South_African_Punter

Raonic was struggling at the end with an injury. I'd be very cautious in backing him any further.

Rafael Nadal (-6.5) to beat Alex De Minaur at 1.86 with Marathon
Fair play to De Minaur, but he looked toast at the end of his match with Laaksonen and he doesn't have any weapons to really hurt Nadal with. His best approach is to be inspired by how Schwartzman was handling Nadal in the past, but you need a lot of energy for that and I don't see the Australian having enough after playing so much tennis recently. He can nick a set somehow I guess, but, if he does, I'd expect Nadal to get at least one 6-1 or 6-2 set in return.

Kiki Bertens + Schwartzman + Basilashvili at 2.06 with 888
I see Kiki better now. Pavy has played 3 matches in 2019 and she has lost against Vera Lapko and Kudermetova. Kiki won against Pera and Putintseva in straight sets and lost against Barty in a 3 set match in Sydney. Pavy serve is one of her biggest weakness so I expect a lot of BP for Kiki (Kiki is serving so well). Both players won their first rounds in straight sets but Kiki had to face a player in a good form (Riske) while Pavy faced a player in a bad shape (Monica Puig).
Schwartzman and Basilashvili are better than their oponents.
Yoshihito Nishioka (+2.5 Sets) against Kharen Khachanov at 1.67 with 888
Nishioka is playing well. She won against Kubler, Christian Garín, Ryan Harrison and Rublev in Sidney and he finally lost against Schwartzman in a 3 set match. He had a tough opponent in the first round, Tennys Sandgren. Sandgren was playing so well (won all his matches in Auckland in straight sets: Marterer, Cecchinato, Mayer, Kohls and Norrie) but Nishioka beat him in 4 sets. Khachanov had an easier match (Gojowczyk) but lost the first set and looks like he’s not in his best physically.

Perhaps suggests there will be a higher than usual number of upsets in the next round or perhaps R3...but it's been tough for people backing the outsiders. I didn't even back the outsider Darcis against Coric - simply just needed him to win a set...

Murray is unbelievable. He should feel proud even if he lost the match because he sure is playing very well considering his bad injury. 

He definitely has more variety than Isner, there's no doubt about that, but he's much less resilient mentally imo. Yep, there's a good price on +2.5 sets/Over 3.5 sets, but boy am I scared about that Opelka result.

Kiki has improved her hardcourt game, certainly at the back end of last year. She's not simply good on clay anymore, and she's started off quite decently this year. Remember she won against Halep in a hardcourt Masters final last year, if I remember correctly.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Robin Haase at 1.82 with Unibet
GG-Lopez has looked awfully good so far this season and Robin looked awfully bad. Can remember last summer when they last met and GG-Lopez had an outstanding match on grass in Antalya. I'm all over GG-Lopez on this price, good enough for me.

Pablo Andujar +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.24 Pinnacle 3/10
Look above.
Steve Darcis +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.00 Pinnacle 4/10
I think Darcis is a living dog here, he looked really good in Pune although he was out more than one year but he is a very good player and i expect Coric to be rusty. Wouldn't be shocked if Darcis wins this but still no idea if he has the stamina to play four or five sets but i expect Darcis to win at least one set here.
Harris/Medvedev over 33.5 (total games) @ 1.943 Pinnacle 4/10
Opelka/Isner over 46 (total games) @ 2.12 Pinnacle 4/10
Kyrgios/Raonic over 44.5 (total games) @ 1.909 Pinnacle 4/10
Three matches where really big servers facing each other. Can't see many breaks there and i do not think they all win three tiebreakers in a row. Expect four or five sets in all of those matches with a lot of tiebreakers.
Majchrzak/Nishikori under 29 (total games) @ 1.98 Pinnacle 4/10
Nishikori is a dark horse for the tournament, he looked really good in Brisbane and i expect him to start strong, he isn't the type of a player who is playing with 50-60% in the first rounds and Majchrzak is nothing special, can't see him troubling Nishikori. Expect a result like 6-4 6-3 6-2 so the bet should win. 

