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** July Nap's Competition Result : 1st Rainbow, 2nd Trainmad091, 3rd Zidane123, KO Cup Bathtime For Rupert, Most Winners Alastair, Goodwood Comp: Glavintoby**
**July Poker League Result : 1st Craggwood £75, 2nd Like2Fish £45, 3rd Rivrd £30**

Escaping Captivity

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  1. Like
    Escaping Captivity reacted to Sir Puntalot in How to assess jockeys and their stats?   
    Subjective would be an understatement @MattA147 - it's more about the horse than the jockey in my experience, the jockey is there to deliver trainers instructions.  
  2. Like
    Escaping Captivity got a reaction from Systemight in Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2   
    Ever come across this fraud before? Lied to everyone including his missus about winning the lottery - so attention seekers like him do exist!
    Laying may look an easier way of doing things but like backing you still need to find value. Unfortunately it has a smaller window to find worthwhile bets, similar to the odds range stated in the thread title. With backing you can pretty much use the whole spectrum.
    To look at it another way especially when it comes to outsiders, convert the laying odds to the backing odds.
    Laying at 2.25 = 1.8
    2.50 = 1.67
    3.00 = 1.50
    4.00 = 1.33
    7.00 = 1.17
    10.00 = 1.11
    15.00 = 1.07
    25.00 = 1.04
    50.00 = 1.02
    100.00 = 1.01
  3. Like
    Escaping Captivity got a reaction from The Equaliser in Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2   
    That 'problem' is a punters window of opportunity. Nobody can define the true odds of a horse. All we can do is make an estimation. If the market at the time says 2/1 which equates to a probability of 33.33% and you estimate it at say a 50% chance of winning then you've projected a value bet. Easier said than done though.
    In contrast, columns in roulette offer the odds of 2/1 and the probability of winning is not even 33.33% because of the house edge. On a European wheel with a single zero the probability is 32.40% - and these are true odds.
  4. Like
    Escaping Captivity got a reaction from GeeGeeWinner in A v B Match up Long Haul   
    31% ROI so far GG.
    Promising start.
  5. Haha
    Escaping Captivity reacted to BillyHills in Spreadsheet selection   
    Free of charge of course??
  6. Like
    Escaping Captivity reacted to Fazman in Golden Rules..   
    In 9 months from £200 starting bankroll making £10 bets 5% of bankroll per bet , i have made £1100 profit 
    that is a way over 100% Return on my initial investment .
    but if you are talking about total amount staked to returns then yes it is only approx 20% ROI
  7. Thanks
    Escaping Captivity reacted to Valiant Thor in early price database?   
    Unfortunately the forecast in SL is dynamic so it reverts to the SP after the race.
    I think @HenryTD requires the pre-race forecast
  8. Like
    Escaping Captivity got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in World Cup Comp - Final Table   
    Appreciation directed towards Billy Hills for all his hard graft and congrats to those who won.
  9. Like
    Escaping Captivity got a reaction from BillyHills in World Cup Comp - Final Table   
    Appreciation directed towards Billy Hills for all his hard graft and congrats to those who won.
  10. Haha
  11. Like
    Escaping Captivity reacted to EviL ZippY in Epsom Derby Tips & Trends 2018   
    am I the only one that thinks that Saxon Warrior’s price is f**king insane ?
    i mean he could well go on to win and win well, but that’s still a bonkers price imo
  12. Like
    Escaping Captivity reacted to Soviet Song in Racing Chat - Sunday May 13th   
    Southwell 4.35 SPADER e/w @ 18/1
    Yet to score over hurdles but interesting that Dan Skelton keeps faith with the 5yo.Been dropped a further 6lb for latest effort here and races off mark of 88.This time last year at Kempton he was beaten a head off 104.The Skelton yard has a 25% strike rate in past fortnight and nicely weighted here on 10st6.
     
