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The Brigadier

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  1. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    Flat selection
    Newmarket 3.50
    STAR OF ORION
  2. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    513 newb 
    Sir Thomas Grisham 8.2 6/1 
    Leap abroad   8.1 11/2 
    Epsom faithful   8.1 14/1 
    Under the twilight  8.0 28/1 
    Twilight madness   7.6 
    Very close race ...moreover than betting suggests ....bookies fancy the top 2 but I think there's loads of value In Epsom and under ....so I'll try 5pt ew both and hope they spring a surprise 
  3. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    Patent. 
    3.42. Thirsk. Hiya Maite        4/1   unpl
    2.40. Newm.  Quinault           3/1    1st 
    1.30. Newm. South Kensington     3/1   unpl
    stk 3.50   rtn 74.00
    Good luck all. 
  4. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Villa Chris in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    What I don’t get is the going stick at Uttoxeter is 5.7 and at Bangor it’s 7.3 with both going described as Good . I live near Uttoxeter and the past couple of days we’ve had some heavy downpours so maybe it is good ground but on the softer side of good. 
  5. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to calva decoy in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    I've backed CHAMERON in Uttoxeter's 6.35 each way bet365 14/1 ( 4 places ) , maybe a bit high in the weights & would like to see soft in the going but when came to UK last won at Hexham & the only Irish raider on the card . non runner .
  6. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Villa Chris in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    2.45 Bangor  El Borracho 2/1
    Pretty consistent in whatever sphere he runs in and won on the flats two weeks ago which will have him fit for this drop in grade over hurdles . Obvious choice .
    6.35 Uttoxeter Cap Du Nord 6/1
    Drops a couple of grades into this class 3. Inconsistent and he could be getting his mark down for a bigger prize but the class horse in the race . I have Risk And Roll just behind him who ran well last time out. 
     
    7.05 Uttoxeter Uhtred 4/1
    Good run last time out at 2.5 and looks like he needs this extra distance . Certainly won’t have it easy though in what is a competitive race . 
     
    5 points win all 3 
  7. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    Doncaster
    Single.
    8.20. Open Market         11/1
    stk. 5.00     rtn. 60.00
    Newbury
    Patent
    4.45. Bluestockings       6/5
    3.00. Royal Rhyme         11/2
    4.10. Outbreak            15/2
    stk. 3.50      113.50
    Good luck all.
  8. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    Patent.
    3.50. Newm. Star of Orion        5/1    unpl
    2.25. Newb. Haskoy                  10/3   1st 
    2.05. Newm Totnes                     4/1   unpl
    stk. 3.50.      rtn. 111.50
    Good luck all.
  9. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    The big handicap this Saturday is the London Gold Cup at Newbury. This premier handicap is for 3-year-olds and is run over 1 mile and 2 furlongs. Off time is 15.00.
    16 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
     
    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
    Horses should ideally have had a reasonable rest. Those that last ran more than 31 days ago have won 6 times form 28 attempts with a profit of 16 points at Betfair Starting Price. Those that have run more recently have just 2 wins from 69 attempts with a loss of 54 points.
    It is best to stick with those horses at the top of the betting. From the top 3 in the betting there have been 6 wins from 26 runs and a profit of 19 points.
    Those drawn in stalls 1 to 3 have the best record with 4 wins from 22 runs and a profit of 11 points.
     
    Only 1 horse matches these criteria.
    DESERT HERO 9/2
    I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 5 places.
     
  10. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Bang on in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.
  11. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from maxironchin in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.
  12. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from MinellaWorksop in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.
  13. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.
  14. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.
  15. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    Lockinge 
    Light Infantry   8.7 10/1 
    Mutasaabeq   8.6  13/2 
    Laurel     8.2 
    Top 2 are good value ew ...but laurel could be a danger with frankie up  ...I'll try 10pt ew top 2 and ew doubles with top 2 both races 
  16. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from fd1972uk in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.
  17. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    London gold cup 
    Royal rhyme  9.0 6/1
    Bertinelli  8.4  8/1 
    Very open race with lots of potential improvers ......computer has royal rhyme well clear 🤔...but that's on soft so everything will hinge on how he takes to the better ground ...if it doesn't inconvenience him then I think he will run well....I'll try 10pt ew top 2 
  18. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May   
    A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.
  19. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Friday 19th May   
    The final day of three of the Dante York meeting with the feature race The Yorkshire Cup run at 15:35. We have five races there and a class 4 20 runner handicap from Newbury. Good ground all round with drying conditions. Here are my free horse racing tips for the days terrestrial action.   York 13:50 The 5F Marygate Fillies Stakes is a listed race for two year old fillies and kicks proceedings off today. Dominic Ffrench-Davis is having his best ever season with Amo Racing running from his Lambourn stables and I was most impressed with his 145,000 guineas yearling Persian Dreamer who ran out a clear cut winner at Newmarket on her debut 30 days ago and it will take a good one to beat her today. If there is one to bustle her up it may be the Karl Burke trained juvenile Got To Love A Grey who was also visually very impressive when scooting clear of her field at Nottingham on soft ground in April. The race can be fought out by the pair with definite preference for Persian Dreamer. Karl Burke also saddles Dorothy Lawrence with Ryan Moore on board but it will be a surprise if she can turn the tables on Persian Dreamer as she was 3 1/4L behind that one on her debut. Rod Millman has a good squad of two year olds this season and his Beenham looked good in winning at Goodwood last time and shouldn’t disgrace herself but for me this is all about Amo Racing’s Persian Dreamer.   