more comments later or tomorrow, cheers

Date
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
13/03/2021
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
43.3%
25.4%
31.3%
22.9%
2.64
2.65
5.85
5.68
11.53
13/03/2021
Benevento
Fiorentina
27.2%
28.8%
44.0%
25.0%
2.12
2.31
3.85
6.09
9.94
13/03/2021
Genoa
Udinese
27.7%
31.7%
40.6%
25.0%
1.84
2.13
3.63
4.81
8.45
14/03/2021
Bologna
Sampdoria
36.8%
24.7%
38.5%
20.9%
2.82
2.77
5.66
6.10
11.76
14/03/2021
Torino
Internazionale
9.2%
15.4%
75.4%
23.4%
3.14
2.98
3.31
6.18
9.49
14/03/2021
Parma
Roma
12.9%
17.6%
69.5%
23.9%
3.16
2.99
2.99
5.70
8.68
14/03/2021
Cagliari
Juventus
9.8%
17.6%
72.6%
25.4%
2.79
2.75
4.73
7.33
12.06
14/03/2021
Milan
Napoli
37.0%
23.6%
39.4%
20.6%
3.03
2.91
4.68
6.00
10.68
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
 
Sassuolo dnb @1.88 – hosts had superb last season and didn’t start this one badly either, but their form deteriorated in recent months, performances were really below par and injury situation didn’t help. It is better now, and we can expect this offensive side to pick up more points in remaining games, perhaps remind us what they looked like for most of last season. Verona are well organized side, always difficult to play against, but at current prices I’m happy to go against them. In case of low scoring first half, over1.25 at 1.95ish mark could be worth a shot – current db price for overs is not tempting, and huge market move b4 kick off is unlikely; but both these teams are basically safe from relegation (even though in theory they should still be careful) and we can expect gpg in their games to go up, this especially goes for Sassuolo (who on first sight have ‘high’ 3.2 gpg average this season, but just 14 of 25 games went over 2.5 line).
Napoli dnb @2.02 in big evening game tomorrow, very important for both sides, who seem to be getting back on track  after recent slumps. Still, for Milan this game is sandwiched between big euro games vs ManU, it’s definitely distraction especially now after excellent result and overall display in first leg. Much more was expected from Napoli this season, they should’ve been fighting for title, but quite a few things went wrong, not only problems with injuries or some questionable coaching decisions, there was clearly some bad luck factor present as well – before this game Napoli are leading the league in shots on target differential, and are second in total shots differential, with only Atalanta better. They will be fresher of the two here, motivation is not in doubt, quality difference with full squads maybe on Milan’s side, but just maybe – and in current circumstances with Milan’s heavy schedule and more problems on injury front, it’s actually on Napoli’s side.
Probaby some more comments later or tomorrow, cheers

Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Brest
Dijon
55.9%
24.2%
19.9%
26.1%
2.54
2.55
5.76
4.03
9.78
Olympique Lyonnais
Rennes
57.9%
23.2%
18.9%
25.7%
2.71
2.67
4.47
4.51
8.98
Metz
Angers SCO
43.0%
29.7%
27.4%
25.2%
2.07
2.25
5.31
5.43
10.74
Nice
Nimes
51.5%
24.1%
24.5%
24.5%
2.77
2.70
4.78
4.70
9.48
Saint-Etienne
Lens
35.8%
27.9%
36.3%
21.7%
2.36
2.44
4.81
4.80
9.61
Bordeaux
PSG
12.2%
19.0%
68.8%
25.3%
2.84
2.75
4.11
6.03
10.14
Lille
Olympique Marseille
53.1%
28.3%
18.6%
28.2%
2.00
2.20
4.48
3.40
7.89
Montpellier
Lorient
51.8%
22.1%
26.1%
22.9%
3.23
3.00
5.27
4.65
9.92
Nantes
Reims
34.4%
32.6%
33.0%
23.0%
1.82
2.09
4.18
3.29
7.48
Strasbourg
Monaco
26.4%
23.5%
50.1%
23.6%
2.95
2.82
3.08
5.18
8.26
