AlexD

It's the last 16 coming up this weekend. We start with the epic France versus Argentina on Saturday at 3pm BST before the intriguing encounter between Uruguay and Portugal at 7pm BST. On Sunday, we are then treated to 2010 champions Spain playing host nation Russia at 3pm BST. It is then the evenly balanced tie between Croatia and Denmark in the 7pm BST kick-off. Let us know your thoughts on these games. Loved the chat so far! 

While this is true, playing for a draw against a team who has nothing to lose and can only go through by pulling an unlikely upset win (which would most likely eliminate Brazil, or at least put their fate in the hands of Switzerland and Costa Rica) could turn out to be a dangerous gamble. Besides, anything short of a win for Brazil would cause further pressure on their team because, well, they're Brazil. I don't think their public will take kindly to them going through a group with two (potential) draws and a win against Costa Rica snatched in the stoppage time. While they have a different team and a new manager now (who has an impressive record so far), WC 2014 performance (even before getting humiliated by the Germans) is a wound that still hasn't fully healed yet, even after winning the tournament in the Olympics in Rio in 2016. Grinding their way though the group stages in a non-comfortable manner would be a painful reminder and a likely cause for panic or pressure.
On the other hand, in the press conference, Miranda declared that "Brazil are playing to top the group, not pick their next opponent", dismissing any ideas that they could be playing with playoff tree in mind.

There's that old saying that a rich man does not go yelling around that he's rich. Therefore, anytime I hear such "obvious" statements from the players, I put a small asterisk in my books, which means "don't be surprised if things go the other way".
So far, Brazil have been heading in the right direction in this tournament, improving their performance as time went by. What's different in their game against Serbia is that they're finally playing a team which will attack them rather than playing conservatively, a setting in which Brazil is supposed to shine and play their best game. It is for this reason that they're relishing the prospect of playing Serbia tonight. Also, the Serbian team is yet to demonstrate that their fitness level is appropriate for more than 70 minutes of play. Brazil has shown that they can get the job done in 10 inspired minutes, should it come to that.
I know I promised not to go into analyzing for these two games, but I thought you might find these points useful in your own analysis.

South Korea vs Germany
At every World Cup we always say the same. Write the Germans off at your peril. It has been the same here. Just when they looked down and out up pop the old reliable faces of Marco Reus and Toni Kroos to drag them back from the brink. Germany now need a win and a better margin of victory than Sweden in this 3pm BST kick-off against South Korea at the Kazan Arena in Kazan to guarantee qualification.
South Korea were my tips to really struggle in this group but they come into this final game still in with a shout of reaching the last 16. A win here and defeat for Sweden against Mexico would see Shin Tae-yong's men through to the second phase of the tournament. Two narrow defeats to Sweden and Mexico so far have shown glimpses of good football but they appear to lack a killer instinct.
Joachim Low's team will have all their focus on not only winning this game but potentially topping the group. In order for that to happen they need Sweden to beat Mexico but to then beat Sweden's margin of victory. Once again, the possible permutations are a nightmare but a win should see Germany qualify and potentially finish top of the group if results go their way.
Unfortunately, we've not see the best of Germany yet. Their performance against Mexico was dire and even though there was an improvement against Sweden they were still unconvincing. It feels like this Germany side is on borrowed time. If they come up against Brazil in the 2nd Round it could be a premature departure.
Still, one game at a time. They need to win this one to boost their chance of qualifying for the last 16. I think they will. I mean, come on, it's Germany. They always do the business when needed. I'm still not sold on them going further than the Quarter-Finals but they showed against Sweden that they are not short on fight and they will need that here. A vintage business-like display from the reigning world champions for me.
Germany -1 @ 1.62 with Coral
Germany to win to nil @ 1.95 with Betfred

Madness to think that a one goal win for Sweden and a two goal win for Germany will send Mexico home. Would be extremely harsh.
If I had to predict it I would be inclined to back the draw and you’d imagine it’ll be a low scoring affair. I think Mexico are rightly slight favourites due to their performances so far but if Sweden get their noses in front I’d fancy them to hang on. I just don’t see Mexico winning all three group games.

Serbia vs Switzerland
As expected, this is the most important game of our WC campaign.
It's needless to say that I'm super stoked for this one, and can't wait for the kick-off.
The game will most likely be a bloodshed and lack excitement in terms of beautiful plays. The weather in Kaliningrad is rainy since this morning, and with both teams already being expected to commit a lot of fouls and bookings, Felix Brych being picked as the referee doesn't help on this plan at all, as he is prone to frequently calling fouls, which will interrupt the play even more. This game is bound to be a nail-biter for the fans of both teams from start to finish, and likely a dull encounter for unbiased enthusiasts tuning in.
Red card given has already been discussed a lot on this thread so I won't go further into that topic, but looking for value in yellow card bets should be a good place to start when looking for profits in this one.
As for picking the winner, this is anyone's game, with the Swiss having the luxury of being able to afford a draw, while such an outcome for the Serbian team puts them in a highly unfavorable position of needing to get point(s) in their final game against Brazil, which is a hard task for any team, even more so after a draw in their first game vs Switzerland.
Given my unfortunate circumstances which led to being forced to bet locally for the remainder of this World Cup, my betting strategy needs to constantly adapt to looking for value in the ever-changing odds at the local bookies. The odds on this game have switched places compared to before the WC started, with now Serbia being labeled favorites @ 2.6, draw being valued @ 3.0, and the Swiss being slight underdogs @ 3.0. I, therefore, see no value in betting on Serbia, given that the Swiss team is better ranked, has a batter match/result form prior to this WC, and (at least on paper) a draw against Brazil is a bigger achievement than beating Costa Rica. This leads me to think that there is value in double chance on Switzerland, combined with total goals scored under 2.5, given a likely rigid and careful start to the game from both sides, at least until a goal happens.
Disclaimer: Please note that I am biased for this game and am prepared to lose this bet in exchange for seeing our team play in the playoffs.
We should expect a hard-fought battle in the midfield from both sides, as well as strong, disciplined and committed defenses.
On the defensive end, while both sides have given good performances in their opening games, the credit has to go to the Swiss team as their defensive effort was very impressive against Brazil. If they can repeat that in tonight's game, and Serbia doesn't find a way to improve on their inspiration from the game vs Costa Rica, they could easily and up with a clean sheet. 

Both teams have some solid individuals in the middle of the pitch, with Serbia maybe having slightly more potential in their passing game, if Matić, Milinković-Savić and Milivojević put on another solid performance. There's also news that Ajax have completed a record signing of Tadić, so I wonder if that should motivate him to give a great performance, or if his mind will be elsewhere.

Serbia's team is one of the tallest in this World Cup, so they should have advantage in aerial duels, and pose a threat from set pieces, should they be given a chance to do so. This could work in our favor, given that the weather in Kaliningrad is rainy today, which, combined with likely-frequent calls by the ref could lead to a lot of long balls and headers rather than playing the ball to the feet, which I think both sides prefer to do. After that banger in the first round, Kolarov should be expected to cause trouble for the Swiss if there happens to be a set piece.
The outcome of this game could well come down to who performs better in corner kicks or set pieces.
I expect the biggest threats to Serbian goal to come from the shots from outside or mixups in the area after corner kicks or set pieces. Unfortunately, there are no markets here for such bets, but having a small stake on Swiss to score from outside the box might be a fun yet quite plausible bet.
I see no value on HT draw at given odds, as an early goal from a set piece could open up this game, making anything possible, depending on which side scores that goal. Perhaps a goalless half time yet again, keeping up with the trend so far.
Finally, if any of you have access to some crazy offers like game is going to be interrupted or such, do not be surprised if they hit. Local bookies have withdrawn such offers for this game, which is curious. One never knows what to expect from crazy Serbian fans on one side, and Albanians cheering for Switzerland on the other (this topic was covered in one of my previous posts).
To conclude - this game could go either way, so I might as well go for a win-win and pick the outcomes that do not favor the chances of my team advancing to the playoffs, while staying in the domain of plausible, of course (at least in such scenario I'll have a budget to drown my sorrow). While Serbia is expected to push more for a goal and has the individual potential to do so, the Swiss are more than capable to holding them off, and they'll certainly try to bag one or two in given the chance.
Singles:
Serbia not to win (double chance - Switzerland) combined with total goals scored under 2.5 @ 2.00 (local)
Switzerland to score 1 or 2 goals @ 1.75 (local)
Over 3.5 bookings (yellow+red) @ 1.7 (local)
Red Card given: Yes @ 5.5 (Unibet) - courtesy of @Mindfulness
Aleksandar Mitrovic to be sent off @ 23.00 (B365) - courtesy of @waynecoyne
CS 0:0 @ 6.75 (local) [aren't we due for one in this WC anyway?]
Accumulator bets:
Brazil to win and total goals scored over 1.5
Switzerland X2 and total goals scored under 2.5
Total odds @ 3.00 (local)
Brazil HT/FT + total goals scored 3-5
Iceland DNB
Switzerland to score 1 or 2 goals
Total odds @ 7.75 (local)
PS - Sorry for the long rant again, it's a product of pregame anxiety!