PERSIAN DREAMER 2 points win @ 6/4   Newbury 14:05 A twenty runner class 3 handicap for four year olds and upwards rated 0-88 is up next from Newbury. The key form race here is the class 4 handicap run over course and distance on soft ground in April where Harry Eustace’s Mustazeed came late to beat John Flint’s Time Interval by 3/4L with James Fanshawe’s Tuxedo Junction 1 1/2L back in third and now 6lb better off. That was an eye catching run from the latter who had been off 183 days and his first run since being gelded. I fully expect Tuexdo Junction to turn the tables on the two that finished ahead of him that day as the drying ground is more likely to be in his favour than the other two mudlarks. Well drawn in stall 6 he looks worth an each way bet with Danny Muscutt doing the steering. Two to watch carefully in the market are the Ian Williams trained Tribal Wisdom who’s joined Williams from the Godolphin operation at a cost of £35,000 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Premiere Ligne has joined his shrewd stable from France for £26,000 having won twice in his native company. There’s plenty of dead wood in the race and it’s Tuxedo Junction for me.   TUXEDO JUNCTION 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345   York 14:25 Ten promising fillies line up for the listed 1M Oaks Farms Stables Fillies’ Stakes. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Lady looked smart when winning a Newmarket 1M maiden at the Craven meeting by just under 4L and should be thereabouts although it’s rather surprising that she wasn’t entered for any Royal Ascot races notably the Coronation Stakes which six of her opponents were entered for recently. As big as 9/2 in the week the value has evaporated from her now. John and Thady Gosden unleash their impressive Ascot winner from 16 days ago and the Kingman filly looked good that day and is another to consider along with the Sir Michael Stoute contender Stormy Sea who is a half sister to the smart Bay Bridge and races in the same colours as her illustrious half brother. She took a Haydock maiden easily three weeks ago and is another who can run well although again it’s surprising that she has no Royal Ascot entries. Juliet Sierra has it to do with a penalty for last year’s Group 3 Salisbury victory whilst William Haggas saddles two improvers in Newmarket winner from last October Orchid Bloom and Shadwell owned Fakhama who won on her debut at Newbury and has been given the Coronation Stakes entry. The Irish runner trained by Jessie Harrington Sounds Of Heaven has some fancy future entries on both sides of the Irish Sea and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly with her Leopardstown maiden win from last October working out well (the runner up that day Boogie Woogie was 6th in the French 1000 last weekend). This is a very informative fillies race that will most certainly be worth following with many holding chances. I’ll take the Stoute filly Stormy Sea under Ryan Moore to score to small stakes.   STORMY SEA 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   York 15:00 The class 2 Knights Solicitors Handicap is run over 1m 2 1/2F and is for four year olds and upwards with a field of 13 going to post. It’s certainly not the strongest York handicap I’ve seen and my fancy is the Richard Fahey trained Spirit Dancer who is making his seasonal re-appearance here. He’s always run well at this track with his form figures here reading 54412 and if ready to go today can take this competitive handicap. A couple of interesting runners are the William Haggas trained Aramaic who we haven’t seen on a racecourse since September 2021 having been gelded in the interim. The market will no doubt tell us if he’s expected to figure today. The other horse of interest is the Andrew Balding trained, Qatar Racing owned Nobel who is making his handicap debut following wind surgery and being off for 201 days. As with the aforementioned Aramaic a market watch is essential. James Ferguson saddles an interesting runner in Diderot who has shown little in three turf starts but has plenty of all weather form and races today off a 7lb lower mark than his all weather mark. David O’Meara loves a winner at York and he saddles Eeetee who is up 4lb for winning at Haydock three weeks ago whilst top weight Masekela trained by Andrew Balding is taking a drop in class in his first handicap. A tough race but if straight enough it’s Spirit Dancer for me.   SPIRIT DANCER 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:35 The Yorkshire Cup, a Group 2 race run over 14F, has a different feel to it this year with no Stradivarius who won it on three of the last four years but we still have seven staying horses. The recent key piece of form is the Dubai Gold Cup run over 2M at Meydan 55 days ago where Aidan O’Brien’s globe trotting Broome came late and fast to collar Charlie Appleby’s Siskany on the line. There was a neck between the pair and dropping back to 14F should suit the pair of them so they are hard to split. Behind them and seemingly held that day were Get Shirty and Giavellotto whilst Quickthorn was 7 1/2L back in 7th and it surprises me that Hughie Morrison’s six year old is ahead of Broome and Siskany in the betting today. Roger Varian brings last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov here but he is penalised 5lb and this is his first run of the season which is geared around a go at the Ascot Gold Cup in three weeks time. He may just need this run and preference is for the Godolphin runner Siskany under William Buick who is the highest rated horse in the race (by a pound from Broome).   SISKANY 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   York 16:10 Just seven have declared for this interesting 1M class 2 Novice Stakes. The second and third from the Wood Ditton are here in the shape of William Haggas’s Kathab and Andrew Balding’s New Business. They were both making their racecourse debuts that day when finishing 3L and 4 1/2L respectively behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger at Newmarket and we should obviously be keeping an eye on how Passenger does in the Dante Stakes on Thursday afternoon to see whether there’s a form boost. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of promising colts in Mostabshir who was last seen when running 5th in the Craven Stakes, beaten 7 3/4L and was put in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot recently. Two things against him here is the 6lb penalty he has to shoulder for a Kempton win last November and the fact that Jim Crowley appears to have chosen Kathab over him as they both race in the blue and white Shadwell Stud colours although William Buick is hardly a downgrade in jockeys. The other Gosden runner is Ziryab who showed some promise at Yarmouth on his debut. I’ll take William Haggas’s Kathab to confirm Wood Ditton form with New Business and beat his owners stable mate Mostabshir.   KATHAB 1 point win @ 2/1 William Hill   All odds were accurate at time of writing.  
