Ligue 1 Predictions > Apr 20th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds and ratings for the midweek games coming up in Ligue 1 this week. Tell us what bets you're putting down for these crucial matches scheduled to be played! 

[Mrsha]

This is Ligue 2 fixture, but as there is not much action on forum perhaps better not to open separate thread for one game but rather post the pick here in Fra Ligue 1 topic.

Guingamp o2.25 @1.98
Min price to bet: o2.25 @1.90 or o2.5 @2.19
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: nothing new at Guingamp, first team regular cb/dm Roux still unavailable; some new suspensions at Pau though, key cb/dm Kouassi, cm Sylvestre and backup/rotation fwd Naidji are all unavailable; also still out is first choice gk Olliero
Note: Fine weather and good game expected in Guingamp. The hosts are safe, far away from the promotion playoffs though, so they can play with even more freedom, and perhaps try to end the season in 6th place, it's only 2 pts away with 5 rounds to go. They are in good scoring form, no clean sheets for opponents in their last 6, and at least 2 goals scored in each of the last 4; but on the other hand just 1 clean sheet for them in last 7... and it should be 1 in last 8 after tomorrow's game as Pau have scored in each of their last 4, despite the fact all teams they faced are in top 6 and Ajaccio and Paris have probably two best defenses in the league (well, Ajaccio's 16 conceded in 33 games is truly amazing). With 42 pts Pau are actually not mathematically safe yet, though should survive even if they win no more points until the end of season. This is a side that probably should've been better placed by now, they certainly should've scored more goals, in fact they are 4th in the league in big chances created. Kouassi's absence is important, he is their key defender, he has missed 3 league games this season and 4 last season, they have conceded in each of those 7, solid total of 15 goals. Both to score, Guingamp likely at least 2, prices above 1.90 for o2.25 line def look ok.

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Lille @2.15

Analysis:

France Ligue 1 Round 33 is coming this week. Reims will meet Lille at Stade Auguste Delaune on Wednesday.

Reims
They rank thirteenth at the table of the League, with eight points away from the relegation zone. They are weak in home game, getting no more than 30% winning percentage. In the last game, they tie with Montpellier 0-0.  

Lille
Although they rank eighth in the League table, the gap between them and the fifth is just five points. They still stand the chance to qualify for European games. In addition, they are good at away games, with almost 70% winning percentage.

[Mrsha]

Rennes dnb @2.06
Min price to bet: dnb @2.00
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: - (key cb Aguerd is back for Rennes; cb Bade also finally back in squad, he was out since early Feb; first choice gk Gomis still out)
Note: Two teams that have exceeded expectations this season; Rennes were expected to be good, but not THIS good; while Strasbourg are probably the biggest surprise, still in the battle for Champions League place, with only 6 rounds to go. Just 3 points between these two, in Rennes favor, but Nice are between them in the standings and Monaco in 6th are level on pts with Strasbourg, so it's really tight up there! Strasbourg are unbeaten in last 10, since Jan 23 and bizarre 4-3 defeat against Bordeaux; but while it's a great run, they did lose points to some relegation candidates and lower-mid table sides with draws. They have been involved in almost exclusively low-scoring games these last couple of months, with 9 of last 10 finishing under 2.5 line, 6 of 10 under 1.5... although to be fair to them, it doesn't look like their style or approach has changed much; only that they actually really improved defensively during this season. They could've been even better placed before this game, as they have conceded two very late goals in last two games against Lyon and Troyes, both times losing 1-0 leads to end the game in 1-1 draw. Rennes have been on fire since early Jan, well actually throughout the season, with some truly impressive offensive outputs; 69 goals scored is just 3 less than PSG's 72 (the next best is Strasbourg with 'only' 53); they are 2nd best in big chances created and the best in Ligue 1 in shots and shots on tgt diffs; however on Fri they suffered a damaging 2-3 home defeat against Monaco, one of their direct rivals. Their key cb Aguerd was unavailable for that game and with some other options also unavailable they moved cm Santamaria to cb position, to partner cb Omari, but that decision backfired. Aguerd is back now, ready for this game, and we make the visitors small favorites in Strasbourg, prices above dnb 2.00 are worth a shot. Ok weather.