Smiles Tennis

The first tournaments have lots of surprises. If you go to tennis-data.co.uk and download the years excel for 2022 (ATP and WTA). Then you can check the fav... B365W < B365L will give you all the favorite winners, the opposite >= will give you the fav losses. Then look at the win rate. It is pretty clear that the 1st tournaments are difficult. By Wimbledon, the win rate has gone back up by +10% as the good players get used to it.

Elina Avanesyan (+4.5) to beat Donna Vekic at 1.91 with Unibet
Opposing Vekic after a big win looks like the way to go for me here. Avaneyan has improved dramatically in recent times and her good run in the French Open seems to have helped her mentally as well, so I think that she definitely has what it takes to challenge Donna here.

I use the algorithm so that I don't have to spend all my free time watching tennis. The algorithm is never going to pick 100% winners so losses don't bother me as long as I'm profitable,  which I am. 
Good luck with your betting. 

I use the algorithm so that I don't have to spend all my free time watching tennis. The algorithm is never going to pick 100% winners so losses don't bother me as long as I'm profitable,  which I am. 
Good luck with your betting. 

I use the algorithm so that I don't have to spend all my free time watching tennis. The algorithm is never going to pick 100% winners so losses don't bother me as long as I'm profitable,  which I am. 
Good luck with your betting. 

I use the algorithm so that I don't have to spend all my free time watching tennis. The algorithm is never going to pick 100% winners so losses don't bother me as long as I'm profitable,  which I am. 
Good luck with your betting. 

I use the algorithm so that I don't have to spend all my free time watching tennis. The algorithm is never going to pick 100% winners so losses don't bother me as long as I'm profitable,  which I am. 
Good luck with your betting. 

If I start making a loss I'll reconsider.  At the moment it's making a profit so I'm happy.  I'm not debating it anymore,  we all do things differently.  Remember,  7-8 on clay over odds of 3.00 though 😉

No but ranking doesn't concern me in the slightest.  I don't use my opinion of the players in the slightest.  It's purely maths and stats based and there's lots of losing bets every day, at the moment the payout from the winners is more than covering them though. 
I admire your determination to make me admit she's crap and she probably is,  I've never watched her play.  

But opposing Kanepi in certain situations does. She was about 1.34 or something today, she's already lost three times this year at sub 1.25. You never know when they throw a shocking performance in. I thought I would look up Caijsa record, she's won her last three matches when her odds were higher than 3.00. She probably will lose today, but there will be times when she will win as underdog. I just checked further, if you backed Caijsa at odds over 3.00 going back to the start of 2020, you would have a profit of 10 points. She's good for a long term profit at high odds. 

I think Norrie matches up very well with Jordan Thompson.
Thompson not huge power, and probably gets outplayed by somebody better at the finesse game.
Have not been impressed with Bianca Andreescu. I watched her on clay, and shemoved really badly. Grass will make this lack of moment even more telling. For me she loses to a sneaky good player in Vondrousova. I think the left handed serve gives Andreescu problems all match.
Two longer shots that I like
Avanesyan to beat Blinkova. Avanesyan came back from the dead to beat Kasatkina yesterday. She was buried in the final set, and I couldn't believe it when I saw she won 7-6. Already, she has wins over very good players, and she is just starting out. Someone to keep an eye on.
Zhu to beat Linette (really nothing between them).
Will take the 2 longer shots as two separate bets.

There are less selections for sure on grass due to the lack of matches played on this surface yes. All the back testing seems to work fine though. I slightly change one part of the criteria to get extra matches included in the algorithm and this hasn't affected the results drastically so seems worth it to get the picks. 
I would say the favourite players stats take precedent, including more recently, then the underdog stats, then underdog recent form. So Lisicki's earlier matches on grass will have an affect on producing picks, but it's minimal. 

@Smiles Tennis As the pool of grass matches is that much smaller than other surfaces I'm wondering how valid your system is for this surface. As an example, Lisicki has historically been very good on grass, but hasn't been a factor at all on the main tour for quite a few years now. I appreciate that backing Lisicki might also have to do more with opposing Garcia and her record on the grass, but at the same time for me this is where systematic betting can fall down as Lisicki's data is surely out of date and not much use when assessing her chances today. Anyway, best of luck with what you're doing and I hope it's successful.