  20. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat- Thursday 18th May   
    Day 2 of York’s Dante meeting with the feature race the Dante Stakes due to be off at 15.35. The ITV cameras are also showing a 2 year old conditions race from Salisbury. The ground is drying at both tracks with good at York and slightly slower at good to soft at Salisbury.   York 13:50 The days action starts with a 14 runner 5F 4 year olds and upwards class 2 handicap. Tim Easterby’s Copper Knight has won two of the last three renewals of this race (he was 8th last year) and must have claims although he’s not getting any younger at 9 years of age. John Butler’s Designer won over course and distance at the Ebor meeting last August and comes into the equation having had a run already this season but is 10lb higher now than that win and may need to come down the handicap a bit before visiting the winners enclosure again. Roger Teal’s Whenthedealisdone ran well enough at Goodwood a fortnight ago to suggest he can play a part in the finish especially with William Buick booked. Karl Burke’s Korker is my idea of the winner though. A winner of a three year old only 5F handicap at this meeting last year, he kept good company after without winning and a down the field run in a Group 3 at Newmarket on possibly unsuitable soft ground 12 days ago prompted a further 2lb drop in the weights putting him just 5lb higher than last year’s 2 1/2L success. He has been slowly away before so that’s something to bear in mind. Burke has his string in fine form and with his regular pilot Clifford Lee on board can run well each way.   KORKER 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Salisbury 14:05 Off to Wiltshire for a 5F two year old fillies conditions stakes contest featuring two penalised winners. The William Haggas trained Relief Rally won well at Windsor on her debut and incurs a 4lb penalty here. That form has been boosted since by the 8L fifth winning since by 5L and she should go well. Eve Johnson Houghton appears to have a good bunch of juveniles this season and saddles easy Bath winner Juniper Berries. That form is beginning to work out very well with the 3rd and 4th (by 5L) both winning since. She is only penalised 2lb for that victory and has to be the pick here en route to Royal Ascot if all goes well. A market watch must be kept on the two unraced fillies from the more than capable yards of Ralph Beckett and Clive Cox who both receive an unraced allowance of 3lb. The other pair raced against each other over course and distance a fortnight with Rod Millman’s Chinese Knot running well to finish third and is not out of this. With her form working out well it has to be Juniper Berries for me though.   JUNIPER BERRIES 2 points win @ 6/5 BetVictor   York 14:25 The Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Stakes is up next. A Group 2 contest for 4 year old fillies and mares only run over 1M 2 1/2F of the Knavesmire has attracted a field of eight. Clear favourite and officially 6lb and more ahead of her rivals is the John and Thady Gosden trained Free Wind, who looked a progressive mare last season when blitzing her opponents on her only run in the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock in July on soft ground. She has good winning Group form on fast ground as well so the drying ground shouldn’t be an issue for her. She has however not been seen since that impressive win and at a rather skinny price it may pay to look for something each way against her as long as the dead eight all run. The one that interests me is the Richard Hannon trained, Sean Levey ridden Aristia who started out in this race last year when finishing runner up to to Lilac Road at 20/1. She finished her season by winning the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville for which she picks up a 3lb penalty today. Each way she looks the value if straight enough (she won first time out as a two year old as well as her good run in this a year ago). Roger Varian has taken charge of the German Oaks winner from last season Toscana Belle who also has picked up a 3lb penalty for that Group 1 victory. Sea Silk Road races for the William Haggas team and had some good form last season though I’m still a bit worried about the form of the Newmarket handler. The most likeliest winner has to be Free Wind but Aristia each way appeals as better value.   ARISTIA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 123   York 15:00 A cracking renewal with a maximum field of twenty assemble for the Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap run over just short of a mile of the Knavesmire. Last year’s one-two Cruyff Turn and Brunch are back to renew battle and on identical terms there’s likely to be little between them again although the former appears to have fared best with the drawn in stall 3. Both are one pound lower than last year. The likely favourite and well found in the market is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Assessment who has plenty going for him beside his price at around the 3/1 mark. He won a one mile all weather handicap at Kempton, his first run since being gelded, last month with a 6lb rise and a nice draw in stall 9 looks the one to beat. Nigel Tinkler’s Isla Kai likes this track and has fallen in the weights although a wide draw in stall 18 is not ideal. Karl Burke’s Eileen Dubh also has claims having won twice over course and distance last season and can run well although he too has to navigate from a high draw in 15. One horse who does appeal to me at a price is Astro King, who it must be said was a bit of an under achiever when trained by Sir Michael Stoute at Newmarket although he did place in the Royal Hunt Cup off of a mark of 98 and behind Cruyff Turn over course and distance off of 102 back in 2021. Things didn’t pan out that well last season although he did finish 4th in the Royal Hunt Cup off of 102 when going off favourite. He’s left Stoute’s now for what appears to be a cheap £36,000 for a horse now rated 99 and joined the husband and wife team of Daniel and Claire Kubler at Lambourn. He’s won first time out twice before so maybe a absence of 215 day is not a bad thing and a plum draw in 4 makes him look even more interesting. A very tough handicap with Assessment the one to beat but no value at the price so I’ll take a chance each way with additional places with Astro King.   ASTRO KING 1 point each way @ 22/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   York 15:35 A fascinating renewal of the meeting’s feature race the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes run over 1M 2 1/2F with a healthy sized field of a dozen three year old colts attempting to put their case forward for the Epsom Derby in two weeks time. James Ferguson’s Canberra Legend is unbeaten in two including at Newmarket in listed company at the Craven meeting. He’s hard to assess but looks smart. In the same ‘could be anything’ bracket is the Sir Michael Stoute runner Passenger who ran away with the Wood Ditton at Newmarket on his only run and represents last years winning trainer and jockey combo of Stoute and Richard Kingscote who won with Desert Crown last year before going on to take the Derby a fortnight later. We have two Irish runners in the Aidan O’Brien trained unbeaten colt Continous under Ryan Moore and the Ballysax winner White Birch trained by John Joseph Murphy and ridden by Shane Foley. The latter would be the preferred of the pair and could be useful. The Godolphin operation have Flying Honours who is only officially rated a pound behind the top rated here who is Andrew Balding’s The Foxes, last seen when runner up in the Craven at Newmarket. Throw in the Gosden’s Epsom Trial winner Epictetus and we have an intriguing contest which should unravel the pecking order for the Epsom Derby. From a punting view the race looks very tough to assess but I was very taken by Passenger’s win at Newmarket and I’ll play to small stakes each way in the hope that Sir Michael Stoute has another potential Derby winner in his care.   PASSENGER 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 16:10 Eleven speedy three year olds line up for this listed 5F British EBF 40th Anniversary Weston Stakes. It has quite an open feel about it with the joint two officially rated both making their seasonal re-appearances. Rocket Rodney was a smart juvenile for George Scott winning twice and placed in Group company including when going down by a neck to Little Big Bear at Royal Ascot. He can be competitive if ready to go after a 259 day layoff along with David Loughnane’s Walbank who reappears following a 295 day absence with a first time tongue tie fitted. Owners Clipper Logistics who love to have winners at York have two here in Karl Burke’s Pillow Talk and Kevin Ryan’s Silent Word. Both are speedy types who could run well. The hard one to assess has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained Hispanic who is officially only 4lb behind the highest rated and with Ryan Moore on top is another potential player. One horse who we know will be fit is the Declan Carroll trained Changeofmind who looked all about speed when beating subsequent winner Tawalla by 3L at Catterick three weeks ago and although this represents a step up in grade could be a bit of each way value here. Ridden by Harrison Shaw he can run well here and in an open contest is a tentative selection.   CHANGEOFMIND 1 point each way 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   All odds are accurate at time of writing.  
