Racing Chat - Friday 19th May

[The Brigadier]

The final day of three of the Dante York meeting with the feature race The Yorkshire Cup run at 15:35. We have five races there and a class 4 20 runner handicap from Newbury. Good ground all round with drying conditions. Here are my free horse racing tips for the days terrestrial action.

 

York 13:50

The 5F Marygate Fillies Stakes is a listed race for two year old fillies and kicks proceedings off today.

Dominic Ffrench-Davis is having his best ever season with Amo Racing running from his Lambourn stables and I was most impressed with his 145,000 guineas yearling Persian Dreamer who ran out a clear cut winner at Newmarket on her debut 30 days ago and it will take a good one to beat her today.

If there is one to bustle her up it may be the Karl Burke trained juvenile Got To Love A Grey who was also visually very impressive when scooting clear of her field at Nottingham on soft ground in April. The race can be fought out by the pair with definite preference for Persian Dreamer.

Karl Burke also saddles Dorothy Lawrence with Ryan Moore on board but it will be a surprise if she can turn the tables on Persian Dreamer as she was 3 1/4L behind that one on her debut. Rod Millman has a good squad of two year olds this season and his Beenham looked good in winning at Goodwood last time and shouldn’t disgrace herself but for me this is all about Amo Racing’s Persian Dreamer.

 

PERSIAN DREAMER 2 points win @ 6/4

 

Newbury 14:05

A twenty runner class 3 handicap for four year olds and upwards rated 0-88 is up next from Newbury. The key form race here is the class 4 handicap run over course and distance on soft ground in April where Harry Eustace’s Mustazeed came late to beat John Flint’s Time Interval by 3/4L with James Fanshawe’s Tuxedo Junction 1 1/2L back in third and now 6lb better off. That was an eye catching run from the latter who had been off 183 days and his first run since being gelded. I fully expect Tuexdo Junction to turn the tables on the two that finished ahead of him that day as the drying ground is more likely to be in his favour than the other two mudlarks. Well drawn in stall 6 he looks worth an each way bet with Danny Muscutt doing the steering.

Two to watch carefully in the market are the Ian Williams trained Tribal Wisdom who’s joined Williams from the Godolphin operation at a cost of £35,000 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Premiere Ligne has joined his shrewd stable from France for £26,000 having won twice in his native company.

There’s plenty of dead wood in the race and it’s Tuxedo Junction for me.

 

TUXEDO JUNCTION 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

York 14:25

Ten promising fillies line up for the listed 1M Oaks Farms Stables Fillies’ Stakes. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Lady looked smart when winning a Newmarket 1M maiden at the Craven meeting by just under 4L and should be thereabouts although it’s rather surprising that she wasn’t entered for any Royal Ascot races notably the Coronation Stakes which six of her opponents were entered for recently. As big as 9/2 in the week the value has evaporated from her now.

John and Thady Gosden unleash their impressive Ascot winner from 16 days ago and the Kingman filly looked good that day and is another to consider along with the Sir Michael Stoute contender Stormy Sea who is a half sister to the smart Bay Bridge and races in the same colours as her illustrious half brother. She took a Haydock maiden easily three weeks ago and is another who can run well although again it’s surprising that she has no Royal Ascot entries.

Juliet Sierra has it to do with a penalty for last year’s Group 3 Salisbury victory whilst William Haggas saddles two improvers in Newmarket winner from last October Orchid Bloom and Shadwell owned Fakhama who won on her debut at Newbury and has been given the Coronation Stakes entry.

The Irish runner trained by Jessie Harrington Sounds Of Heaven has some fancy future entries on both sides of the Irish Sea and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly with her Leopardstown maiden win from last October working out well (the runner up that day Boogie Woogie was 6th in the French 1000 last weekend).

This is a very informative fillies race that will most certainly be worth following with many holding chances.

I’ll take the Stoute filly Stormy Sea under Ryan Moore to score to small stakes.

 

STORMY SEA 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

York 15:00

The class 2 Knights Solicitors Handicap is run over 1m 2 1/2F and is for four year olds and upwards with a field of 13 going to post. It’s certainly not the strongest York handicap I’ve seen and my fancy is the Richard Fahey trained Spirit Dancer who is making his seasonal re-appearance here. He’s always run well at this track with his form figures here reading 54412 and if ready to go today can take this competitive handicap.

