The Equaliser

miss tempo 8.20 ew 

But if you find a horse that performs on the going then could be chance for some good priced winners

Harry The Norseman   { N/R }                                        
Prairie Dancer                                                     5 05 Gal/                       1/40th of a pt ew    33/1
Tudor City                                                            5 05 Gal/                       1/40th of a pt ew    18/1
Never Ending Story                                            3 35 Gwd/                     1/40th of a pt win   40/1
Miramis                                                                3 55 Gall//                     1/40th of a pt ew    22/1                   WON
Macanudo                                                            4 10 Gwd/                     1/40th of a pt win   11/1
Gaasyah                                                                5 20 gwd/                      1/40th of a pt ew    22/1
 
 
 
 
P/L     + 166.30pt

My stakes are now going to be at 25% for the rest of Goodwood this ground is nigh on impossible to work with....

Day Three of Glorious Goodwood although with the weather forecast it hardly looks Glorious! Today’s feature race is the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes over 10F for fillies and mares and is run at 15:35. ITV are again showing the first four races from the meeting and here are my thoughts and selections to help us beat the bookies again today.   Goodwood 13:50 A cracking eighteen runner class 2 three year old’s only handicap kicks us off today which will be run over 10F. Current favourite is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Perfuse who has already shown his liking for very soft ground when winning his maiden at Nottingham on officially heavy ground. He was better than his finishing position of fifth when beaten 6L by Desert Hero in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot and will appreciate dropping back to 10F here. With Ryan Moore on board, a favourable draw in stall seven and the ground in his favour he’s the main bet. Its double figure prices all the others with soft ground loving Royal Rhyme likely to run a big race. Kevin Ryan’s Lope De Vega colt is two from two on soft ground including when running out a 5L winner at Newmarket in May. Back on soft ground he can be competitive from stall 2 and appeals each way with additional places. The Richard Fahey trained Have Secret is another with winning soft ground form and at a nice price could be involved in the finish having finished fourth in two of the summers better 3-year-old middle distance handicaps. Others worth a mention are the handicap debutant of William Haggas’s Garden Route but he’s untested on a soft surface whilst the same can be said about Andrew Balding’s Alsakib who’s won his last two races. Andrew Balding also saddles Goldsborough who’s already won here and on heavy ground so on this handicap debutant is an interesting runner at a very big price especially if the ground rides very soft. Perfuse is a strong fancy and is the main play here although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Have Secret from stall one.   PERFUSE 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hill HAVE SECRET 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 14:25 With the defection of a couple here we have ten two year olds going to post here for this 6F Group 2 Richmond Stakes where there is very little previous soft ground form.
Simon & Ed Crisford's runner Vandeek made a remarkable winning debut at Nottingham a fortnight ago when falling out of the stalls, losing some 10 lengths but ran on like a smart horse to win going away by 3/4L at the end. That was on good to soft ground so he may well be less inconvenienced by the ground conditions than most. He looks the one to beat with the Irish runner Unquestionable now a non runner.
The other runner at the head of the market is Clive Cox’s Jasour who ran out a 2L winner of the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago at the July Meeting but has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here and has only run on fast ground (he was pulled out on his debut run at Newmarket in May due to soft ground) so may well struggle on the prevailing ground.
Sketch looked good on his debut twelve days when winning by 5L at Newbury and is another who could be prominent if handing the ground.
It’s Vandeek for me to prove his debut win was no flash in the pan.
VANDEEK 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor
  Goodwood 15:00 Just the six have declared for this St Leger trial, the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes, a Group 3 contest run over 12F for three year olds only. Four of the sextet are proven on soft ground with the duo who which aren’t being Burdett Road who also has plenty on and Canberra Legend and that pair are first two to be dismissed. Chesspiece looked good up at Hamilton a fortnight ago winning the Glasgow Stakes when making all and could well attempt similar tactics here today for father and son duo Simon & Ed Crisford. William Haggas’s Desert Hero is taking a step up in class having won a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot and has won on soft and heavy ground so will handle conditions better than most whilst Ralph Beckett’s Artistic Star was a two year old maiden winner on soft ground and having finished 7th in the Derby ran third to King Of Steel at Royal Ascot. The one i like though is the Aiden O’Brien runner Espionage who is the highest rated of the sextet and has the services of Ryan Moore. A runner up (beaten a head) on heavy ground in a Group 1 as a juvenile he made a winning re-appearance in listed company at Roscommon a month ago and can take this en route to a tilt at the St Leger which he is currently a top priced 8/1 chance. I’ll be backing him for today’s race and is also worth chancing ante-post for the St Leger run at Doncaster in September.   ESPIONAGE 2 points win @ 15/8 bet365 ESPIONAGE (St Leger) 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 123   Goodwood 15:35 Just the six line up here for the day’s feature race, the 10f Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes for three year olds and upwards fillies and mares. It’s a fascinating match up with the top French three year old against the best of her elders of her own sex. Blue Rose Cen is a very smart filly trained by Christopher Head who trains in France. She has won the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks this season in good style, winning the latter by 4L under Aurelian Lemaire who is in the saddle today. She has plenty of form on soft and even heavy ground so conditions will hold no fears for the French challenger. She is however rated 2lb inferior to last year’s winner, the John & Thady Gosden trained Nashwa who found her form in no uncertain manner when bolting up in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting last month coming home 5L to the good from Remarquee. She too has form on very soft ground so conditions shouldn’t hinder her too much. It’s a fascinating match up and I fully expect them to fight out the finish. At the respective prices I’ll have to go with Hollie Doyle and Nashwa but it will be no shock if the French filly wins. Roger Varian’s Al Husn actually beat Nashwa at Newcastle on the all-weather track back in June but she’s not certain to be as suited by wet turf and I expect Nashwa to turn the tables here today. Aiden O’Brien’s Never Ending Story is held by Nashwa on Newmarket form and this is a race to watch and savour with my selection being Nashwa.   NASHWA 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365   All odds were available at time of writing  