  21. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from kensland in Racing Chat - Friday 19th May   
    The final day of three of the Dante York meeting with the feature race The Yorkshire Cup run at 15:35. We have five races there and a class 4 20 runner handicap from Newbury. Good ground all round with drying conditions. Here are my free horse racing tips for the days terrestrial action.   York 13:50 The 5F Marygate Fillies Stakes is a listed race for two year old fillies and kicks proceedings off today. Dominic Ffrench-Davis is having his best ever season with Amo Racing running from his Lambourn stables and I was most impressed with his 145,000 guineas yearling Persian Dreamer who ran out a clear cut winner at Newmarket on her debut 30 days ago and it will take a good one to beat her today. If there is one to bustle her up it may be the Karl Burke trained juvenile Got To Love A Grey who was also visually very impressive when scooting clear of her field at Nottingham on soft ground in April. The race can be fought out by the pair with definite preference for Persian Dreamer. Karl Burke also saddles Dorothy Lawrence with Ryan Moore on board but it will be a surprise if she can turn the tables on Persian Dreamer as she was 3 1/4L behind that one on her debut. Rod Millman has a good squad of two year olds this season and his Beenham looked good in winning at Goodwood last time and shouldn’t disgrace herself but for me this is all about Amo Racing’s Persian Dreamer.   PERSIAN DREAMER 2 points win @ 6/4   Newbury 14:05 A twenty runner class 3 handicap for four year olds and upwards rated 0-88 is up next from Newbury. The key form race here is the class 4 handicap run over course and distance on soft ground in April where Harry Eustace’s Mustazeed came late to beat John Flint’s Time Interval by 3/4L with James Fanshawe’s Tuxedo Junction 1 1/2L back in third and now 6lb better off. That was an eye catching run from the latter who had been off 183 days and his first run since being gelded. I fully expect Tuexdo Junction to turn the tables on the two that finished ahead of him that day as the drying ground is more likely to be in his favour than the other two mudlarks. Well drawn in stall 6 he looks worth an each way bet with Danny Muscutt doing the steering. Two to watch carefully in the market are the Ian Williams trained Tribal Wisdom who’s joined Williams from the Godolphin operation at a cost of £35,000 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Premiere Ligne has joined his shrewd stable from France for £26,000 having won twice in his native company. There’s plenty of dead wood in the race and it’s Tuxedo Junction for me.   TUXEDO JUNCTION 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345   York 14:25 Ten promising fillies line up for the listed 1M Oaks Farms Stables Fillies’ Stakes. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Lady looked smart when winning a Newmarket 1M maiden at the Craven meeting by just under 4L and should be thereabouts although it’s rather surprising that she wasn’t entered for any Royal Ascot races notably the Coronation Stakes which six of her opponents were entered for recently. As big as 9/2 in the week the value has evaporated from her now. John and Thady Gosden unleash their impressive Ascot winner from 16 days ago and the Kingman filly looked good that day and is another to consider along with the Sir Michael Stoute contender Stormy Sea who is a half sister to the smart Bay Bridge and races in the same colours as her illustrious half brother. She took a Haydock maiden easily three weeks ago and is another who can run well although again it’s surprising that she has no Royal Ascot entries. Juliet Sierra has it to do with a penalty for last year’s Group 3 Salisbury victory whilst William Haggas saddles two improvers in Newmarket winner from last October Orchid Bloom and Shadwell owned Fakhama who won on her debut at Newbury and has been given the Coronation Stakes entry. The Irish runner trained by Jessie Harrington Sounds Of Heaven has some fancy future entries on both sides of the Irish Sea and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly with her Leopardstown maiden win from last October working out well (the runner up that day Boogie Woogie was 6th in the French 1000 last weekend). This is a very informative fillies race that will most certainly be worth following with many holding chances. I’ll take the Stoute filly Stormy Sea under Ryan Moore to score to small stakes.   STORMY SEA 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   York 15:00 The class 2 Knights Solicitors Handicap is run over 1m 2 1/2F and is for four year olds and upwards with a field of 13 going to post. It’s certainly not the strongest York handicap I’ve seen and my fancy is the Richard Fahey trained Spirit Dancer who is making his seasonal re-appearance here. He’s always run well at this track with his form figures here reading 54412 and if ready to go today can take this competitive handicap. A couple of interesting runners are the William Haggas trained Aramaic who we haven’t seen on a racecourse since September 2021 having been gelded in the interim. The market will no doubt tell us if he’s expected to figure today. The other horse of interest is the Andrew Balding trained, Qatar Racing owned Nobel who is making his handicap debut following wind surgery and being off for 201 days. As with the aforementioned Aramaic a market watch is essential. James Ferguson saddles an interesting runner in Diderot who has shown little in three turf starts but has plenty of all weather form and races today off a 7lb lower mark than his all weather mark. David O’Meara loves a winner at York and he saddles Eeetee who is up 4lb for winning at Haydock three weeks ago whilst top weight Masekela trained by Andrew Balding is taking a drop in class in his first handicap. A tough race but if straight enough it’s Spirit Dancer for me.   SPIRIT DANCER 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:35 The Yorkshire Cup, a Group 2 race run over 14F, has a different feel to it this year with no Stradivarius who won it on three of the last four years but we still have seven staying horses. The recent key piece of form is the Dubai Gold Cup run over 2M at Meydan 55 days ago where Aidan O’Brien’s globe trotting Broome came late and fast to collar Charlie Appleby’s Siskany on the line. There was a neck between the pair and dropping back to 14F should suit the pair of them so they are hard to split. Behind them and seemingly held that day were Get Shirty and Giavellotto whilst Quickthorn was 7 1/2L back in 7th and it surprises me that Hughie Morrison’s six year old is ahead of Broome and Siskany in the betting today. Roger Varian brings last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov here but he is penalised 5lb and this is his first run of the season which is geared around a go at the Ascot Gold Cup in three weeks time. He may just need this run and preference is for the Godolphin runner Siskany under William Buick who is the highest rated horse in the race (by a pound from Broome).   SISKANY 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   York 16:10 Just seven have declared for this interesting 1M class 2 Novice Stakes. The second and third from the Wood Ditton are here in the shape of William Haggas’s Kathab and Andrew Balding’s New Business. They were both making their racecourse debuts that day when finishing 3L and 4 1/2L respectively behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger at Newmarket and we should obviously be keeping an eye on how Passenger does in the Dante Stakes on Thursday afternoon to see whether there’s a form boost. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of promising colts in Mostabshir who was last seen when running 5th in the Craven Stakes, beaten 7 3/4L and was put in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot recently. Two things against him here is the 6lb penalty he has to shoulder for a Kempton win last November and the fact that Jim Crowley appears to have chosen Kathab over him as they both race in the blue and white Shadwell Stud colours although William Buick is hardly a downgrade in jockeys. The other Gosden runner is Ziryab who showed some promise at Yarmouth on his debut. I’ll take William Haggas’s Kathab to confirm Wood Ditton form with New Business and beat his owners stable mate Mostabshir.   KATHAB 1 point win @ 2/1 William Hill   All odds were accurate at time of writing.  