A couple of interesting runners are the William Haggas trained Aramaic who we haven’t seen on a racecourse since September 2021 having been gelded in the interim. The market will no doubt tell us if he’s expected to figure today. The other horse of interest is the Andrew Balding trained, Qatar Racing owned Nobel who is making his handicap debut following wind surgery and being off for 201 days. As with the aforementioned Aramaic a market watch is essential.

James Ferguson saddles an interesting runner in Diderot who has shown little in three turf starts but has plenty of all weather form and races today off a 7lb lower mark than his all weather mark.

David O’Meara loves a winner at York and he saddles Eeetee who is up 4lb for winning at Haydock three weeks ago whilst top weight Masekela trained by Andrew Balding is taking a drop in class in his first handicap.

A tough race but if straight enough it’s Spirit Dancer for me.

 

SPIRIT DANCER 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 15:35

The Yorkshire Cup, a Group 2 race run over 14F, has a different feel to it this year with no Stradivarius who won it on three of the last four years but we still have seven staying horses. The recent key piece of form is the Dubai Gold Cup run over 2M at Meydan 55 days ago where Aidan O’Brien’s globe trotting Broome came late and fast to collar Charlie Appleby’s Siskany on the line. There was a neck between the pair and dropping back to 14F should suit the pair of them so they are hard to split. Behind them and seemingly held that day were Get Shirty and Giavellotto whilst Quickthorn was 7 1/2L back in 7th and it surprises me that Hughie Morrison’s six year old is ahead of Broome and Siskany in the betting today.

Roger Varian brings last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov here but he is penalised 5lb and this is his first run of the season which is geared around a go at the Ascot Gold Cup in three weeks time. He may just need this run and preference is for the Godolphin runner Siskany under William Buick who is the highest rated horse in the race (by a pound from Broome).

 

SISKANY 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365

 

York 16:10

Just seven have declared for this interesting 1M class 2 Novice Stakes. The second and third from the Wood Ditton are here in the shape of William Haggas’s Kathab and Andrew Balding’s New Business. They were both making their racecourse debuts that day when finishing 3L and 4 1/2L respectively behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger at Newmarket and we should obviously be keeping an eye on how Passenger does in the Dante Stakes on Thursday afternoon to see whether there’s a form boost.

John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of promising colts in Mostabshir who was last seen when running 5th in the Craven Stakes, beaten 7 3/4L and was put in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot recently. Two things against him here is the 6lb penalty he has to shoulder for a Kempton win last November and the fact that Jim Crowley appears to have chosen Kathab over him as they both race in the blue and white Shadwell Stud colours although William Buick is hardly a downgrade in jockeys.

The other Gosden runner is Ziryab who showed some promise at Yarmouth on his debut.

I’ll take William Haggas’s Kathab to confirm Wood Ditton form with New Business and beat his owners stable mate Mostabshir.

 

KATHAB 1 point win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

All odds were accurate at time of writing.

 

[kensland]

Lucky 15.

2.15. Newm. Davideo          5/1           1st 

2.40. Newb.  Battle Charge     3/1        unpl

4.20. Newb.  Nothing to Sea        11/2       7/1        1st 

4.45. York.   Tiempo Star             7/2

stk.7.50.     rtn. 721. 37

Good luck all. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by kensland

[richard-westwood]

445 york 

It just takes time 8.5  9/2 

No nay nicki   8.3 13.5 

Ascot adventure  8.3  12.5 

10pt win top rated ...5pt wins other 2 .....forecasts all 3 

[Villa Chris]

Aintree 5.55 The Big Bite 4/1

Aintree 7.05 Hang In There 11/4 2nd 

Aintree 7.40 Kinondu Kiwetu 11/4 won 

In the last race Empire De Mauld slightly comes out on top of ratings but has not raced for over a year so I’ll go with race fit Kinondu 

5 points win each 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Villa Chris

[Darran]

Last race at Aintree is a point-to-point bumper for horses that have run in British points. I have gone through every runner.

 

Achtung Baby - Was 3^rd in a point bumper at Bangor in March when after being held up in last for half the trip he then moved forward and was 2^nd with a couple of furlongs left before finishing 3rd. He was 4L behind Thank You Ma'am who finished 3^rd in the Exeter contest. That would suggest to me that he won't be good enough for this and he showed little in a 2m4f maiden over Easter when pulling up.