The value theory is bullshit. Value is when you deal once for ever, for example when you buy a car, a house in auction, or similar. Where is the value on betting? You win and after you lose. You win a 'value' bet and after you lose because you are addicted idiot. Never tell me about your bullshit value theories. Thanks

I wanted Boulter to win and thought she would as well,  but she was a bit short for me so Watson was the bet.
I'm often backing players I think will lose but if the price is big enough its the best bet. 

The sharp punters will be all over the bookies and the exchanges taking the underdog price if she actually should be the favourite. As you get closer to the start the exchanges and Pinnacle are usually very accurate as to the true price as all the money has come in. If a fave is priced as the underdog they won't be for long as it will get hoovered up fast.

The sharp punters will be all over the bookies and the exchanges taking the underdog price if she actually should be the favourite. As you get closer to the start the exchanges and Pinnacle are usually very accurate as to the true price as all the money has come in. If a fave is priced as the underdog they won't be for long as it will get hoovered up fast.

WTA Nottingham - Watson to beat Boulter - 2.42 with Betfair
Both players playing very well this week. Boulter beat Dart, who probably beat herself with her bad attitude, and Watson beating some very capable grass players this week. Three Brits in the SF's means motivation is high as they all chase the coveted British #1 spot and Wimbledon WC's. 
Watson has the experience here as she has played in 11 WTA semi finals before with this being Boulters first. Boulter is in better recent form but this week Watson has been on fire and with her experience, I think 2.42 is a value pick. 

Sakkari was useless. Even had a chance at 5-4 down 2nd set. 0-30 she then played 2 atrocious points. Missed a mid-court forehand long (by a meter) at 15-30 which should have given her 2 break points.

@Smiles TennisI saw the entire match and Cornet won, Sakkari had a few frustrations, but her level was quite solid overall. Cornet had some incredible passing shots as well and was moving well throughout. The best I've seen her for ages.

I saw some highlights of the match, and I think it was a bit of both.. Sakkari is clearly not in form on grass, but what I saw of Cornet looked pretty solid.. I was considering to back USA player because she seems overlooked, and I don't even know who she is.  She's also playing really well, but I am afraid to go against Cornet.. It should be a clear dog or pass situation. I would never consider backing Cornet at that price, and I thought both women looked equally strong with maybe a slight edge to Cornet.. But, it's hard to tell from the highlights. 

Todays picks. Could be the odd one or two more for the later US matches. 

The second part 100% agree. They don't take mental strength and mental fitness/motivation etc into account, although thinking about it they do partly as these factors will already be built into the price of the player. 
The first part is incorrect. Doing the reasoned write up, from 1 May until 9 June so let's say five weeks, I was at just under 10 points profit. In the six days since using the algorithm it's gone from 9.81 pts profit to 22.52. In 6 days. It's had a couple of days with small losses (half a point ish) but it's nothing to worry about. The ROI is sitting at 18% and this is high for long term expectations. I would think it would drop to half that and if it can come down with "break even" days essentially instead big wins then big losses, then I am more than happy. 
The other reason I headed down the algorithm route is my personality. I don't like to do things by halves, call it addicted/committed whatever, but when do something I put 100% into it and only do it if I can do it properly and to the best of my ability. Doing the reasoned picks was hard work. Every waking minute pretty much I was either watching highlights/reading news and forums, researching stats and prices and trying to find a value pick. As soon as the kids were in bed I was watching tennis, when the kids were on my lap watching tv I would be reading tennis stuff on my phone next to me, and although I did enjoy it, it was hard work. 
This showed when I was away on holiday a few weeks ago and couldn't do the proper research I like to do for a few days. I made bad picks that week and it annoyed me. I then realised that to do it this way I would need to find a way to spend every waking minute pretty much on it or I didn't think I would be able to do it well. And this was only focusing on WTA, I didn't even glance at ATP. It's bloody hard to win at this game but we love trying!
Now the algorithm picks take me maybe 90 mins or a bit longer on a Monday when there's lots of matches but today it should take me 10 mins which I will do a min now I've had my breakfast. And I have my evenings free again without having to constantly watch highlights. More than doubling 5 weeks profit in six days and having my time back makes it the easy choice for me. Anyway, I've probably sent you to sleep already...picks to do.