  22. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Villa Chris in Racing Chat - Friday 19th May   
    The final day of three of the Dante York meeting with the feature race The Yorkshire Cup run at 15:35. We have five races there and a class 4 20 runner handicap from Newbury. Good ground all round with drying conditions. Here are my free horse racing tips for the days terrestrial action.   York 13:50 The 5F Marygate Fillies Stakes is a listed race for two year old fillies and kicks proceedings off today. Dominic Ffrench-Davis is having his best ever season with Amo Racing running from his Lambourn stables and I was most impressed with his 145,000 guineas yearling Persian Dreamer who ran out a clear cut winner at Newmarket on her debut 30 days ago and it will take a good one to beat her today. If there is one to bustle her up it may be the Karl Burke trained juvenile Got To Love A Grey who was also visually very impressive when scooting clear of her field at Nottingham on soft ground in April. The race can be fought out by the pair with definite preference for Persian Dreamer. Karl Burke also saddles Dorothy Lawrence with Ryan Moore on board but it will be a surprise if she can turn the tables on Persian Dreamer as she was 3 1/4L behind that one on her debut. Rod Millman has a good squad of two year olds this season and his Beenham looked good in winning at Goodwood last time and shouldn’t disgrace herself but for me this is all about Amo Racing’s Persian Dreamer.   PERSIAN DREAMER 2 points win @ 6/4   Newbury 14:05 A twenty runner class 3 handicap for four year olds and upwards rated 0-88 is up next from Newbury. The key form race here is the class 4 handicap run over course and distance on soft ground in April where Harry Eustace’s Mustazeed came late to beat John Flint’s Time Interval by 3/4L with James Fanshawe’s Tuxedo Junction 1 1/2L back in third and now 6lb better off. That was an eye catching run from the latter who had been off 183 days and his first run since being gelded. I fully expect Tuexdo Junction to turn the tables on the two that finished ahead of him that day as the drying ground is more likely to be in his favour than the other two mudlarks. Well drawn in stall 6 he looks worth an each way bet with Danny Muscutt doing the steering. Two to watch carefully in the market are the Ian Williams trained Tribal Wisdom who’s joined Williams from the Godolphin operation at a cost of £35,000 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Premiere Ligne has joined his shrewd stable from France for £26,000 having won twice in his native company. There’s plenty of dead wood in the race and it’s Tuxedo Junction for me.   TUXEDO JUNCTION 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345   York 14:25 Ten promising fillies line up for the listed 1M Oaks Farms Stables Fillies’ Stakes. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Lady looked smart when winning a Newmarket 1M maiden at the Craven meeting by just under 4L and should be thereabouts although it’s rather surprising that she wasn’t entered for any Royal Ascot races notably the Coronation Stakes which six of her opponents were entered for recently. As big as 9/2 in the week the value has evaporated from her now. John and Thady Gosden unleash their impressive Ascot winner from 16 days ago and the Kingman filly looked good that day and is another to consider along with the Sir Michael Stoute contender Stormy Sea who is a half sister to the smart Bay Bridge and races in the same colours as her illustrious half brother. She took a Haydock maiden easily three weeks ago and is another who can run well although again it’s surprising that she has no Royal Ascot entries. Juliet Sierra has it to do with a penalty for last year’s Group 3 Salisbury victory whilst William Haggas saddles two improvers in Newmarket winner from last October Orchid Bloom and Shadwell owned Fakhama who won on her debut at Newbury and has been given the Coronation Stakes entry. The Irish runner trained by Jessie Harrington Sounds Of Heaven has some fancy future entries on both sides of the Irish Sea and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly with her Leopardstown maiden win from last October working out well (the runner up that day Boogie Woogie was 6th in the French 1000 last weekend). This is a very informative fillies race that will most certainly be worth following with many holding chances. I’ll take the Stoute filly Stormy Sea under Ryan Moore to score to small stakes.   STORMY SEA 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   York 15:00 The class 2 Knights Solicitors Handicap is run over 1m 2 1/2F and is for four year olds and upwards with a field of 13 going to post. It’s certainly not the strongest York handicap I’ve seen and my fancy is the Richard Fahey trained Spirit Dancer who is making his seasonal re-appearance here. He’s always run well at this track with his form figures here reading 54412 and if ready to go today can take this competitive handicap. A couple of interesting runners are the William Haggas trained Aramaic who we haven’t seen on a racecourse since September 2021 having been gelded in the interim. The market will no doubt tell us if he’s expected to figure today. The other horse of interest is the Andrew Balding trained, Qatar Racing owned Nobel who is making his handicap debut following wind surgery and being off for 201 days. As with the aforementioned Aramaic a market watch is essential. James Ferguson saddles an interesting runner in Diderot who has shown little in three turf starts but has plenty of all weather form and races today off a 7lb lower mark than his all weather mark. David O’Meara loves a winner at York and he saddles Eeetee who is up 4lb for winning at Haydock three weeks ago whilst top weight Masekela trained by Andrew Balding is taking a drop in class in his first handicap. A tough race but if straight enough it’s Spirit Dancer for me.   