Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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Two for this evening.
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7 hours ago, Wildgarden said:
doing urs inplay when losing... trying to get some extra value as i know the swings on tennis cant make it good. sakkari yday i had 8-1 but sadly lost the 3rd lol
In an old thread of using a very similar method I would set the bets 10/20 ticks higher to match in play. After a while I noticed there were lots that were winning easily and not getting matched so I scrapped that idea. I'm not sure the long term results would show it's worth it but def worth recording the bets and seeing how it goes.
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One more for the early hours.
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One for in a while
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One more for the early hours...
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Couple of picks for today.
- alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden
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2
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Sabalenka is a back in the early hours of the morning so complete the night. Sorry for the short notice earlier, business problems to fix then young children to deal with meant I didn't get a chance to check until just before they started.
- Wildgarden and alexcaruso808
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Back swiatek v Badosa, 2.46
manic with kids, sorry, will update properly soon
- Wildgarden and alexcaruso808
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back Rublev v Tsitsipas, 2.16
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Little update for the totals. No bets today so far but will check the 8pm matches later today.
ROI is way too high for long term, I'd expect it to come down to maybe 3-5% if there's a decent edge to this method but time will tell.
- alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden
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6 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
I'm following your final selection, only getting on now so I'm a little late.
Your call if you're using money. I am still paper trading after covid causing so much tennis to be missed. Seems to be still a method that works though although it's early days and I will be using money in the new year if it continues to turn a profit. I imagine it won't be this lucrative longer term but profit is profit and profit is what we want.
- Wildgarden and alexcaruso808
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One more selection for the early hours of the morning.
I will update in the morning, and hopefully do a little total so far of profit/loss, ROI etc. Maybe weekly would be good for this, we'll see.
- alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden
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2
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Couple for early evening, still paper trading of course, until at least the new year.
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Backing Dellien v Coria 2.32 is a selection, just checking more now but that starts soon.
- alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden
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2
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A winner last night. Five selections for this evening. I am running an ultra marathon in Wales tomorrow so won't be back on the computer until Sunday at some point so will update then and check for more selections.
- Wildgarden and Simadin
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One more for the early hours of the morning.
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Tonight's results.
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Hi everyone,
It's been a while. Hope you're all good.
After Covid putting a stop to sports etc for so long I looked at getting back to it a while ago but the form wasn't there to provide the data so I held off. Well now they've been playing again I thought I would start recording some paper trading bets with a view to going back to money in the new year some time if it seems OK to follow for real.
Quick points.
Paper trading only at the moment
Using Betfair prices when I research selections (I have added profit already on the spreadsheet so it's easy to track when results are in, or change to a loss, and includes commission from my what if figure)
I am using a mean regression algorithm that crunches stats and data and throws up selections for players who might have been under/over performing compared to market sentiment. Seeing as the markets are quite efficient, the players should return to winning/losing an amount of matches that their odds say they should win.
I will try to share the paper trade selections often, but at times I will be away so can't always do it. I will share ones I put on the spreadsheet, so you won't just see random winning selections added.
Any comments and discussion are welcome.
Hopefully it's interesting enough for someone to keep an eye on and maybe see how it goes, rather than just me talking to the thread by myself!
A few selections I have picked for tonight, paper trading with £100 stakes.
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How long is it going to take you to make selections if you are looking at all that info for each player? All the common info is already included in the price. You need to find a way to find an edge, rather than just looking at H2H record etc.
Also, upset likelihood? How are you going judge that? Just your opinion? a pundit's opinion? the markets opinion?
A few things to think about.
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I am putting this on the back burner for a while, it had Tiafoe last night but after looking into the stats a bit more, I see how much tennis was missed last year and some players have only 3 or 4 matches in the criteria to use, and it's not enough. I have been going further back but that doesn't seem to be working like it did before. Might need a few months, even until the summer, until players enough recent form to give some stats that are more relevant.
I will play around with other things and see if anything comes up worth a look, but this can rest for now.
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one more,
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picks...
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Some morning picks...
Tennis Betting with Mean Regression Algorithm
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Few for this evening, still paper trading.