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Not a lot re hcaps, but a few totals look interesting. First, an ugly looking under 3 @1.86 in Lyon, this is above 5% value even if we go with 2.90 TG number. Perhaps 2.85 as some sort of max to bet off, so down to under 3 @1.77 or under 2.75 @2.05 still fine for cheeky shot. There is preference for Rennes on hcap, which seems even uglier to unders, with visitors in v bad form, no wins in last 7 and 4 straight losses (1 in Cup), so perhaps coaching change that followed was not a big surprise – but it is doubtful how much it will help them long term, as coach Julien Stephan left after 2 and a half years having left a strong mark here with Rennes playing CL and LE as well as winning Coupe de France with him on helm. Lyon have Paqueta suspended following his red card at Marseille, and after a strong run they dropped points in 2 of their last 3 (almost in all 3 actually, as halftime 3-0 lead at Brest almost got to 3-3 in the end), title race in France really heated up with 4 clubs in it and PSG not even close to any sort of domination they had in previous years. Various problems and injuries at PSG played their part here, but it is fair to say that Lyon have been probably the best French side so far. If you want a bizarre h2h info, you should look no further than this fixture: despite consistently being one of the top French teams in last couple of decades, Lyon always had problems with Rennes at home – incredibly, they only won 3 out of last 15 home league games v Rennes, losing last 3 (last 4 if we also include a semifinal cup game from 2 seasons ago, with Rennes winning competition in the end). Strasbourg-Monaco over 2.5 @1.95 is also worth a punt, I was hoping for evens here and it could get there eventually (price improved in last several hours), but this is already enough. Monaco are the form team in France and somewhat surprising title hopefuls after going 10-2-0 in their last 12 league games, they are certainly happy with 2 consecutive clean sheets as well, but this is side whose 21 of 27 league games this season finished over 2.5 line. Strasbourg should’ve conceded more goals at Lille at the weekend, as hosts were wasteful from some promising position, missing the target most of the time, with gk Kawashima also playing his part – however, Strasbourg could have scored more as well, actually could have won it in dying minutes. They are now unbeaten in 3, like to play more open than average French side and have a good oppo in Monaco here, with recent h2h also favoring goals, last 7 between the two all ended over 2.5 line (this is from last 3 seasons plus reverse fixture this season, as next h2h piece of info would take us to year 2008). Next one is Montpellier-Lorient over 2.5 @1.93 – crystal clear model bet, though it has to be said that Montpellier’s key forward Delort is still out. This bet currently works off TG 2.90 as well, so with no further disastrous team-news or bad weather conditions, I’m happy to risk it (would set o2.5 @1.87 and o2.75 @2.08 as some min prices to bet). Nothing on hcap, but was hoping for better price on hosts tbh, perhaps if tomorrow market goes for Lorient and price on Montpellier improves, some rough target would be -1/2 @2.12. Just looking now at corners market for fun, maybe under 9 corners @1.95 in Nantes is worth some beer money. Originaly, hcaps on Nimes and Metz seemed interesting, but quite a bit of chaos with team-news (and no important confirmations yet) means I’ll pass for now. No rain or stronger winds for these games tomorrow, weather should be fine, clear. Cheers

Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Brest
Dijon
55.9%
24.2%
19.9%
26.1%
2.54
2.55
5.76
4.03
9.78
Olympique Lyonnais
Rennes
57.9%
23.2%
18.9%
25.7%
2.71
2.67
4.47
4.51
8.98
Metz
Angers SCO
43.0%
29.7%
27.4%
25.2%
2.07
2.25
5.31
5.43
10.74
Nice
Nimes
51.5%
24.1%
24.5%
24.5%
2.77
2.70
4.78
4.70
9.48
Saint-Etienne
Lens
35.8%
27.9%
36.3%
21.7%
2.36
2.44
4.81
4.80
9.61
Bordeaux
PSG
12.2%
19.0%
68.8%
25.3%
2.84
2.75
4.11
6.03
10.14
Lille
Olympique Marseille
53.1%
28.3%
18.6%
28.2%
2.00
2.20
4.48
3.40
7.89
Montpellier
Lorient
51.8%
22.1%
26.1%
22.9%
3.23
3.00
5.27
4.65
9.92
Nantes
Reims
34.4%
32.6%
33.0%
23.0%
1.82
2.09
4.18
3.29
7.48
Strasbourg
Monaco
26.4%
23.5%
50.1%
23.6%
2.95
2.82
3.08
5.18
8.26
