ALEXXXXXXXX

Exciting news as I've decided to dig up my MLS ratings and projections for the rest of the season.
Below are my current xG ratings and points projections;

Brazil vs Peru
Apologies for the late preview. I've not been feeling very well these past 48 hours with suspected food poisoning so I'm just managing to stir now. It's Brazil versus Peru in the first Copa America 2021 Semi-Final in a 12am BST kick-off on Tuesday morning at the Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro. Can the hosts reach a dream final or will the tournament surprise package make history by upsetting the odds?
Brazil have been the stand out performers at this edition of the Copa America and it's perhaps no shock with them not only boasting arguably the strongest squad but also playing their games on home territory. Tite will be hoping his side can take one big step closer to winning the trophy on home soil by winning this game. Their 1-0 win over Chile in the Quarter-Finals was perhaps more nerve-wracking than it should have been but they kept another clean sheet and showed how resolute their back-line can be when the pressure is on. It's now 11 wins from their last 12 games including 9 clean sheets during those dozen matches.
Peru continue to stun the continent with their performances in this tournament. Ricardo Gareca's men held their nerve to win their Quarter-Final with Paraguay 4-3 on penalties after a 3-3 draw after 90 minutes. The mental strength of Los Incas was proven in the way they bounced back after conceding that 90th minute equaliser to deny them a normal time win. The big news for the team that is a major blow is the absence of attacker Andre Carillo who will serve out a suspension after picking up another booking in that Quarter-Final fixtute.
If there is to be any optimism on Peru's behalf coming into this game then they won't want to look at the head-to-head record against Brazil. Peru have only won 2 of the last 23 meetings. Brazil have also won the last two encounters in the Copa America by an aggregate score of 8-1. I have a feeling we won't see that trend bucked here. I can see Brazil winning this one in a business-like manner.
Brazil to Win to Nil @ 1.73 with Betway
Brazil -1 @ 1.63 with Sporting Index

I think the pre tournament phrase was that it would be as much like roulette as chess, that luck would play as big a part in the outcomes as skill and quality. That seems quite accurate from where we are now.
Some gamblers adopt a more predictive approach, they consider the game and predict what they think will be the outcome and bet accordingly. I suspect that approach will fare less well in an International tournament than it would in domestic league games. Luck has time to even out over a 38 game season but has no such luxury in a Euros or World Cup.
I prefer to attempt (in my own amateurish way) to apply a value approach. I accept that anything could happen and just look for things that are priced bigger than they should be in relation to the probability of them occurring.
I think “Victor Value” will always do better than “Peter Predictor” in the long run (not sure where those came from) but more so in International tournaments.

Switzerland
They are the most surprising team in the Tournament this season. It is out of expectation that they get into the Quarterfinals. Although there is not many big-money players in the team, they have good cooperation and understanding. That's the reason why they always rank top twentieth in the world.
 
Spain
They have been unbeaten this season so far. In last game, they have two goals lead but then come to a draw finally. With the help of Morata and Oyarzabal, they get into Quarterfinals by a 5-3 victory, which makes them in high morale.
 
Spain have a better squad as Granit Xhaka of Switzerland is suspend due to a collection of yellow cards. Without Xhaka, Switzerland do not stand the chance to win. Spain are in good condition. They have the tendency to upgrade.
 
Prediction: 1-2, 1-3

? honestly, it is hard to predict this season cuz i pick wrong for several times...

Hungary
It is unlucky that they are in a group of death this season. The best record they have got in recent years was in UEFA European Championship in 2015, which they came into 1/16 Final. Undoubtedly they want a better record this season.
 
Portugal
They are defending champion. They are one of the favourites to win the cup this season. What they most famous for are Cristiano Ronaldo. It is believed that they will play well as expected with the help of him.
 
