2020 European Championship Quarter-Final Predictions > Jul 2nd & 3rd

[StevieDay1983]

The 2020 European Championship Quarter-Finals have now been confirmed. There are a couple of rest days before we get back into the action but it's four ties that are certain to provide some entertainment and unpredictability. Give us your tips down below! 

[waynecoyne]

5 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

The 2020 European Championship Quarter-Finals have now been confirmed. There are a couple of rest days before we get back into the action but it's four ties that are certain to provide some entertainment and unpredictability. Give us your tips down below! 

i think these are the quarter finals @StevieDay1983?

[harry_rag]

I thought he’d had a brilliant insight for a bet and was just bypassing the quarter final stage!

[waynecoyne]

Looking at the odds i think italy and england are the most obvious winners, this is assuming that de bruyne and hazard are not fit.

Trying to find some value in the outright market 28/1 for the czech republic looks a decent price (sporting index).

I just have a nagging thought that England with this ultra negative coach will find a way to mess it up.

In the other half of the draw Italy are the pick for me but a tough passage through.

[_Ghost_]

Same bet here for me as the Copa America QFs - 10 of 24 Euro QF finals since1996 have ended all square (6 0-0s and 4 1-1s)

Bet

All 4 QF ties to be draws - 0.25pt Yankee (Total Outlay 2.75pts)

[harry_rag]

58 minutes ago, jamied02 said:

Same bet here for me as the Copa America QFs - 10 of 24 Euro QF finals since1996 have ended all square (6 0-0s and 4 1-1s)

Bet

All 4 QF ties to be draws - 0.25pt Yankee (Total Outlay 2.75pts)

I'll be doing something similar, but you're a round late to the party in the Euros! 

[StevieDay1983]

Jesus Christ, these Euros are going on a bit long aren't they?! I'm still working on the 16-team format! Is Franco Baresi still playing? 

[harry_rag]

Going with 6 x 6 point doubles on the draw again at odds of 14/5, 21/10, 9/4 and 17/5 with Uni.

4 draws in the last round, 3 in the latter 4 games which made for 3 winning doubles.

[_Ghost_]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I'll be doing something similar, but you're a round late to the party in the Euros! 

I swerved the R16 given only 1 tournaments worth of data, 2 draws in 8 in 2016, was just watching brief for me. Now 6 in 16 so may be a round to pick your battles in in future renewals

 

[harry_rag]

I decided to bet after reading this article. It is something I've bet on in various ways over the years.

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/temperatures-about-to-rise-as-euro-ties-take-on-more-meaning/497406

[_Ghost_]

Euros data since 1996

*Noticed an error with the TR (Total Red) - should be half what it is showing, TC (Total Cards) and TBk (Total Booking Points) are ok

Edited June 30, 2021 by jamied02

[harry_rag]

Are those just for 90 minutes play or including extra time @jamied02 ?

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Switzerland

They are the most surprising team in the Tournament this season. It is out of expectation that they get into the Quarterfinals. Although there is not many big-money players in the team, they have good cooperation and understanding. That's the reason why they always rank top twentieth in the world.

 

Spain

They have been unbeaten this season so far. In last game, they have two goals lead but then come to a draw finally. With the help of Morata and Oyarzabal, they get into Quarterfinals by a 5-3 victory, which makes them in high morale.

 

Spain have a better squad as Granit Xhaka of Switzerland is suspend due to a collection of yellow cards. Without Xhaka, Switzerland do not stand the chance to win. Spain are in good condition. They have the tendency to upgrade.

 

Prediction: 1-2, 1-3

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

? honestly, it is hard to predict this season cuz i pick wrong for several times...

[harry_rag]

19 minutes ago, ALEXXXXXXXX said:

? honestly, it is hard to predict this season cuz i pick wrong for several times...

I think the pre tournament phrase was that it would be as much like roulette as chess, that luck would play as big a part in the outcomes as skill and quality. That seems quite accurate from where we are now.

Some gamblers adopt a more predictive approach, they consider the game and predict what they think will be the outcome and bet accordingly. I suspect that approach will fare less well in an International tournament than it would in domestic league games. Luck has time to even out over a 38 game season but has no such luxury in a Euros or World Cup.