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Not a lot re hcaps, but a few totals look interesting. First, an ugly looking under 3 @1.86 in Lyon, this is above 5% value even if we go with 2.90 TG number. Perhaps 2.85 as some sort of max to bet off, so down to under 3 @1.77 or under 2.75 @2.05 still fine for cheeky shot. There is preference for Rennes on hcap, which seems even uglier to unders, with visitors in v bad form, no wins in last 7 and 4 straight losses (1 in Cup), so perhaps coaching change that followed was not a big surprise – but it is doubtful how much it will help them long term, as coach Julien Stephan left after 2 and a half years having left a strong mark here with Rennes playing CL and LE as well as winning Coupe de France with him on helm. Lyon have Paqueta suspended following his red card at Marseille, and after a strong run they dropped points in 2 of their last 3 (almost in all 3 actually, as halftime 3-0 lead at Brest almost got to 3-3 in the end), title race in France really heated up with 4 clubs in it and PSG not even close to any sort of domination they had in previous years. Various problems and injuries at PSG played their part here, but it is fair to say that Lyon have been probably the best French side so far. If you want a bizarre h2h info, you should look no further than this fixture: despite consistently being one of the top French teams in last couple of decades, Lyon always had problems with Rennes at home – incredibly, they only won 3 out of last 15 home league games v Rennes, losing last 3 (last 4 if we also include a semifinal cup game from 2 seasons ago, with Rennes winning competition in the end). Strasbourg-Monaco over 2.5 @1.95 is also worth a punt, I was hoping for evens here and it could get there eventually (price improved in last several hours), but this is already enough. Monaco are the form team in France and somewhat surprising title hopefuls after going 10-2-0 in their last 12 league games, they are certainly happy with 2 consecutive clean sheets as well, but this is side whose 21 of 27 league games this season finished over 2.5 line. Strasbourg should’ve conceded more goals at Lille at the weekend, as hosts were wasteful from some promising position, missing the target most of the time, with gk Kawashima also playing his part – however, Strasbourg could have scored more as well, actually could have won it in dying minutes. They are now unbeaten in 3, like to play more open than average French side and have a good oppo in Monaco here, with recent h2h also favoring goals, last 7 between the two all ended over 2.5 line (this is from last 3 seasons plus reverse fixture this season, as next h2h piece of info would take us to year 2008). Next one is Montpellier-Lorient over 2.5 @1.93 – crystal clear model bet, though it has to be said that Montpellier’s key forward Delort is still out. This bet currently works off TG 2.90 as well, so with no further disastrous team-news or bad weather conditions, I’m happy to risk it (would set o2.5 @1.87 and o2.75 @2.08 as some min prices to bet). Nothing on hcap, but was hoping for better price on hosts tbh, perhaps if tomorrow market goes for Lorient and price on Montpellier improves, some rough target would be -1/2 @2.12. Just looking now at corners market for fun, maybe under 9 corners @1.95 in Nantes is worth some beer money. Originaly, hcaps on Nimes and Metz seemed interesting, but quite a bit of chaos with team-news (and no important confirmations yet) means I’ll pass for now. No rain or stronger winds for these games tomorrow, weather should be fine, clear. Cheers

Hi,  there is no new topic on PL forum for this round (not sure if we are allowed to open these, as they contain some standard odds-rtgs data), so with previous post in this topic previewing game for tomorrow, I will also leave my Italy Serie B comments for tomorrow here, please if moderator can later put the post to appropriate midweek thread (if someone opens it)...
