Doedelzak

Congrats to @BOOKIEBASHER 13 who wins the competiton and the £100 prize. Picking out the winner and a gr8 pick in Harman and also picking out Jordan, who finished T10.
Please PM me your Paypal details. Sorry the leaderboards were abit behind this tournament but we'll go again in 2024.

Hi Gents, any of you guys golfers? ....my  'Lady in Pink' has seen the American 5 shots clear @ 8/15 to win......but do see her logic in saying just put few quid on 4 guys chasing him if he 'choaks' ! ....Rahm 13/2.....Cameron Young 8/1.....Viktor Hovland 18/1......Tommy Fleetwood 20/1.... and then 'go live' during the evening and back as play in progress!
AND just so not a naughty boy for golf quessie!.......looking at Curragh 3.00  Jumbly 3/1 and Tarawa 10/3 to pay for our Carvery out.....along with maybe 
Curragh 4.30 paying 5 places.... so looking at So Majestic 7/1 EW   Mymomentintime 10/1 EW     Son of Sampers  12/1 EW         
 
Curragh off ☔

Oh, Sorry. 

The big handicap this Saturday is the London Gold Cup at Newbury. This premier handicap is for 3-year-olds and is run over 1 mile and 2 furlongs. Off time is 15.00.
16 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
Horses should ideally have had a reasonable rest. Those that last ran more than 31 days ago have won 6 times form 28 attempts with a profit of 16 points at Betfair Starting Price. Those that have run more recently have just 2 wins from 69 attempts with a loss of 54 points.
It is best to stick with those horses at the top of the betting. From the top 3 in the betting there have been 6 wins from 26 runs and a profit of 19 points.
Those drawn in stalls 1 to 3 have the best record with 4 wins from 22 runs and a profit of 11 points.
 
Only 1 horse matches these criteria.
DESERT HERO 9/2
I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 5 places.
 

1535 Curragh
Star Girls Almaal
Trained by Henry de Bromhead; was fourth in the Jersey Stakes and Irish 1000 Guineas. Also 4th at the Curragh in March.

Will do a lucky 31 each day at punchestown due to no comp this year 😂😂 the only one I did well in 😂😂 se our we get on 🤞💰👍

Congratulations to @adamrosswho picked 4 winners on the last day to take the daily prize and also the total prize
Well done to @Hotpotklonkand @Redno2009who dead heat for 2nd
Could the prize winners please PM pay-pal details
Allow 21 days for payment
 
 



 

1.45 Jonbon 
2.25 West Balboa 
3.00 You Wear it Well 
3.35 Monmiral
4.15 Beauport 
5.15 Coko Beach 
6.20 Bizzard of Oz 

Some bookies might be offering 9 places !

1.45 Gerri Colombe
2.20 Sonigino 
2.55 Hullinback 
3.30 Pic D'Orhy
4.05 Ashtown Lad
4.40 Maximilian
5.15 Parramount

I'm going to add Theegala too. Can't ignore that Masters form
0.5pts e/w Theegala 66/1 skybet

My Cheltenham series of statistical analyses had some successes but many of the strategies resulted in very low strike rates. 
I am going to try a different approach for Aintree and limit my data to those horses at the top of the market. I will concentrate on those horses that are in the top 4 in the forecast betting.
This is a profitable approach in it's own right with 122 wins from 737 runners and a level stakes profit of 182 points at BSP. The AE is 1.10. It has also shown a profit every single year of my 9 year analysis. In addition it has also found the winner of the Grand National in 5 of the last 8 years.
Stick to the class 1 races. Class 2 races have shown a 21 point loss with an AE of 0.81.
Avoid those races at the minimum distance of 2 miles. These have resulted in a loss of 24 points with an AE of 0.79.
 
Areas of potential increased profitability include.
Odds last time between 2/1 and 50/1. 104 wins from 589 runs, profit 222 points, AE 1.20.
Horse ridden by a different jockey than last time. 49 wins from 260 runs, profit 111 points, AE 1.38.
Distance of race different to last time (more or less than 1 furlong). 54 wins from  276 runs, profit 191 points, AE 1.40.
Days since last win greater than 75. 60 wins from 346 runs, profit 153 points, AE 1.29.
Consistency in the last 2 years factor between 0.54 and 0.38. 49 wins from 222 runs, profit 136 points, AE 1.53.
 