Verdict:
The last time they play against each other was in 2017. Portugal get a 1-0 clean sheet Hungary at that time. Portugal need a good start to preserve themselves as the defending champions. So Portugal have the tendency to win

Germany
Although they win over Latvia at 7-1 in last game, they are not in good condition at present. It is can be seen that they draw with Denmark at 1-1 and lose to North Macedonia at 1-2. And they prefer ground ball, which is uneasy to score.
 
France
They were the champion in 2018 FIFA World Cup, which shows their competitiveness. And they are in form, getting a four-match winning streak. What’s more, they are lots of excellent and talent players such as Karim Benzema, Kylian Mbappe Lottin, Kingsley Coman and so on, which fulfills their offensive and defensive.
 
Verdict:
Germany take the lower hand over France in past head-to-head clashes with a record of 2W-3D-5L. Germany are not in form. France are full of ambitions. So France are more likely to win in upcoming game.
 
Goals in Match: Less than 3 goals

Atletico Clube Goianiense VS Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo only scored 1 point in last round. Compared with their weak team, they are confident. The 1X2 first odd is 4.00-3.20-2.00，obvious support the away team. Sao Paulo should win this game.
Pick: 2
Santos VS Ceara
 
Santos lost the game last round, but their strength is better. The 1X2 first odd is 1.85-3.20-3.80，obvious support the home team. Santos should win this game.
Pick: 1
 
Bragantino VS Bahia
Both teams are in good condition, but Bagantino is stronger than Bahia and has a home court advantage. The 1X2 first odd is 1.85-3.30-4.50，obvious support the home team. Bragantino should win this game.
Pick: 1

Denmark
They are underrated. They have been unbeaten in FIFA World Cup qualification, ranking the first in Group F. Besides, there are lots of players who play for Top Five Leagues, can step into each of their places. They are full of potential.
 
Finland
There is not enough quality in the team. They upgrade to the Group stage with a bit of luck. And they are not inform, which have not got any victory in 2021 yet. The most well-known one in the team is goalkeeper, Lukas Hradecky of Bayer Leverkusen.
 
Verdict:
Denmark are certainly better than Finland. Finland are in poor state. It takes time for them to adjust themselves. What’s more, Denmark have home advantage. It is believed that Denmark are going to take three points from Finland in upcoming game.
 
Prediction: 1-0, 2-0

Wales
They play well on defensive, with 8 clean sheets in recent 11 games. But they are weak in offensive. They rely on Gareth Bale to score. Whether Wales play well depends on his form.
 
Switzerland
They are totally different from Wales. They play aggressively, with 12 scoring goals in recent 3 games. Most of their players play for Top Five Leagues, who are full of experience. They cannot be ignored.
 
Verdict:
Switzerland are slightly better than Wales in recent form. Switzerland are in high morale with a three-match winning streak. The result of the games is suggested to be 0-1 or 0-2.
 
Goals in Match: 1-2 goals

England
They are certainly the top team in the Tournament because most of their players are from top Chelsea and Manchester City. And they are in form, which have not suffered any defeat in 2021 yet, even getting 5 clean sheets.
 
Croatia
They can not be ignored as they were the second in 2018 FIFA World Cup. Mateo Kovacic of Chelsea and Sime Vrsaljko of Atletico Madrid have been in squad this season. They have made great preparation for the Tournament, which can be seen in their recent games.
 
Verdict:
There is a gap between two teams. England are top teams with high quality. Croatia are full of potential but lack stability. In addition, England have home advantage. They are in high morale with a long winning streak. So England are more likely to win in upcoming game.
 
Prediction: 1-0, 2-0

Netherlands
They play poorly in these years. They have not been in UEFA European Championship and FIFA World Cup. After Frank de Boer has taken charge of them, they are getting well. They have been unbeaten for four matches.
 
Ukraine
They make progress under the management of Andriy Shevchenko. They play poorly in FIFA World Cup qualification because of injuries. As the injury situation is improving, they are getting back in form.
 
Verdict:
Netherlands take the upper hand over Ukraine in every aspect. But Donny van de Beek and Virgil van Dijk are absent due to injuries, which has an impact on their playing. It is predicted that Netherlands will take one point from Ukraine at least in upcoming game.
 