SPIRIT DANCER 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:35 The Yorkshire Cup, a Group 2 race run over 14F, has a different feel to it this year with no Stradivarius who won it on three of the last four years but we still have seven staying horses. The recent key piece of form is the Dubai Gold Cup run over 2M at Meydan 55 days ago where Aidan O’Brien’s globe trotting Broome came late and fast to collar Charlie Appleby’s Siskany on the line. There was a neck between the pair and dropping back to 14F should suit the pair of them so they are hard to split. Behind them and seemingly held that day were Get Shirty and Giavellotto whilst Quickthorn was 7 1/2L back in 7th and it surprises me that Hughie Morrison’s six year old is ahead of Broome and Siskany in the betting today. Roger Varian brings last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov here but he is penalised 5lb and this is his first run of the season which is geared around a go at the Ascot Gold Cup in three weeks time. He may just need this run and preference is for the Godolphin runner Siskany under William Buick who is the highest rated horse in the race (by a pound from Broome).   SISKANY 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   York 16:10 Just seven have declared for this interesting 1M class 2 Novice Stakes. The second and third from the Wood Ditton are here in the shape of William Haggas’s Kathab and Andrew Balding’s New Business. They were both making their racecourse debuts that day when finishing 3L and 4 1/2L respectively behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger at Newmarket and we should obviously be keeping an eye on how Passenger does in the Dante Stakes on Thursday afternoon to see whether there’s a form boost. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of promising colts in Mostabshir who was last seen when running 5th in the Craven Stakes, beaten 7 3/4L and was put in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot recently. Two things against him here is the 6lb penalty he has to shoulder for a Kempton win last November and the fact that Jim Crowley appears to have chosen Kathab over him as they both race in the blue and white Shadwell Stud colours although William Buick is hardly a downgrade in jockeys. The other Gosden runner is Ziryab who showed some promise at Yarmouth on his debut. I’ll take William Haggas’s Kathab to confirm Wood Ditton form with New Business and beat his owners stable mate Mostabshir.   KATHAB 1 point win @ 2/1 William Hill   All odds were accurate at time of writing.  
  23. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from BBBC in Racing Chat- Thursday 18th May   
    Day 2 of York’s Dante meeting with the feature race the Dante Stakes due to be off at 15.35. The ITV cameras are also showing a 2 year old conditions race from Salisbury. The ground is drying at both tracks with good at York and slightly slower at good to soft at Salisbury.   York 13:50 The days action starts with a 14 runner 5F 4 year olds and upwards class 2 handicap. Tim Easterby’s Copper Knight has won two of the last three renewals of this race (he was 8th last year) and must have claims although he’s not getting any younger at 9 years of age. John Butler’s Designer won over course and distance at the Ebor meeting last August and comes into the equation having had a run already this season but is 10lb higher now than that win and may need to come down the handicap a bit before visiting the winners enclosure again. Roger Teal’s Whenthedealisdone ran well enough at Goodwood a fortnight ago to suggest he can play a part in the finish especially with William Buick booked. Karl Burke’s Korker is my idea of the winner though. A winner of a three year old only 5F handicap at this meeting last year, he kept good company after without winning and a down the field run in a Group 3 at Newmarket on possibly unsuitable soft ground 12 days ago prompted a further 2lb drop in the weights putting him just 5lb higher than last year’s 2 1/2L success. He has been slowly away before so that’s something to bear in mind. Burke has his string in fine form and with his regular pilot Clifford Lee on board can run well each way.   KORKER 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Salisbury 14:05 Off to Wiltshire for a 5F two year old fillies conditions stakes contest featuring two penalised winners. The William Haggas trained Relief Rally won well at Windsor on her debut and incurs a 4lb penalty here. That form has been boosted since by the 8L fifth winning since by 5L and she should go well. Eve Johnson Houghton appears to have a good bunch of juveniles this season and saddles easy Bath winner Juniper Berries. That form is beginning to work out very well with the 3rd and 4th (by 5L) both winning since. She is only penalised 2lb for that victory and has to be the pick here en route to Royal Ascot if all goes well. A market watch must be kept on the two unraced fillies from the more than capable yards of Ralph Beckett and Clive Cox who both receive an unraced allowance of 3lb. The other pair raced against each other over course and distance a fortnight with Rod Millman’s Chinese Knot running well to finish third and is not out of this. With her form working out well it has to be Juniper Berries for me though.   