I prefer to attempt (in my own amateurish way) to apply a value approach. I accept that anything could happen and just look for things that are priced bigger than they should be in relation to the probability of them occurring.

I think “Victor Value” will always do better than “Peter Predictor” in the long run (not sure where those came from) but more so in International tournaments.

[waynecoyne]

Denmark v Czech Republic

Joakim Maehle plays full back for denmark but in a  very attacking mode.

He had a few chances v wales and scored late on. He also scored the final goal in the previous game.

He is 9/1 anytime scorer  with paddy and betfair sportsbook which is out of line (generally around 5/1) 

[waynecoyne]

Belgium Italy

i fancy italy to win this assuming hazard and de bruyne are absent.

Pessina has already scored a couple after coming on as sub and against wales when 8 changes were made.

Were he to start (doubtful) his 6 to buy would look cheap (spreadex).

One price that looks low for Belgium is Tielemans at 3 (sporting index).

He is not too prolific for Belgium (around 1 in 10), but i wonder if he may play a more advanced role if the 2 aforementioned players are unfit

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

Denmark v Czech Republic

Joakim Maehle plays full back for denmark but in a  very attacking mode.

He had a few chances v wales and scored late on. He also scored the final goal in the previous game.

He is 9/1 anytime scorer  with paddy and betfair sportsbook which is out of line (generally around 5/1) 

You snooze, you lose (the value at least). They've trimmed him to 5s now. Looks a decent shout. I'm looking at him from an assist perspective too.

[waynecoyne]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

You snooze, you lose (the value at least). They've trimmed him to 5s now. Looks a decent shout. I'm looking at him from an assist perspective too.

Assist goal minutes were 11 with sporting, spreadex not priced up yet. I looked at his goal minutes v wales and he was 3 to buy, looked at ht was 5, didnt do it and he scores in the 90th, doh.

[waynecoyne]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

You snooze, you lose (the value at least). They've trimmed him to 5s now. Looks a decent shout. I'm looking at him from an assist perspective too.

 

maehle goal minutes 6 to buy with spreadex-i've done this also 

 

[_Ghost_]

On 6/30/2021 at 7:56 PM, harry_rag said:

Are those just for 90 minutes play or including extra time @jamied02 ?

90 mins only

[StefanBB]

Switzerland vs Spain

Switzerland produced the biggest surprise in the tournament after eliminating the current World champions, France. In a fascinating rollercoaster, Vladimir Petkovic’s side kept its nerves in the penalty shootout and continued their campaign. The Swiss team could have beaten Les Bleus in the regulation time if Ricardo Rodrigues converted the penalty for a 2:0 lead. However, after his miss, France dominated the game and quickly went 3:1 ahead. However, Kylian Mbappe and the lads didn’t learn the lesson on Spain’s example and let Switzerland equalize in the last ten minutes of the game. That way, the Swiss side continued its excellent form, as they lost only once on the previous ten occasions. The Rossocrociati fans hope their team can continue its scoring streak, as they netted six times in the last two matches. However, Granit Xhaka will miss this clash due to a suspension. He was instrumental in the middle of the park for Switzerland, and they need to cope with his absence.

Spain went through almost the same scenario as France, but with a happy end. A hilarious own goal saw Croatia taking the lead, but La Furia Roja equalized by halftime. They packed two more in the next 45 minutes, and everybody thought they sealed the victory. However, the World Cup 2018 runners-up secured an extra time after leveling up the game in the last five minutes. Unlike France, Luis Enrique’s side scored two in the additional 30 minutes and avoided a risk going into the penalty shootout. The game against Croatia showed Spain is vulnerable against physically stronger teams, but Alvaro Morata and the lads improved their finishing in that match. Spain needs to eliminate negative intervals in their game to avoid getting into the same trouble again.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Both teams head to this game after putting additional effort in the previous round. Spain is a slight favorite in this clash, and although they had troubles with Switzerland lately, we believe they will secure a victory.

Goals Market Prediction

Switzerland has been pretty efficient lately, and Haris Seferovic could pose a major threat to the Spanish defense. On the other hand, La Furia Roja improved its finishing as well, and we could see at least three goals in this encounter.