Prediction: 1-1, 1-0

@Mindfulness will go mad if De Boer somehow leads them to the European Championship after the disaster that was his short reign at Crystal Palace!

Manchester City
It is the first time for them to play for the final of UEFA Champions League. They play so well this season that they have never suffered any defeat yet. And they even get six-match winning streak. They are looking good for a shot at the title.
 
Chelsea
They are more experienced that Man City as they won the champion of the League in 2011-2012 season. In addition, Thomas Tuchel has led PSG and Chelsea coming to the final of the League continuously, which is the one with luck and strategy.
 
Verdict:
Both of them are in form and make great preparation for upcoming game. Manchester City are good at offensive. Chelsea play well on defensive. It is predicted the game will end with a draw in 90 minutes.
 
Goals in Match: 2-3 goals
 
? Of Course Man City

Borussia Dortmund
Thanks to Erling Haland, who has scored 25 goals for Borussia Dortmund this season, they get a seven-match winning streak in recent games. What’s more, they win the title of Germany Cup this season. They are in form.
 
Bayer Leverkusen
They have ranked the top of League table this season, but then they do not play well as they suffer from injuries. Now they are the sixth in League table, with six points ahead of the seventh.
 
Verdict:
There is a gap between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. Borussia Dortmund are in high morale and have home advantage. Bayer Leverkusen are in poor state, which have been winless for two matches. So Borussia Dortmund will possibly win in upcoming game.
 
Prediction: 2-0, 2-1

Swansea City
They play well this season, getting 23W-11D-12L this season. In last game, they get a 1-0 cleans sheet from Barnsley as traveller. They have slight advantage.
 
Barnsley
They play well on offensive, with 1.26 scoring goals in average of this season. And they play well as guest recently, getting 7 victories in recent 10 away games.
 
Verdict:
Swansea City have never been defeated by Barnsley in the past even with 70% winning percentage. The Euro odds is 1.88-3.25-3.35, which is tending to the host. So Swansea City are more likely to win.
 
1x2 Pick: 1

Brentford
They lose to Bournemouth AFC at 1-0 in last game, which ends their four-match losing streak. Ivan Toney is the top scorer in the League, who has scored 31 goals for Brentford this season. And they play well as host, with over 90% unbeaten rate.
 
Bournemouth AFC
Thanks to Arnaut Danjuma, who scores the only one goals in last game, Bournemouth AFC win over Brentford at 1-0 and end their three-match losing streak. They have psychological advantage.
 
Verdict:
Brentford get 3W-3D-4L from Bournemouth AFC in the past. Neither of them take the upper hand or lower hand over each other. Brentford are in form, getting a two-match winning streak and two clean sheets. So Brentford stand the chance to win.
 
Goals in Match: 2-3 goals

Barnsley
They are not in form, which have been winless for two matches. They do not play well in home game recently, getting 2W-3D-2L. And they have even been defeated by Sheffield Wednesday at 1-2 as host.
 
Swansea City
They play well on both offensive and defensive, with 1.22 scoring goals and 0.85 conceding goal in average of this season. Besides, they also play well as traverller, with 70% unbeaten rate in away games this season.
 
Verdict:
Swansea City have never been defeated by Barnsley in past head-to-head clashes. Swansea City are good at away games and Barnsley are weak in home game. So Swansea City are more likely to win.
 
Prediction: 1-2, 1-1

Bournemouth AFC
It it out of expectation that they suffer a three-match losing streak recently, which makes them down to the sixth in the table of the League.
 
Brentford
Instead, they get a four-match winning streak, causing them in high morale. They have scored 7 goals but conceded only one goal during that time.
 
Verdict:
There is a gap between Bournemouth AFC and Brentford. And Brentford are in form now. In addition, Brentford have defeated Bournemouth AFC for twice this season. Thus Brentford have the trend to win.  
 