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Frosinone
Monza
20.4%
35.9%
43.7%
27.2%
1.90
2.08
4.67
5.36
10.03
Cittadella
Pescara
57.6%
29.1%
13.3%
26.7%
2.49
2.47
6.44
3.60
10.04
Ascoli
Pisa
31.1%
32.2%
36.7%
22.6%
2.53
2.49
4.99
4.29
9.28
Lecce
Virtus Entella
59.7%
26.2%
14.1%
24.4%
3.05
2.83
5.28
3.75
9.03
Vicenza Virtus
Cremonese
34.9%
33.8%
31.3%
22.1%
2.31
2.35
4.62
4.55
9.16
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Monza -1/4 @2.11 is a bet, although tbh I was hoping for a bit better price, and it may improve later on, but this is already enough to recommend it. Monza are a serious promotion contender this season, no real weak spots in this side, though their form is not so good, with just 3 wins in last 9 games, and not undeservedly so, as performances dropped a bit recently as well, highlighted with saturday's 0-0 at home v fellow promotion hopefuls Cittadella, in a game where Monza were outplayed in general and probably should be happy with a point in the end. Two of their biggest stars Boateng and Balotelli are out for this one, but while the former is not irrelevant, Mario's absence should make no difference at all. Youngster Pirola who impressed in last two games will also sit this one out, but except for full 90 mins of playtime in those last 2 games he has just 35 more minutes this season. After 25 games, Monza's +2.20 shtgt differential is the best in the league, while their +4.05 total shots diff is 4th best, there is really little doubt this side is placed in current standings where they should be - and pretty much same can be said for mid-placed Frosinone, who should not flirt with relegation but also should have nothing to do with promotion race... though with playoff system in place, you never know. If Monza's form has dropped a bit in last several weeks, Frosinone's has pretty much plummeted, with just 1 single win in last 13 games, and it was a lucky one, 3-2 away win against the run of play at bottom-placed Entella. Hosts have more quality on paper than what they are showing on field, there are some high profile names for Serie B here, with several of them playing for Frosi in Serie A two seasons ago; and vast majority from last season's playoff run are also here... but this is simply not a good enough 'team', it's the second season in a row they seem to be missing something, they were lucky to get into playoffs last season in first place, then proceeded to almost win it, as they had Spezia on the ropes in that last game, but it wasn't to be. While I was hoping for dnb 180 or -1/4 220+, current price is still high enough as some min to bet would be in range of 203 -1/4.
Lecce-Entella over 2.5 @1.93 is also a bet, though admittedly this line feels too high for Serie B; but first, it is chaotic Lecce who are involved, this is the team whose games (deservedly) had default TG line set to 3.0 this season as well; and on the other side it is Entella, who are leaking goals but also playing with more ambition in recent weeks, their current table position won't be helped with many draws, though they would certainly be happy with one tomorrow. Expected this to be set at 2.75 with overs priced around evens, so really can't resist this, it's basically 17-18 pts from current market price (o2.5 @1.93 / o2.75 @2.19). Lecce won reverse fixture 5-1, can't expect anything similar this time around, but both teams to score and then some more is realistic, keeping clean sheets is not their strength, Entella haven't done so in last 8, crazy Lecce in last 7 (or in 21 of last 23 if you like that more).
While model likes Pisa for tomorrow, this is the game I would disagree with numbers, as Ascoli are one of the most improved sides in last month, their results improved but their performances merited even more, in fact in last 5 games their +6 shots differential and +3.2 shtgt diff are respectively 2nd best and best in the league, this was enough for just 1-2-2 record, and this run included games against Lecce, Salernitana, Pordenone and Frosinone, who are all either in playoff position or close, with only Reggiana in lower part of table (game that Ascoli lost 0-1, but had man disadvantage for 50+ mins and outshot hosts 20-9, on tgt 9-2); prior to this run they beat Brescia 2-1 at home winning shot attempts 25-6 (6-2 on tgt) and had a goalless draw in even game v very good Chievo side. Pisa are a tricky oppo to play against, and current price on Ascoli (208 -1/4) doesn't attract me enough, but in case of some huge move on visitors tomorrow, dnb 187ish on hosts would do it for anti-model bet. All of Pisa's 12 away games had 2 goals or more in it, model has this one at 2.50ish for TG, in case of price improvement overs could be interesting for bet, my current target is over 2.25 @2.03 (in case of 0-0 or 1 goal first half, rough halftime targets would be over 1 @1.75 or over 1.25 @2.25).
For all 3 mentioned games weather should be fine tomorrow, 10-13^c during games, clear or v little precip, no problems.

