Foo_Fighter

Yeah just came to state here what a great final it was in Dubai. A bit heartbroken Rybakina (and not just because I bet on her) -- she played so bloody well for a 20-year-old against probably the best "fighter" on tour at the moment. Some completely amazing shots and huge "big match temperament" shown by Rybakina to take the 3rd set to a TB. This young lady is definitely going to be a future grand slam winner. What an absolute star!

Reilly Opelka to beat Milos Raonic @2.62 bet365
I think 2.62 is very generous for any match where two big hitters are facing each other so I'm gonna take it and say thanks to the bookmakers. 
Ugo Humbert to beat Y. Nishioka @1.72 bet365
The French fella is superior to his opponent on almost every aspect of the game. He's also significantly taller and heavier than Nishioka. I think he has the upper hand on this encounter regardless of how good the Japanese might be on the other side of the court. I like Ugo's chances here. 
Good luck. ? 
 

Elena Rybakina to beat Petra Martic at 1.71 with Parions Sport
It will be the 1st meeting between these 2 players. Despite the fact that Martic is playing pretty well in this tournament, I don't see how she can beat Rybakina here. Indeed, the Kazakh is on fire since the beginning of the year and could already reach her 4th final of 2020. Neither the defeat against Bertens for the title in Saint Petersburg, nor the accumulated tiredness seem to disturb the young prodigy in Dubai . She eliminated Kenin, Siniakova then Pliskova by losing only 1 set against the American during her 1st match. I watched her match against the Czech 2nd seed, she seemed very serene and sure of her tennis despite her young age. I was very pleased with the composure she showed to save 9 break points. She is solid in difficult moments and knows how to show her best moves to get by, thanks in particular to her powerful serve which continues to improve over the tournament, 80% of success on her 1st serve and 11 aces against Pliskova.

Jabeur has just been more and more solid. Just a little more consistency and better serve and she might climb to top 20. I would have never thought she could be capable of that to be honnest. 
 
Small multi for tonight:
Karolina Pliskova to win, Anett Kontaveit to win @ 2.21 bet365
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I agree with Darko re Pliskova vs Rybakina, Rybakina has been excellent but not good enough yet to trouble elite players.
Last week she was just obliterated by Bertens. Her return game is just not good enough yet to trouble big servers. With that in mind, I think it will be extremely unlikely for her to find enough break points to trouble Pliskova.
I do feel that a game is coming where she will be able to create something against better players, which is why I am only taking a straight win.
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I have backed Martic in the last two rounds and I haven't found the wins as easy as the score reflects. Especially considering that Hsieh has been transparent this season, and strycova won an extremely tight match vs a 50% Anisimova
Martic had to face many break points (over 1.33 BP faced per game in average so far) against these not in form/lower players. A better player will punish her - no matter how good her serve can be.
Not much to say on Kontaveit side. Her win against resurgent Pavlyuencha was by no mean an easy win. But I believe this is more of a testimony to current Pavlyuencha level than anything else. Kontaveit service has been pretty solid.
 

Very frustrating… Kudermetova and Jabeur could have won (especially Jabeur, who was serving for the match and then she had 1 MP in the TB…). Probably I should have bet the set handicap (or the games handicap) that both were paid at almost 2.00 and now I could have 2 bets won and not 2 bets lost…
Karolina Pliskova to win the WTA Dubai at 4.25 with 888
I really like how she played in the first round. She has never won a GS title but she’s always a potential winner for this kind of tournaments. She won in her first tournament of 2020 (Adelaide), beating some very good players (Tomjlanovic, Riske, Osaka and Keys). I like the draw she has. Tomorrow she will play against Rybakina. Rybakina is in form but I think Pliskova is too much for her. We have seen how Rybakina has been destroyed every time she has faced a big player (against Barty in the AO and Bertens in St Petersburg or even Alexandrova in Shenzhen). In the SF she will play against Martic/Kontaveit. The player I fear the most (for SF) is Martic (her game can trouble Pliskova) but I think Kontaveit can beat her (it would be good for Pliskova). The Final will be against Halep/Sabalenka/Brady/Muguruza. I know the odds look a little bit low but Pliskova will be the favorite player in every single match so still se value on this one.
Karolina Pliskova (-3.5 Games) to beat Elena Rybakina at 1.83 with bet365
The reasons are already explained... Rybakina has been impressive this 2020 but everytime she has faced a big player she has been destroyed (Alexandrova, Barty, Bertens). Pliskova is so much better than her and the surface suits very well with her game. She has destroyed Mladenovic in the first round (6-2, 6-1) and I expect another win in straight sets for this match.
If this couple of bets gone wrong I will take a break for the the rest of this month (I think I have been unlucky with so many matches for the last 10 days...)