Denmark vs Australia
I was somewhat disappointed with the way Denmark performed in their opener game, but then again, first round matches tend to be more rigid and a lot of teams are inclined to play play it safe, so to speak. Their defense was solid for the majority of the game, and lived up to their reputation of being a tough nut to crack on most days. It's their attack that I expected to perform better and show more creativity in the final third of the pitch. I believe that this could change on Thursday, as the team should now be past the anxiety surrounding their first World Cup game, and with three points in the bag, they should be more relaxed and will be looking to secure their spot in the playoffs instead of looking for their ticket in the final game vs France.
On the other hand, Australia did better than most have expected in their game vs France, but in my opinion it is more thanks to the uninspired performance by the French than their own. They've been known to put on a good fight and show even when they've been eliminated in the group stage, so they'll certainly be no pushovers. That being said, Aussies tend to be very physical and not afraid of full-contact play in pretty much any sport, and football is no exception, even if they team may be lacking quality compared to some. This means that they're more than capable of frustrating the opposition with strong marking and aerial duels, and they've demonstrated that vs France who, for some reason, chose to play more long passes than I would've expected.
In the end, I think that Denmark should have enough quality in the back to prevent any upsets from the Aussie team, and, depending on how inspired Eriksen & Co. will be up front with their ball movement and distribution, they should be able to bag 2 or 3, and secure their playoff spot, should there not be any upsets in the other game of Group C.
Unfortunately, it seems that I'll be forced to bet locally for the remainder of the World Cup, so posting odds will be of little use here.
That being said, I'm inclined towards Denmark to win and total goals scored between 2 and 4.
France vs Peru
France had an uninspired performance vs Australia in their first game, which led to a very frustrating game for them, and they'll be happy with their three points as they could've easily been held to a draw by the Aussies. If they intend to live up to their expectations from this cup, as well as expectations of their fans, they'll need to step it up in their subsequent games. On the other hand, France is often one of those teams who build their form as the tournaments progress, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them perform much better in their second game of the World Cup, even though Peru should be a much tougher opposition on paper, and in their first game they've definitely shown that there is quality in their squad.
On the other hand, for the majority of the match, Peru vs Denmark was anyone's game, and Peru will be kicking themselves over that missed penalty, but also over not starting their aging legend Paolo Guerrero, who demonstrated that he still has a lot to offer to his national team even after a lengthy suspension. In my opinion, Peru put on a solid game against Denmark, and had shown that their reputation of being a hard team to score against is well-founded. After that loss, however, they've got nothing to lose as the defeat against France will send them packing their bags early.
If Peru changes their lineup somewhat and starts Guerrero, and if France ups their game after managing to snatch the important three points off their nervous first game performance, both of which I expect to happen, we should have an exciting game to watch. Peru will be looking to survive in this tournament, and France will be looking to secure another 3 points. I think that France will be able to put on a good display and secure their playoff spot, allowing them to rest some players in the third game, possibly even do some calculations (both of which wouldn't be the first time we see them do) because winners of the Group D are all but unknown after Argentina failed to secure three points vs Iceland.
This win won't come without a fight, however.
France to win and BTTS
Just for fun - a small-stake bet on CS France - Peru 2:1.

While I agree with most of the predictions by @StevieDay1983, in the light of the events which took place in this group in the last round, I'll refrain from analyzing performances of the teams involved, as well as the games that take place tomorrow.
Game 1
Switzerland to win @ 1.85
Switzerland to win to nil @ 2.58
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.72
Game 2
Brazil to win and BTTS @ 3.65
Best of luck!

Serbia vs Switzerland
As expected, this is the most important game of our WC campaign.
It's needless to say that I'm super stoked for this one, and can't wait for the kick-off.
The game will most likely be a bloodshed and lack excitement in terms of beautiful plays. The weather in Kaliningrad is rainy since this morning, and with both teams already being expected to commit a lot of fouls and bookings, Felix Brych being picked as the referee doesn't help on this plan at all, as he is prone to frequently calling fouls, which will interrupt the play even more. This game is bound to be a nail-biter for the fans of both teams from start to finish, and likely a dull encounter for unbiased enthusiasts tuning in.
Red card given has already been discussed a lot on this thread so I won't go further into that topic, but looking for value in yellow card bets should be a good place to start when looking for profits in this one.
As for picking the winner, this is anyone's game, with the Swiss having the luxury of being able to afford a draw, while such an outcome for the Serbian team puts them in a highly unfavorable position of needing to get point(s) in their final game against Brazil, which is a hard task for any team, even more so after a draw in their first game vs Switzerland.
Given my unfortunate circumstances which led to being forced to bet locally for the remainder of this World Cup, my betting strategy needs to constantly adapt to looking for value in the ever-changing odds at the local bookies. The odds on this game have switched places compared to before the WC started, with now Serbia being labeled favorites @ 2.6, draw being valued @ 3.0, and the Swiss being slight underdogs @ 3.0. I, therefore, see no value in betting on Serbia, given that the Swiss team is better ranked, has a batter match/result form prior to this WC, and (at least on paper) a draw against Brazil is a bigger achievement than beating Costa Rica. This leads me to think that there is value in double chance on Switzerland, combined with total goals scored under 2.5, given a likely rigid and careful start to the game from both sides, at least until a goal happens.
Disclaimer: Please note that I am biased for this game and am prepared to lose this bet in exchange for seeing our team play in the playoffs.
We should expect a hard-fought battle in the midfield from both sides, as well as strong, disciplined and committed defenses.
On the defensive end, while both sides have given good performances in their opening games, the credit has to go to the Swiss team as their defensive effort was very impressive against Brazil. If they can repeat that in tonight's game, and Serbia doesn't find a way to improve on their inspiration from the game vs Costa Rica, they could easily and up with a clean sheet. 

Both teams have some solid individuals in the middle of the pitch, with Serbia maybe having slightly more potential in their passing game, if Matić, Milinković-Savić and Milivojević put on another solid performance. There's also news that Ajax have completed a record signing of Tadić, so I wonder if that should motivate him to give a great performance, or if his mind will be elsewhere.

Serbia's team is one of the tallest in this World Cup, so they should have advantage in aerial duels, and pose a threat from set pieces, should they be given a chance to do so. This could work in our favor, given that the weather in Kaliningrad is rainy today, which, combined with likely-frequent calls by the ref could lead to a lot of long balls and headers rather than playing the ball to the feet, which I think both sides prefer to do. After that banger in the first round, Kolarov should be expected to cause trouble for the Swiss if there happens to be a set piece.
The outcome of this game could well come down to who performs better in corner kicks or set pieces.
I expect the biggest threats to Serbian goal to come from the shots from outside or mixups in the area after corner kicks or set pieces. Unfortunately, there are no markets here for such bets, but having a small stake on Swiss to score from outside the box might be a fun yet quite plausible bet.
I see no value on HT draw at given odds, as an early goal from a set piece could open up this game, making anything possible, depending on which side scores that goal. Perhaps a goalless half time yet again, keeping up with the trend so far.
Finally, if any of you have access to some crazy offers like game is going to be interrupted or such, do not be surprised if they hit. Local bookies have withdrawn such offers for this game, which is curious. One never knows what to expect from crazy Serbian fans on one side, and Albanians cheering for Switzerland on the other (this topic was covered in one of my previous posts).
To conclude - this game could go either way, so I might as well go for a win-win and pick the outcomes that do not favor the chances of my team advancing to the playoffs, while staying in the domain of plausible, of course (at least in such scenario I'll have a budget to drown my sorrow). While Serbia is expected to push more for a goal and has the individual potential to do so, the Swiss are more than capable to holding them off, and they'll certainly try to bag one or two in given the chance.
Singles:
Serbia not to win (double chance - Switzerland) combined with total goals scored under 2.5 @ 2.00 (local)
Switzerland to score 1 or 2 goals @ 1.75 (local)
Over 3.5 bookings (yellow+red) @ 1.7 (local)
Red Card given: Yes @ 5.5 (Unibet) - courtesy of @Mindfulness
Aleksandar Mitrovic to be sent off @ 23.00 (B365) - courtesy of @waynecoyne
CS 0:0 @ 6.75 (local) [aren't we due for one in this WC anyway?]
Accumulator bets:
Brazil to win and total goals scored over 1.5
Switzerland X2 and total goals scored under 2.5
Total odds @ 3.00 (local)
Brazil HT/FT + total goals scored 3-5
Iceland DNB
Switzerland to score 1 or 2 goals
Total odds @ 7.75 (local)
PS - Sorry for the long rant again, it's a product of pregame anxiety!

