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Zilzalian
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Posts
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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440 leop Mrs Grimley 50/1 bet365
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3 hours ago, Budgie 65 said:
It wasn't aimed at you just the arrogance of some equaliser asks a question gets hammered what can he do he trying to forget it then a stupid comment sets him off it set me off sorry it is getting childish lol I have a mental age of 13 and 60000 hrs to live
If you re-read the thread he didn't get hammered, what he got were responses to his points and most were sympathetic to his situation but simply didn't agree with him on this issue. some at least put their reasons forward for why they didn't agree with him. surely that is useful in any debate. and i would suggest a consensus was reached and that was, that it is the bet and not the horse that counts for the competitions. okay so it wasn't what he wanted to hear (and i did sympathise) but at least they were honest opinions.
- The Equaliser, Xcout and MCLARKE
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2:55 Sandown The Cob 33/1 bet365
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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Ok Mate. Just look at the official reported results. The racing rules apply in this country and around the world. Both horses finished first. Both were winners!!!!!!!
But. You keep ignoring the fact that the "bet" was a loser and for the competition it is the bet that applies not the horse IHO.
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
I can't quite follow the logic of that. Internetmails could get 28 placed horse at 66/1 and wouldn't stand a chance of winning the most winners comp.
I feel that the whole administration team at Punters Lounge would have to think very carefully about imposing a rule that states that in the case of a dead-heat a person who's bet shows a negative value should have the horse treated as a loser.
Think about it. Had someone else chosen the other winning horse in my race then, according to @MCLARKEthat would have been deemed to be a winner and my horse a loser. You will not find one racing authority in the UK or indeed around the world that will support the idea that there is a winner and a loser in a dead-heat race where there are only two runners!!
I think that it was right to record the negative value of my bet and not right to not record it as a loser.
I do have a lot of respect for Michael @MCLARKE he seems to shrug off a losing bet of £100 at odds of 1/3 and has great financial and spreadsheet skills. However, when I feel that he has said something wrong then I feel entitled to voice my opinion.
Well as it stands a placed horse/bet in profit is classed as a winner so by your logic a 9/4 horse placed ew coming placed would also be a winner like, i said earlier as it stands the table headings are bet, won, lost. and not horse, won, lost. like i say i do understand your angst and the reasons for it but sometimes we just have to bite our lip, kick the cat and accept the situation. One thing for sure is that it is not something to fall out with anyone over.
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
I wondered when you would stick your oar in. There are 77 PL members in the current table above for February so far so how you can have the audacity to say that everybody else on here says it doesn't count as a winner is beyond me when only four members liked your comment. Check the result. The horse has officially finished FIRST. IT IS A WINNER. This is a most winners competition. There is nothing in the rules that states a dead-heat winner shall be deemed a loser. Unless and until this is specifically stated in the rules I stand by my request to @MCLARKEto have my selection be treated as a winner. I say what I like and like what I bloody well say!!.......Georgie Whtbread
The only problem i see with treating it as a winning horse and not a losing bet, and i do get it but if for the rest of the month internetmails plays short price favs ew by the same logic- a place must also be classed as a winner and no doubt because he already has a 66/1 (easily passing the 10+ point requirement) winner the chances are he would waltz in on the most winners comp.
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328 Deauville Zygfryd 12/1 bet365
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11:20 Cagnes-Sur-Mer Quian 10/1 bet365
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13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Absolutely fascinating. As I was bored I thought I would look at this race using the Timeform & RPR top two ratings. I came up with Good Humour, Enduring, George Morland and Love Dreams. It was close with the last one and Epsom Faithful but I opted for Love Dreams as its RPR was 1 point ahead of Epsom Faithful. I wonder if @Wildgardenhas a view on this?
Came up with Global Acclaim at 12/1 (now 8/1) in this race so I napped it, so forgive me when I say sod off with your ratings. ??
- The Equaliser and MCLARKE
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1 hour ago, In Play Race Reader said:
Lots of the winning P/Ls don’t look correct
Agreed
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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Sorry, I don't recall this. To me it's a bit like asking the owners of the winning horses just to share second place prize money. Absolutely bonkers. When is a winning horse a loser; when it dead heats. Crazy.
Just as with the KO cup nothing has been done to amend the rules to say if x number of punters can't get on because of technical problems then the comp is re-run again and in this instance there is nothing in the rules to say that a horse that dead-heats is deemed to be a loser.
This all seems to me to be unfair once again in my opinion
Ew placed only profit is classed as a winner, so if i backed every day at say 2/1 or even money ew then by your situation (i wont say argument) my places would have to be classed as winners which would make the "most winners" competition farcical (if not for the +10 rule), I can see your frustration but in effect you have had a winner in name only not a financial winner and the whole point of betting is presumably to make money your bet actually lost you money. Just my opinion based on what's happened. If you consider the headings its BETS - WON- LOST not HORSES-WON-LOST is probably the best way to look at it.
As for the rerun of the KO cup i would hate to win that comp knowing my opponent couldn't get on through tech difficulties, it was/is not ideal but the rerun was a reasonable solution. I can't think of a fairer solution to be honest. Baring in mind i think in effect we are all mates on here, i would hate to fall out with someone over a free competitions that cost us nothing but provides us with a bit of sporting fun with a prize.