     
  13. Thanks
    Escaping Captivity reacted to Redemption_ in Steamers & Gaps - 31.75PTS IN 5 DAYS   
    Looks like the Fast Results on Sporting Life have scuppered me too hahaha
    I've had winners I didn't even know I had!! So the first half of the week, when I was paper betting, I never even saw the winners I should have had... 
    Anyway... I give up on OpenOffice and SportingLife.com too
    Here's the final results:-
    Date Meeting/Time Selection Win Odds Place Odds RESULT Bet Type +/- 07/05/18 15:25 Bath Catheadans Fury 5.50 2.50 WON PLACE 1.50 07/05/18 17:10 Bath Glamorous Rocket 5.00 2.27 LOST WIN -1.00 07/05/18 17:45 Bath Impart 7.50 3.41 LOST PLACE -1.00 07/05/18 15:50 Warwick Captain Jack 7.50 3.41 LOST PLACE -1.00 07/05/18 16:25 Warwick Druids Folly 7.50 3.41 PLACED PLACE 2.41 07/05/18 15:45 Windsor Roar 5.50 2.50 LOST PLACE -1.00 07/05/18 16:20 Windsor Medburn Dream 4.50 2.05 WON WIN 3.50 07/05/18 18:00 Windsor Kodiac Express 6.50 2.95 PLACED PLACE 1.95 07/05/18 15:20 Naas Amanaat 5.00 2.27 LOST WIN -1.00 07/05/18 16:30 Naas Xenobia 4.50 2.05 PLACED WIN -1.00   +3.36             08/05/18 14:30 Brighton Soumei 3.75 1.53 WON WIN 2.75 08/05/18 15:00 Brighton Dolydaydream 6.00 2.74 LOST PLACE -1.00 08/05/18 15:55 Thirsk Acclaim The Nation 8.00 2.75 WON PLACE 1.75 08/05/18 16:55 Thirsk Whitkirk 5.00 2.08 WON WIN 4.00 08/05/18 17:05 Brighton Ocean Temptress 7.00 3.05 LOST PLACE -1.00 08/05/18 17:25 Thirsk Wonderfillo 4.50 1.90 LOST WIN -1.00 08/05/18 19:30 Ludlow Atlantic Grey 6.50 2.94 LOST PLACE -1.00 08/05/18 20:00 Ludlow Excellent Team 7.50 3.05 LOST PLACE -1.00   +3.5             09/05/18 14:25 Chester Award Winning 7.50 2.62 LOST PLACE -1.00 09/05/18 15:00 Chester Looks A Million 8.00 2.72 PLACED PLACE 1.72 09/05/18 15:35 Chester Young Rascal 5.00 1.97 WON WIN 4.00 09/05/18 15:55 Newton Abbot Ballybolley 5.50 1.98 LOST WIN -1.00 09/05/18 16:05 Chester Infrastructure 7.00 2.10 PLACED WIN -1.00 09/05/18 16:35 Chester Last Page 5.50 2.30 LOST WIN -1.00 09/05/18 16:55 Newton Abbot Lamb Or Cod 5.50 2.86 PLACED PLACE 1.86 09/05/18 17:05 Chester Sultan Baybars 6.50 2.44 LOST WIN -1.00 09/05/18 17:10 Fontwell Howlongisafoot 7.00 2.52 PLACED PLACE 1.52 09/05/18 17:25 Newton Abbot Ice Tres 7.50 2.28 LOST WIN -1.00 09/05/18 17:55 Wolverhampton Brigadoon 9.00 3.20 LOST PLACE -1.00 09/05/18 19:45 Fontwell Stole The Show 3.75 1.64 WON WIN 2.75 09/05/18 20:55 Wolverhampton Funkadelic 6.50 1.63 LOST WIN -1.00   +3.85             10/05/18 13:40 Worcester Ballina Lady 4.33 2.14 LOST WIN -1.00 10/05/18 13:50 Chester A Momentofmadness 4.50 2.16 WON WIN 3.50 10/05/18 14:10 Worcester Cropley 7.50 2.78 WON PLACE 1.78 10/05/18 14:45 Worcester Alf n Dor 5.50 2.32 PLACED WIN -1.00 10/05/18 15:00 Chester Another Batt 7.00 2.54 WON PLACE 1.54 10/05/18 15:55 Worcester Mac Bella 9.00 6.40 LOST PLACE -1.00 10/05/18 16:15 Huntingdon Early Retirement 9.00 3.10 PLACED PLACE 2.10 10/05/18 16:15 Huntingdon Blagapar 6.50 2.62 LOST PLACE -1.00 10/05/18 16:25 Worcester Hurlstone Point 11.00 2.66 PLACED PLACE 1.66 10/05/18 17:05 Chester Dark Devil 7.50 2.96 PLACED PLACE 1.96 10/05/18 17:15 Huntingdon Nanny Pats 7.00 2.56 LOST PLACE -1.00 10/05/18 17:20 Wincanton Stradivarius Davis 10.00 2.26 WON WIN 9.00 10/05/18 17:30 Tipperary Papal Motel 6.50 1.67 LOST WIN -1.00   +15.54             11/05/18 13:50 Chester Above The Rest 9.00 3.00 WON PLACE 2.00 11/05/18 13:55 Curragh Invincible Karma 6.00 2.20 PLACED WIN -1.00 11/05/18 14:15 Lingfield Hameem 5.50 1.90 PLACED WIN -1.00 11/05/18 14:30 Curragh Posh Holly 6.50 2.46 LOST WIN -1.00 11/05/18 14:40 Market Rasen War At Sea 6.00 2.58 LOST PLACE -1.00 11/05/18 15:00 Chester Restorer 6.50 2.37 WON WIN 5.50 11/05/18 15:05 Curragh Major Power 5.50 2.12 LOST WIN -1.00 11/05/18 15:15 Market Rasen Our Kaempfer 5.50 1.90 LOST WIN -1.00 11/05/18 15:25 Lingfield Evergate 6.00 2.50 WON PLACE 1.50 11/05/18 15:45 Market Rasen Alizee Javilex 8.00 2.50 LOST PLACE -1.00 11/05/18 15:55 Lingfield Hateya 5.50 2.00 WON WIN 4.50 11/05/18 16:30 Lingfield Ledham 5.50 2.10 LOST WIN -1.00   +5.5            
    GRAND TOTAL 31.75PTS IN 5 DAYS
  14. Like
    Escaping Captivity got a reaction from Redemption_ in Steamers & Gaps - 31.75PTS IN 5 DAYS   
    According to my stats the winner in the 19:50 at Exeter, Creative Inerta, steamed in @ 5.10 from 15.00 today.
    There were also a few on Saturday. Titus 17.00 to 8.60 and Pettochside 15.00 to 8.00.