Serbia vs Switzerland
As expected, this is the most important game of our WC campaign.
It's needless to say that I'm super stoked for this one, and can't wait for the kick-off.
The game will most likely be a bloodshed and lack excitement in terms of beautiful plays. The weather in Kaliningrad is rainy since this morning, and with both teams already being expected to commit a lot of fouls and bookings, Felix Brych being picked as the referee doesn't help on this plan at all, as he is prone to frequently calling fouls, which will interrupt the play even more. This game is bound to be a nail-biter for the fans of both teams from start to finish, and likely a dull encounter for unbiased enthusiasts tuning in.
Red card given has already been discussed a lot on this thread so I won't go further into that topic, but looking for value in yellow card bets should be a good place to start when looking for profits in this one.
As for picking the winner, this is anyone's game, with the Swiss having the luxury of being able to afford a draw, while such an outcome for the Serbian team puts them in a highly unfavorable position of needing to get point(s) in their final game against Brazil, which is a hard task for any team, even more so after a draw in their first game vs Switzerland.
Given my unfortunate circumstances which led to being forced to bet locally for the remainder of this World Cup, my betting strategy needs to constantly adapt to looking for value in the ever-changing odds at the local bookies. The odds on this game have switched places compared to before the WC started, with now Serbia being labeled favorites @ 2.6, draw being valued @ 3.0, and the Swiss being slight underdogs @ 3.0. I, therefore, see no value in betting on Serbia, given that the Swiss team is better ranked, has a batter match/result form prior to this WC, and (at least on paper) a draw against Brazil is a bigger achievement than beating Costa Rica. This leads me to think that there is value in double chance on Switzerland, combined with total goals scored under 2.5, given a likely rigid and careful start to the game from both sides, at least until a goal happens.
Disclaimer: Please note that I am biased for this game and am prepared to lose this bet in exchange for seeing our team play in the playoffs.
We should expect a hard-fought battle in the midfield from both sides, as well as strong, disciplined and committed defenses.
On the defensive end, while both sides have given good performances in their opening games, the credit has to go to the Swiss team as their defensive effort was very impressive against Brazil. If they can repeat that in tonight's game, and Serbia doesn't find a way to improve on their inspiration from the game vs Costa Rica, they could easily and up with a clean sheet. 

Both teams have some solid individuals in the middle of the pitch, with Serbia maybe having slightly more potential in their passing game, if Matić, Milinković-Savić and Milivojević put on another solid performance. There's also news that Ajax have completed a record signing of Tadić, so I wonder if that should motivate him to give a great performance, or if his mind will be elsewhere.

Serbia's team is one of the tallest in this World Cup, so they should have advantage in aerial duels, and pose a threat from set pieces, should they be given a chance to do so. This could work in our favor, given that the weather in Kaliningrad is rainy today, which, combined with likely-frequent calls by the ref could lead to a lot of long balls and headers rather than playing the ball to the feet, which I think both sides prefer to do. After that banger in the first round, Kolarov should be expected to cause trouble for the Swiss if there happens to be a set piece.
The outcome of this game could well come down to who performs better in corner kicks or set pieces.
I expect the biggest threats to Serbian goal to come from the shots from outside or mixups in the area after corner kicks or set pieces. Unfortunately, there are no markets here for such bets, but having a small stake on Swiss to score from outside the box might be a fun yet quite plausible bet.
I see no value on HT draw at given odds, as an early goal from a set piece could open up this game, making anything possible, depending on which side scores that goal. Perhaps a goalless half time yet again, keeping up with the trend so far.
Finally, if any of you have access to some crazy offers like game is going to be interrupted or such, do not be surprised if they hit. Local bookies have withdrawn such offers for this game, which is curious. One never knows what to expect from crazy Serbian fans on one side, and Albanians cheering for Switzerland on the other (this topic was covered in one of my previous posts).
To conclude - this game could go either way, so I might as well go for a win-win and pick the outcomes that do not favor the chances of my team advancing to the playoffs, while staying in the domain of plausible, of course (at least in such scenario I'll have a budget to drown my sorrow). While Serbia is expected to push more for a goal and has the individual potential to do so, the Swiss are more than capable to holding them off, and they'll certainly try to bag one or two in given the chance.
Singles:
Serbia not to win (double chance - Switzerland) combined with total goals scored under 2.5 @ 2.00 (local)
Switzerland to score 1 or 2 goals @ 1.75 (local)
Over 3.5 bookings (yellow+red) @ 1.7 (local)
Red Card given: Yes @ 5.5 (Unibet) - courtesy of @Mindfulness
Aleksandar Mitrovic to be sent off @ 23.00 (B365) - courtesy of @waynecoyne
CS 0:0 @ 6.75 (local) [aren't we due for one in this WC anyway?]
Accumulator bets:
Brazil to win and total goals scored over 1.5
Switzerland X2 and total goals scored under 2.5
Total odds @ 3.00 (local)
Brazil HT/FT + total goals scored 3-5
Iceland DNB
Switzerland to score 1 or 2 goals
Total odds @ 7.75 (local)
PS - Sorry for the long rant again, it's a product of pregame anxiety!

Excuse the lack of write-ups, it's been a manic week on my end. Incoming research with some potential value picks as I have yet to throw any money on them yet.
Serbia - Switzerland
I find value in Switzerland win simply due to their organization and resistance to conceding goals.
fivethirtyeight have Switzerland at 42% chance of winning and the odds of 3.1 indicate value in backing Switzerland. Of course, this is football and the stats don't always explain the performances (Croatia, Iceland and many more 'upsets'). This is simply sniping for value.
I reckon this game can go either way and it will be a midfield battle. Serbia's midfield edges Switzerland's, personally, and it would be interesting to see how they match up.
Behrami (MOTM for Switzerland vs Brazil) might be out due to a knock vs Brazil. Zakaria is a capable player of filling that role but starting Behrami is a no-brainer. Should he get a yellow card and the Swiss pick up a result here, he will be available for the second round.
Lots of value in the cards here. I personally took Shaqiri @ 3.4 and Kolarov @ 3.6 to be carded any time. Shaqiri can be petulant and of course, we have the historical tension between both teams. Furthermore, both teams attack predominantly on the right (42% for Switzerland vs Brazil) as Xherdan is their talisman and playmaker.
Tadic vs Rodriguez will be a good battle too but unfortunately Tadic has been erratic over the past two seasons. He came into form during the end of the season and I can see him linking up with SMS in midfield nicely. He also is an excellent distributor of the ball into the box but alas, Mitrovic needs to find his scoring boots again.
Lichsteiner made me some money vs Brazil but I think he might be a bit more careful here.
Matic, Dzemaili and Xhaka also candidates to get booked. Dzemaili had the 'destroyer' role vs Brazil, looking to disrupt passing lanes and get into the players. I can see him getting carded again should he be trusted with this role again. Xhaka has made me a decent penny in EPL, with his yellow cards and another booking tonight would not surprise me, @ 2.6 anytime card.
The U2.5 is 1.53 with some of my mates calling it a 'banker' and I would agree. Both teams have solid defenses and poor attacking strengths. I would prefer waiting for the first goal and then playing the U2.5, provided it comes in the first half which is also unlikely.
The average height of the Serbs could very well see them score from a set piece and negate Switzerland.
I like the look of HT X @ 1.83 and @betcatalog's footballing nous speaks for itself; tailing this.
This game can go either way and I will be scrutinizing it mainly due to the score predictor game I am playing where I am currently top 500 in the world and it's games like these that separate the boys from men.
 