The second part 100% agree. They don't take mental strength and mental fitness/motivation etc into account, although thinking about it they do partly as these factors will already be built into the price of the player. 
The first part is incorrect. Doing the reasoned write up, from 1 May until 9 June so let's say five weeks, I was at just under 10 points profit. In the six days since using the algorithm it's gone from 9.81 pts profit to 22.52. In 6 days. It's had a couple of days with small losses (half a point ish) but it's nothing to worry about. The ROI is sitting at 18% and this is high for long term expectations. I would think it would drop to half that and if it can come down with "break even" days essentially instead big wins then big losses, then I am more than happy. 
The other reason I headed down the algorithm route is my personality. I don't like to do things by halves, call it addicted/committed whatever, but when do something I put 100% into it and only do it if I can do it properly and to the best of my ability. Doing the reasoned picks was hard work. Every waking minute pretty much I was either watching highlights/reading news and forums, researching stats and prices and trying to find a value pick. As soon as the kids were in bed I was watching tennis, when the kids were on my lap watching tv I would be reading tennis stuff on my phone next to me, and although I did enjoy it, it was hard work. 
This showed when I was away on holiday a few weeks ago and couldn't do the proper research I like to do for a few days. I made bad picks that week and it annoyed me. I then realised that to do it this way I would need to find a way to spend every waking minute pretty much on it or I didn't think I would be able to do it well. And this was only focusing on WTA, I didn't even glance at ATP. It's bloody hard to win at this game but we love trying!
Now the algorithm picks take me maybe 90 mins or a bit longer on a Monday when there's lots of matches but today it should take me 10 mins which I will do a min now I've had my breakfast. And I have my evenings free again without having to constantly watch highlights. More than doubling 5 weeks profit in six days and having my time back makes it the easy choice for me. Anyway, I've probably sent you to sleep already...picks to do.

The second part 100% agree. They don't take mental strength and mental fitness/motivation etc into account, although thinking about it they do partly as these factors will already be built into the price of the player. 
The first part is incorrect. Doing the reasoned write up, from 1 May until 9 June so let's say five weeks, I was at just under 10 points profit. In the six days since using the algorithm it's gone from 9.81 pts profit to 22.52. In 6 days. It's had a couple of days with small losses (half a point ish) but it's nothing to worry about. The ROI is sitting at 18% and this is high for long term expectations. I would think it would drop to half that and if it can come down with "break even" days essentially instead big wins then big losses, then I am more than happy. 
The other reason I headed down the algorithm route is my personality. I don't like to do things by halves, call it addicted/committed whatever, but when do something I put 100% into it and only do it if I can do it properly and to the best of my ability. Doing the reasoned picks was hard work. Every waking minute pretty much I was either watching highlights/reading news and forums, researching stats and prices and trying to find a value pick. As soon as the kids were in bed I was watching tennis, when the kids were on my lap watching tv I would be reading tennis stuff on my phone next to me, and although I did enjoy it, it was hard work. 
This showed when I was away on holiday a few weeks ago and couldn't do the proper research I like to do for a few days. I made bad picks that week and it annoyed me. I then realised that to do it this way I would need to find a way to spend every waking minute pretty much on it or I didn't think I would be able to do it well. And this was only focusing on WTA, I didn't even glance at ATP. It's bloody hard to win at this game but we love trying!
Now the algorithm picks take me maybe 90 mins or a bit longer on a Monday when there's lots of matches but today it should take me 10 mins which I will do a min now I've had my breakfast. And I have my evenings free again without having to constantly watch highlights. More than doubling 5 weeks profit in six days and having my time back makes it the easy choice for me. Anyway, I've probably sent you to sleep already...picks to do.