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5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Yes, I agree that stakes are halved etc and the only reference I can find in the comp rules are about Rule 4 deductions. However, no matter how much the returns are diminished the horse was still a winner albeit it dead-heated. This being so I feel that it should be treated as a winner unless and until the rules have been amended to specifically state that if there is a dead heat then both winners will be declared losers which seems bizarre.
Great 10/1 winner from you today
This is the relevant rule,
it is your stake and not the odds that are changed by a dead heat. Whilst each way bets pay out at a fraction of the odds based on the full stake, dead heat winners pay out at full odds but only a fraction of the stake (with the remaining stake being settled as a losing bet).
Dead Heat Rules | Betting Guides | BettingSites.org.uk
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32 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
@MCLARKEI can't see why this has been treated as a loser when it dead-heated for first place. I can't see anything in the rules to support this. Please advise?
Mmm Tricky one, Im guessing and only guessing the negative number is key given that johnrobertsons is also negative and classed as a loser, a win in this competition the "stake" is not returned causing the negative. Basically its the stakes that are halved. I understand why your querying it though.
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730 Kemp Global Acclaim 12/1 bet365
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235 cagnes-sur-mur Moonflight 10/1 bet365
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3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Fascinating stuff, are we going to take the plunge on Thursday or is the cat out of the bag ?
It will be interesting to see what happens to the betting patterns v tissue as regard to the draw, if its out of the bag they (the ones with the advantage) should all contract one would think.
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1:07 cagnes-sur-mur Sherbo 9/1bet365
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3 hours ago, gbettle said:
Did someone mention Southwell changing surface?
Check out this fascinating thread on FlatStats about the change to Tapeta - the machines that work the track are too small and have to work the track twice which makes the mid-stalls surface harder than low or high stalls ?
TL;DR:
"Why is There a Bias?
Possibly because of double compaction. The width of the machines that work the track are not sufficient to do a single pass so the track has to be worked twice - on the left and on the right. This means the middle gets worked twice and at that area the surface is much faster than at low or high.
So why don't jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand. "I remember many years ago when there were only 3 aw tracks that harrowing of the surface even over a relatively short time pushes material to the outsides making it deeper, i cant quite remember what difference this made but i do know it was quite significant on the inside rail (i think stall one at Lingfield was a nightmare whereas stall 2 wasn't), you would think that would apply to the outside rail also but the simple explanation is/was that the horses don't race that far out.
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130 sedge Caius Marcious 16/1 bet365
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705 kemp Ilhabela Fact 33/1 bet365
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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
AW selection
Wolverhampton 6.15
BEGGARMAN 7/5
And that is how jockeys and not their horses lose races, shocking performance from 6 jockeys.
- azzybear and The Equaliser
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42 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Very many thanks for your well thought out and delivered response. I don't like Paul Mulrennan but have indeed missed a winner or two because of being biased towards him. I know that @MCLARKEhas in the past has mentioned issues with Hollie Doyle and women jockeys in a finish but she seems to be in great form at present. You are right of course, we should all be focused on the horse's ability itself and not be prejudiced about the jockey. Was Jamie Spencer the jockey who always rides his horses from behind no matter what the instructions are? Obviously a jockey has to produce a horse to win a race at the right time. I do wonder when I watch the races how a jockey can judge the right sort of pace to run his horse at over varying distance races when, he is behind a horse that has say gone ten lengths clear of the rest of the field. It would be great to know which jockeys are the best judges of pace and over which distances? I have long wanted to get hold of stats like this. In this day and age when they show a football or tennis match on TV and the presenters can seemingly produce instant figures on how a player is performing right there and then I don't see why someone cannot produce very useful statistics on jockeys and trainers that would help us punters in finding winners
Fallon was brilliant at timing a race as was Philip Robinson who was probably one of the most underrated jockeys ever, Fallon learnt in the USA where pace and timing is considered everything. Personally i think you can get so bogged down in stats (and i love them) that you can miss the obvious, all i want to know is how fast can this horse go (speed figures) and will it get the trip in this ground. for handicaps you can pretty much forget stats, if the trainer wants the horses weight down it wont win, if they want weight up they will do everything to get it to win. Far too much room for "fiddling" with handicaps. "well in" "back to its winning mark" "laid out for this" "targeted this race" "needs a few to come out to get in" all results of fiddling. Theoretically we should stick to pattern races and leave handicaps well alone but we like to play and we sometimes fool ourselves into believing we know enough to back in them when we usually don't. I would say my best tool other than speed figures is my memory and my notebook if i see something and it may only be an instinct i note it. i try not to watch the horse i have backed in a race in favour of watching the race itself a great example of this was i was watching a derby once many years ago and Hughie Morrison had a horse in it (big price outsider) called ???? i instantly made a note of it and its next run was R Ascot and it won at 25/1 then it went to France 2 weeks later and won at 10/1 it was then sold abroad never to be seen or win again. Ping!!!! it was called Pisco Sour.
- The Equaliser, MCLARKE and Wildgarden
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Racing Chat - Sunday 6th February
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Sat here wondering how many of these odds on and shorties are going to get beat and if so what opportunities there are. a smart man would leave well alone, i wish i was a smart man.