Whilst the strike rate for handicaps is lower the AE is better at 1.18. There have been 29 wins from 267 runs and a profit of 108 points.
Stick to distances of 2 miles 4 furlongs and above. 25 wins from 191 runs, profit 134 points, AE 1.49.
Avoid horses going down in class (based on value of the race). 24 wins from 175 races, profit 146 points, AE 1.61
Bigger fields show the best results. Stick to races with at least 17 runners. 25 wins from 206 runners, profit 142 points, AE 1.45.
Weight carried last time between 10st 8lbs and 11st 4 lbs. 21 wins from 127 runs, profit 158 points, AE 1.74.
 
The record for grade 1 races is 67 wins from 313 runs with a profit of 64 points and an AE of 1.09.
Horses should be running with a similar OR to the last run, no more than 3lbs higher or 2lbs lower. 51 wins from 184 runs, profit 96 points, AE 1.32.
Avoid horses that were 1st last time. 49 wins from 216 runs, profit 98 points, AE 1.25.
OR between 145 and 153. 29 wins from 109 runs, profit 51 points, AE 1.46.
 
Hopefully plenty of pointers there for a profitable 3 days. Fingers crossed that the success of fancied horses continues !
 
 
 

1 Scottie Scheffler 11100
2 Justin Thomas 9300
3 Will Zalatoris 8200
4 Cory Connors 7600
5 Adam Scott 7500
6 Zak Johnson 6300

I won't be trusting him with my doh!

I haven't had a look yet but just creating this link so that I can add the link to the comp. Scoring is in the link and then the predictions are in a seperate thread which is linked at the bottom.
Be good if we could get 20 participants. That would be my goal I think but we shall see.
 

The ITV cameras bring us seven races today with four coming from the feature meeting at Sandown who have to pass a 8 AM inspection with a chilly night forecast and with the ground very much on the soft side and three from Wolverhampton where it’s Lincoln trial day. Here’s my thoughts on the seven.   Wolverhampton 1.30 The days action kicks off with a ten runner 6F class handicap. Silkie Wilkie arrives in decent form having made all to win at Kempton last time and although 6lb higher will surely have his followers. Anything Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane rides has to be given respect and he’s on board Baldomero for Mick Appleby and The Horse Watchers and also has claims. The one I like however is bottom weight Ingra Tor trained by rookie handler Jack Channon who took over the reigns from his father Mick earlier this year and has already had 3 winners from 20 runners. He’s been gelded since last seen some 197 days ago but was a useful turf sprinter last summer who has already won on the all weather. If he’s ready to go he looks worthy of a bet.   INGRA TOR 2 points win @ 6/1 Bet Victor   Sandown 1.50 A decent sized field of seventeen turn up for the EBF Betfair NH Novices’ Handicap Hurdle. The race as one would expect has a very open look about it with several holding chances. On my short list is Gary Moore’s Inneston who was last seen winning over course and distance 23 days ago from Twin Powers, one of three Paul Nicholls runners in the race. Dan Skelton’s Etalon is another possible having won well at Wetherby last time and sporting a first time tongue tie here. I’m going to take a chance however on Milton Harris’ Twinjets who is better off at the weights for being beaten by Twin Powers over course and distance in February and has already won twice in soft ground so will certainly enjoy the wet terrain. There’s additional places available here so make sure you search them out.   TWINJETS 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5th 12345   Wolverhampton 2.05 The Spreadex Sports Lincoln Trial Handicap is up next. Run over 1M 142 yards it is, as the name suggests, a trial for the big one at Doncaster next month. A field of thirteen have declared with the favourite the one I like best. Trained at Newmarket by John & Thady Gosden Unforgotten runs in the royal blue Godolphin silks and will be ridden today by one of their jockeys in James Doyle. He returned from a 659 day absence to win two handicaps at Lingfield over a mile a tad cosily, coming late and fast to mow down his opponents. The handicapper has had his say by pushing him up 8lb but that may not be enough to stop this lightly raced Exceed And Excel roan from winning again. Last year’s winner Notre Belle Bete is back to defend his title but is now 8lb higher whilst a bigger threat may well be the Mick Appleby trained War In Heaven who’s chasing a course and distance five timer.   UNFORGOTTEN 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365   Sandown 2.25 A bumper field of 18 face the starter for the feature race of the day - the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle run over the minimum trip of two miles. Like the EBF Final the contest has a wide open look about it. Gary Moore’s Givega is a decent novice who bounced back to form when winning a novice hurdle over course and distance last time and in his first handicap is high on my short list. Ireland send two over having plundered the race last year with last year’s winning trainer Peter Fahey saddling Zoffany Bay who was a massive drifter last time at Ascot when running really well to finish runner up to the improver Irish Hill. Dan Skelton’s Playful Saint should also be considered having bolted up last time at Leicester whilst cases can be made for top weight Metier who will love the heavy ground and even Venetia William’s charge Djelo. Stakes kept small but it’s Givega for me each way with additional places.   GIVEGA 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfair Sportsbook 1/5th 12345   Wolverhampton 2.40 Eight go to post for the Spreadex Sports Lady Wulfruna Stakes, a listed contest run over 7F. A strong fancy here is the Ralph Beckett trained Angel Bleu, a smart soft ground turf performer who’s making his all weather debut for a trainer who won with 3 of his last 4 runners. Angel Bleu has kept the best company on turf running in group one company on 4 of his last 5 starts winning two of them. With no penalties for those victories he may simply outclass his seven opponents headed by last years winner Tinker Toy, who’s very in and out and Andrew Balding’s Berkshire Shadow who’s been gelded since last seen 212 days ago. From a yard in red hot form Angel Bleu will be very hard to beat if anywhere near fit enough.   ANGEL BLEU 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hill   Sandown 3.00 Only nine turn up for this listed mares only bumper. At the head of the market we have the easy Hereford winner Casa No Mento trained in the Cotswolds by Nigel Twiston Davies whilst there shouldn’t be much between Harry Fry’s Goodtimecrew and Paul Nicholls’ Larchmont Lass who wears a first time hood here. That may be enough to turn the tables and in a tricky contest is worth a small interest.   LARCHMONT LASS 1 point win @ 11/2 bet365   Sandown 3.35 A small field of six face the starter for this 2m 4F 10 yard class 1 handicap chase and features the best bet of the day in the favourite Easy As That trained by Venetia Williams. Soft ground is a must for the improving eight year old who’s won two of his three starts over fences in splendid style rising 16lb for wins at Haydock and Newcastle. Olly Murphy saddles his dual winner this season in No Risk Des Flos and he may be the biggest threat although Brian Ellison’s Baron De Middleton shouldn’t be overlooked as he appeared to improve last time for a wind op. He may not appreciate the soft conditions however.   EASY AS THAT 3 points win @ 6/4 BetVictor  

