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Steamers & Gaps - 31.75PTS IN 5 DAYS

Redemption_
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Redemption_

Redemption_

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CAUTION ADVISED!!!
I HAD NUMEROUS SPREADSHEET ISSUES AND ALSO HAD MISINFORMATION ON SPORTINGLIFE FAST RESULTS
ACTUAL RECORD IS ON THE FINAL POST HERE

Sorry everyone :) I had a ton of work on, and did this as fast as I could. Happily, it ended well!!

____

I'm trialling a method that involves watching the books for every race in UK & IRE, and spotting where the steamers are before 10am.

At this time in a morning, everyone is making their book on Betfair, and early money is going on, so I think it's a good time to watch the markets. There's no influence other than what the newspaper tipsters are saying, and what the predicted SP is going to be.

My method (there's no hard & fast rle, and mostly visual cues):-

  • Look at races that have had a market move (steamer) and see what is happening with the top 3 horses in terms of odds. Use AtTheRaces and Oddschecker to identify.
  • A good race would be one where the FAV has had very little movement (2.50 > 3.00 < 2.88 > 3.00 odds for example)
    Also note the movement in odds of the 2nd & 3rd FAVs in these races
  • If the 2nd/3rd FAV has a big price movement (STEAMER) for example: 10.00 < 6.00 then this qualifies.

Here's what I've got for today using this method... (ALL £0.25 E/W BETS)

I've thrown in trebles & doubles for fun. I am keen to see how it actually performs, and I might knock up a spreadsheet to track it. Thought it might be of interest to a few folks :) We'll see...

7th May Bath 15:25 HANDICAP 0m 5f 160y - Each Way
Catheadans Fury 5.50
7th May Bath 17:10 HANDICAP 0m 5f 10y - Each Way
Glamorous Rocket 5.00
7th May Bath 17:45 HANDICAP 0m 5f 10y - Each Way
Impart 7.00
7th May Warwick 15:50 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 0f 0y - Each Way
Captain Jack 7.50
7th May Warwick 16:25 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 3f 0y - Each Way
Druids Folly 7.50
7th May Windsor 15:45 HANDICAP 1m 2f 0y - Each Way
Roar 5.50
7th May Windsor 16:20 HANDICAP 1m 0f 31y - Each Way
Medburn Dream 4.50
7th May Windsor 18:00 HANDICAP 0m 5f 21y - Each Way
Kodiac Express 6.50
7th May Naas 15:20 5F HCAP 5f - Each Way
Amanaat 5.00
7th May Naas 16:30 7F STAKES 7f - Each Way
Xenobia 4.50

Edited by Redemption_
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Redemption_

Redemption_

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Results: Day 1

Catheadans Fury 5.50 WON
Glamorous Rocket 5.00 LOST
Impart 7.00 LOST
Captain Jack 7.50 LOST
Druids Folly 7.50 PLACED
Roar 5.50 LOST
Medburn Dream 4.50 WON
Kodiac Express 6.50 PLACED 
Amanaat 5.00 LOST
Xenobia 4.50 PLACED

Unit Stake Number of Bets Total Stake
1.00 20 20.00
Total Return Total Profit
19.70 -0.30

I'm not going to stray from the method I'm using, but i am going to refine the staking method (maybe!)

Any suggestions for the best way to stake with odds like this? Preferably one that does not require me sat at my desk watching each race...

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Kingdom for

Kingdom for

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13 hours ago, Redemption_ said:

I'm trialling a method that involves watching the books for every race in UK & IRE, and spotting where the steamers are before 10am.........

Good luck.  I hope you will persist.  I will watch with interest. 

One of the reasons is that a relative is keen on this concept.  Another is that I might learn something.  Knowledge is a good thing.  

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Redemption_

Redemption_

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I honestly never considered the steamer/drifter approach until today. I saw a pattern I had never seen before, and it was because of an old PL post I happened upon.

I think the timing is critical too, so I'll stick to the early odds shifts at 9:45 - 10:00am, back my selections, and just watch the market whenever possible through the day.

Logically, I know I'm not smarter than a hundred veteran handicappers, and i know the house almost always wins... Yet I can see exactly what they do by watching the market trends. They react to market moves. It's visible.

If a favourite gets backed into evens from 4/1, then that is interesting. But more interesting is the 3rd or 4th favourite trends. Mathematical reasoning would suggest the favourite has the race sewn up, so the book should reflect the shift in price. Except it doesn't always happen. Another horse should have LESS chance of winning? So why did the odds shorten for the 3rd favourite?

If there are no logical answers to something mathematical and logical, it makes me think someone knows something critically important about that horse (that I don't) and I should follow the money... but maybe it's the smarter money.

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Redemption_

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That was a long-winded post :) I might be blowing it out of proportion, but I do now see these price gaps... And I'll get better at it. Had some good winners today that a staking plan might hammer a great profit out of. Here's hoping!!

