Smiles Tennis
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Posts
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Joined
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Last visited
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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One more
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17 minutes ago, Torque said:
That's surprising. I was sure Fognini would be a bad proposition as a favourite - must be confirmation bias at work
He just loses when we back him lol
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few more, also a fave I am backing thrown in. Hopefully some decent value.
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6am match
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5 hours ago, Torque said:
Taylor Fritz to beat Fabio Fognini @ 1.80 William Hill
Following on from my earlier post, I've decided to take Fognini on. He's too unpredictable to be backed at shorter prices, and I'd reckon that siding with him at evens or lower would be showing a tidy loss so far in his career ( @Tennis Picks can probably answer that). This isn't just about Fognini though, as Fritz has been playing well for a while now and like most Americans plays his best tennis on hard. He was a bit slow to start against Gunneswaran but recovered well and if he can up his consistency levels that could be enough to get the win here - nothing frustrates Fognini more than consistent play which makes sense as it's the opposite of his playing style. The Italian can certainly win this and although he prefers clay he plays well enough on hard, but all things considered I think Fritz should be a little shorter.
Backing Fognini as fave over his whole career would amount to a total of 29pts profit with 1pt stakes.
When you do it just on hard court, you end with 11pts profit.
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1 more to finish the picks for the night.
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My spreadsheet hasn't synced in dropbox so will update that when home later. 2 more picks for now.
Backing Verbeek v Glasspool - Lexington Challenger - 3.05 Betfair
Backing Brengle v Anisimova - San Jose - 3.49 Betfair
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1 more
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1 match this morning.
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3 matches over night.
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1 more.
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1 more, the money isn't there to back the underdog so laying the fave instead.
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They've paid out. No email, no contact, no idea why they changed it but they paid out so that's happy days.
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Two more.
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Just now, anaconda69 said:
I got paid put it down
Who did you bet with? My mate in South Africa got paid out as well with a SA bookie.
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Gojowczyk won last night but for some reason Betfair have voided my bet. I was fully matched before the start and the match was completed as normal looking by the result, he won in three sets.
I rang them but the woman had no info so said it's been sent to the trade team and they will email me and update. Did anyone else have a bet? Did you get paid out?
I will leave that result to update on the spreadsheet. It'll be annoying if it remains voided though, it was a nice priced win.
Two for today so far. I am now checking the matches in order of total amount matched, therefore some matches might be quick to start. I am finding that even with small stakes, to get matched fully before the start I would need to take a price sometimes 50 ticks lower which takes away the value. By checking matches as they have a larger amount matched, usually around £1000 instead of £200 like sometimes, hopefully I can get fully matched at a nice price.
Failing that, I might have to leave some to match in play but there were a few around 2.7 or 2.9 that only matched about £20 then shortened and didn't go back out so I missed out.
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Three overnight picks.
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Two more picks.
- anaconda69 and thecurlyone1
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Loss this morning, one for this afternoon.
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Coco won, first overnight win I think, maybe the luck is changing? Four nice priced wins in a row. Hopefully on the right track again now.
One pick for this morning.
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£412 so far today from the three matches. One more from the overnight events, Vandeweghe to win at 2.88 with Betfair like normal.
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Good effort @OddsPredictor, I have my methods and it was a little bit tight for time on occasions, but it's mainly looking at the results that I wanted to focus on just the higher odds as they have such a good ROI, three from three today at odds 3.25, 2.78 and 3.54. More days like this would be nice, less work and more profit.
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Maamoun won. Two more for this afternoon.
Tennis 2.0
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
1 more for the overnight matches. Decent profit today with a few wins.