Smiles Tennis

Btw, I don't know what this means, but I guess that you shouldn't be backing Williams to win the tournament .
 
 

Today: +8.13pts
Total (from 4th May): +38.71pts
 

Few more selections. That's probably it for the day. 
 

My system has Diego to win as well. I thought Struff was going to take it yesterday but he fell back towards the end. Schwartzman has been playing well. 

My system has Diego to win as well. I thought Struff was going to take it yesterday but he fell back towards the end. Schwartzman has been playing well. 

Diego Schwartzman to beat Kei Nishikori at 2.40 with 888sport
I think Diego deserves a lot of credit for getting to the quarters and here he's up against Kei who had lots of problems last match when he beat J-L Struff. I think Diego has found his game on clay again after lots of poor performances, he's my favourite to get into the semi in this match.

My remaining bets for the day
 
Kohli to beat Cecchinato
Vesely -2.5 games vs Bachinger

Venus Williams to beat Elise Mertens at 2.80 with bethard
I'm gonna have a look at Venus tomorrow and see what form she's in. Elise isn't in great form having only won 2 matches on clay so far and losing three. She lost in straight sets in the quarterfinal of Rabat to the tournament winner Maria Sakkari. All three of Elises losses on clay have been tight affairs so it seems like she doesn't have the confidence currently to win a tight match. And this match could be tight.

Having just read the rules to the Betting Systems thread, I will give a bit more info. I am new here so didn't read it at first as I put my original post in the tennis thread. 
The system basically takes years worth of data for results and compares it to how it should have performed according to what the market predicted (start price). If something is overperforming or underperforming according to historical results, then the player is either a back or their opponent is. 
The bet is then placed roughly 40/50 ticks higher than their current price when I check the data and make the selections, in the hope they will drift that far, be matched, then win. You can watch the match and just bet in play if they reach a higher odds than listed, but I like not having to follow so many matches so I place the bet and leave it. 
I am hoping their SP is value due to the algorithm indicating it is, but with an extra 40/50 ticks, the value will be increased. Time will tell. 
As for the last two bets remaining for the day, Coria is currently a set up and hasn't been matched. Smith has already drifted pre-match and been matched so no need to wait for in play on that one. 
 

Started with a back of Bertens. She is an outstanding 24-3 on clay when at these odds and after she was on fire yesterday against Kvitova I think this is great value. 

I'm the same 

Yes, it's a very small sample but more I mentioned it because it's been the same for years. I have had breaks from betting and trading over time, mostly due to lack of discipline and I have always had my best results with WTA. 
That it came up again could be pure short term variance, but it keeps me thinking to all the times in the past. 

I like that the former ATP player Raemon Sluiter is coaching Kiki Bertens. He was also very good on grass so he might give Kiki some good results on grass this season to. Anyways tonight is Kikis night by the looks of things. Good pick @Tennis Picks

Thanks for posting, I've gone for +3.5 games Kiki Bertens at 1.60 with Betfair and this reasoning from you makes me feel better about it.

Kiki Bertens to bt Petra Kvitova @2.28 with Betfair. 
Bertens over-performs when an average of these odds, going 18-15 including winning 5 of the last 6 (although this does include a WO against Muguruza).
At these odds, Bertens hasn't lost in straight sets since losing to Coco in IW over three years ago. 
Similarly, Kvitova underperforms at her odds, going 14-14. She's also lost three of her last four when around these odds, losing to Barty, Osaka and Svitolina. 
My other system has Bertens to back in play but I might stop doing in play and taking pre-match bets as they missed four winners today because they didn't drift enough. Bertens to take this. 

Picks up to the 3pm matches. 
Match - selection - odds (unmatched to be left to match in play on Betfair) - stake. 
 

Yes, it's one big accumulated performance indicator. The recency of the matches doesn't matter. 
I take extra ticks, (sometimes only 25/30, it's not always 50), because it's extra value. Gasquet 3.1 and Pouille 3.3 both won having drifted that far pre-match. They both won (and in straight sets I think).
Were they actually more likely to lose 30 mins before the start than 3 hours before the match? Maybe, if some injury news came out or quote saying they felt tired etc, but more than likely a favourite had lost a previous match and people were chasing losses by piling into the next fave that's playing. I know Dimitrov lost before one of the matches so maybe that had something to do with it?
But even throughout the match, I know technically they're more likely to lose because the opponent has more points but if a player goes a break down in the first are they actually more likely to lose? or does the match have so many fluctuations that a break doesn't matter? 
Now, if a player breaks at 4-4 in the third set then you will see a massive odds change. They're more likely to win because it's so close to the end. I try to avoid getting too involved in the in-game details. So often I back a player at SP and see them trade higher. Why not grab that extra value? 
A few will not get matched as you can see from the results but I think the amount that gets matched at the higher price more than cover it and with extra on top. 
So in a nutshell, the markets tend to be fairly efficient, long term, with regards to SP and the end result. What happens in between doesn't matter for this. I find matches where there is a small (or hopefully large) discrepancy in their long term results (their career) and what the market thought about their chances. 
It takes time to analyse the form, how tired they are, injuries, their opponents, the conditions etc, and it's all been done for us in the price, it's all included already by everyone who is betting and I trust their judgement (most of the time)
It's how the player performs when the market gives them a certain chance to win which is where I come in. 
For example. Albert Ramos Vinola, when SP is an average of 1.6, he *should* win 62.5% of his matches if the markets are efficient. I can tell you he's only won 58% of those matches. 25% of them when playing on hard courts. 
Serena Williams, when an average of 1.2 should win 83% but has actually won 87%. Take this out to 1.4 and she should win 71.4% of the matches but is at just 63%. Do people give her more chance of winning when they should?
I take that info, mix it with my secret sauce handed down through generations and use it to place my bets. 
 

I use matches from 2011 to now. Most players only started playing after then and that's a decent number of games. 

Total for today: +8.02pts
Total since 4th May 2019: +19.02pts
Today's results:
 

My system threw up Djere as well. I will be trying to get on in play at higher odds though. You're right that he lost in the final of Monte Carlo, losing to Fognini after getting some great wins. 
Those wins propelled him from #48 up to #23 where he sits now. 
Apart from Monte Carlo, in Masters events, he has reached the 4th round of IW but he did reach the QF of Madrid last year, getting three good underdog wins against Khachanov, Gasquet and JMDP before losing to Anderson in 3 sets. Should be a good match today. 

I will post a few bits on there then, but this is a system so I will keep the main posts for that in here. Cheers.

Three early bets today. 
These bets are placed before the start, unmatched, to hopefully be matched in play and then left to run. 
 

Having just read the rules to the Betting Systems thread, I will give a bit more info. I am new here so didn't read it at first as I put my original post in the tennis thread. 
The system basically takes years worth of data for results and compares it to how it should have performed according to what the market predicted (start price). If something is overperforming or underperforming according to historical results, then the player is either a back or their opponent is. 
The bet is then placed roughly 40/50 ticks higher than their current price when I check the data and make the selections, in the hope they will drift that far, be matched, then win. You can watch the match and just bet in play if they reach a higher odds than listed, but I like not having to follow so many matches so I place the bet and leave it. 
I am hoping their SP is value due to the algorithm indicating it is, but with an extra 40/50 ticks, the value will be increased. Time will tell. 
As for the last two bets remaining for the day, Coria is currently a set up and hasn't been matched. Smith has already drifted pre-match and been matched so no need to wait for in play on that one.