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Redemption_

Redemption_

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8th May

14:30 Brighton - 5f Nov Stks 
Soumei 3.75 (WIN price on PaddyPower)/ 1.53 (PLACE price on Betfair Exch)14:30 Brighton - 5f Nov Stks 
Dolydaydream 6.0 / 2.74
15:55 Thirsk - 5f Hcap 
Acclaim The Nation 8.0 / 2.46
16:55 Thirsk - 1m Hcap 
Whitkirk 5.0 / 2.08
17:05 Brighton - 7f Hcap 
Ocean Temptress 7.0 / 3.05
17:25 Thirsk - 1m Hcap
Wonderfillo 4.5 / 1.90
18:50 Exeter - 2m7f Hcap Hrd 
Coningsby 8.5 / 4.2
19:30 Ludlow - 2m5f Hcap Hrd
Atlantic Grey 6.5 / 2.94
20:00 Ludlow - 2m Hcap Hrd
Excellent Team 7.5 / 3.05

Edited to include PLACE market prices on Betfair.

Edited by Redemption_
Added prices for Betfair Place & ordered by time
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Redemption_

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So I have today decided on a staking plan. I'm actually in competition with my wife who has her own "system". The winner at the end of a 30 day period gets bragging rights...

The staking plan is as follows:

  • Set a target daily amount, and increase by 20% daily
  • Start with applicable stake to hit target. If bet 1 loses, increase stake to cover previous loss + hit target.
  • If Betfair PLACE odds are =>2.50, bet is a PLACE bet, otherwise it's a SINGLE WIN bet.

I realise that this is a bit of a "loss chaser", but I'm confident in the system enough to move forward with it. As it's just for fun, my current daily target is £1.00 :)

First bet romped home at 4.00 odds, so I'm in clover at the moment :)

Edit - Acclaim The Nation - 7/1 winner! Lovely jubbly.

 

Edited by Redemption_
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Redemption_

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Grand day today.

Overall, at level stakes, I'd be 19.56PTS 6.86pts up. I'm impressed so far.

Edit: Had a spreadsheet error. Actually was +15.06PTS

I omitted a part of the staking plan, however. If the PLACE odds are >=2.50, I put a place bet on, otherwise, it's a WIN bet.

Date Meeting/Time Selection Win Odds Place Odds RESULT Bet Type
08/05/18 14:30 Brighton Soumei 3.75 1.53 WON WIN
08/05/18 15:00 Brighton Dolydaydream 6.00 2.74 LOST PLACE
08/05/18 15:55 Thirsk Acclaim The Nation 8.00 2.75 WON PLACE
08/05/18 16:55 Thirsk Whitkirk 5.00 2.08 WON WIN
08/05/18 17:05 Brighton Ocean Temptress 7.00 3.05 LOST PLACE
08/05/18 17:25 Thirsk Wonderfillo 4.50 1.90 LOST WIN
08/05/18 18:50 Exeter Coningsby 8.50 4.20 NR PLACE
08/05/18 19:30 Ludlow Atlantic Grey 6.50 2.94 LOST PLACE
08/05/18 20:00 Ludlow Excellent Team 7.50 3.05 LOST PLACE


 

Edited by Redemption_
Incorrect profit
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Redemption_

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The big odds shifts are great indicators, and I can see races at a glance that will be of interest... but generally speaking I am browsing every race with 7+ runners, and looking for at least 2pts movement in the higher priced horses. The top 4 horses usually (excluding fav). Again, because it is early prices, these 2pt movements are of interest.

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Redemption_

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9th May Selections @ 9:42am

Date TIME/MEETING Selection Win Odds Place Odds RESULT REC' BET
09/05/18 14:25 Chester Award Winning 7.50 2.62 LOST PLACE
09/05/18 15:00 Chester Looks A Million 8.00 2.72 PLACED PLACE
09/05/18 15:35 Chester Young Rascal 5.00 1.97 WON WIN
09/05/18 15:55 Newton Abbot Ballybolley 5.50 1.98 LOST WIN
09/05/18 16:05 Chester Infrastructure 7.00 2.10 PLACED WIN
09/05/18 16:35 Chester Last Page 5.50 2.30 LOST WIN
09/05/18 16:55 Newton Abbot Lamb Or Cod 5.50 2.86 PLACED PLACE
09/05/18 17:05 Chester Sultan Baybars 6.50 2.44 LOST WIN
09/05/18 17:10 Fontwell Howlongisafoot 7.00 2.52 PLACED PLACE
09/05/18 17:25 Newton Abbot Ice Tres 7.50 2.28 LOST WIN
09/05/18 17:55 Wolverhampton Brigadoon 9.00 3.20 LOST PLACE
09/05/18 19:45 Fontwell Stole The Show 3.75 1.64 WON WIN
09/05/18 20:55 Wolverhampton Funkadelic 6.50 1.63 LOST WIN

These are the selections that look great so far. I'm going to be up to my neck in it with work at 10am, so I'm glad these were already standing out before my cutoff. There might be more that fit the system by 10am, so I'll suffer the consequences of losing that lottery ticket :) GL all!