JUNIPER BERRIES 2 points win @ 6/5 BetVictor   York 14:25 The Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Stakes is up next. A Group 2 contest for 4 year old fillies and mares only run over 1M 2 1/2F of the Knavesmire has attracted a field of eight. Clear favourite and officially 6lb and more ahead of her rivals is the John and Thady Gosden trained Free Wind, who looked a progressive mare last season when blitzing her opponents on her only run in the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock in July on soft ground. She has good winning Group form on fast ground as well so the drying ground shouldn’t be an issue for her. She has however not been seen since that impressive win and at a rather skinny price it may pay to look for something each way against her as long as the dead eight all run. The one that interests me is the Richard Hannon trained, Sean Levey ridden Aristia who started out in this race last year when finishing runner up to to Lilac Road at 20/1. She finished her season by winning the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville for which she picks up a 3lb penalty today. Each way she looks the value if straight enough (she won first time out as a two year old as well as her good run in this a year ago). Roger Varian has taken charge of the German Oaks winner from last season Toscana Belle who also has picked up a 3lb penalty for that Group 1 victory. Sea Silk Road races for the William Haggas team and had some good form last season though I’m still a bit worried about the form of the Newmarket handler. The most likeliest winner has to be Free Wind but Aristia each way appeals as better value.   ARISTIA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 123   York 15:00 A cracking renewal with a maximum field of twenty assemble for the Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap run over just short of a mile of the Knavesmire. Last year’s one-two Cruyff Turn and Brunch are back to renew battle and on identical terms there’s likely to be little between them again although the former appears to have fared best with the drawn in stall 3. Both are one pound lower than last year. The likely favourite and well found in the market is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Assessment who has plenty going for him beside his price at around the 3/1 mark. He won a one mile all weather handicap at Kempton, his first run since being gelded, last month with a 6lb rise and a nice draw in stall 9 looks the one to beat. Nigel Tinkler’s Isla Kai likes this track and has fallen in the weights although a wide draw in stall 18 is not ideal. Karl Burke’s Eileen Dubh also has claims having won twice over course and distance last season and can run well although he too has to navigate from a high draw in 15. One horse who does appeal to me at a price is Astro King, who it must be said was a bit of an under achiever when trained by Sir Michael Stoute at Newmarket although he did place in the Royal Hunt Cup off of a mark of 98 and behind Cruyff Turn over course and distance off of 102 back in 2021. Things didn’t pan out that well last season although he did finish 4th in the Royal Hunt Cup off of 102 when going off favourite. He’s left Stoute’s now for what appears to be a cheap £36,000 for a horse now rated 99 and joined the husband and wife team of Daniel and Claire Kubler at Lambourn. He’s won first time out twice before so maybe a absence of 215 day is not a bad thing and a plum draw in 4 makes him look even more interesting. A very tough handicap with Assessment the one to beat but no value at the price so I’ll take a chance each way with additional places with Astro King.   ASTRO KING 1 point each way @ 22/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   York 15:35 A fascinating renewal of the meeting’s feature race the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes run over 1M 2 1/2F with a healthy sized field of a dozen three year old colts attempting to put their case forward for the Epsom Derby in two weeks time. James Ferguson’s Canberra Legend is unbeaten in two including at Newmarket in listed company at the Craven meeting. He’s hard to assess but looks smart. In the same ‘could be anything’ bracket is the Sir Michael Stoute runner Passenger who ran away with the Wood Ditton at Newmarket on his only run and represents last years winning trainer and jockey combo of Stoute and Richard Kingscote who won with Desert Crown last year before going on to take the Derby a fortnight later. We have two Irish runners in the Aidan O’Brien trained unbeaten colt Continous under Ryan Moore and the Ballysax winner White Birch trained by John Joseph Murphy and ridden by Shane Foley. The latter would be the preferred of the pair and could be useful. The Godolphin operation have Flying Honours who is only officially rated a pound behind the top rated here who is Andrew Balding’s The Foxes, last seen when runner up in the Craven at Newmarket. Throw in the Gosden’s Epsom Trial winner Epictetus and we have an intriguing contest which should unravel the pecking order for the Epsom Derby. From a punting view the race looks very tough to assess but I was very taken by Passenger’s win at Newmarket and I’ll play to small stakes each way in the hope that Sir Michael Stoute has another potential Derby winner in his care.   PASSENGER 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 16:10 Eleven speedy three year olds line up for this listed 5F British EBF 40th Anniversary Weston Stakes. It has quite an open feel about it with the joint two officially rated both making their seasonal re-appearances. Rocket Rodney was a smart juvenile for George Scott winning twice and placed in Group company including when going down by a neck to Little Big Bear at Royal Ascot. He can be competitive if ready to go after a 259 day layoff along with David Loughnane’s Walbank who reappears following a 295 day absence with a first time tongue tie fitted. Owners Clipper Logistics who love to have winners at York have two here in Karl Burke’s Pillow Talk and Kevin Ryan’s Silent Word. Both are speedy types who could run well. The hard one to assess has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained Hispanic who is officially only 4lb behind the highest rated and with Ryan Moore on top is another potential player. One horse who we know will be fit is the Declan Carroll trained Changeofmind who looked all about speed when beating subsequent winner Tawalla by 3L at Catterick three weeks ago and although this represents a step up in grade could be a bit of each way value here. Ridden by Harrison Shaw he can run well here and in an open contest is a tentative selection.   CHANGEOFMIND 1 point each way 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   All odds are accurate at time of writing.  
