ipswich45 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just 8 DAYS to go in the jump jockey champs and Harry Skelton leads Brian Hughes by a score of 141-139 with Brian only having the 1 winner on Thursday at Cheltenham, both jockeys go to Ayr with rides in all races Harry Skelton rides Stepney Causeway(1300), Soyouthinksoagain (1330),Eskendash (1405), Global Harmony (1440), Not That Fuisse (1515), Defining Battle (1550), I'd Better Go Now (1627) Brian Hughes rides Mrs Hyde (1300), Beyond The Pile (1330), Fourth Of July (1405), Lily's Gem (1440), Schiehallion Munro (1515), Fete Champetre (1550), Sultans Pride (1627) Skelton 4 Fold: Stepney Causeway, Global Harmony, Not That Fuisse Hughes Double: Fourth Of July, Fete Champetre ********************************************************************** 1340 Newbury HM The Queen has a runner in this race King's Lynn becomes my nap having finished 2nd at Doncaster in October, im also considering a Rev F/C in this race with Ivatheengine won at Newmarket last time after a 6 month absense could go well and given the Queen travels by train to Norfolk town of King's Lynn when going to her residance at Sandringham which isnt too far Kings Lynn: 11/4 with most bookmakers and Ivatheengine is 8/1 with most Fontwell 1535 probably about the best race at the Sussex track, Good News comes into this off a victory at Plumpton 11 days ago and Kieren Buckley takes 7lbs off, Bolt N Brown finished 2nd last time out but hasnt won since last year at Ludlow possibly needs a few to run below par to get more than a place effort in this contest, Emma's Dilemma won for the first on her 18th start last month at Huntingdon she goes up 8lbs for that but jockey Nathan Brennan takes 7 of that off so could make it back to back wins and is my selection here Exeter 1750 Jersey Wonder won at Fontwell 18 days ago and gets a 6lb rise for that and may back that up, Cotswold Way 2 runs ago finished 4th at Kempton on 1lb higher that this race disappointed at Cheltenham on most recent start 126 days ago however, my selection will be Jarvey's Plate won at Newbury 3 weeks ago and recieves a 4lb penalty with Jockey Liam Harrison claiming 7lbs The Equaliser, cannotbebeat, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 (edited) Seaside Girl 5:20 Exeter 13/8, looked a ready made winner last time when 2nd to a very well handicapped horse (won easily next time off 12lb higher). This looks a pretty soft race with Auld Sod the second fav. Should win with a repeat of the Huntingdon effort. Poor run, bad mistake almost unseated the jockey and maybe upset the horse a bit but didn't run to the same level as Huntingdon. Edited April 16, 2021 by yossa6133 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannotbebeat Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Ryan Moore/Michael Stoute Combo 3.25 Newbury Maximal 9/4 4.00 Newbury Crystal Starlet 4/1 5.05 Newbury Fetna 4/1 Oakley Brown jockey 3.50 Ayr Theatre Legend 5/1 Good luck all CNBB. Wildgarden and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 (edited) 1310 Newbury Tyson 9/4 = 1.5pts (INFO from an old friend who sends them occasionally and used to be very well connected) 1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt 1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts 1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt Win double 1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan 1610 Fontwell Diligent 1pt @ 4/1 1550 Ayr Torigni 6/1 e/w = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts Current pot = £855 Edited April 16, 2021 by Barnes1882 gbettle, Wildgarden and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ironjoe Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) Newbury 1.40 came from the dark 4/1 won Newbury 2.35 almighwar 5/2 2nd and cleonte ew 8/1 4th (a place with sky bet) Bath 5.40 wise words 100/30 2nd Bath 6.10 singing the blues 9/2 unplaced Good luck ? Edited April 16, 2021 by Ironjoe cannotbebeat, Wildgarden and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 10 hours ago, Barnes1882 said: 1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt 1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts 1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt Win double 1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan 1610 Fontwell Diligent 1pt @ 4/1 1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts Current pot = £905 Selections updated, think that's me done for the day. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 11 hours ago, Barnes1882 said: 1310 Newbury Tyson 9/4 = 1.5pts (INFO from an old friend who sends them occasionally and used to be very well connected) 1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt 1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts 1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt Win double 1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan 1610 Fontwell Diligent 1pt @ 4/1 1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts Current pot = £875 One last selection added (INFO). Good luck today ?? The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 All prices Bet365: 1.10 Newbury - 2pts win Poderoso @ 4/1 1.30 Ayr - 1pt e/w Lord Accord @ 20/1 1.40 Newbury - 1pt e/w Tis Marvellous @ 11/1 2.05 Ayr - 1pt e/w Slanelough @ 17/2 2.15 Newbury - 1pt e/w Solo Saxophone @ 16/1 2.50 Newbury - 1pt e/w First Lott @ 22/1 3.