Doedelzak

Hi to everyone.
Alas i've not posted since October 12th due to being rushed to hospital with a severe Pancreas condition , i've unfortunately hit my 80th consecutive day at the hospital today.
Also unfortunate to being too ill to even think about using a computer so basically that's the fundamental and only reason for not posting on this great site.
I'm now starting to get back to some normality by actually looking at sports betting which is always a good measure of improvement and feeling a bit nearer normal despite losing 35lb in weight whilst in hospital.
Fully intend to start posting on all competitions again from Jan 1st although my release from hospital is likely to be around the 12th of Jan.
Apologies to MCCLARKE and all the guys running the other comp's for abstaining all this time as i fully appreciate all the hard work that goes with running all these competitions.
See you all again from Saturday , belated Merry Xmas and have a great New Year.

7.00 S, Sophar Sogood 5/1 B365

As in previous years the Naps competition will be taking a break in line with that taken by the BHA. There is no UK or Irish racing on Thursday, Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.
May I take this opportunity to wish you all a happy Christmas and a prosperous and healthy new year.

2:55 Ascot – Pic DOrhy @ 11/10 BET365 

Obviously the Sun wasn't as bright in the olden days ........ that's why everything was in black and white

Apologies, for some reason I'd pivked up Kavanaghs Corner rather than Kavanaghs Cross. I will update in the next table.

Perth 1300
Large Trix
21 ew bet365

14.25 Lingfield
GOLDEN RAINBOW @10/11 PaddyPower

An exciting last day sees @Craig bluenosepip @LEE-GRAYSby 1/2 a point with @Carole-dawneysecuring 3rd spot.
Could the prize winners please PM me pay-pal details.
Next competition will be Royal Ascot.


 

The big fight tonight is Del Boy, Chisora against Parker. I am going to take 2 bets for tonight. I am going to take Parker on points, firstly. Chisora isn't known for being knocked out and Parker doesn't have a huge amount of power, really. I can see a real close fight and i'll also have a small point on the draw, also. A draw would keep both fighters career going just abit longer
4pts Parker to beat Chisora by points or decision 7/4 skybet
1pt draw 22/1 paddypower

Congratulations to @Sugardaddyken who wins this month's competition with a healthy profit of £51.80. He also won the Aintree tipsters competition !
No last day heroics although a valiant effort from @LEE-GRAYSwith a 100/1 2nd.
Prize winners
@Sugardaddyken£60 + PL merchandise
@trainmad091£30 + PL merchandise
@Harry_Faint99£20 + PL merchandise
@Gary66£10
@Xtc12£20
@waggy£30
@Zidane123£10
Can prize winners please PM me with pay-pal details and addresses for merchandise.
ALLOW UP TO 14 DAYS FOR PAYMENT

PUNCHESTOWN TIPSTERS COMPETITION - Day 2 Selections - Wednesday 28th April 2021
15:40 - Guiri
16:15 - Galthor 
16:50 - Liftime Ambision 
17:20 - Crosshill 
17:55 - Kemboy
18:30 - Kilcruit 
19:00 - Black Op 
19:35 - Manisanda 

Just 8 DAYS to go in the jump jockey champs and Harry Skelton leads Brian Hughes by a score of 141-139 with Brian only having the 1 winner on Thursday at Cheltenham, both jockeys go to Ayr with rides in all races 
Harry Skelton rides Stepney Causeway(1300), Soyouthinksoagain (1330),Eskendash (1405), Global Harmony (1440), Not That Fuisse (1515), Defining Battle (1550), I'd Better Go Now (1627)
Brian Hughes rides Mrs Hyde (1300), Beyond The Pile (1330), Fourth Of July (1405), Lily's Gem (1440), Schiehallion Munro (1515), Fete Champetre (1550), Sultans Pride (1627)
Skelton 4 Fold:  Stepney Causeway, Global Harmony, Not That Fuisse
Hughes Double: Fourth Of July, Fete Champetre
**********************************************************************
1340 Newbury HM The Queen has a runner in this race King's Lynn becomes my nap having finished 2nd at Doncaster in October,  im also considering a Rev F/C in this race with Ivatheengine won at Newmarket last time after a 6 month absense could go well and given the Queen travels by train to Norfolk town of King's Lynn when going to her residance at Sandringham which isnt too far      Kings Lynn: 11/4 with most bookmakers and Ivatheengine is 8/1 with most 
Fontwell 1535 probably about the best race at the Sussex track, Good News comes into this off a victory at Plumpton 11 days ago and Kieren Buckley takes 7lbs off, Bolt N Brown finished 2nd last time out but hasnt won since last year at Ludlow possibly needs a few to run below par to get more than a place effort in this contest, Emma's Dilemma won for the first on her 18th start last month at Huntingdon she goes up 8lbs for that but jockey Nathan Brennan takes 7 of that off so could make it back to back wins and is my selection here
Exeter 1750 Jersey Wonder won at Fontwell 18 days ago and gets a 6lb rise for that and may back that up, Cotswold Way 2 runs ago finished 4th at Kempton on 1lb higher that this race disappointed at Cheltenham on most recent start 126 days ago however, my selection will be Jarvey's Plate won at Newbury 3 weeks ago and recieves a 4lb penalty with Jockey Liam Harrison claiming 7lbs 

