Ligue 1 Predictions > Jan 11th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Check out the odds and ratings for the next round of Ligue 1 matches coming up next week. Give us your predictions below! 

[Mrsha]

Rennes -1/2 @1.99
Min price to bet: -1/2 @1.95
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: key lw/cf Terrier out for Rennes (out for season); cm Xeka also unavailable (long-term absentee cm Santamaria still out as well, expected to be back in next couple of weeks)
Note: Terrier's injury is a huge blow for Rennes' ambition, he is a fantastic player that can play in multiple positions, he is one of the best finishers in Ligue 1, and one of the most underrated players in last couple of years - and frankly, it's quite puzzling he is still at Rennes. He has scored 21 goals in 37 Ligue 1 games last season (just 2 from penalties); and this season, he's been Rennes' (by far) best rated player, top scorer (9 goals in 16 games) and joint-leader in assists (4 ast). He suffered a cruciate ligament injury in first half of Rennes' 2-1 home win v Nice on Jan 2 (though before getting injured, he scored a goal for 1-0); and he will be a big miss in the remaining part of the season. Still, Rennes have a huge depth in attacking areas, and this will be a big chance for players like Doku and Sulemana to shine again - both of them have shown plenty of promise, well both of them are quite an established names already, but injuries have slowed them down quite a bit in last couple of years... both are healthy now, and Doku is a natural replacement for Terrier in Rennes' current formation. We have initially downgraded Rennes by 0.15 rtg points after Terrier's injury, there is no guarantee that that adjustment is good/accurate and we may be proven wrong until the end of the season, but it's also difficult not to trust in this hugely talented Rennes' squad. Now, even with Terrier, 4th placed Rennes did have problems on their travels this season, as superb 8-0-1 home record (8 straight wins) is in stark contrast with 2-4-2 on the road; with a small excuse being that, except PSG, they have played each of other top 6 teams on the road (Lens, Marseille, Monaco, Lille). Obviously, they are well aware of their away-game problems, and it was one of the focuses of coach Genesio's press conf today. Clermont won at Lyon 1-0, beating us both on hcap and TG in the process, in what looked like embarrassing bets already early in 1st half (despite market agreeing with us), and terrible Lyon performance overall. Not taking anything from Clermont, but Lyon did make things easy for them there, with incredibly lethargic, unimaginative, truly abysmal performance, which at times looked like as if they didn't care at all. This win has pushed Clermont up to 9th place, well above expectations, but also well above the position their performances so far have merited - luck factor has played an important positive role for Clermont so far. They've done better on the road than at home though, 3 defeats in last 5 at home, including defeats vs relegation candidates Brest and Troyes, who have both scored 3 goals here - and this certainly looks like a venue where Rennes should be able to start on improving on their away record. Weather conditions should be ok; Rennes' rw Bourigeaud has been absolutely sensational since Oct and may have to take on even more responsibilities after Terrier's injury; but him and plethora of attacking talent that Rennes have (Guiri, Kalimuendo, Doku, midfield led by Majer and two fantastic fullbacks in Traore and Truffert/Meling) should make sure that our estimated away win of 54.5% is not too high.

Nice -3/4 @2.13
Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.07 or -1/2 @1.84
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: the hosts' first choice rb Atal is still out-injured; head coach Favre has been sacked, with his assistant and former Nice player Didier Digard taking over hc duties
Note: Ok, we wouldn't have backed Nice here if Favre was still at helm - while he is a quality coach, things were just not all right at Nice since his appointment in the summer, the performances and results were far below expectations, with culmination a few days ago in embarrassing Coupe de France elimination against low-league side Le Puy... and Nice played with very strong 11 there, almost their best possible. Former player Digard is a new coach, he was a member of a coaching staff already and knows the team inside out, but it remains to be seen how successful he will be. So basically, while it was obvious that change is needed, there are no guarantees that this will work, and for us to trust Nice immediately after a coach change is perhaps a bit of a gamble - but looking at their roster, there is no doubt that this is a team with plenty of high quality individuals, and with no doubt that Digard will have their respect, there are some elements that make us confident this will work out well for Nice in 2nd part of the season. Montpellier have shown some signs of improvement since their coach change in mid-Oct, but they still have to be considered as widely erratic side, quite dis-balanced, with their attack miles ahead of their defensive strength (and individual quality); and they also suffered a surprising Cup exit, vs 2nd league side Pau - although at least Montpellier played with a rotated lineup in that one. Ok weather conditions, we est Nice at 58% to win this, and considering their struggles this season, and quite a poor home record (2-3-3, just 6 goals scored in those 8 games), this price could perhaps improve - but ultimately, we do expect a positive reaction after a coach change from players, who have clearly underachieved as a group so far, and perhaps some extra effort to put the Cup embarrassment behind with 3 league points.

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Lorient vs Monaco

In previous matches, Monaco have prevailed against Lorient, 6W-2D-2L, giving them the psychological advantage. According to above, Monaco stand the chance to win in the forthcoming game.

Pick: 2

O/U Pick: Under 2.5/3