Date
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
28/02/2021
Monaco
Brest
59.4%
19.6%
21.0%
22.6%
3.56
3.22
6.10
3.33
9.43
28/02/2021
Angers SCO
Lens
35.8%
29.3%
34.9%
22.3%
2.17
2.32
5.03
4.94
9.97
28/02/2021
Lorient
Saint-Etienne
33.1%
26.4%
40.5%
22.6%
2.57
2.57
4.10
5.10
9.20
28/02/2021
Nimes
Nantes
33.9%
27.2%
38.9%
22.5%
2.46
2.50
4.24
4.81
9.06
28/02/2021
Reims
Montpellier
36.5%
26.4%
37.1%
21.4%
2.60
2.59
4.29
4.31
8.60
28/02/2021
Lille
Strasbourg
62.5%
23.4%
14.1%
27.8%
2.33
2.42
4.77
3.07
7.83
28/02/2021
Olympique Marseille
Olympique Lyonnais
24.1%
24.4%
51.6%
24.7%
2.70
2.66
4.60
5.43
10.02
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  robo and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Lille -3/4 @2.04 looks like a bet  / heavier schedule due to Europa League, being knocked out won't help morale but they are doing v well in the league, topping the table and playing consistently well – it is still more likely we see Lyon or PSG getting the title in the end, but i’ts just 12 rounds to go and Lille have their chance here. Strasbourg are hit&miss this season, shouldn’t be involved in relegation battle but it could get ugly in the end unless they achieve some consistency in next few weeks. One good thing about Strasbourg is that they do like to play football – you will rarely see ultra-defensive approach from this side, and the way they usually play should suit Lille, who are fine in possession but also lethal in transition. Weather should be fine, sunny and around 10 degrees, and game should be fine as well, I would go with TG 2.45 here so suggest also over 2 @1.83 and/or over 2.25 @2.16 currently available. Lille have ‘mean’ defence esp at home, just 7 conceded in 13 games, but if Strasbourg show their happy side, there could be goals on both ends here, hopefully multiple in Stras net ofc.
Elsewhere, if price on Montpellier improves to dnb @2.05 that would also be of interest, as well as over 2.25 @1.97 in same game. Marseille have way too many problems and are not playing well at all (basically all season long... zero shtg diff and -2.24 shots differential after 2/3 of the season doesn't suggest a top half team), so no interest from us there even though price looks high on first sight;  Monaco-Brest game looks like goals bonanza, but personally would need over 3 @1.91 or over 3.25 @2.20 to have a punt... maybe if its 0-0 or 1 goal at halftime, to keep an eye for over 1.5 @1.95ish ht bet. 
Cheers

Hi,  there is no new topic on PL forum for this round (not sure if we are allowed to open these, as they contain some standard odds-rtgs data), so with previous post in this topic previewing game for tomorrow, I will also leave my Italy Serie B comments for tomorrow here, please if moderator can later put the post to appropriate midweek thread (if someone opens it)...