I'd recommend considering the Wisdom Of Crowd Market Index

The original author never trades in a market with an index above ~0.13 
Below this index, " the crowd is relatively uninformed about the likely outcome and presents an excellent opportunity for the informed sports trader."
TL; DR "... adapting Shannon's Entropy formula ..."
First, calculate the implied probabilities of the prices: x = 1 / d (where d = decimal odds).  Next, calculate the log probabilities: y = log(x, n) (where n = number of competitors).  Then multiply the probabilities by the log probabilities: z = x * y.  Finally, sum the products and subtract from one for the final index: w = 1 - (-sum(z)).

Jockey Champs scores on the doors are:  Hughes (137), Skelton (134) and Cobden (123), The 2 Harry's continue at Aintree while Brian Hughes goes to Sedgefield 
Harry Skelton (Aintree)
1345 - Wilde About Oscar
1420 - Third Time Lucki
1450 - Shan Blue
1640 - Midnight River
Harry Cobden (Aintree)
1345 - Amour De Nuit
1420 - Houx Gris
1450 - The Big Breakaway
1525 - Politologue
1605 - Magic Saint
1640 - Bravemansgame
Brian Hughes (Sedgefield)
1400 - Bellaney Gem  WON
1430 - Court Jurado
1505 - La Mystere
1622 - Wind Of Hope
1655 - Agent Valdez  WON
1730 - Getaway Jewel  WON

Other Race Notes:
Sedgefield :- 1400 Taste of fear for Dr Newland could be the one to beat in this race with 7lb claimer Cillin Leonard on board and won last time out at Hexham against Tara Mill who meet again in this race however i marginally side with Brian Hughes mount Bellaney Gem who finished 2nd at Kelso in a 7 runner event   -  WON 5/4f
Leicester :- 1440 Trinity Lake finished 2nd at Wolverhampton last time out but hasnt been seen since (6 months) and Zak Wheatley takes 7lbs off for this race, Soaring Star last seen also 6 months ago at Doncaster finishing 2nd  and has had wind surgery during that time could make the frame however i like Dirty Rascal who won earlier in the week at Wolverhampton which was helped by a fast pace up from 9st 2lb to  9st 12 on ratings but jockey Mark Crehan negates half of that with a 5lb claim  WON 11/8f
Sedgefield :- 1622 Ciarabella lightly raced mare comes into this following a C&D 2nd place in February finished ahead of Wind Of Hope who also runs in this race, i however like Gameface to be ridden by Richie McLernon finished 3rd over C&D 2 weeks ago and will be off the same mark for this contest and re-fitted cheekpieces could be the answer for this horse  WON 11-10f
Leicester :- 1630 Modmin won last year as a 3YO and last seen finishing 2nd at Newmarket 6 months ago and looks like a possible decent 4YO this season, Mars Landing (nap) space this horse was seen last season finishing 2nd at Chelmsford under Oisin Murphy and i feel has a decent chance in this race to win under Pat Dobbs and has finised in top 3 in each of last 4 starts  WON 5/2
Sedgefield :- 1730 Conundrum won over C&D 2 weeks ago and rises 6lbs for this race might be just about right for that success I shall take that on with Getaway Jewel for Brian Hughes has finished in the places in all 4 starts in handicaps goes down in trip from 2m 3f to 2m for this  WON 9/4