OFCOURSE it's let down by one. Standard. Lennon you absolute pile of....

The FA Cup of darts gets underway on Friday, I’m having a punt on a few players at longer prices, who are in decent form, and don’t have the distraction of the Premier League to contend with. 
 
1pt e/w Ryan Searle (40/1 General)
Ryan Searle has started the season in good form, reaching the final in two of the four Players Championship events played, winning one of them. He’s averaging nearly 97 in those events and transferred that form to the Baltic Sea Darts Open last weekend, where he averaged 95, 100, 99 and 101 in his four matches, reaching the semi-finals. Searle has never been beyond the sixth round at the UK Open, but he did reach the final of the Players Championship Finals in 2021, played at the same venue as this event, so does have some form at Minehead.
 
1pt e/w Damon Heta (40/1 PaddyPower / William Hill)
Damon Heta hasn’t had the best start to the season in terms of his results, but his performances have been pretty decent, in eight matches on the floor he has averaged over 100 in four of them. Whilst he’s generally done very well in the floor events, his stage performances have sometimes been called into question, but there have been signs that side of his game is on the up. He won the World Cup of Darts alongside Simon Whitlock last summer, and then clinched his maiden title on the European Tour at the back end of the last year. Heta also reached the quarter-finals of this tournament last year, knocking out Michael van Gerwen and Jonny Clayton in the process.
 
1pt e/w Gabriel Clemens (100/1 BetFred)
Just two months ago Gabriel Clemens had the tournament of his life when he reached the last four of the World Championships at Ally Pally. He saw off Gerwyn Price (plus ear defenders) in the quarter-finals before succumbing to eventual champion Michael Smith in the semi-finals. He’s already reached a final on the floor this year, although would have been disappointed with a first round exit last time out at the Baltic Sea Darts Open, albeit with a 99 average. If the German can recapture his World Championship form, 100/1 seems like a big price.
 
