Nigwilliam

manintheshadows 12.20

The Dasher Conway      4 05 Gwl/         1/20th of a pt win     9/1
 
 
 
 
P/L   + 160.10   pts

1.15 Galway is one for the big stakes punter. Can’t see how the favourite Thedevilscoachman  gets beat providing he makes a clear round . 10/11 isn’t a bad price.

Chantilly
1223 - Eternal Dance @ 5/2 Hills  /  Moon Ray @ 7/1 e-w Skybet 4 places
250 - Egot @ 5/1 e-w Skybet 4 places  /  Rose Premium @ 11/1 e-w Skybet 4 places

Newmarket. 
Single. 
3.58. Caernarfon........ 8/1.     11/1         1st 
Good luck all. 

Ascot 2.05 
Broomfield Burg 9.9 9/2 fell 
Highway One O Two 9.9 9/1 won 
Anyharminasking 8.9 3/1
Galore Dessessaness 8.9 18/1
3 points win top two 

Kempton. 
Double. 
7.00. Covert Mission    5/2.... 3/1.         1st 
6.30. Lelabad.               15/8.             1st 
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

Bangor-on-Dee. 
Single. 
4.05. Getaweapon.       15/2. coral win 
 
Good luck all.  

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

Excellent double, well done ☺️

Think I would have cashed out and put a decent single on the last leg! But if money is no object leaving it was probably the best EV.
But a nice position to be in!

Yeah i agree that nothing looks well handicaped that's  how i ended up with Wave of Sea  who was 2nd in this last yeat btn 2 odd lengths and is 8lb worse off just hope the 6yo finds a bit of improvement also the decent claimer on Death duty (what a horrible name) steered me towards that one.

Newbury 4.50
CAPTAIN HADDOCK 14/1
£10 EW SKY 6 places SP

2.10 Chelt Straw Fan Jack 4/1 (1 pt win at 5.7)
2.35 Nb Miss Down Under 13/2 (1 pt win at 8.0)
3.10 Nb Beny Nahar 4/1 (1 pt win at 5.1)
1 x 0.5 win Trixie = 2.00 poss return 143.75
Singles and savers
3.10 Nb Juan Bermudez 0.60 win at 15/2
Total stakes so far = 5.60
------------------------------------------------------
RESULTS UPDATE
Nothing much to report.  Straw Fan Jack's win meant that I made a miniscule profit of 0.01.  Very interesting that I went against the favourite here but when I tried the same thing with Miss Down Under the favourite Misty Dancer sluiced up.  I guess I will have to work on when to oppose the favourite and when to go with it. My MTD is now -52.11 and YTD is -226.09
Loads of class racing later, the problem is which races to look at.

P.s I’m really focused on racing at the moment. Had a few personal issues this year with wife and the demon drink which has caused me and my family no end of bother , which lead me to be disinterested in racing a bit . Just getting things sorted in time for jump season and I’m enjoying it again . Revised my way of rating the other week and made some little changes. I’m happy at moment .

Won. SP 33/1.
Profit £396.
Monthly profit £337.

Sorry to hear about that Ralphie, hope you are ok and are recovering well. ?

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Windsor 13:20 Richard P Smith 3.5 / win     15:00 Wisper 3.7 / win             Pontefract 13:30 Coverdale 6.8 / win   All prices Smarkets
David says "good luck!"
 

0905 am
SPEEDY FAY FAY
Win
Is the mount of silvestre De Sousa
Gone to new yard and down to a winning mark given he won off 54 Jan 21.
SWEET ENCOUNTER
Win
Won well here on debut gets stall 14 so will have to come from off the pace rather than lead this time. But won easily on debut.

RI thistledown knights key nap 
R2 star entertainer 
R7 lionixtic
 
 
 

Nottingham. 
Ralph Becketts 2 year old. 
Single. 
1.10. Artistic Star.      22/1... 1st 
Good luck all. 

I backed it at 4/11 and the SP was 2/13 so excellent value with an edge of 18%.
People don't get excited when a 13/2 shot wins so why the shock when a 2/13 shot loses ?

150 selections 93 winners 65points profit 63 % strike rate 
R2 Santa Anita Mercy Mercy 7/2 won
claimed then won for new yard looking comfortable winning. Hopefully the is more improvement to come
3)Race 4 Off Good Report 5/2 lost
Won pulling clear last time beating a few of these. Has a good chance of following up
2)R5 See Through It 11/10 NB 11/10 won
Won pulling clear last time big chance
R7 Square cat 9/4
closing fast last time hopefully is more wise this time
4)R9 Thorn house 6/5 2nd
pulled clear last time looks good enough to follow up
1)R10 Reincarnate nap 5/6 2ndjennings
just got beat last time In a good time
Bob Baffert on a Monday night is a tip in itself 
 
 

R3 Thistledown Blushing Bettie 10/11 nap pulled clear beating most of these last time. Looks to have a good chance of following up won
R4 Thistledown Scarrazano 11/8 came 3rd last time by 1/2 length,got bumped on corner should go close won
 

Saturday afternoon is always football first but Saturday night sees no fewer than 26 stakes & allowance races in US & Canada , good stuff ?
848 Belmont at the Big A - SHIPSATIONAL 5/4 ?
937 Gulfsteam - LITTLE BELITA 11/2 eway 4 th ?
1014 Keeneland - LOGGINS 3/1 2nd 
1045 Keeneland - CASA CREED 13/2 eway 4 th 
1106 Santa Anita - NEIGE BLANCHE 4/1 ? drifted out to 12's .
prices bet365 & b.o.g.
bad day in the Cesarewitch , here in the US & day out at the football , but hey ho , Breeders Cup in a month , keep powder dry until then it is October after all , as bad as April .