Perfect example of ratings and class working hand in hand ...hopefully will throw up a few more winners in the future .....put the non runner stake on Rhoscolyn so returns 99.12 +79.12 ...that covers recent losses and a nice chunk profit .....onwards and upwards 

Done 3.5 points on the Gdwd Comp
3.00 Gd Hackman 2 pts ew at 20/1 3 p
5.20 Gd.  Darkness a non-runner.  Put off a bit with Roscolyn when Richard @richard-westwood says the horse doesn't like soft ground.  Had 8 points win at 7/2 last night.  Have put in a lay bet of 8.16 at 3.45 to win 8 points if the price gets matched and any horse wins the race
15.5 staked today so far
4.10 Gd Indispensable 1.10 win at 10.5
16.6 stakes now
6.40 Galway The Goffer 1 pt win at 15.5 and AshTree Meadow 1 pt win at 13.00
= 18.6 stakes now

Done 3.5 points on the Gdwd Comp
3.00 Gd Hackman 2 pts ew at 20/1 3 p
5.20 Gd.  Darkness a non-runner.  Put off a bit with Roscolyn when Richard @richard-westwood says the horse doesn't like soft ground.  Had 8 points win at 7/2 last night.  Have put in a lay bet of 8.16 at 3.45 to win 8 points if the price gets matched and any horse wins the race
15.5 staked today so far
4.10 Gd Indispensable 1.10 win at 10.5
16.6 stakes now
6.40 Galway The Goffer 1 pt win at 15.5 and AshTree Meadow 1 pt win at 13.00
= 18.6 stakes now

sydneyarms 2.25 ew 

Does unibet know something we don't?

Flat selection
Galway 5.10
SEA GARDENS

40Tote.ie Never Beaten By SP (Q.R.) Maiden of €17,000.00 3-y-o plus 1m. 4f. 43yds. 21 Declared
A very Irish race.
Most of this field have won a race in the national hunt code either bumpers chases or hurdles.
There are only a few actual flat horses in here and never one to miss an opportunity Joseph O’Brien runs a group one horse up and under.

This although a maiden is also a handicap in all but name as the variance in weights comes in winners penalties. There are at least three different weight bands and
up and under
is near the bottom.