I'm on the side of Ebden being overrated, a poor man's Isner let's say, although with some small pluses. I was thinking about opposing Shapovalov as well and I really liked Andujar in the past, but seeing him fail twice at the start of the season in a not-so-great way isn't a great sign, he didn't stand much of a chance against Opelka and there was also that TB choke if I'm correct. I might very well end up backing him to win a set or something and I'd be all over it with some better performances, but the worry that I have is that he might easily be there just to collect the paycheck. If he wins set one, he could be really competitive and even win maybe, but an effortless 3-0 could be on the cards as well.

Good luck with those opole - you're a braver man than me. Cuevas and Ebden look in poor form, although admittedly it's very early in the season and Feliciano hasn't played properly since last season. I guess that's factored into the pricing but I wouldn't be rushing to back them regardless. I like your thinking about opposing Monfils, Popyrin and Tsitsipas and also Nadal, although with the latter I'd probably take something safer like set overs or Duckworth on a plus. Just my two cents 

Tomas Berdych to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.72 with Bet365
I can't see Edmund repeating his last year's run and he's been handed a very tough R1 draw in the form of Berdych, who surprised everyone in the first week by almost winning his comeback tournament. The Aussie Open has always been kind to the Czech, he's in a really good form, and Edmund might be suffering from some health issues if the rumors are true.

Schwartzmann to beat Nishioka @ 1.75 SportingBet
I think bookies are over-reacting to Nishioka's win over Rublev, who didn't seem to be near his best. Schwartzmann, known for his return game, should be able to easily overcome Nishioka.

Noah Rubin to beat Akira Santillan at 1.68 with Pinnacle
Rubin was quite convincing in his first tournament of the season, while Santillan lost against Safwat, a guy that I don't rate highly at all. On top of that, Rubin has many good memories of the AO and the surface was working well for him in the past, so I reckon that he should be winning this more often than not. Santillan dropped in 2018 imo, while Rubin bounced back - and that should show here.

Da Nang Challenger
Ayeni- Boluda Purkiss bet: 1 @2,50 (Bet365)/ stake 8/10
I like these bet so much I've been following Alafia Ayeni for a while, he is definitely interesting player- he has great physical conditions (over 190cm high), looks like a younger brother of Gael Monfils. He used to be a solid junior (ranked 27th in 2017) and now is time to prove that he can be a solid professional aswell. He will play against a 25 years old Spanish player Carlos Boluda Purkiss, player ranked on 352 position, and the highest rank of him was 254 and probably it was his maximum. He plays mostly on ITF tournaments and is definitely only a clay-surface player. Generally he has record 96-52 on hard courts which is not bad but like I said- 95% of those results were against very weak players. That's no surprise- Boluda Purkiss is just 173 cm high and so thin so it is hard for him to hold serve. I believe Ayeni will serve well here and break opponent at least 3-4 times and it will  be a comfortable win.
 
 
 

Olga Danilović and Iga Świątek know each other very well, first time they played match was when they were 12. Both are absolutely talented, it smells here like a close match- maybe 3 sets but I think Iga is much better on hard courts at the moment. In the mid-week she practiced with Wozniacki and Carolina said that she looked really good.

Auckland
Peter Gojowczyk @ 1.854 Pinnacle 4/10
Gojowczyk has to defend a quarterfinal from 2018 here and i expect him to play a better match than vs. Marterer in Doha this week. Another reason why i prefer Gojowczyk here is because of Pella pulling out of singles and doubles competition in Doha due to back problems. It must be some serious pain as Pella had to defend a semifinal in Doha and I can't see him going 100% a few days later. Even if his back is better, the Australian Open are starting next week and i do not think he will risk anything before.

ATP Brisbane doubles
J. Duckworth/J. Thompson @ 2.70 188bet 4/10
Duckworth and Thompson both having no reason to tank for some qualifying events at the weekend as both already entered main draws of Sydney (Thompson via WC) and Canberra (Duckworth via direct entry) so i guess both will try hard to reach the final in Brisbane. Great effort so far from both, really good doubles play and i think this isn't some kind of a fluke as both are really good and talented doubles players. Thompson won Brisbane International in doubles competition in 2017 partnering Kokkinakis and Duckworth has all the tools to do well in doubles too: good first and second serve, touch, net play. This is looking like a great combination. Ram and Salisbury are looking great too so far but i am not convinced they should being prized like that, for me it's a close matchup where i'll go with the local Aussie home factor at those odds!