Prediction: 0-2, 1-2

Luton Town
They are the twelfth in the table of the Tournament. They are in form, which have been unbeaten for four matches. But they do not play well as host, with 36% winning percentage in home game this season.
 
Rotherham United
They rank the twenty-second in the table. If they do not struggle hard, they are likely to degrade. They are in poor state, which have been winless for four matches. They play poorly as traveller, getting 6W-3D-12L in away games this season.
 
Verdict:
Rotherham United are full of ambitions. There is no doubt that they will try their best in the rest of this season. Luton Town are free of stress at present. So it is predicted that Rotherham United are going to win in upcoming game.
 
Luton Town VS Rotherham United
1x2 Pick: 2

Leicester City
They get a four-match unbeaten run in recent games. It is a pity that they just take one point from Southampton in last game even if The Saints have been sent off one person. Now they are sitting in the third place in the table of the League.
 
Newcastle United
They lose to Arsenal at 0-2 in last game. What’s worse, Fabian Schar get a red card. His absence  has an effect on their playing. Luckily they rank the seventeenth in the table of the League, with 9 points away from relegation zone.
 
Verdict:
There is a big gap between Leicester City and Newcastle United. Leicester City are the third in League table while Newcastle United are the seventeenth. And Leicester City get a three-match winning streak from Newcastle United in the past. So Leicester City will possibly win.   
 
Prediction: 2-0, 2-1

AS Roma
They are in poor state, which have been winless for seven matches even suffer a three-match losing streak. And they are under a lot of pressure because they lose to Man United at 2-6 in last round.
 
Manchester United
They are sitting in the second place in English Premier League. They are unlikely to win the title of that as the gap between them and the first is too big. It is undoubted that they will try their best in the League.
 
Verdict:
Manchester United take the upper hand over AS Roma in past head-to-head clashes with a record of 6W-1D-1L. What’s more, Manchester United are on a run now. So Manchester United have the tendency to win.
 
Prediction: 0-2, 1-2

Luton Town
They are the twelfth in the table of the Tournament. They are in form, which have been unbeaten for four matches. But they do not play well as host, with 36% winning percentage in home game this season.
 
Rotherham United
They rank the twenty-second in the table. If they do not struggle hard, they are likely to degrade. They are in poor state, which have been winless for four matches. They play poorly as traveller, getting 6W-3D-12L in away games this season.
 
Verdict:
Rotherham United are full of ambitions. There is no doubt that they will try their best in the rest of this season. Luton Town are free of stress at present. So it is predicted that Rotherham United are going to win in upcoming game.
 
Luton Town VS Rotherham United
1x2 Pick: 2

Manchester City
They are in form, getting a four-match winning streak in various Leagues and Tournament. They rank the top in English Premier League now with 13 points lead, which puts them in an almost unassailable position. And they are stress-free as they get a 2-1 victory from PSG in last round.
 
Paris Saint Germain (PSG)
Kylian Mbappe Lottin who has scored 37 goals and made 10 assists for PSG this season, is their key to success. Whether PSG will play well depends on his state. But PSG still struggle for the title of France Ligue1 as they lack one point to rank the first.
 
Verdict:
Manchester City have never been defeated by PSG in past head-to-head clashes, which take the upper hand. And Manchester City have home advantage. It is believed that Manchester City are going to win in upcoming game.
 
Manchester City VS Paris Saint Germain (PSG)
1x2 Pick: 1

Watford
Watford's victory over rival Norwich in the last round was a great boost to morale, and they still have hopes of winning the title. And the team’s home record is perfect, with 17 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses.
 
Millwall
Millwall has improved a lot this season, but they determined early that they missed the promotion play-offs, which will affect their enthusiasm. They only scored 1 point in the last 3 rounds, scored only 1 goal but lost 7 goals.
 
Verdict:
There is a big gap between the strengths of the two sides. Watford has a home win rate of more than 80% this season, and this game is full of confidence. The 1X2 first odd is 1.62-3.60-6.00, obvious support the home team. Watford should win this game easily.
 
Watford VS Millwall
Pick: Watford