Perversely therefore, up and under carries just 11-2 and would be going some to lose in receipt of many pounds from most of the field.
Someone of course has to come second and third and that’s likely where the value is here.
If you want anything approaching evens with up and under you need to back him to win by a length or more, but on these terms he should be five lengths clear by the end if not more.
Second to white birch in a maiden on heavy and subsequently fifth to Augusta Rodin in the Irish derby receiving lumps of weight and rated 100 you’d have to burn the saddle and put the ashes in an urn if he didn’t deliver here.
Anyway you can get evens for him to do the deed by two lengths or more, and on these terms I’d say that was very fair…
in addition  to receiving ten pounds, he gets every possible assistance 
from the draw given that a corresponding stall has been vacated too.
What could go wrong??????
 
up And Under to win by 2.0 lengths or more @ 6/5
Price Boost -  Galway 17:40
 

Gal 640 A Wave Of The Sea  18/1 
£10 ewx  10 pl.  bet365

Lost 
-£20 aug
-£60 since 10th July 2023
-

5.30 redcar Galton 22/1 £10 e/w bet365

Won
Profit £20

Goodwood 3.35
PADDINGTON 
£20 win BET365 superboost 1/2 to 1/1

Goodwood. 
5.20. Island Kia     13/2
coral win 
Good luck all. 

Paddington (3:35 Goodwood). Boosted to evens on Bet365.
 
 
What Bet365 curse! Did that very nicely.

He's been well backed and oisin Murphy is up suggesting they expect a good run .....ground is only negative ....he doesn't want it too soft ....but looks a winner waiting to happen soon if not today 

Sandown. 
Single 
8.02. D D Ottette       4/1
stk 5.00     25/1
Double. 
4.10. Goodw.  Tropic Island     3/1       unpl
2.35. Redc. Salamanda            11/4       unpl
stk 6.00   rtn 41.00.
Good luck all.

Have backed him from my Tracker, has dropped 15lbs in the weights, backed him LTO and jockey was slow to remove hood in stalls (racing post comment blindfold off late), kept changing inside, outside all the time, and cost him the race IMO. I'm in again as he will surely win soon.

Monitoring weather forecast for Tomorrow & looking good at moment for Ladies Day.......
'' Cloud will break in Aft, Lengthy sunny spells, remaining dry, easing winds'' 😎 🤞
 
Free £5 multi EW  WON  Tony Montana  4th  &   Breege   2nd......
O Murphy & W Buick both have winners @ 10/3   /    R Moore 2 wins @ 3/1...... ( both these bets cant win to late NR's )
Good 1.50      Struth  8/1 EW            &     Tony Montana    17/2 EW     4th    &         Alumnus  28/1 EW  NR                          4 places
Good 2.25      Jumbly   9/2   NR              &      White Moonlight   6/1            &           Fast Response 9/2         &      Breege     7/1 EW     2nd         4 places
Good 3.00      Big Evs   5/2     WON            &        Kylian  11/4............ Hackman 14/1    &      Shagraan  10/1  
Good 3.35      Paddington / Aldaary   R/FC    &          Inspiral / Aldaary   R/FC  ( in case this 1 race too much for Fav )   &  Facteur Cheval   12/1  
Good 4.10      Indispensable     7/1 EW       3rd           &            Dapperling    10/1 EW    4th     &     Ziggys Dream  12/1 EW                 4 places
Good 4.45        There's the Door  5/1   WON  6/1      &      Sirona   10/1 EW   NR          &      Chips & Rice  14/1 EW        4 places   ( 3 places with late NRs )
               
2 wins 🏆 🏆 .......an EW double and 4 EW places, so happy on a day of NRs / crap ground so came out ahead just 😎
 

I've done ASH TREE MEADOW 11/1 ( 5 places ) only 1Lb higher than when finishing 5th in race last year negated by claimer taking 7Lb off . 1st 👍
5.02 Perth - AL KALIA 10/3 Sky bet , up against the odds on favourite but S.Crawfords yard are in form . 👎
Flat : 
445 Goodwood - SIRONA 10/1 Bet365 ( 4 places ) I've done well last couple of seasons with German bred horses in the UK with cut in the ground from 8-12f though this a little high in the weights . non runner , surprisingly , ah well , still a winner , kind of 😆

It didn’t seem too bad yesterday but obviously the rain arrived overnight . Galway got off lightly I think and the going has gone from Yielding to Good/Yielding which favours my selection and the likes of Hewick. Hewick will have to run to 170+ to win this I’d have thought which is an almighty ask.