 

Cadell - His owner was training him for his two point wins in March and April both at Overton. Comments after the race mention that he has been very slow to come to hand and he has shown that in both his races so far. In his Maiden win he was outpaced before finishing strongly to win. The 2^nd has done nothing at all for the form since and sadly had to be put down last time, but the 3^rd was Baron Briggs who you may remember ran in the Buccleuch Cup at Kelso last month and showed he had an engine, but jumped terribly and he finished 3rd. He only had one rival last time and did look in trouble turning for home, but he won easy in the end and took some pulling up. That rival though was pulled up in the Heart Of All England at Hexham last week so it doesn't really tell us much about how good he actually is. I suspect he is good enough to win this, but given his greeness so far you just have to wonder if in a bigger field over a shorter trip if he might get going when it is too late.

 

Douglas Longbottom - Had 1 run in a Larkhill bumper last year when a well beaten 5th, but has clearly needed time as he was off for a year until finishing 3^rd at Badbury Rings. He was really well backed that day though from 10/1 into 2/1F so obviously he was expected to go better. That was over 3m and he dropped back to 2m4f when he finished 3^rd again the following month. He didn't look a natural over fences in that race, but it was clear he had an engine. Easter Monday he finally broke the maiden tag at Cothelstone and again he didn't jump efficiently, but he beat the even money favourite by an easy 10L in the end. This race was mentioned as the target after that win and I do get the feeling he will be seen to better effect without any fences in the way at the moment, so for me he is a possible winner.

 

Fly Awhile Johnny - Has shown very little to date and would be a shock winner.

 

Grandpa's Folly - Was a promising 2^nd when making his debut in a point bumper at Brafield in March when a 3L 2^nd to Roseburg. He stayed on nicely that day, but he didn't build on that when going over fences in a 2m4f maiden at Dingley 3 weeks ago. Maybe bumpers will be more his thing and if he was coming here on the back of the debut effort, he'd be a shorter price.

 

It's Unbelievable - Was a 20L 4^th in debut at Alnwick and then showed wayward tendencies when a 15L 2^nd to Take It Upstairs at Mosshouses. He went hung badly round the bend out of the straight and you do wonder if he might do the same tonight. It was a fair effort, but the winner quickened away from him very nicely in the closing stages and even under these very different conditions (Mosshouses is a testing track and the ground was testing as well) I can't see the form being reversed.

 

Supreme Johnson - Was a tailed off 7^th at Exeter and in 3 runs since over 3m he has pulled up twice and 3^rd of 4 in between those two runs. Tongue-tie goes on for the first time but it would need to work a miracle for me.

 

Wottinger - Looks a bit short in the betting to me based on what he's done so far. Ran wide at a bend on debut in a bumper at Alnwick in January and ended up finishing 3rd. Has been 2^nd in 2 2m4f maidens since, both last month, but he looked in need of further not shorter and others have shown better form so far.

 

Penniless - Won her first 2 starts over here at Charing and Parham, but don't think either were strong races and the 2^nd ran out at 2 out in the latter win and it would have been a good race between the 2. The winning time that day was very slow and she wasn't great at High Easter last time. I suspect she wont be good enough.

 

Roseburg - Was a well beaten 3^rd behind Clover All Over who did win the Exeter contest and she looked like she would benefit form the run which is exactly what happened when she won at Brafield in March. Her jockey said she has a high cruising speed and that he was expecting them to get to him, but she found more again. Her trainer expects her to keep improving and will be an even better horse next year, but she might well land this first.

 

Delilah Bucks - Was promoted to 3^rd on debut at Sandon over Easter and given there were 4 horses separated by a length it is hard to know what the form is worth. The winning time was 7 seconds slower than the first division though and all 4 horses were carrying 13lbs less. Maybe she wasn't able to show her true ability because of that, but for me the percentage call is to oppose.

 

Hazels Delight - Won a 2m4f mares maiden in comfortable fashion at Cothelstone in March, but it wasn't a strong contest despite the big field and she was given a pretty low rating on the back of it. The time was slow as well. You always have to respect a young horse from the Poste yard, but I prefer others to win this.

 

Saunton Surf - Only had 3 rivals to beat on debut at Maisemore at the end of March but she did so in dominate fashion. Hard to know what she beat in that bumper, but the 3^rd had finished a good 2^nd on debut so that adds a little bit of substance to the form. Clearly the trainer knows what he's doing and I did like the way she quickened away from them. Looks a leading contender.