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Frosinone
Monza
20.4%
35.9%
43.7%
27.2%
1.90
2.08
4.67
5.36
10.03
Cittadella
Pescara
57.6%
29.1%
13.3%
26.7%
2.49
2.47
6.44
3.60
10.04
Ascoli
Pisa
31.1%
32.2%
36.7%
22.6%
2.53
2.49
4.99
4.29
9.28
Lecce
Virtus Entella
59.7%
26.2%
14.1%
24.4%
3.05
2.83
5.28
3.75
9.03
Vicenza Virtus
Cremonese
34.9%
33.8%
31.3%
22.1%
2.31
2.35
4.62
4.55
9.16
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Monza -1/4 @2.11 is a bet, although tbh I was hoping for a bit better price, and it may improve later on, but this is already enough to recommend it. Monza are a serious promotion contender this season, no real weak spots in this side, though their form is not so good, with just 3 wins in last 9 games, and not undeservedly so, as performances dropped a bit recently as well, highlighted with saturday's 0-0 at home v fellow promotion hopefuls Cittadella, in a game where Monza were outplayed in general and probably should be happy with a point in the end. Two of their biggest stars Boateng and Balotelli are out for this one, but while the former is not irrelevant, Mario's absence should make no difference at all. Youngster Pirola who impressed in last two games will also sit this one out, but except for full 90 mins of playtime in those last 2 games he has just 35 more minutes this season. After 25 games, Monza's +2.20 shtgt differential is the best in the league, while their +4.05 total shots diff is 4th best, there is really little doubt this side is placed in current standings where they should be - and pretty much same can be said for mid-placed Frosinone, who should not flirt with relegation but also should have nothing to do with promotion race... though with playoff system in place, you never know. If Monza's form has dropped a bit in last several weeks, Frosinone's has pretty much plummeted, with just 1 single win in last 13 games, and it was a lucky one, 3-2 away win against the run of play at bottom-placed Entella. Hosts have more quality on paper than what they are showing on field, there are some high profile names for Serie B here, with several of them playing for Frosi in Serie A two seasons ago; and vast majority from last season's playoff run are also here... but this is simply not a good enough 'team', it's the second season in a row they seem to be missing something, they were lucky to get into playoffs last season in first place, then proceeded to almost win it, as they had Spezia on the ropes in that last game, but it wasn't to be. While I was hoping for dnb 180 or -1/4 220+, current price is still high enough as some min to bet would be in range of 203 -1/4.
Lecce-Entella over 2.5 @1.93 is also a bet, though admittedly this line feels too high for Serie B; but first, it is chaotic Lecce who are involved, this is the team whose games (deservedly) had default TG line set to 3.0 this season as well; and on the other side it is Entella, who are leaking goals but also playing with more ambition in recent weeks, their current table position won't be helped with many draws, though they would certainly be happy with one tomorrow. Expected this to be set at 2.75 with overs priced around evens, so really can't resist this, it's basically 17-18 pts from current market price (o2.5 @1.93 / o2.75 @2.19). Lecce won reverse fixture 5-1, can't expect anything similar this time around, but both teams to score and then some more is realistic, keeping clean sheets is not their strength, Entella haven't done so in last 8, crazy Lecce in last 7 (or in 21 of last 23 if you like that more).
While model likes Pisa for tomorrow, this is the game I would disagree with numbers, as Ascoli are one of the most improved sides in last month, their results improved but their performances merited even more, in fact in last 5 games their +6 shots differential and +3.2 shtgt diff are respectively 2nd best and best in the league, this was enough for just 1-2-2 record, and this run included games against Lecce, Salernitana, Pordenone and Frosinone, who are all either in playoff position or close, with only Reggiana in lower part of table (game that Ascoli lost 0-1, but had man disadvantage for 50+ mins and outshot hosts 20-9, on tgt 9-2); prior to this run they beat Brescia 2-1 at home winning shot attempts 25-6 (6-2 on tgt) and had a goalless draw in even game v very good Chievo side. Pisa are a tricky oppo to play against, and current price on Ascoli (208 -1/4) doesn't attract me enough, but in case of some huge move on visitors tomorrow, dnb 187ish on hosts would do it for anti-model bet. All of Pisa's 12 away games had 2 goals or more in it, model has this one at 2.50ish for TG, in case of price improvement overs could be interesting for bet, my current target is over 2.25 @2.03 (in case of 0-0 or 1 goal first half, rough halftime targets would be over 1 @1.75 or over 1.25 @2.25).
For all 3 mentioned games weather should be fine tomorrow, 10-13^c during games, clear or v little precip, no problems.

Hi,  there is no new topic on PL forum for this round (not sure if we are allowed to open these, as they contain some standard odds-rtgs data), so with previous post in this topic previewing game for tomorrow, I will also leave my Italy Serie B comments for tomorrow here, please if moderator can later put the post to appropriate midweek thread (if someone opens it)...