Brazil - Costa Rica
Not a lot of value in this game for me so this write up will be short.
I am secretly hoping Neymar doesn't play as predicted due to injury, allowing Coutinho to slot into his role on LW where he thrives for me. He can draw quite a few fouls here and Gamboa and Acosta will have a handful to deal with. Acosta anytime booking @ 2.9 is decent. Looking at the odds, Watson @ 1.8 to be booked is one of the lowest prices I've come across. Finally, Casemiro to be booked is 2.5. This came through last game and he might pick up a card to miss the final game as Brazil should wrap this up in a tidy fashion. Casemiro also made me a lot of money in CL with his tendency to pick up cards but this would depend on Costa Rica possession and as such I may abstain from this.
For me, Brazil are winning this 2-0 with Neymar and perhaps more without him. Their sheer reliance on him is annoying as it's one dimensional and they don't move the ball quick enough. Belgium have the same problem with Hazard. 
No value in EH markets, HT markets or even the over/under as anything could happen but I see Costa Rica parking the bus and Brazil killing off the game between 45-60th minute.
 
 
 

Serbia V Switzerland
Red Card given: Yes @ 5.5 Unibet
I was already considering an anytime red card play here but was completely unaware of the political background to this fixture until I read @AlexD's post. The Kosovo / Serbia context may well be an added inflammatory factor but the game will already be on a knife edge as the outcome should go some way to deciding who qualifies from the group. I think the most important thing to consider is that both these teams have players who are card magnets and I'm always half expecting a sending off when I see either of them play. So to have them playing each other along with all the other factors mentioned...
The total cards markets look to be priced correctly for this game and offer no added value in my view. However, 'Red Card given: Yes' looks generous @ 5.5 with Unibet so I will get involved.
 

Very happy! Congrats on your predictions, you were spot-on with your bets on this game!
It was nice to finally see a cohesive midfield on our team and I personally am glad to see Sergej Milinković-Savić put a solid performance and work well with Matić and Milivojević, being a very late addition to this squad (due to the issues with the former manager, unfortunately). It's been a long time since we've had a solid midfield lineup, and our defense seems solid as well, though not ideal. Overall, people here are very happy with our first performance, though most of us have been preparing for a much worse outcome, so there's also that. The biggest problem in my opinion (which I mentioned in my first post) still remains an issue, however - our striker isn't the brightest fish in the sea, and he needs plenty of chances to make one count, and there won't be plenty versus the much tougher Brazil and Swiss squads. For this reason, one of the guys behind him will need to step up and shine in those two games if we're to hope to get something out of them. Some of them definitely have the potential to do so, and it will definitely be interesting to see if they will.
However, that draw between Brazil and the Switzerland was a rain on our parade.
It all comes down to the Friday clash with Switzerland now which, from what we've seen so far, could be anyone's game, and will likely be a tight contest with only a few opportunities to make a difference.
I am undecided on what to bet on at the moment. However, for those interested in doing so, it is worth noting that this will be an emotional match for both sides. This is because of the well-known Kosovo dispute. As some of you may have noticed, plenty of players on the Swiss team were born in, or originate from Kosovo (and some from Albania), and will surely be extra motivated for this game. On the other hand, Kosovo is, obviously, a very emotional topic for the Serbs as well, so any good result in clashes versus any team related to Albania or Kosovo always counts as a double.
I am certain that this will be almost as big motivator for both sides as points and the prospects of advancing to the next round for those who snatch a win. The atmosphere in the stands could likely be heated and not short of provocation from both sides. We are likely to see plenty of Kosovo and some greater Albania flags among the Swiss fans (as was the case in quite a few events in the past, probably the most famous one being the drone incident in the Euro 2016 qualifiers). Serbs, on the other hand, will likely respond with some well-known chants, backed by the local Russian fans with whom we have brotherly relations.
Our first-choice striker Aleksandar Mitrović has a reputation for being hot-headed and being prone to doing something stupid out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he allows some attempts at provocation to get to his head. I haven't checked the odds yet, but having a small stake on a red card in this game might be a worthwhile consideration, with him being the first choice.
Other than that, I'll let the things settle some more before deciding on any serious bets on this game. I'm inclined towards a low-scoring game, but that could be risky if our team decides to risk and go all in instead of hoping for a result from a game vs Brazil, which I'm sure will try to step up their game in the next two fixtures. So, perhaps a goalless first half instead.
I'll post my picks at a later date, should I find anything worthwhile.

Argentina vs Croatia
I, personally, am super excited for this one!
This is, in my opinion, one of the three biggest fixtures in this round of the group stages, the other two being Serbia vs Switzerland (bias or not, this one will be bloody!) and Colombia vs Poland (because one of the two will be packing their bags early after this one).
I'll start off by saying that this game is really hard to predict, as I believe we haven't seen the true potential of neither of the teams involved in their opening fixtures. Argentina was held to a draw by the brave Iceland team, who have once again demonstrated how disciplined and hard working they are able to be, especially in the games against huge favorites. On the other hand while the Argentinian team didn't necessarily play that bad, I felt like some of the players were seriously hindering the play - rare, well-built plays that had the potential to throw off the opposition's defense and create a chance for a goal were frequently sabotaged by the moments of individual silliness, causing further frustration for the Argentinians as the game progressed. Ever Banega was leading the pack in this, and I don't know whether it was lack of flair or play vision or just plain frustration caused by the disciplined Iceland players, but in my opinion, his playtime should be seriously reconsidered after that performance, as now Argentina do not have the luxury to waste goal opportunities. I also wonder why Paulo Dybala wasn't given a chance to play in place of (or as a substitute for) Mazza, but then I've heard that there's some disagreements with Messi (which I am yet to confirm to be true). If this rumor turns out to be true, it could mean that the atmosphere in the Argentinian team is not ideal, and that could cause problems later on, especially if the team starts underperforming. Could Argentina turn out to be a loose cannon?
It should be noted that disciplined defensive teams like Iceland and Iran are a nightmare to play against and demand an entirely different approach to the game for the favorites, as was demonstrated by Argentina, and Spain last night (and will be by Portugal next week, but that's another topic). If they're not opened up early, the attackers will get more and more frustrated causing their chances of snatching a win to drop as the game progresses. The game vs Iceland may turn out to be the hardest pill to swallow for the Argentinians, or any other team in Group D for that matter, and they may end up being happy they got to do so early on.
Speaking of loose cannons, let's move on to Croatia, a team of amazing individual quality with one serious drawback - they're a team from the Balkans. Trust me, as a person from another Balkan nation, every single team from this region suffers from the same illness, which is oscillatory mental approach to the games by the players. You just never know if and when a fight between some of the players on the team may break out, leading to forming of the several groups in the national team, which shows on the pitch and hurts their play. Or, the team may win and decide to spend the night in a club getting drunk and partying with escorts. Another recognizable trait for this region is that teams tend to get extra motivated and perform great in big games where they're labeled as the underdogs or even given no chance, while they can every now and then get complacent against weaker opposition, expecting that they'll win just by showing up and dropping points as a consequence. This means that the form (perhaps consistency is a more appropriate term) of the teams may be very unpredictable. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Croatia was to beat Argentina with relative ease, only to lose to Iceland (or Nigeria, but this didn't happen) the next day. On a good day, they're more than capable to cause all sorts of upsets vs any given opposition. This is why people from the Balkans believe that their team needs a safety factor of 2.0 when it comes to the quality of their team, if they're to expect a result with confidence.
Nigeria was a team which I almost labeled as the potential dark horses in my books based on their squad and form before the World Cup, but seeing them play against Serbia (who, at the time, just appointed an inexperienced coach and were struggling with choice of a formation and lineup from game to game) gave me an insight in what was likely to happen in their WC campaign, and was later confirmed in their game against Croatia - they're uninspired and not very creative, and I see them struggling to do well in this group. Actually, Nigeria finishing with 0 points in this group wouldn't surprise me at all, unless something changes drastically in their subsequent games. One drawback from this is that we cannot be certain how strong and cohesive Croatia is in this tournament yet - a similar case to Argentina, but for different reasons.
As I've already mentioned, Iceland and Nigeria aren't really representative measurements of what Argentina and Croatia are able to do. However, I do believe that the current prices given by most of the bookies favor the Argentinians too much over Croatia with no arguments to back that up yet. I'd be surprised if Croatia didn't put in a good effort, just like they tend to usually do against the biggest teams.
I see both teams scoring in this game. The hardest battle will be fought in the midfield and will be exciting to follow, but both sides have players who are more than capable of producing a moment of brilliance, which in these games is often enough to lead to a goal. I expect Croatia to be stronger on the defensive end, and Argentina up front. Argentina will be looking for a win, which would allow them to enter their final game vs Nigeria more relaxed and play their game to the fullest, while Croatia will be satisfied even with a draw, but do not be fooled for a second to think that they'll settle for it if they're given a chance to grab all three points. Plus, they have played Iceland twice in their qualifying group and are, by now, most certainly aware of how tricky that game could be if they end up needing to fight for their playoff spot in their final game.
I think I'll stay away from betting on a winner on this game, but if I had to, I would take the value in odds on Croatia DNB or double chance.
BTTS @ 2.0 sounds too good not to take.
To make it an even more interesting game to watch, I'm considering HT CS 0:0 and BTTS in the 2nd half