Spain to Win @ 1.70 

Over 2.5 FT @ 2.00 

Correct score 1:2 @ 9.00

[StefanBB]

Belgium vs Italy

The Red Devils have a perfect record in this tournament, as they celebrated in all four matches. Their group stage campaign went very smoothly, except for the game against Denmark when they needed to come from behind. Roberto Martinez’s side already had a tough challenge in the eighth-finals, but they managed to remain in the competition. Romelu Lukaku and the lads eliminated the defending champions, Portugal, from EURO 2020 thanks to Thorgan Hazard’s goal. However, Portugal dominated the second half, and Belgium was lucky not to go into the extra time. The Red Devils might have severe selection troubles since Eden Hazard and Kevin de Bruyne are doubtful for this match. Nevertheless, Roberto Martinez hopes that one of Belgium’s key players could be ready to step up and help. Belgium booked five straight victories and wants to continue that run.

Italy’s streak is even better since Azzurri celebrated 12 wins in a row. Roberto Mancini’s side was dominant in the group stage, as they secured the top spot without conceding. Although they didn’t have a very challenging opponent in the eighth-finals, Italy went into the extra time against Austria. Ciro Immobile and the lads failed to unlock the opponent’s goal in 90 minutes, but they scored twice in the additional 30 for a 2:1 victory. Italy needs to improve its game in the middle of the park if they want to be more dangerous for the rival’s net. This time, the opponent is much more challenging, and Azzurri should be more creative. Italy hasn’t lost 31 games in a row, and they hope to extend this stunning streak even more.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be a very tight clash, and it can go either way. However, we see Italy here as a slight favorite, and Azzurri might secure a vital victory in the regulation time of the match.

Goals Market Prediction

Both sides have been pretty hard to crack in the back recently. Belgium conceded only once in the last five games, while Italy kept 11 consecutive clean sheets before conceding against Austria. We don’t expect to see too many goals here, and the clash should stay under a 2.5 margin.

Italy to Win @ 2.40 

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.60 

Correct score 0:1 @ 7.00

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Switzerland 18/1

2-1 Spain 8/1

2-1 Belgium 12-1

2-1 Italy 10/1

[StevieDay1983]

Switzerland vs Spain

The 2020 European Championship Semi-Finals Quarter-Finals are here! Four games taking place over two days begin on Friday afternoon at 5pm BST from the Krestovsky Stadium in St Petersburg when Switzerland look to reach the Semi-Finals of a major international tournament for the first time ever against Spain who will be aiming to win a third European Championship trophy in four tournaments.

Switzerland pulled off arguably the result of the tournament when they knocked out the pre-tournament favourites France on penalties after a 3-3 draw in the last 16. Head coach Vladimir Petkovic has seen his team defy the odds to get to this stage having qualified for the knockout stages in 3rd place from Group A. Credit to the Swiss for navigating their way to this stage having travelled out to Baku, then onto Rome, then back to Baku, and then to Bucharest before heading to St Petersburg for this game. How much more can they give? Still, history is there to be made tonight. Switzerland have lost all three of their previous appearances in the Quarter-Finals of major tournaments but they were all World Cups (1934, 1938, and 1954). Striker Haris Seferovic could be the man to watch having bagged 3 goals in his last 2 games for his nation.

Spain have been considered a team that have the potential to cause real damage at this tournament. We saw the impotency of Luis Enrique's side in their first two group games as they drew with both Sweden and Poland but the 5-0 hammering of Slovakia in that final group game was a warning to every other nation in this tournament. The Spaniards played a risky game against Croatia in their last 16 clash though winning 5-3 after extra-time. The fact they have now scored 10 goals in their last 2 tournament matches is frightening. The statistics are also quite astonishing given they have averaged 73.4% possession and a passing accuracy of 89.5%. In Ferran Torres, they also have a striker who is proving himself to be one to watch having scored 7 goals in his last 9 appearances for Spain.