Edit: I've updated the results, and also added some column headers. The far right column is the Recommended Bet according to the system. The odds are taken from PaddyPower and Betfair Exchange respectively. From now on I will just update the original post with the results to save space and time etc.

Edited by Redemption_
FORMATTING & RESULTS
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Redemption_

Redemption_

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Outstanding day...

Really happy with the system. I think there will probably be a few tweaks along the way, but nothing major.

LSP over 3 days that I've been trialling this system: 10.71pts

Day 1: 4.41pts 3.36pts
Day 2: 5.11pts 3.50pts
Day 3: 5.46pts 3.85pts

After this week I'll probably hit the level stakes staking plan, because by then it will be enough to have proven itself. So if all goes well this weekend, Monday I'll begin with (modest) Level Stakes :) 

EDIT:
STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE BLOODY SPREADSHEET!
Sorry, I have edited the LSP now, and confirmed correct!!! 

Edited by Redemption_
Bloody spreadsheet! (i.e my fault...)
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10th May

Two picks in one race today. That's a first.

10/05/18 13:40 Worcester Ballina Lady 4.33 2.14 LOST WIN
10/05/18 13:50 Chester A Momentofmadness 4.50 2.16 WON WIN
10/05/18 14:10 Worcester Cropley 7.50 2.78 WON PLACE
10/05/18 14:45 Worcester Alf n Dor 5.50 2.32 LOST WIN
10/05/18 15:00 Chester Another Batt 7.00 2.54 WON PLACE
10/05/18 15:55 Worcester Mac Bella 9.00 6.40 LOST PLACE
10/05/18 16:15 Huntingdon Early Retirement 9.00 3.10 PLACED PLACE
10/05/18 16:15 Huntingdon Blagapar 6.50 2.62 LOST PLACE
10/05/18 16:25 Worcester Hurlstone Point 11.00 2.66 PLACED PLACE
10/05/18 17:05 Chester Dark Devil 7.50 2.96 PLACED PLACE
10/05/18 17:15 Huntingdon Nanny Pats 7.00 2.56 LOST PLACE
10/05/18 17:20 Wincanton Stradivarius Davis 10.00 2.26 WON WIN
10/05/18 17:30 Tipperary Papal Motel 6.50 1.67 LOST WIN

GL to all!

Edited by Redemption_
FORMATTING & RESULTS
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Another beauty landed! 5.98pts up after the 15:00 at Chester!

I could really do with some advice on staking. I know LSP is a great way to go, but can anyone advise if "Stop at target" would work better with this? The win odds and the place odds mean I'm getting about 4pts per day, so I was thinking; would a "Stop at 2pts profit" work well? If it means I have to be backing these on my phone, I don't actually mind now... it's clearly profitable :)

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Lovely touch with Stradivarius Davis @ 11:00 :) Results are updated here

Onwards & upwards for the Steamers & Gap System! 17.96pts today! 32.94pts overall - over 4 days...  15.54pts today! 30.75pts overall over 4 days!

UPDATE: Spreadsheet FINALLY fixed. OpenOffice Calc had an issue... When I edited a formula, it was deleting the next character in the formula. Also was replacing text in my CONCATENATE formulae??? Anyway... I've revised the spreadsheet, and although there's been a drop in the profits, it's not much. Also, I actually made more myself when I got the odds on. The lesson here? USE MS EXCEL FOR IMPORTANT SPREADSHEETS.

Edited by Redemption_
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Redemption_

Redemption_

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2 hours ago, Kingdom for said:

Nice work Sir.  

I like particularly how well you are presenting your information.

 

Cheers mate. I've had a few hiccups (spreadsheet woes), but it's been helping me stay focused & keep to the system by documenting everything :)

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11th May

Date Meeting/Time Selection Win Odds Place Odds RESULT Bet Type
11/05/18 13:50 Chester Above The Rest 9.00 3.00 WON PLACE
11/05/18 13:55 Curragh Invincible Karma 6.00 2.20 LOST WIN
11/05/18 14:15 Lingfield Hameem 5.50 1.90 LOST WIN
11/05/18 14:30 Curragh Posh Holly 6.50 2.46 LOST WIN
11/05/18 14:40 Market Rasen War At Sea 6.00 2.58 LOST PLACE
11/05/18 15:00 Chester Restorer 6.50 2.37 WON WIN
11/05/18 15:05 Curragh Major Power 5.50 2.12 LOST WIN
11/05/18 15:15 Market Rasen Our Kaempfer 5.50 1.90 LOST WIN
11/05/18 15:25 Lingfield Evergate 6.00 2.50 WON PLACE
11/05/18 15:45 Market Rasen Alizee Javilex 8.00 2.50 LOST PLACE
11/05/18 15:55 Lingfield Hateya 5.50 2.00 WON WIN
11/05/18 16:30 Lingfield Ledham 5.50 2.10   WIN

Edit: Extra one added 15:00 ChesterGL to all!Some HUGE steamers in Ireland - more than 5pts shift in some cases

6.5PTS UP @ 15:59
 

Edited by Redemption_
RESULTS
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