Argentina vs Croatia
I, personally, am super excited for this one!
This is, in my opinion, one of the three biggest fixtures in this round of the group stages, the other two being Serbia vs Switzerland (bias or not, this one will be bloody!) and Colombia vs Poland (because one of the two will be packing their bags early after this one).
I'll start off by saying that this game is really hard to predict, as I believe we haven't seen the true potential of neither of the teams involved in their opening fixtures. Argentina was held to a draw by the brave Iceland team, who have once again demonstrated how disciplined and hard working they are able to be, especially in the games against huge favorites. On the other hand while the Argentinian team didn't necessarily play that bad, I felt like some of the players were seriously hindering the play - rare, well-built plays that had the potential to throw off the opposition's defense and create a chance for a goal were frequently sabotaged by the moments of individual silliness, causing further frustration for the Argentinians as the game progressed. Ever Banega was leading the pack in this, and I don't know whether it was lack of flair or play vision or just plain frustration caused by the disciplined Iceland players, but in my opinion, his playtime should be seriously reconsidered after that performance, as now Argentina do not have the luxury to waste goal opportunities. I also wonder why Paulo Dybala wasn't given a chance to play in place of (or as a substitute for) Mazza, but then I've heard that there's some disagreements with Messi (which I am yet to confirm to be true). If this rumor turns out to be true, it could mean that the atmosphere in the Argentinian team is not ideal, and that could cause problems later on, especially if the team starts underperforming. Could Argentina turn out to be a loose cannon?
It should be noted that disciplined defensive teams like Iceland and Iran are a nightmare to play against and demand an entirely different approach to the game for the favorites, as was demonstrated by Argentina, and Spain last night (and will be by Portugal next week, but that's another topic). If they're not opened up early, the attackers will get more and more frustrated causing their chances of snatching a win to drop as the game progresses. The game vs Iceland may turn out to be the hardest pill to swallow for the Argentinians, or any other team in Group D for that matter, and they may end up being happy they got to do so early on.
Speaking of loose cannons, let's move on to Croatia, a team of amazing individual quality with one serious drawback - they're a team from the Balkans. Trust me, as a person from another Balkan nation, every single team from this region suffers from the same illness, which is oscillatory mental approach to the games by the players. You just never know if and when a fight between some of the players on the team may break out, leading to forming of the several groups in the national team, which shows on the pitch and hurts their play. Or, the team may win and decide to spend the night in a club getting drunk and partying with escorts. Another recognizable trait for this region is that teams tend to get extra motivated and perform great in big games where they're labeled as the underdogs or even given no chance, while they can every now and then get complacent against weaker opposition, expecting that they'll win just by showing up and dropping points as a consequence. This means that the form (perhaps consistency is a more appropriate term) of the teams may be very unpredictable. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Croatia was to beat Argentina with relative ease, only to lose to Iceland (or Nigeria, but this didn't happen) the next day. On a good day, they're more than capable to cause all sorts of upsets vs any given opposition. This is why people from the Balkans believe that their team needs a safety factor of 2.0 when it comes to the quality of their team, if they're to expect a result with confidence.
Nigeria was a team which I almost labeled as the potential dark horses in my books based on their squad and form before the World Cup, but seeing them play against Serbia (who, at the time, just appointed an inexperienced coach and were struggling with choice of a formation and lineup from game to game) gave me an insight in what was likely to happen in their WC campaign, and was later confirmed in their game against Croatia - they're uninspired and not very creative, and I see them struggling to do well in this group. Actually, Nigeria finishing with 0 points in this group wouldn't surprise me at all, unless something changes drastically in their subsequent games. One drawback from this is that we cannot be certain how strong and cohesive Croatia is in this tournament yet - a similar case to Argentina, but for different reasons.
As I've already mentioned, Iceland and Nigeria aren't really representative measurements of what Argentina and Croatia are able to do. However, I do believe that the current prices given by most of the bookies favor the Argentinians too much over Croatia with no arguments to back that up yet. I'd be surprised if Croatia didn't put in a good effort, just like they tend to usually do against the biggest teams.
I see both teams scoring in this game. The hardest battle will be fought in the midfield and will be exciting to follow, but both sides have players who are more than capable of producing a moment of brilliance, which in these games is often enough to lead to a goal. I expect Croatia to be stronger on the defensive end, and Argentina up front. Argentina will be looking for a win, which would allow them to enter their final game vs Nigeria more relaxed and play their game to the fullest, while Croatia will be satisfied even with a draw, but do not be fooled for a second to think that they'll settle for it if they're given a chance to grab all three points. Plus, they have played Iceland twice in their qualifying group and are, by now, most certainly aware of how tricky that game could be if they end up needing to fight for their playoff spot in their final game.
I think I'll stay away from betting on a winner on this game, but if I had to, I would take the value in odds on Croatia DNB or double chance.
BTTS @ 2.0 sounds too good not to take.
To make it an even more interesting game to watch, I'm considering HT CS 0:0 and BTTS in the 2nd half

Argentina vs Croatia
I, personally, am super excited for this one!
This is, in my opinion, one of the three biggest fixtures in this round of the group stages, the other two being Serbia vs Switzerland (bias or not, this one will be bloody!) and Colombia vs Poland (because one of the two will be packing their bags early after this one).
I'll start off by saying that this game is really hard to predict, as I believe we haven't seen the true potential of neither of the teams involved in their opening fixtures. Argentina was held to a draw by the brave Iceland team, who have once again demonstrated how disciplined and hard working they are able to be, especially in the games against huge favorites. On the other hand while the Argentinian team didn't necessarily play that bad, I felt like some of the players were seriously hindering the play - rare, well-built plays that had the potential to throw off the opposition's defense and create a chance for a goal were frequently sabotaged by the moments of individual silliness, causing further frustration for the Argentinians as the game progressed. Ever Banega was leading the pack in this, and I don't know whether it was lack of flair or play vision or just plain frustration caused by the disciplined Iceland players, but in my opinion, his playtime should be seriously reconsidered after that performance, as now Argentina do not have the luxury to waste goal opportunities. I also wonder why Paulo Dybala wasn't given a chance to play in place of (or as a substitute for) Mazza, but then I've heard that there's some disagreements with Messi (which I am yet to confirm to be true). If this rumor turns out to be true, it could mean that the atmosphere in the Argentinian team is not ideal, and that could cause problems later on, especially if the team starts underperforming. Could Argentina turn out to be a loose cannon?
It should be noted that disciplined defensive teams like Iceland and Iran are a nightmare to play against and demand an entirely different approach to the game for the favorites, as was demonstrated by Argentina, and Spain last night (and will be by Portugal next week, but that's another topic). If they're not opened up early, the attackers will get more and more frustrated causing their chances of snatching a win to drop as the game progresses. The game vs Iceland may turn out to be the hardest pill to swallow for the Argentinians, or any other team in Group D for that matter, and they may end up being happy they got to do so early on.
Speaking of loose cannons, let's move on to Croatia, a team of amazing individual quality with one serious drawback - they're a team from the Balkans. Trust me, as a person from another Balkan nation, every single team from this region suffers from the same illness, which is oscillatory mental approach to the games by the players. You just never know if and when a fight between some of the players on the team may break out, leading to forming of the several groups in the national team, which shows on the pitch and hurts their play. Or, the team may win and decide to spend the night in a club getting drunk and partying with escorts. Another recognizable trait for this region is that teams tend to get extra motivated and perform great in big games where they're labeled as the underdogs or even given no chance, while they can every now and then get complacent against weaker opposition, expecting that they'll win just by showing up and dropping points as a consequence. This means that the form (perhaps consistency is a more appropriate term) of the teams may be very unpredictable. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Croatia was to beat Argentina with relative ease, only to lose to Iceland (or Nigeria, but this didn't happen) the next day. On a good day, they're more than capable to cause all sorts of upsets vs any given opposition. This is why people from the Balkans believe that their team needs a safety factor of 2.0 when it comes to the quality of their team, if they're to expect a result with confidence.
Nigeria was a team which I almost labeled as the potential dark horses in my books based on their squad and form before the World Cup, but seeing them play against Serbia (who, at the time, just appointed an inexperienced coach and were struggling with choice of a formation and lineup from game to game) gave me an insight in what was likely to happen in their WC campaign, and was later confirmed in their game against Croatia - they're uninspired and not very creative, and I see them struggling to do well in this group. Actually, Nigeria finishing with 0 points in this group wouldn't surprise me at all, unless something changes drastically in their subsequent games. One drawback from this is that we cannot be certain how strong and cohesive Croatia is in this tournament yet - a similar case to Argentina, but for different reasons.
As I've already mentioned, Iceland and Nigeria aren't really representative measurements of what Argentina and Croatia are able to do. However, I do believe that the current prices given by most of the bookies favor the Argentinians too much over Croatia with no arguments to back that up yet. I'd be surprised if Croatia didn't put in a good effort, just like they tend to usually do against the biggest teams.
I see both teams scoring in this game. The hardest battle will be fought in the midfield and will be exciting to follow, but both sides have players who are more than capable of producing a moment of brilliance, which in these games is often enough to lead to a goal. I expect Croatia to be stronger on the defensive end, and Argentina up front. Argentina will be looking for a win, which would allow them to enter their final game vs Nigeria more relaxed and play their game to the fullest, while Croatia will be satisfied even with a draw, but do not be fooled for a second to think that they'll settle for it if they're given a chance to grab all three points. Plus, they have played Iceland twice in their qualifying group and are, by now, most certainly aware of how tricky that game could be if they end up needing to fight for their playoff spot in their final game.
I think I'll stay away from betting on a winner on this game, but if I had to, I would take the value in odds on Croatia DNB or double chance.
BTTS @ 2.0 sounds too good not to take.
To make it an even more interesting game to watch, I'm considering HT CS 0:0 and BTTS in the 2nd half