(Be a bit careful with the each-way terms, some bookies are offering four places, some just two, in a 158-runner event)
 
Also like to have a fun Acca on the Friday, have selected players who seem to have started the season better than their opponents:
1pt Acca on Knops, Kenny, J Wilson, Kciuk, Veenstra, Brooks, Lennon, Wattimena, A Lewis @ 134/1 (Coral)

I won't put too many bets down for the Premier League this week as I am much more interested in the UK Open but 1 for me and it's Price to beat MVG. Price was unlucky at the Baltic. He beat Usher with a 109 average and then went out to Chizzy scoring a 108 average. He's looking to go back into doing abit of Rugby but even when he went to the Rugby club apparently he was 1 dart from a 9-darter. He is playing well again and I reckon he beats MVG, who flattered to deceive again, losing to Bunting.
I think although I' not really interested in a single bet on him, Aspinall is worth a bet in a 4-fold purely because of Smiths injury issue at The Baltic. He didn't play badly against DVD to be fair but I don't think he is at 100% at the moment and he lost against Aspinall last time out. Worth half a point in a 4-fold. I think Clayton looks a good pick against Wright based on last week, also. 
2.5pts Price to beat MVG 11/10 paddypower
1pt treble - Price/Van Den Bergh/Clayton 6/1 bet365
------------------------------------------
0.5pt 4-fold Price/Aspinall/Van Den Bergh/Clayton 18/1 bet365

Michael is back healthy   

Only just read this, please forward my very best wishes to @MCLARKE

Hi all,
I have been messaged by @MCLARKE to state he's currently in hospital but is hopeful he will be out and back to his normal routine in a couple of days so there will be a small delay to the NAP table being updated this week. We wish Michael all the best with what he hopes is a swift recovery and if he needs more time for recovery then we will look to get the tables updated for him. Understandably, this is Michael's labour of love and he's keen to continue to update it himself if possible for continuity purposes.
Thank you!
Steve

1:30 Haydock Park - Bo Zenith 9/2 VC. 

The ITV cameras are at Newbury and Warwick today for their trials days and with little rain around both tracks are reporting good ground, in fact Newbury and their Super Saturday have been unable to water this week so it may even ride a bit faster than good with the frost covers been down all week. Here’s my thoughts on the eight races :-

Warwick 1.30
Just the five have declared for today’s opener. A 2M 4F class 2 handicap chase with top weight Stolen Silver the form horse. Sam Thomas’s eight year old ran a stormer in a better race than this on New Years Day at Cheltenham when beating all bar Midnight River in a 2M 4 1/2F premier handicap. A reproduction of that effort should see him hard to beat despite a 4lb rise in the weights. His regular partner Sam Twiston-Davies is needed at Newbury so Adam Wedge comes in for a rare ride for Thomas. Messire Des Obeaux was rather disappointing last time when a fancy of mine although he had a valid excuse as that was his first start for 354 days. It would be no shock were he to run a fair bit better here for trainer Alan King. Galahad Quest is getting plenty of weight from Stolen Silver but it’s been a while since he won and the handicapper may just have him still. Donald McCain’s Mackenberg was foiled in his attempt to secure a hat trick when only 5th of 11 at Doncaster a fortnight ago and this can go to Stolen Silver.

STOLEN SILVER 2 points win @ 6/4 bet365

Newbury 1.50
A field of nine staying hurdlers assemble for this 3M class 3 handicap hurdle which has an open look about it. Paul Nicholls saddles a brace of runners in Barbados Buck’s ridden by Harry Cobden and Flemenstide with Bryony Frost in the saddle. The preferred of the pair is the former who showed signs on his two starts this season that his turn is near whilst Flemenstide has to put a poor re-appearance effort behind him at Chepstow around Christmas time. You can feasibly make a case for all nine of these including Dan Skelton’s West To The Bridge who will be ridden by Bridget Andrews with her partner Harry Skelton needed at Warwick and even Regarding Ruth, currently the rank outsider of the field on the comeback trail having been missing for 645 days for Lucy Wadham and ridden today by a 10lb conditional jockey. A tough race with marginal preference for Barbados Buck’s.

BARBADOS BUCKS 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

Warwick 2.05
Only six face the starter for this 2M 5F listed mares hurdle. Officially 6lb and upwards clear on official ratings is the Harry Fry trained Love Envoi who’s only been beaten once in her career nine starts including the mare’s novices’ hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year. She loves to get her toe in and this will be the soundest surface she’s ever raced on. It would not be a shock if she was pulled out on the day due to the ground and at the respective odds I’ve got to oppose her despite her looking the obvious one. She’s heading for the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham in a months time which looks a cracker with the possibility of Honeysuckle and the Nicky Henderson pair of Epatante and Marie’s Rock in opposition. Henderson saddles his progressive mare Theatre Glory today and as she handles good ground so well she maybe worth a small interest to upset the favourite here. 2021 winner Molly Ollys Wishes for the Skeltons and Irish challenger Skyace don’t have much to find on official ratings and are two other possibles. Love Envoi will probably take this but I can’t back her on good ground so it’s Theatre Glory for me.