Patrik Niklas-Salminen to beat Johannes Haerteis at 1.83 with Pinnacle
In my book, PNS is a player with at least some potential, while Haerteis is Challenger-level at best in all honesty. The recent results, which include PNS' win over the very good Soeda, suggest that there is some substance to the idea, while Haerteis has lost against plenty of much worse players in recent months and struggled against worse played than PNS recently. 1.60 would sound fair to me here.

Emil Ruusuvuori to win at least one set @1.7 interwetten
Well obviously Pospisil is a far more established player than Ruusuvuori in men's tour, but the young Finnish could pull off an upset here. Think the kid's got real potential to become an elite player in the near future. 

Jiri Vesely to beat Brandon Nakashima at 1.75 with Parions Sport
It will be the 1st time between these two players. You have to go back to 2014 to see Vesely participate this ATP 250 in Delray Beach. The Czech failed to pass the 1st round (3-set loss to Baghdatis). Nakashima will play this tournament for the 1st time in his career.
Nakashima, 295th in the world, received an invitation from the organizers. This 18-year-old American is starting to be talked about in the Challengers. He notably managed to beat Harrison and Tomic in Dallas earlier this month, and take a set from Tiafoe in the same tournament. Well, they are indeed 3 players far from their best level, but still. Vesely is the logical favorite to win this meeting. It must be said that he came out of an excellent tournament in Pune (he lifted the trophy) which allowed him to build up confidence.
However, it is important not to underestimate his opponent of the day. Nakashima seems to be very receptive to public support. Playing at home should therefore allow him to play transcended. The guy has a good 1st ball and an aggressive forehand that could tickle Vesely's sometimes feverish backhand when he plays it crossed (Vesely is left-handed). We must also highlight the fact that the American knows how to be regular in trade, which could well crack the Czech more than once (Vesely is indeed led to make a lot of mistakes when he is not in a good day). Now, I think Vesely will manage to make the necessary efforts to get out of this trap. His power will no doubt have a role to play in this meeting. Nakashima can have difficulties when the balls are fast, and the current 72nd should be able to play on that to gain many points. Experience should do the rest.

Radu Albot to beat Jack Sock @1.57 bet365 (ATP 250 Delray Beach Open) 
Nothing much to say here. I just feel that Albot is a much better tennis player than his opponent these days. 
 

Lille vs Marseille
Ligue 1 gives us an opportunity to really test the ELO ratings this week and stretch our legs in the risk-taking stakes. I'm focusing on the highly-anticipated clash between Lille and Marseille that starts at 8pm GMT on Sunday night from the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Both teams are in the hunt for a Champions League place and the outcome in this game could heavily influence where these two sides end up come the final day of the season.
Lille enter this game in 4th place knowing they need a win to avoid risking losing touch with the Champions League places. Head coach Christophe Galtier has seen his team win three league games on the bounce to solidify their position in the Europa League qualification spots but with the likes of Monaco, Montpellier, Strasbourg, and Nice breathing down their necks he will know they can't afford to drop too many points right now. Only PSG have earned more points at home this season than Lille who have only lost 1 league game at home and that was against PSG.
Marseille have looked revitalised this season under Andre Villas-Boas. The iconic club are in 2nd place and looking set to qualify for the Champions League this season in their current form. Only PSG have earned more points on their travels than Marseille this season so they head into this game full of confidence. It's now 13 league games undefeated for the team that could prove to become PSG's biggest rivals over the coming season. That includes being unbeaten for their last 6 away league matches.
I genuinely can't wait for this game tonight and it'll be a real test of both sides' credentials as challengers for the Champions League places. I think this is certainly a game Lille want to win but they're up against a very effective Marseille team. My dilemma is whether to back Marseille to win or settle for the draw. I'm not sure either side will begrudge a point and maybe that's why I have to favour that outcome.
Draw @ 3.30 with Betfair
BTTS @ 2.11 with Marathonbet
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All left-handers lost their matches (Trump, Hawkins, Robertson, Williams, Lisowski, Allen). Impressive. 
I want Gilbert and Wilson to win today! 
PS. David Gilbert reminds me of Viggo Mortensen. 

Good shout with that winner.