This is shaping up nicely. Good luck, would love to see you hit this one early on!

Argentina vs Croatia
I, personally, am super excited for this one!
This is, in my opinion, one of the three biggest fixtures in this round of the group stages, the other two being Serbia vs Switzerland (bias or not, this one will be bloody!) and Colombia vs Poland (because one of the two will be packing their bags early after this one).
I'll start off by saying that this game is really hard to predict, as I believe we haven't seen the true potential of neither of the teams involved in their opening fixtures. Argentina was held to a draw by the brave Iceland team, who have once again demonstrated how disciplined and hard working they are able to be, especially in the games against huge favorites. On the other hand while the Argentinian team didn't necessarily play that bad, I felt like some of the players were seriously hindering the play - rare, well-built plays that had the potential to throw off the opposition's defense and create a chance for a goal were frequently sabotaged by the moments of individual silliness, causing further frustration for the Argentinians as the game progressed. Ever Banega was leading the pack in this, and I don't know whether it was lack of flair or play vision or just plain frustration caused by the disciplined Iceland players, but in my opinion, his playtime should be seriously reconsidered after that performance, as now Argentina do not have the luxury to waste goal opportunities. I also wonder why Paulo Dybala wasn't given a chance to play in place of (or as a substitute for) Mazza, but then I've heard that there's some disagreements with Messi (which I am yet to confirm to be true). If this rumor turns out to be true, it could mean that the atmosphere in the Argentinian team is not ideal, and that could cause problems later on, especially if the team starts underperforming. Could Argentina turn out to be a loose cannon?
It should be noted that disciplined defensive teams like Iceland and Iran are a nightmare to play against and demand an entirely different approach to the game for the favorites, as was demonstrated by Argentina, and Spain last night (and will be by Portugal next week, but that's another topic). If they're not opened up early, the attackers will get more and more frustrated causing their chances of snatching a win to drop as the game progresses. The game vs Iceland may turn out to be the hardest pill to swallow for the Argentinians, or any other team in Group D for that matter, and they may end up being happy they got to do so early on.
Speaking of loose cannons, let's move on to Croatia, a team of amazing individual quality with one serious drawback - they're a team from the Balkans. Trust me, as a person from another Balkan nation, every single team from this region suffers from the same illness, which is oscillatory mental approach to the games by the players. You just never know if and when a fight between some of the players on the team may break out, leading to forming of the several groups in the national team, which shows on the pitch and hurts their play. Or, the team may win and decide to spend the night in a club getting drunk and partying with escorts. Another recognizable trait for this region is that teams tend to get extra motivated and perform great in big games where they're labeled as the underdogs or even given no chance, while they can every now and then get complacent against weaker opposition, expecting that they'll win just by showing up and dropping points as a consequence. This means that the form (perhaps consistency is a more appropriate term) of the teams may be very unpredictable. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Croatia was to beat Argentina with relative ease, only to lose to Iceland (or Nigeria, but this didn't happen) the next day. On a good day, they're more than capable to cause all sorts of upsets vs any given opposition. This is why people from the Balkans believe that their team needs a safety factor of 2.0 when it comes to the quality of their team, if they're to expect a result with confidence.
Nigeria was a team which I almost labeled as the potential dark horses in my books based on their squad and form before the World Cup, but seeing them play against Serbia (who, at the time, just appointed an inexperienced coach and were struggling with choice of a formation and lineup from game to game) gave me an insight in what was likely to happen in their WC campaign, and was later confirmed in their game against Croatia - they're uninspired and not very creative, and I see them struggling to do well in this group. Actually, Nigeria finishing with 0 points in this group wouldn't surprise me at all, unless something changes drastically in their subsequent games. One drawback from this is that we cannot be certain how strong and cohesive Croatia is in this tournament yet - a similar case to Argentina, but for different reasons.
As I've already mentioned, Iceland and Nigeria aren't really representative measurements of what Argentina and Croatia are able to do. However, I do believe that the current prices given by most of the bookies favor the Argentinians too much over Croatia with no arguments to back that up yet. I'd be surprised if Croatia didn't put in a good effort, just like they tend to usually do against the biggest teams.
I see both teams scoring in this game. The hardest battle will be fought in the midfield and will be exciting to follow, but both sides have players who are more than capable of producing a moment of brilliance, which in these games is often enough to lead to a goal. I expect Croatia to be stronger on the defensive end, and Argentina up front. Argentina will be looking for a win, which would allow them to enter their final game vs Nigeria more relaxed and play their game to the fullest, while Croatia will be satisfied even with a draw, but do not be fooled for a second to think that they'll settle for it if they're given a chance to grab all three points. Plus, they have played Iceland twice in their qualifying group and are, by now, most certainly aware of how tricky that game could be if they end up needing to fight for their playoff spot in their final game.
I think I'll stay away from betting on a winner on this game, but if I had to, I would take the value in odds on Croatia DNB or double chance.
BTTS @ 2.0 sounds too good not to take.
To make it an even more interesting game to watch, I'm considering HT CS 0:0 and BTTS in the 2nd half

Denmark vs Australia
I was somewhat disappointed with the way Denmark performed in their opener game, but then again, first round matches tend to be more rigid and a lot of teams are inclined to play play it safe, so to speak. Their defense was solid for the majority of the game, and lived up to their reputation of being a tough nut to crack on most days. It's their attack that I expected to perform better and show more creativity in the final third of the pitch. I believe that this could change on Thursday, as the team should now be past the anxiety surrounding their first World Cup game, and with three points in the bag, they should be more relaxed and will be looking to secure their spot in the playoffs instead of looking for their ticket in the final game vs France.
On the other hand, Australia did better than most have expected in their game vs France, but in my opinion it is more thanks to the uninspired performance by the French than their own. They've been known to put on a good fight and show even when they've been eliminated in the group stage, so they'll certainly be no pushovers. That being said, Aussies tend to be very physical and not afraid of full-contact play in pretty much any sport, and football is no exception, even if they team may be lacking quality compared to some. This means that they're more than capable of frustrating the opposition with strong marking and aerial duels, and they've demonstrated that vs France who, for some reason, chose to play more long passes than I would've expected.
In the end, I think that Denmark should have enough quality in the back to prevent any upsets from the Aussie team, and, depending on how inspired Eriksen & Co. will be up front with their ball movement and distribution, they should be able to bag 2 or 3, and secure their playoff spot, should there not be any upsets in the other game of Group C.
Unfortunately, it seems that I'll be forced to bet locally for the remainder of the World Cup, so posting odds will be of little use here.
That being said, I'm inclined towards Denmark to win and total goals scored between 2 and 4.
France vs Peru
France had an uninspired performance vs Australia in their first game, which led to a very frustrating game for them, and they'll be happy with their three points as they could've easily been held to a draw by the Aussies. If they intend to live up to their expectations from this cup, as well as expectations of their fans, they'll need to step it up in their subsequent games. On the other hand, France is often one of those teams who build their form as the tournaments progress, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them perform much better in their second game of the World Cup, even though Peru should be a much tougher opposition on paper, and in their first game they've definitely shown that there is quality in their squad.
On the other hand, for the majority of the match, Peru vs Denmark was anyone's game, and Peru will be kicking themselves over that missed penalty, but also over not starting their aging legend Paolo Guerrero, who demonstrated that he still has a lot to offer to his national team even after a lengthy suspension. In my opinion, Peru put on a solid game against Denmark, and had shown that their reputation of being a hard team to score against is well-founded. After that loss, however, they've got nothing to lose as the defeat against France will send them packing their bags early.
If Peru changes their lineup somewhat and starts Guerrero, and if France ups their game after managing to snatch the important three points off their nervous first game performance, both of which I expect to happen, we should have an exciting game to watch. Peru will be looking to survive in this tournament, and France will be looking to secure another 3 points. I think that France will be able to put on a good display and secure their playoff spot, allowing them to rest some players in the third game, possibly even do some calculations (both of which wouldn't be the first time we see them do) because winners of the Group D are all but unknown after Argentina failed to secure three points vs Iceland.
This win won't come without a fight, however.
France to win and BTTS
Just for fun - a small-stake bet on CS France - Peru 2:1.