Looked at Sedgefield so far today
2.00 I do fancy Taste The Fear to win this race.  Its price is around 7/4 and has been steady overnight.  I haven't backed it and have preferred to save my stake money for a later race
2.30 Very tricky race with up to 7 horses under 10/1.  Nothing really stands out so I'll leave it
3.05 Whispering Gypsy £2 win at 8.8 = £15.29 profit if it wins.  Bled from the nose last time out and won a bumper before that so I'm taking a chance that it has recover
3.47 Nothing stands out and top 2 int the market have drifted in price overnight.  No Bet
4.22 Looked at Gameface with Wind Of Hope a danger.  Gameface has never won a race and although Wind Of Hope has I'm not sure it will stay the distance so no bet
4.55 Agent Valdiz looks to be the best bet of the day so I have had £8 to win at 2.36.  It appears that only ATR and Timeform have gone against it.  I think its Brian Hughes best ride of the day so I have opted to back this one instead of Taste The Fear in the first race.
5.30 Placedela Concorde £2 win at 10.0 = £17.64 profit if it wins.  Hopefully the good going will revive this one's effort
£12 total stakes so far.
Will take a peak at Aintree soon
 
 

I think anybody who bets at SP these days doesn't really understand betting. There are so many other options available compared to when I first started betting.

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Aintree, Thursday 8th to Saturday 10th April.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.

Easter Monday :-  See's us with 7 meetings like Saturday again mix of Jumps, Flat and AW,  ITV4 are showing 5 from Fairyhouse with the small matter of the Irish National at 5pm with the undercard being 4 races from Kempton on the Polytrack 

Jump Jockey Champs stands BEFORE racing at   Brian Hughes: 134,   Harry Skelton: 131   and   Harry Cobden:   120     live  scores updated below
Both Cobden and Hughes have 3 rides at Chepstow while Harry Skelton has just the 6 at Plumpton

Brian Hughes : 134  (Chepstow)
1330 - Prairie Town
1400 - Blueberry Wine
1510 - Court Royale

Harry Skelton:  132 (Plumpton)
1410 - Ambassador  N/R
1445 - Aheadfullofdreams WON
1520 - Dothraki Prince
1555 - Solomon Grey
1625 - Getariver
1655 - Azzuri

Harry Cobden: 121 (Chepstow)
1300 - Seelotmorebusiness
1400 - Brewers Project  WON
1510 - Ashtour

looking at the rides Brian Hughes doesnt have the best rides in the world so a chance for Harry Skelton to pounce is highly likely
Skelton Treble: Aheadfullofdreams, Getariver and Azzuri 
==============================================
Elsewhere 
1405 Fairyhouse:  Fox Fearless  10/1 Bet365
1450 Redcar: Daafr   6/1 Paddy Power
1505 Wolves:  Lostwithiel  4/1 Bet365  (NAP)  WON 
1545 Chepstow:  Gleno and Buster Thomas  Rev F/C
1550 Fairyhouse: Stormy Ireland  9/1 Paddy Power  WON
1602 Kempton:  Leafhopper at 11/2 on Bet365
1615 Chepstow:  On Call  currently 3/1 with William Hill
1700 Fairyhouse:  Sempo  12/1 Paddy Power
1710 Kempton:  Fresh  4/1 William Hill

Tuesday 16/03/2021
Sedgefield 02:20 SABBATHICAL
f/c. 7/4
Stake =  10 pts. WIN

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Cheltenham, Tuesday 16th to Friday 19th March.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.

Result
Chelmsford 02:04 ALBUM..... 1st..8/11
Chelmsford 04:45 AT YOUR SERVICE..... 1st..7/5
Rule 4 Applies @ 10%
Todays Profit =  +  19.87 pts
Current Years Profit 2021 =  + 19.87 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2834. 27pts. 
Profit = + 2734. 27pts. 
 Current Winning Run =  2

PL Top Tracks 
Kempton is the No1 track for profit but Ripon although only 10th on the list is showing a terrific yield from just short of 300 selections. Both race tomorrow so it will be interesting to see they get on.

 
 

Top Class.

His method found 4 winners out of 5 selections at Cheltenham this year.