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Set Point @ 22/1 4.27 Ayr - 1pt e/w Sultans Pride @ 10/1 The Equaliser, Wildgarden and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 dirty rascal. 1.40 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Mrs Hyde 1.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) I can't see why the fav is odds on in the 1.00 wouldent touch the horse at that price Edited April 16, 2021 by azzybear Wildgarden and Wanderlust 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2256 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) April -30.5 1pt level stakes win only 13.30 Ayr Yes No Maybe So 15/2 b365 Lost 16.27 Ayr Off The Beat 9/1 b365 Lost 17.50 Exe Stay Out Of Court 13/2 b365 Won 18.50 Exe Harry Haze 11/2 pp Lost Prices as of now +3.5 April -27 Edited April 16, 2021 by roger2256 Result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 58 minutes ago, azzybear said: I can't see why the fav is odds on in the 1.00 wouldent touch the horse at that price Have to agree mate, prices shouldn't be that distant between the top two in the market. If I had to pick last night I would have actually gone with Mrs Hyde as it has the better form but it was a watching race for me. Someone must know something for the horse to be backed in that strongly but I still wouldn't touch it with stolen money. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 13 hours ago, Barnes1882 said: 1310 Newbury Tyson 9/4 = 1.5pts (INFO from an old friend who sends them occasionally and used to be very well connected) 1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt 1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts 1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt Win double 1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan 1610 Fontwell Diligent 1pt @ 4/1 1550 Ayr Torigni 6/1 e/w = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts Current pot = £855 One last selection in BOLD. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 I'd recommend considering the Wisdom Of Crowd Market Index The original author never trades in a market with an index above ~0.13 Below this index, " the crowd is relatively uninformed about the likely outcome and presents an excellent opportunity for the informed sports trader." TL; DR "... adapting Shannon's Entropy formula ..." First, calculate the implied probabilities of the prices: x = 1 / d (where d = decimal odds). Next, calculate the log probabilities: y = log(x, n) (where n = number of competitors). Then multiply the probabilities by the log probabilities: z = x * y. Finally, sum the products and subtract from one for the final index: w = 1 - (-sum(z)). Doedelzak, MCLARKE and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderlust Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 46 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said: One last selection in BOLD. When did you get 6/1 for Torigni? I have an interest in the race and have been watching the prices most of the day. Best price 9/2 for at least 90 minutes MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wanderlust said: When did you get 6/1 for Torigni? I have an interest in the race and have been watching the prices most of the day. Best price 9/2 for at least 90 minutes Probably Betfair: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wanderlust said: When did you get 6/1 for Torigni? I have an interest in the race and have been watching the prices most of the day. Best price 9/2 for at least 90 minutes Backed it first thing this morning mate. I could have actually got 15/2 but was waiting to hear off my mate who lives in Ayr and is usually very good with his selections up there. I still hadn't heard so decided to back and was annoyed I had missed the 15/2 but was happy enough with the 6/1. I was going to cash out if he said to leave it but he said at 6/1 it was good value so I've kept it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderlust Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Barnes1882 said: Backed it first thing this morning mate. I could have actually got 15/2 but was waiting to hear off my mate who lives in Ayr and is usually very good with his selections up there. I still hadn't heard so decided to back and was annoyed I had missed the 15/2 but was happy enough with the 6/1. I was going to cash out if he said to leave it but he said at 6/1 it was good value so I've kept it. Makes sense. I would have just expected you to have declared it with your first post. It was confusing me as you inferred you had just backed it when you posted an hour ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Just now, Wanderlust said: Makes sense. I would have just expected you to have declared it with your first post. It was confusing me as you inferred you had just backed it when