 

Take It Upstairs - Got hampered at about half way at Alnwick on debut and then still looked green in the finish when finishing 2nd. They pulled a long way clear of the 3^rd and then as mentioned above she quickened away in really nice style to easily beat It's Unbelievable at Mosshouses. On balance I think it was probably the most impressive performance I saw whilst looking at the videos, but this will be a very different test as both those tracks are undulating and have stiff climbs.

 

Verdict - I think this could be a decent renewal of this race and there could be a few horses worth following going forwards. Take It Upstairs, Saunton Surf, Roseburg, Douglas Longbottom and Cadell look the ones to concentrate on for me. Cadell could win, but he's priced up on connections rather than what he's actually achieved so I'm happy to look elsewhere. As I say just above I did think Take It Upstairs put in the most impressive performance and whilst this will be a different test I have to have her covered. I think Douglas Longbottom is the one that is really over priced at double figure odds as he has clearly been showing plenty at home given the way he has been backed in points. The way he jumps fences though is hindering him at the moment and this test could be much more suitable at this stage of his career. Roseburg is next on the list as she looks progressive and will continue to improve with experience. Saunton Surf just misses out as I think she is about the right price now.

 

Take It Upstairs 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 9/2)

Douglas Longbottom 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365  (take up to 9/1)

Roseburg 0.5pts e/w @10/1 with most bookies including Bet365 to 4 places (Hills are 11/1 for 3 places take up to 7/1)

[kensland]

Patent. 

2.25. York.  Juliet Sierra     11/1        unpl

   unpl

4.55. Newb.  Lucky Fifteen        3/1    3rd

stk 3.50      rtn 451.50.

Good luck all. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by kensland

[fd1972uk]

205 mustazaad

300 noble

335 siskany

 

My lot for today, first two on mb offers

 

Good luck all

[yossa6133]

Gaius 5:20 Aintree (7/2 bet365). Plenty of promise in 2 hurdles run on ground softer than ideal, bit of a break and better ground should help. Gets almost a stone from the odds on fav who did well to win last time but penalty should make it tough.

 

Fav fairly weak in the market but won very easily.

Edited May 19, 2023 by yossa6133

[Sporting Sam]

 

Newbury 1.30

Trais Fluors

Each way 

 

Achieved little since arriving in England, but did win off a mark of 92 in a class two.

Connections know the key to this one and running over less than a mile not one of them.

High quality juvenile in France easily beat call the wind group winner in a listed race and won or placed plenty of times in 15 runs for Andre Fabre. Big sales price as a yearling 370k then a knock down each subsequent sale.

Well backed beaten favourite over shorter on heavy ground at Doncaster.

Headgear on now. Frustrating sort and may not figure in this company, but has a run hidden inside somewhere.....

Edited May 19, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Newbury 2.05

Wind your neck in.

Sun king

Both each way

It hasn't sun king that I just missed a David Evans winner in the first. Good to get the third though.

George Boughey sends five runners up from Suffolk. This ex Aidan O'Brien runner was placed at Royal Ascot last year and both his and Evan's runner look set for a good summer.

Sun king is  the top weight and it will be interesting to see if there is any kickback from the penalty carrying bottom weight who goes up three grades.

Edited May 19, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Newmarket 2.50

 Dual Identity

Simply Sondheim

Both win

Di up 13 from win at Sandown but not far off mark of third in Cambridgeshire.

According to the stats which horses don't race on ss is unbeaten in these types of races.. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Newbury 3.15

Oliver Show

Each way

Very green on debut on the all weather, is better than he has shown.

Gets weight from the winners and likely to go better here.

[Sporting Sam]

Downpatrick 7.15

Nevermindstranger

Each way

Another hunter chase and this one trained by derrek Christie dead heated in a point to point last time out.

 

[Villa Chris]

On 5/18/2023 at 9:38 PM, Villa Chris said:

Aintree 5.55 The Big Bite 4/1

Aintree 7.05 Hang In There 11/4 2nd 

Aintree 7.40 Kinondu Kiwetu 11/4 won 

In the last race Empire De Mauld slightly comes out on top of ratings but has not raced for over a year so I’ll go with race fit Kinondu 

5 points win each 

 

 

One winner 3.75 points profit 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 -3.57