The Equaliser

Even though the thread title is Arc De Triomphe ( Sunday ) I'll post Saturday's here as well which I hope is ok .
133- SEA THE SKY ( 16/1 bet365 3 places) showed massive improvement stepping up & winning over CD last time out & the more rain the better . 4th 
325- PRINCESS ZOE ( 18/1 bet365 3 places ) back off the same mark as when winning this last year on very soft same as Saturday's . 4th 
435- THE REVENANT ( 11/4 bet365 ) I just like this horse , will absolutely relish the going but is giving the Aga Khan's horse 3Lb , will be flying late . 2nd 
rather they be last than one place from a pay out .
Marquand , Moore & trainer O'Brien reporting the ground nowhere near as bad as reported , more sticky than proper soft but plenty of rain forecast tomorrow morning .

Watch the race see what happens im predicting based on data that the horse will fade unless as i pointed out he has tried them at home, the data actually shows 2nd time blinkers work far better,  it ran quite well last year in the arc as a 3yo and is german bred so i reallly wanted to back it at 100/1 but have basically crossed it off my shortlist, might i suggest many trainers dont know the actual stats, what i am saying is that a horse first time blinkered that has to run around a bend (they panic) will only win once out of 100. Oddly enough it doesnt apply in jumps racing. Alenquers best chance is if it gets boxed in all the way round to stop it using all its energy up too soon.

I personally think the draw angle is a bit of a red herring in the arc, 4 winners from 20 renewals thats actually 20% . the ground is most significant factor for me if it is Heavy
apparently it is soft at the moment with lots of rain forecast, Alpinista is a horse i have highly rated since its first run and i have made plenty of money out of it.
Going to give my tips based on soft/heavy going which excludes all the 3year olds, this race is gruelling and the soft/heavy ground means they will be floundering in the last furlong they are just not strong enough at 3yo.
The fav on all known form should be Alpinista. Torquator tasso 4yo has been there and done it, is this year stronger than last? No chance. Just look at the result from last year 2nd tarnawa 5yo 3rd hurricane lane 4th adayar 5th sealiway 6th snowfall, broome 11th
I wanted to recomend Alenquer ew at 100/1 but Haggis has chosen to experiment by fitting first time blinkers, anyone doing an in depth study on fto blinkers will know that they actually scare/panic a horse into running faster which means they will burn out sooner than they would without them, this is exagerated if they have to run around a bend. so unless Haggis has seriously tried the blinkers at home it is around a 100/1 chance it will win despite any other considerations. ( going to cover this with just a £2 ew just in case foolish bet) The Japanese runners seem to hate heavy ground as they have little or no experience of it so its safe enough to rule those out.
So i am left with 6 runners
Alpinista              11/2                       dr6                                                                                           likely winner
Torquator Tasso   15/2                      dr18          Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd
Mendocino           33/1                      dr1           Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd
Mare Australis      20/1                     dr19          Ger                                                   Fabre had many options  also Murzabeyev booking seems significant.
Sealiway                33/1                     dr15           beaten 4,1/2/ last year as a 3yo
Bubble Gift            66/1                     dr 13          beaten 5,1/2L last year (finishing well) as a 3yo
Conclusion.
Already backed Alpinista at 20/1 & 16/1
going to cross first 4 in forecasts and Tricasts
best ew is probably mendocino (beat torquasor lto and it didnt look a fluke to me)

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
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Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

Usually a filly or mare ,last year's winner being drawn on the car park is a plus for alpinista who has won on soft before love her to win for Luke Morris 

Only 4 winners from the last 20 renewals have came from a double figure draw two from stall 14 & two from 15 , I'd fancy a home bred winner but bit of a dart job .

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....
Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 
Vadeni          8.9  10/1 
Alpinista     8.9   11/2 
Westover    8.3 
Do deuce    8.2 
Deep bond   8.0 
Mendocini    8.0 
Al hakeen   7.9 
Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....
Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 
 

Ralph Becketts runner in France, let's see if his jockey gets elbowed off this runner. 
Longchamp. 
1.50. Dandy Alys.        28/1.    ew.. trouble free run.. unpl. 
Good luck all. 

Longchamp. 
Double. 
3.50. Nashwa..      5/2... 2nd 
4.25. The Platinum Queen.      11/4... 1st 
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Uttoxeter 14:18 Aucunrisque 2.25 / Win     14:53 Castle Quarter 3.75 / Win     15:28 Finalshot 5.50 / Win     17:13 Galice Macalo 3.00 / Win             Kelso 13:25 The Nagivator 4.5 / Win     15:12 Nuts Well 3.00 / Win    
Good luck folks.  

Some results:
Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Fontwell 14:35 Mascat 8.50 / Win 2nd   15:10 Zacony Rebel 2.62 / Win 1st   15:45 Chapmanshype 4.00 / Win Last   16:20 Fresh New Dawn 17.00 / EW 2 places  NR           Newmarket 15:17 Leadenhall 3.75 / win NR  
Not too bad, at least I had a win, 2nd place and some money back from non-runners.  Chapmanshype..... the less said about that one the  better, eh @azzybear ?

great card tomorrow at Longchamp  good hunting to all ?

Profit of just over 6 points on the day with winners at 13/8 & 7/2 and a few places as well.

A VERY busy Saturday. 
2.12 Red - Can't stop now - 4/1 (1/5 4 places) - 2pts EW
2.25 Asc - Hamish - 11/8 - 4pts win
2.35 Font - Wet and Windy - 2/1 - 4pts win
3.57 Red - Spirit Catcher - 13/2 (1/5th 4 places) - 2pts EW
5.00 Wolv - Liberated Lad - 4/1 (1/5th 4 places) - 2pts EW
5.37 Red - Fast Response - 4/1 (1/5th 5 places) - 2pts EW
7.30 Wolv - Swiss Ace - 5/1 (1/5th 4 places) - 2pts EW
8.30 Wolv - Midnight Train - 5/2 - 4pts win
32pts staked

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections
September was a better month with 5 winners from 25 selections and a profit of £525. 
Poor overall though with 33 winners from 269 selections and a loss of £1,997.50.
Today's selections
NEWM 1.31 Ill Be There (4) 5/1 ASCO 1.51 Manaccan (10) 4/1 ASCO 2.25 Cresta (5) 9/2 NEWM 2.42 Laurel (7) 15/2

Redcar

2.47 Dubai Poet 11/4

5.07 Billy No Mates 4/1

Singles & double

Good luck all CNBB.

Longchamp Treble  - Bet365 prices

1450 - Denmark     11/4
1600 - Addeybb     8/1
1635 - Triple Time    11/2

Just a few today....

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Fontwell 14:35 Mascat 8.50 / Win     15:10 Zacony Rebel 2.62 / Win     15:45 Chapmanshype 4.00 / Win     16:20 Fresh New Dawn 17.00 / EW 2 places             Newmarket 15:17 Leadenhall 3.75 / win    
 
Good luck ?

William Muir & Chris Grassick only runner. 
Redcar. 
5.37. Swayze.        7/1..... unpl 
Good luck all.