Denmark vs Australia
I was somewhat disappointed with the way Denmark performed in their opener game, but then again, first round matches tend to be more rigid and a lot of teams are inclined to play play it safe, so to speak. Their defense was solid for the majority of the game, and lived up to their reputation of being a tough nut to crack on most days. It's their attack that I expected to perform better and show more creativity in the final third of the pitch. I believe that this could change on Thursday, as the team should now be past the anxiety surrounding their first World Cup game, and with three points in the bag, they should be more relaxed and will be looking to secure their spot in the playoffs instead of looking for their ticket in the final game vs France.
On the other hand, Australia did better than most have expected in their game vs France, but in my opinion it is more thanks to the uninspired performance by the French than their own. They've been known to put on a good fight and show even when they've been eliminated in the group stage, so they'll certainly be no pushovers. That being said, Aussies tend to be very physical and not afraid of full-contact play in pretty much any sport, and football is no exception, even if they team may be lacking quality compared to some. This means that they're more than capable of frustrating the opposition with strong marking and aerial duels, and they've demonstrated that vs France who, for some reason, chose to play more long passes than I would've expected.
In the end, I think that Denmark should have enough quality in the back to prevent any upsets from the Aussie team, and, depending on how inspired Eriksen & Co. will be up front with their ball movement and distribution, they should be able to bag 2 or 3, and secure their playoff spot, should there not be any upsets in the other game of Group C.
Unfortunately, it seems that I'll be forced to bet locally for the remainder of the World Cup, so posting odds will be of little use here.
That being said, I'm inclined towards Denmark to win and total goals scored between 2 and 4.
France vs Peru
France had an uninspired performance vs Australia in their first game, which led to a very frustrating game for them, and they'll be happy with their three points as they could've easily been held to a draw by the Aussies. If they intend to live up to their expectations from this cup, as well as expectations of their fans, they'll need to step it up in their subsequent games. On the other hand, France is often one of those teams who build their form as the tournaments progress, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them perform much better in their second game of the World Cup, even though Peru should be a much tougher opposition on paper, and in their first game they've definitely shown that there is quality in their squad.
On the other hand, for the majority of the match, Peru vs Denmark was anyone's game, and Peru will be kicking themselves over that missed penalty, but also over not starting their aging legend Paolo Guerrero, who demonstrated that he still has a lot to offer to his national team even after a lengthy suspension. In my opinion, Peru put on a solid game against Denmark, and had shown that their reputation of being a hard team to score against is well-founded. After that loss, however, they've got nothing to lose as the defeat against France will send them packing their bags early.
If Peru changes their lineup somewhat and starts Guerrero, and if France ups their game after managing to snatch the important three points off their nervous first game performance, both of which I expect to happen, we should have an exciting game to watch. Peru will be looking to survive in this tournament, and France will be looking to secure another 3 points. I think that France will be able to put on a good display and secure their playoff spot, allowing them to rest some players in the third game, possibly even do some calculations (both of which wouldn't be the first time we see them do) because winners of the Group D are all but unknown after Argentina failed to secure three points vs Iceland.
This win won't come without a fight, however.
France to win and BTTS
Just for fun - a small-stake bet on CS France - Peru 2:1.

Very happy! Congrats on your predictions, you were spot-on with your bets on this game!
It was nice to finally see a cohesive midfield on our team and I personally am glad to see Sergej Milinković-Savić put a solid performance and work well with Matić and Milivojević, being a very late addition to this squad (due to the issues with the former manager, unfortunately). It's been a long time since we've had a solid midfield lineup, and our defense seems solid as well, though not ideal. Overall, people here are very happy with our first performance, though most of us have been preparing for a much worse outcome, so there's also that. The biggest problem in my opinion (which I mentioned in my first post) still remains an issue, however - our striker isn't the brightest fish in the sea, and he needs plenty of chances to make one count, and there won't be plenty versus the much tougher Brazil and Swiss squads. For this reason, one of the guys behind him will need to step up and shine in those two games if we're to hope to get something out of them. Some of them definitely have the potential to do so, and it will definitely be interesting to see if they will.
However, that draw between Brazil and the Switzerland was a rain on our parade.
It all comes down to the Friday clash with Switzerland now which, from what we've seen so far, could be anyone's game, and will likely be a tight contest with only a few opportunities to make a difference.
I am undecided on what to bet on at the moment. However, for those interested in doing so, it is worth noting that this will be an emotional match for both sides. This is because of the well-known Kosovo dispute. As some of you may have noticed, plenty of players on the Swiss team were born in, or originate from Kosovo (and some from Albania), and will surely be extra motivated for this game. On the other hand, Kosovo is, obviously, a very emotional topic for the Serbs as well, so any good result in clashes versus any team related to Albania or Kosovo always counts as a double.
I am certain that this will be almost as big motivator for both sides as points and the prospects of advancing to the next round for those who snatch a win. The atmosphere in the stands could likely be heated and not short of provocation from both sides. We are likely to see plenty of Kosovo and some greater Albania flags among the Swiss fans (as was the case in quite a few events in the past, probably the most famous one being the drone incident in the Euro 2016 qualifiers). Serbs, on the other hand, will likely respond with some well-known chants, backed by the local Russian fans with whom we have brotherly relations.
Our first-choice striker Aleksandar Mitrović has a reputation for being hot-headed and being prone to doing something stupid out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he allows some attempts at provocation to get to his head. I haven't checked the odds yet, but having a small stake on a red card in this game might be a worthwhile consideration, with him being the first choice.
Other than that, I'll let the things settle some more before deciding on any serious bets on this game. I'm inclined towards a low-scoring game, but that could be risky if our team decides to risk and go all in instead of hoping for a result from a game vs Brazil, which I'm sure will try to step up their game in the next two fixtures. So, perhaps a goalless first half instead.
I'll post my picks at a later date, should I find anything worthwhile.

Very happy! Congrats on your predictions, you were spot-on with your bets on this game!
It was nice to finally see a cohesive midfield on our team and I personally am glad to see Sergej Milinković-Savić put a solid performance and work well with Matić and Milivojević, being a very late addition to this squad (due to the issues with the former manager, unfortunately). It's been a long time since we've had a solid midfield lineup, and our defense seems solid as well, though not ideal. Overall, people here are very happy with our first performance, though most of us have been preparing for a much worse outcome, so there's also that. The biggest problem in my opinion (which I mentioned in my first post) still remains an issue, however - our striker isn't the brightest fish in the sea, and he needs plenty of chances to make one count, and there won't be plenty versus the much tougher Brazil and Swiss squads. For this reason, one of the guys behind him will need to step up and shine in those two games if we're to hope to get something out of them. Some of them definitely have the potential to do so, and it will definitely be interesting to see if they will.
However, that draw between Brazil and the Switzerland was a rain on our parade.
It all comes down to the Friday clash with Switzerland now which, from what we've seen so far, could be anyone's game, and will likely be a tight contest with only a few opportunities to make a difference.
I am undecided on what to bet on at the moment. However, for those interested in doing so, it is worth noting that this will be an emotional match for both sides. This is because of the well-known Kosovo dispute. As some of you may have noticed, plenty of players on the Swiss team were born in, or originate from Kosovo (and some from Albania), and will surely be extra motivated for this game. On the other hand, Kosovo is, obviously, a very emotional topic for the Serbs as well, so any good result in clashes versus any team related to Albania or Kosovo always counts as a double.
I am certain that this will be almost as big motivator for both sides as points and the prospects of advancing to the next round for those who snatch a win. The atmosphere in the stands could likely be heated and not short of provocation from both sides. We are likely to see plenty of Kosovo and some greater Albania flags among the Swiss fans (as was the case in quite a few events in the past, probably the most famous one being the drone incident in the Euro 2016 qualifiers). Serbs, on the other hand, will likely respond with some well-known chants, backed by the local Russian fans with whom we have brotherly relations.
Our first-choice striker Aleksandar Mitrović has a reputation for being hot-headed and being prone to doing something stupid out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he allows some attempts at provocation to get to his head. I haven't checked the odds yet, but having a small stake on a red card in this game might be a worthwhile consideration, with him being the first choice.
Other than that, I'll let the things settle some more before deciding on any serious bets on this game. I'm inclined towards a low-scoring game, but that could be risky if our team decides to risk and go all in instead of hoping for a result from a game vs Brazil, which I'm sure will try to step up their game in the next two fixtures. So, perhaps a goalless first half instead.
I'll post my picks at a later date, should I find anything worthwhile.