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Frosinone
Monza
20.4%
35.9%
43.7%
27.2%
1.90
2.08
4.67
5.36
10.03
Cittadella
Pescara
57.6%
29.1%
13.3%
26.7%
2.49
2.47
6.44
3.60
10.04
Ascoli
Pisa
31.1%
32.2%
36.7%
22.6%
2.53
2.49
4.99
4.29
9.28
Lecce
Virtus Entella
59.7%
26.2%
14.1%
24.4%
3.05
2.83
5.28
3.75
9.03
Vicenza Virtus
Cremonese
34.9%
33.8%
31.3%
22.1%
2.31
2.35
4.62
4.55
9.16
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Monza -1/4 @2.11 is a bet, although tbh I was hoping for a bit better price, and it may improve later on, but this is already enough to recommend it. Monza are a serious promotion contender this season, no real weak spots in this side, though their form is not so good, with just 3 wins in last 9 games, and not undeservedly so, as performances dropped a bit recently as well, highlighted with saturday's 0-0 at home v fellow promotion hopefuls Cittadella, in a game where Monza were outplayed in general and probably should be happy with a point in the end. Two of their biggest stars Boateng and Balotelli are out for this one, but while the former is not irrelevant, Mario's absence should make no difference at all. Youngster Pirola who impressed in last two games will also sit this one out, but except for full 90 mins of playtime in those last 2 games he has just 35 more minutes this season. After 25 games, Monza's +2.20 shtgt differential is the best in the league, while their +4.05 total shots diff is 4th best, there is really little doubt this side is placed in current standings where they should be - and pretty much same can be said for mid-placed Frosinone, who should not flirt with relegation but also should have nothing to do with promotion race... though with playoff system in place, you never know. If Monza's form has dropped a bit in last several weeks, Frosinone's has pretty much plummeted, with just 1 single win in last 13 games, and it was a lucky one, 3-2 away win against the run of play at bottom-placed Entella. Hosts have more quality on paper than what they are showing on field, there are some high profile names for Serie B here, with several of them playing for Frosi in Serie A two seasons ago; and vast majority from last season's playoff run are also here... but this is simply not a good enough 'team', it's the second season in a row they seem to be missing something, they were lucky to get into playoffs last season in first place, then proceeded to almost win it, as they had Spezia on the ropes in that last game, but it wasn't to be. While I was hoping for dnb 180 or -1/4 220+, current price is still high enough as some min to bet would be in range of 203 -1/4.
Lecce-Entella over 2.5 @1.93 is also a bet, though admittedly this line feels too high for Serie B; but first, it is chaotic Lecce who are involved, this is the team whose games (deservedly) had default TG line set to 3.0 this season as well; and on the other side it is Entella, who are leaking goals but also playing with more ambition in recent weeks, their current table position won't be helped with many draws, though they would certainly be happy with one tomorrow. Expected this to be set at 2.75 with overs priced around evens, so really can't resist this, it's basically 17-18 pts from current market price (o2.5 @1.93 / o2.75 @2.19). Lecce won reverse fixture 5-1, can't expect anything similar this time around, but both teams to score and then some more is realistic, keeping clean sheets is not their strength, Entella haven't done so in last 8, crazy Lecce in last 7 (or in 21 of last 23 if you like that more).
While model likes Pisa for tomorrow, this is the game I would disagree with numbers, as Ascoli are one of the most improved sides in last month, their results improved but their performances merited even more, in fact in last 5 games their +6 shots differential and +3.2 shtgt diff are respectively 2nd best and best in the league, this was enough for just 1-2-2 record, and this run included games against Lecce, Salernitana, Pordenone and Frosinone, who are all either in playoff position or close, with only Reggiana in lower part of table (game that Ascoli lost 0-1, but had man disadvantage for 50+ mins and outshot hosts 20-9, on tgt 9-2); prior to this run they beat Brescia 2-1 at home winning shot attempts 25-6 (6-2 on tgt) and had a goalless draw in even game v very good Chievo side. Pisa are a tricky oppo to play against, and current price on Ascoli (208 -1/4) doesn't attract me enough, but in case of some huge move on visitors tomorrow, dnb 187ish on hosts would do it for anti-model bet. All of Pisa's 12 away games had 2 goals or more in it, model has this one at 2.50ish for TG, in case of price improvement overs could be interesting for bet, my current target is over 2.25 @2.03 (in case of 0-0 or 1 goal first half, rough halftime targets would be over 1 @1.75 or over 1.25 @2.25).
For all 3 mentioned games weather should be fine tomorrow, 10-13^c during games, clear or v little precip, no problems.