These two sides have met three times previously at major international tournaments with all three encounters coming at World Cups. Spain won the first two in 1966 and 1994 but it was Switzerland who won the last meeting in 2010. However, that was the year Spain went all the way to lift the trophy. Unfortunately, if Spain were to lose this one they couldn't go on to lift the trophy. I think they should have enough though. You wonder how much the travelling and emotional impact of the win over France has taken out of the Swiss. This could be the moment where they hit the wall.

Spain -1 @ 2.90 with RedZone

Spain HT/FT @ 2.84 with SBK

[_Ghost_]

Below is a snapshot of how the 8 Quarter Finalists have performed in competitive matches starting from the World Cup in 2018 and then the last 2 seasons.

Belgium v Italy really is the irresistible force meets the immoveable object..

[StevieDay1983]

Belgium vs Italy

The Quarter-Finals continue at the 2020 European Championship on Friday night as two of the remaining favourites left in the competition face each other when Belgium play Italy in an 8pm BST kick-off at the Allianz Arena in Munich. It's a reunion between Roberto Martinez and Roberto Mancini who previously met in the 2013 FA Cup Final when Martinez's Wigan upset the odds to beat Mancini's Manchester City to lift the trophy. Will history repeat itself?

Belgium came into this tournament as the number one ranked team in the FIFA world rankings. Martinez has seen his side cruise to this stage of the competition after topping Group B with three wins from three games and then earning a relatively comfortable 1-0 win over a talented Portugal side. It was at this stage 5 years ago that Wales inflicted a shock defeat on the Red Devils so there is that feeling that they have some demons to exorcise. They have won 11 of their last 13 matches now and have scored 32 goals in the process. It is just 1 loss from their last 27 games now. Striker Romelu Lukaku is in fine form with 3 goals so far. Not only is this a Belgian team packed with quality but the players appear to be in fine fettle right now.

Italy were my picks to go all the way so I'll be keen to see how this game goes. Mancini has turned a side that was humiliated by group stage exits at the 2010 and 2014 World Cups and then failure to even qualify for the 2018 World Cup into a team that has now gone a record breaking 31 games without defeat. This run includes 12 wins in a row now. This will be the fourth European Championship Quarter-Final in a row for Italy with all three previous matches being decided on penalties. The goal the Azzurri conceded against Austria in extra-time was the first goal let in by their back-line in over 19 hours and 28 minutes. You have to feel that keeping a tight line at the back will be key if they're to progress past this latest challenge.

Wow, what a game we could be in for here. I have seen Belgium splitting a lot of opinions during this tournament. Some say they have looked in their best form under Martinez but then others have said they are the biggest myth in football after Cristiano Ronaldo's free-kicks. Meanwhile, Italy have been earning praise and showed against Austria in the last 16 that they can still play poorly and get the job done. I wouldn't be surprised if 90 minutes fails to separate these two but I have to stick with my pre-tournament picks of Italy to qualify.

Draw @ 3.10 with Unibet

Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.66 with SBK

[Taykies]

On 6/30/2021 at 9:59 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

The 2020 European Championship Quarter-Finals have now been confirmed. There are a couple of rest days before we get back into the action but it's four ties that are certain to provide some entertainment and unpredictability. Also try to play here. Give us your tips down below! 

Will bet a crazy one - total 1+ Belgium, total 1.5+ Czech - Denmark, total 1+ Ukraine. My predictions to semi-finals: Switzerland-Belgium England-Denmark.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Taykies

[harry_rag]

20 points on >3.5 Switzerland corners at 9/4 Uni and 15 on >4.5 at 21/5 PP

Slightly contrarian perhaps (and not supported by Spain conceding only 2 corners so far) but I think there may be periods of this game where the Swiss are on the front foot. They got 12 and 8 against Wales and Turkey but only 2 and 3 against Italy and France. 2 or 3 against Spain is a more likely outcome but, at the odds, I'm happy to take a chance on them exceeding expectations. If they go behind they'll have to go for it and, if not, they would probably regret sitting back for the entire game and soaking up so much pressure.

[harry_rag]

As well as the draw doubles I'm sticking with backing the games to go to pens as well.

15 points at 7.49 on BF in Switzerland v Spain (beats the best available 6/1)

15 points at 5/1 with Lads in Italy v Belgium

(Both by dutching the price for each team to win on pens.)