THEATRE GLORY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

Newbury 2.25
A small but select field of seven have declared for this 2M 7 1/2F grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase, a trial for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Best in at today’s weights is the Paul Nicholls trained Hitman who still has questions to answer at this trip and it transpired he burst a blood vessel when pulling up in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. He can win but with those question marks over him I’ll be looking elsewhere for the winner. Last year’s victor Eldorado Allen has to shoulder a 6lb penalty here but has claims for the Joe Tizzard team whilst the Anthony Honeyball trained Sam Brown is much better on softer ground. It’s hard to fancy Kalashnikov and Zanza (despite his excellent record of 4 wins from 5 starts here) at these weights and the one I like is the Venetia William’s trained Fanion D’Estruval who’s sporting first time cheek pieces today. The eight year likes this track having won twice from four starts here and wasn’t disgraced under a welter weight when third in a decent renewal of the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day under Lucy Turner. Charlie Deutsch takes over here and should be thereabouts.

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

Warwick 2.40
This four runner grade 2 Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase looks likely to go to Nicky Henderson’s smart novice Jonbon. Owned by JP McManus and carrying a 5lb penalty he’s won 7 of his career 8 starts with his only defeat coming when runner up in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind stable mate Constitution Hill. He’s taken well to fencing having won impressively over course and distance and at Sandown in the grade one Henry VIII Novices’ Chase. This is his prep race for the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham in a months time and bar a fall he should be winning this. Gary Moore’s Haddex Des Obeaux is officially 8lb behind him and was very impressive when winning in handicap company over course and distance last month. He can chase the favourite home who is priced at prohibitive odds making this just a watching race.

Newbury 3.00
Five face the starter in this 2M 92 yard grade 2 Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase. We have a warm favourite here in Paul Nicholls’ Greaneteen who despite carrying a 6lb penalty today is still 15lb and upwards better than his four rivals. Good ground suits and he should outclass these en route to another tilt at the Champion Chase next month at Cheltenham ground permitting. An impressive winner on his re-appearance in the Haldon Cup at Exeter last November he wasn’t disgraced when runner up in the Tingle Creek at Sandown going down by 9L to the smart Edwardstone. Last year’s winner Funambule Sivola is penalised for that win and is out of form so far this season and is easily dismissed whilst Elixir De Nutz and Malystic although recent winners are stepping up in class today. A no bet race with Greaneteen likely to be at skinny odds. For those looking for a bet it maybe worth doubling up the two skinny ones in Greaneteen and Jonbon.

GREANETEEN & JONBON 2 points win double 4/9 & 2/9 Betfred

Newbury 3.35
Despite the fact that Newbury have been unable to water this week and the worry that we could end up with a sub standard number of runners for this 2M 69 yard Betfair Handicap Hurdle the field has stood up well with a decent field of 18 going to post. The weights are headed by last year’s winner Glory And Fortune whom his trainer Tom Lacey was bigging up earlier in the week. He’s been chasing this season and is now 5lb higher than last year’s victory. At the top of the market we have the Irish raider in Emmett Mullins’ Filey Bay who’s won two handicaps within a week last November rising a stone in the process and has since been bought by JP McManus. One would presume he’s been trained for this and there’s plenty to like bar the price at around 10/3. Nicky Henderson saddle No Ordinary Joe, a winner at Kempton over Christmas and now 5lb higher, he’s also in the same ownership as the favourite Filey Bay and the Willie Mullins representative Icare Allen. Novices have a good record in the race winning 7 of the last 9 and it would be no shock if Rubaud, one of two Paul Nicholls runners, along with Hacker Des Places, were to run well on his handicap debut although followers of his would of preferred to have seen a better run from the horse that beat him last time Rare Edition in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon on Thursday although he did scope badly afterwards. Down at the bottom of the weights another novice who could run well is the Nigel Twiston Davies trained Master Chewy who although still a maiden was set to win at Ascot in November when falling at the last. He’s bumped into a couple of decent sorts since and the race may well be run to suit. There’s several others with claims in this wide open handicap but with the ground in their favour and off of nice low marks I’ll take the novices Rubaud and Master Chewy each way with enhanced places to run big races on their handicap debuts.

RUBAUD 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
MASTER CHEWY 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

I like the Pegula bet. I think she has a great chance of winning the whole thing