Lukaku score a goal today 

Very happy! Congrats on your predictions, you were spot-on with your bets on this game!
It was nice to finally see a cohesive midfield on our team and I personally am glad to see Sergej Milinković-Savić put a solid performance and work well with Matić and Milivojević, being a very late addition to this squad (due to the issues with the former manager, unfortunately). It's been a long time since we've had a solid midfield lineup, and our defense seems solid as well, though not ideal. Overall, people here are very happy with our first performance, though most of us have been preparing for a much worse outcome, so there's also that. The biggest problem in my opinion (which I mentioned in my first post) still remains an issue, however - our striker isn't the brightest fish in the sea, and he needs plenty of chances to make one count, and there won't be plenty versus the much tougher Brazil and Swiss squads. For this reason, one of the guys behind him will need to step up and shine in those two games if we're to hope to get something out of them. Some of them definitely have the potential to do so, and it will definitely be interesting to see if they will.
However, that draw between Brazil and the Switzerland was a rain on our parade.
It all comes down to the Friday clash with Switzerland now which, from what we've seen so far, could be anyone's game, and will likely be a tight contest with only a few opportunities to make a difference.
I am undecided on what to bet on at the moment. However, for those interested in doing so, it is worth noting that this will be an emotional match for both sides. This is because of the well-known Kosovo dispute. As some of you may have noticed, plenty of players on the Swiss team were born in, or originate from Kosovo (and some from Albania), and will surely be extra motivated for this game. On the other hand, Kosovo is, obviously, a very emotional topic for the Serbs as well, so any good result in clashes versus any team related to Albania or Kosovo always counts as a double.
I am certain that this will be almost as big motivator for both sides as points and the prospects of advancing to the next round for those who snatch a win. The atmosphere in the stands could likely be heated and not short of provocation from both sides. We are likely to see plenty of Kosovo and some greater Albania flags among the Swiss fans (as was the case in quite a few events in the past, probably the most famous one being the drone incident in the Euro 2016 qualifiers). Serbs, on the other hand, will likely respond with some well-known chants, backed by the local Russian fans with whom we have brotherly relations.
Our first-choice striker Aleksandar Mitrović has a reputation for being hot-headed and being prone to doing something stupid out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he allows some attempts at provocation to get to his head. I haven't checked the odds yet, but having a small stake on a red card in this game might be a worthwhile consideration, with him being the first choice.
Other than that, I'll let the things settle some more before deciding on any serious bets on this game. I'm inclined towards a low-scoring game, but that could be risky if our team decides to risk and go all in instead of hoping for a result from a game vs Brazil, which I'm sure will try to step up their game in the next two fixtures. So, perhaps a goalless first half instead.
I'll post my picks at a later date, should I find anything worthwhile.

Costa Rica vs Serbia
Group E action gets underway with Costa Rica and Serbia going head-to-head in a 1pm BST kick-off this coming Sunday at the Cosmos Arena in Samara. Brazil are certainly the favourites to top this group so a defeat for either side here could leave their qualification hopes for the 2nd round hanging by a thread.
Four years ago, Costa Rica reached the quarter-finals of the 2014 World Cup. That campaign was under the stewardship of former head coach Jorge Luis Pinto. The humiliating era of Paulo Wanchope followed for a short time before current manager Oscar Ramirez was appointed in 2015. Current evaluation of Ramirez would likely been OK but could do better. Qualification for this World Cup was relatively comfortable but friendly performances coming into this tournament have been a cause for concern.
Serbia were not fancied to make it out of their qualification group with many tipping Wales, Ireland, and even Austria to finish ahead of them. However, just one defeat in qualifying has led to an increase in expectations even if their own supporters are entering the tournament slightly pessimistic. A squad that includes the likes of Branislav Ivanovic, Aleksandar Kolarov, Dusan Tadic, Nemanja Matic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, and Aleksandar Mitrovic should have more than enough to get something here.
I think Costa Rica will be back to their below par best. The odds on a Serbia win are too good to ignore. Having seen Serbia first hand after they played Wales in the qualifiers I know how tough they are to break down. If their midfield can kill games like they did in qualifying and they can counter attack effectively then I don't see why Serbia can't qualify from this group. I expect them to win this game and the match versus Switzerland will be the decider.
Serbia to win @ 1.95 with BetBright
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.65 with Blacktype

Hello everyone, and greetings from Serbia!
It feels great to see this forum alive and kicking after being away for a few years. I used to lurk and post years ago, but nowadays I l mostly limit my gambling and following matches to Euro and World Cups, as there isn't nearly as much time to analyse the games as there used to be.
That being said, I wanted to give some insight into the conditions surrounding our national team, but I see that DrO has beaten me to it, and already covered it all in detail. So, without repeating what has already been said, I'd just like to confirm that it's all true.
Both our international and club football has been on a decline for years now due to corruption and player agents having a say in who gets to play and who doesn't (two notable examples are Matić some years ago, and nowadays Milinković-Savić who, despite all the interest he's been getting from European clubs, got called up to the national squad only recently, mostly due to disputes between several player agents, as well as some members of our FA).
With that in mind, most people aren't optimistic about our chances at this World Cup, not so much due to our group opponents, but due to the fact that our greatest enemy is - ourselves. To add to that - our new manager is inexperienced and has been appointed only recently. We topped our qualifying group mostly on the back of other teams under performing, and some of the results may give a false impression of our team playing better than it actually is.
It's not about individual quality of the players as much as it is about the mentality and players taking sides and forming groups in the past competitions. On a good day, when there's a good team cohesion, our team is theoretically able to put a solid performance against most teams. Question is how often is that possible?
I'd say our strengths are a traditionally-solid backline, and if Matić, Milinković-Savić and co. have managed to build some cohesion between them, there should finally be some creativity in the midfield. However, the guys who are expected to score goals in the front usually lack flair, so I doubt we'll be able to score many goals unless there are plenty of chances to do so, or they get their goal served on a platter, which may be hard to pull off against the likes of Switzerland and Brazil.
Our first game, vs Costa Rica, will be crucial for our chances in this tournament. A loss, and possibly a draw pretty much put us out of contest immediately, as it would be unfair to expect anything better vs the next two opponents if we aren't able to put on a good display vs the (in theory) the weakest opponent in our campaign.
I recently watched the Costa Rica friendly vs Belgium, and my impression is that they are weak where we aren't very strong, which is the ability to put the defense off with 4-5 short passes which opens them up and creates a goal chance. I'd like to be proven wrong, but I wouldn't expect many goals in our opener game. However, I do expect us to find the net eventually, but the question is whether a moment of stupidity will make it even.
I think I'll try both teams to score, and test my luck with a small-stake bet on correct score 2:1 for Serbia, but only because failing to win this game puts us out of the competition prematurely.
Against Switzerland, I'd expect a low scoring game (under 2.5 goals), but I fail seeing us win that one, so either a draw or a narrow Switzerland win (perhaps a DNB if the odds are right).
A game vs Brazil will purely depend on whether they'll be looking to rest their players for the knockout stages, and how hard they be willing to go at it, presuming that they've already secured their advancement, which I expect to happen. Even in such a case, I think that Brazil are likely to come out on top without too much effort (possibly a win to nil, but I'll wait to see them play first to confirm my opinion about their very strong backline).
Sorry for turning this post into a needlessly long rant, and good luck with your bets!