you posted an hour ago Sorry, I just didn't want to put a bet up that I wasn't 100% keeping myself and until I spoke to my mate, I wasn't sure what I was going to do. Didn't want to put a bet up, people possibly follow it and then I cash out. I am happy to alter the price of the selection if you would like? But my bank won't match up if it wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderlust Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 So my original question stands then...What time did you get 6/1? I am genuinely curious, as It has not been 6/1 on my board( which covers all major bookies) since this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wanderlust said: So my original question stands then...What time did you get 6/1? I am genuinely curious, as It has not been 6/1 on my board( which covers all major bookies) since this morning Can't quite believe how much scrutiny I'm coming under recently. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes or make my returns look greater than they're. I have attached a photo of the message I sent my mate at 0910am this morning. I backed the horse shortly after this....(as you can see, I had already backed Miah Grace). vikki37, Zico10 and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said: Can't quite believe how much scrutiny I'm coming under recently. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes or make my returns look greater than they're. I have attached a photo of the message I sent my mate at 0910am this morning. I backed the horse shortly after this....(as you can see, I had already backed Miah Grace). just do bets price on offer at time of posting in brackets next to ur price... sorted. Wanderlust and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderlust Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said: Can't quite believe how much scrutiny I'm coming under recently. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes or make my returns look greater than they're. I have attached a photo of the message I sent my mate at 0910am this morning. I backed the horse shortly after this....(as you can see, I had already backed Miah Grace). If people post bets/advice on this site, they come under scrutiny. Nothing wrong with that. My point which seems to have been lost on you, is that when you posted the 'tip' it was not 6/1 Secondly and I guess I am being rather pedantic over something which is of no personal concern to me, it would appear that you bet horses early in the day, but do not necessarily pass them on as tips, as your buddy had not given you the green light. My point is that in order to have a working system, then every horse you back is part of your system, surely? Its all or none when you have a staking system. You cannot pick and choose which ones to declare and then as an after thought say.....oh by the way I backed such and such this morning at twice the price. Not Having a go at you, just trying to explain why people would question your postings LEE-GRAYS and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 I agree, it all comes down to value. It is probably good value at 15/2 or 6/1 but maybe not at 9/2. Personally, any selections I post I make sure that the price is available at the time of posting. I think we all appreciate your selections and also the fact you are keeping a record of your bank. This is very important and I would advise others to also post their cumulative profit / losses, both for our benefit and also their own. Wildgarden, The Equaliser, BBBC and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I agree, it all comes down to value. It is probably good value at 15/2 or 6/1 but maybe not at 9/2. Personally, any selections I post I make sure that the price is available at the time of posting. I think we all appreciate your selections and also the fact you are keeping a record of your bank. This is very important and I would advise others to also post their cumulative profit / losses, both for our benefit and also their own. Excellent advice. Is there anyway that you can get the web site administrators to set the exact time of posting on threads. It is sometimes confusing to read 3 hours ago etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ironjoe Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 8 hours ago, Ironjoe said: Newbury 1.40 came from the dark 4/1 won Newbury 2.35 almighwar 5/2 2nd and cleonte ew 8/1 4th (a place with sky bet) Bath 5.40 wise words 100/30 2nd Bath 6.10 singing the blues 9/2 unplaced Good luck ? Not quite getting rub if the green, frustrating today. Will start adding points and a profit/loss from tomorrow gbettle, Wildgarden, MCLARKE and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Is there anyway that you can get the web site administrators to set the exact time of posting on threads. It is sometimes confusing to read 3 hours ago etc. If you put the mouse on the "3 hours ago" it will tell you the exact time. gbettle, The Equaliser, Wanderlust and 2 others 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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