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    The Brigadier got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Friday 19th May   
    The final day of three of the Dante York meeting with the feature race The Yorkshire Cup run at 15:35. We have five races there and a class 4 20 runner handicap from Newbury. Good ground all round with drying conditions. Here are my free horse racing tips for the days terrestrial action.   York 13:50 The 5F Marygate Fillies Stakes is a listed race for two year old fillies and kicks proceedings off today. Dominic Ffrench-Davis is having his best ever season with Amo Racing running from his Lambourn stables and I was most impressed with his 145,000 guineas yearling Persian Dreamer who ran out a clear cut winner at Newmarket on her debut 30 days ago and it will take a good one to beat her today. If there is one to bustle her up it may be the Karl Burke trained juvenile Got To Love A Grey who was also visually very impressive when scooting clear of her field at Nottingham on soft ground in April. The race can be fought out by the pair with definite preference for Persian Dreamer. Karl Burke also saddles Dorothy Lawrence with Ryan Moore on board but it will be a surprise if she can turn the tables on Persian Dreamer as she was 3 1/4L behind that one on her debut. Rod Millman has a good squad of two year olds this season and his Beenham looked good in winning at Goodwood last time and shouldn’t disgrace herself but for me this is all about Amo Racing’s Persian Dreamer.   PERSIAN DREAMER 2 points win @ 6/4   Newbury 14:05 A twenty runner class 3 handicap for four year olds and upwards rated 0-88 is up next from Newbury. The key form race here is the class 4 handicap run over course and distance on soft ground in April where Harry Eustace’s Mustazeed came late to beat John Flint’s Time Interval by 3/4L with James Fanshawe’s Tuxedo Junction 1 1/2L back in third and now 6lb better off. That was an eye catching run from the latter who had been off 183 days and his first run since being gelded. I fully expect Tuexdo Junction to turn the tables on the two that finished ahead of him that day as the drying ground is more likely to be in his favour than the other two mudlarks. Well drawn in stall 6 he looks worth an each way bet with Danny Muscutt doing the steering. Two to watch carefully in the market are the Ian Williams trained Tribal Wisdom who’s joined Williams from the Godolphin operation at a cost of £35,000 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Premiere Ligne has joined his shrewd stable from France for £26,000 having won twice in his native company. There’s plenty of dead wood in the race and it’s Tuxedo Junction for me.   TUXEDO JUNCTION 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345   York 14:25 Ten promising fillies line up for the listed 1M Oaks Farms Stables Fillies’ Stakes. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Lady looked smart when winning a Newmarket 1M maiden at the Craven meeting by just under 4L and should be thereabouts although it’s rather surprising that she wasn’t entered for any Royal Ascot races notably the Coronation Stakes which six of her opponents were entered for recently. As big as 9/2 in the week the value has evaporated from her now. John and Thady Gosden unleash their impressive Ascot winner from 16 days ago and the Kingman filly looked good that day and is another to consider along with the Sir Michael Stoute contender Stormy Sea who is a half sister to the smart Bay Bridge and races in the same colours as her illustrious half brother. She took a Haydock maiden easily three weeks ago and is another who can run well although again it’s surprising that she has no Royal Ascot entries. Juliet Sierra has it to do with a penalty for last year’s Group 3 Salisbury victory whilst William Haggas saddles two improvers in Newmarket winner from last October Orchid Bloom and Shadwell owned Fakhama who won on her debut at Newbury and has been given the Coronation Stakes entry. The Irish runner trained by Jessie Harrington Sounds Of Heaven has some fancy future entries on both sides of the Irish Sea and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly with her Leopardstown maiden win from last October working out well (the runner up that day Boogie Woogie was 6th in the French 1000 last weekend). This is a very informative fillies race that will most certainly be worth following with many holding chances. I’ll take the Stoute filly Stormy Sea under Ryan Moore to score to small stakes.   STORMY SEA 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   York 15:00 The class 2 Knights Solicitors Handicap is run over 1m 2 1/2F and is for four year olds and upwards with a field of 13 going to post. It’s certainly not the strongest York handicap I’ve seen and my fancy is the Richard Fahey trained Spirit Dancer who is making his seasonal re-appearance here. He’s always run well at this track with his form figures here reading 54412 and if ready to go today can take this competitive handicap. A couple of interesting runners are the William Haggas trained Aramaic who we haven’t seen on a racecourse since September 2021 having been gelded in the interim. The market will no doubt tell us if he’s expected to figure today. The other horse of interest is the Andrew Balding trained, Qatar Racing owned Nobel who is making his handicap debut following wind surgery and being off for 201 days. As with the aforementioned Aramaic a market watch is essential. James Ferguson saddles an interesting runner in Diderot who has shown little in three turf starts but has plenty of all weather form and races today off a 7lb lower mark than his all weather mark. David O’Meara loves a winner at York and he saddles Eeetee who is up 4lb for winning at Haydock three weeks ago whilst top weight Masekela trained by Andrew Balding is taking a drop in class in his first handicap. A tough race but if straight enough it’s Spirit Dancer for me.   SPIRIT DANCER 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:35 The Yorkshire Cup, a Group 2 race run over 14F, has a different feel to it this year with no Stradivarius who won it on three of the last four years but we still have seven staying horses. The recent key piece of form is the Dubai Gold Cup run over 2M at Meydan 55 days ago where Aidan O’Brien’s globe trotting Broome came late and fast to collar Charlie Appleby’s Siskany on the line. There was a neck between the pair and dropping back to 14F should suit the pair of them so they are hard to split. Behind them and seemingly held that day were Get Shirty and Giavellotto whilst Quickthorn was 7 1/2L back in 7th and it surprises me that Hughie Morrison’s six year old is ahead of Broome and Siskany in the betting today. Roger Varian brings last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov here but he is penalised 5lb and this is his first run of the season which is geared around a go at the Ascot Gold Cup in three weeks time. He may just need this run and preference is for the Godolphin runner Siskany under William Buick who is the highest rated horse in the race (by a pound from Broome).   SISKANY 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   York 16:10 Just seven have declared for this interesting 1M class 2 Novice Stakes. The second and third from the Wood Ditton are here in the shape of William Haggas’s Kathab and Andrew Balding’s New Business. They were both making their racecourse debuts that day when finishing 3L and 4 1/2L respectively behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger at Newmarket and we should obviously be keeping an eye on how Passenger does in the Dante Stakes on Thursday afternoon to see whether there’s a form boost. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of promising colts in Mostabshir who was last seen when running 5th in the Craven Stakes, beaten 7 3/4L and was put in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot recently. Two things against him here is the 6lb penalty he has to shoulder for a Kempton win last November and the fact that Jim Crowley appears to have chosen Kathab over him as they both race in the blue and white Shadwell Stud colours although William Buick is hardly a downgrade in jockeys. The other Gosden runner is Ziryab who showed some promise at Yarmouth on his debut. I’ll take William Haggas’s Kathab to confirm Wood Ditton form with New Business and beat his owners stable mate Mostabshir.   KATHAB 1 point win @ 2/1 William Hill   All odds were accurate at time of writing.  
  25. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Sporting Sam in Racing Chat- Thursday 18th May   
    Nakimushi Hikaru has been well backed at the post he was the horse who finished second of those with collaborative form. So he gets a win bet as well. ( I'll avoid backing three in one race normally but here is an example for Rodger who "asked why so late" as I can act on the market.)
     
    Here is the result
    7.00 KawasakiFull Result
    1st Sanei Goro (JPN) (12) 4/6fav
    2nd Fontaine Park (JPN) (11) 22/1
    3rd Elfina (JPN) (5) 100/1
    OFF 7.02.12 RanTrainer Kenichi TakatsukiJockey Takayuki YanoOwner Owner Of Sanei GoroCSF- ¥26.49
    That my friends is why I'm turning Japanese.
     
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