ATP Brisbane doubles
R. Ram/J. Salisbury @ 1.92 Sbobet 3/10
Harrison is already out of the singles main draw as he lost a razor close match to Kyrgios last night. He'll lose tons of points as he reached the final in Brisbane last year and he will play qualifying in Auckland at the weekend so maybe he will go out here to travel to New Zealand comfortably. I know Brisbane - Auckland is a short flight about 3-4 hrs. but still tomorrow is Wednesday and he event will start on Saturday. Furthermore Dimitrov has to play a tough match before the doubles match vs. local hero Millman who looked very good in the first round and gave Dimitrov a hell of a match last year. Ram/Salisbury are both very good doubles player and looking solid enough to take it here but still there is a huge gap in class here so if Harrison/Dimitrov deciding to go full on their opponents it could be close but factors i mentioned above are giving me some kind of a good feeling to back the US-british pair.

Great work as always @opole, let's hope that Bencic doesn't choke and Happy New Year once again to all!
Anett Kontaveit to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.29 with Pinnacle
I'm not entire excited to go against Kvitova, but I just have to, I don't understand her skinny version at all, it just doesn't seem like the best fitness basis for her particular style and the match against Collins showed that she still has some way to go. Kontaveit will be fresh after dispatching a tricky opponent in style in the first round and she just looked better physically to me, so I'd have her at evens at most. Kvitova is a big name and I'd love to see her win some Grand Slams again, but she doesn't deserve this sort of favoritism imo.

ATP Brisbane
Ryan Harrison @ 2.82 Pinnacle 3/10
Harrison usually plays very well in Australia. Last year he reached the final in Brisbane and the third round in Melbourne. He likes the conditions and i expect another solid performance here.
Pick is mainly against Kyrgios who is already finding excuses for his 2019 season:
https://www.news.com.au/sport/tennis/nick-kyrgios-plays-down-expectations-ahead-of-2019-season/news-story/5060c04d1d81e0119e52e30930302316
Wouldn't be surprised if he totally fails at the beginning of the new season. 

happy new year all
ATP Brisbane Outright Winner: Alex De Minaur and Daniil Medvedev
I haven't seen any odds yet but I'll be backing these two e.w. (half the odds to reach the final).
Both have made stunning progress in the rankings and I don't think they've finished yet.
I actually saw Alex at the Surbiton Challenger back in June where he lost to Jeremy Chardy in the final but I never thought he'd end the season at number 31.
What I did notice about him was his incredible speed around the court which has to be seen to be believed.
As for the big Russian, Daniil, he's already won three hard court titles and can beat anyone on this surface imo.
Here's hoping to bank some early profits, good luck all
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Update: Alex De Minaur @17.00 and Daniil Medvedev @15.00
both with Bet365.

ATP Brisbane
James Duckworth @5.85 Pinnacle 3/10
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/andy-murray-injury-brisbane-international-return-hip-australian-open-atp-a8701651.html
Hip injuries are always very tough to overcome. There are a lot of examples where a serious hip injury ended a career. I don't know but what Murray said in the article isn't very good. He has still pain, he is only "feeling a bit better" than at the beginning of 2018 and he doesn't know how his hip reacts to some competition as training is a different thing an can't be compared to a regular match. We'll see in which condition Murray will show up. 
Duckworth on the other side just won the AO WC Playoffs two weeks ago with four wins in a row and 16 sets of tennis within six days so he should be really fit and in good shape, prepared well and i always was a huge fan of Duckworth who has an unreal amount of talent and could easily be a Top 50 player without those injuries.
I have to try the odds as i do expect a very good performance by Duckworth. Murray still full of questionmarks.

WTA Brisbane qualif.
Destanee Aiava @ 2.85 5dimes 2/10
Lucie Hradecka @ 5.85 5dimes 1/10
Have to go with both Aiava and Hradecka again. Both looking massively overprized here. Minella and Petkovic both struggling with consistency. Hradecka looked in really good shape today and she is a very dangerous player on good days. Only small stake here. But i expect at least one win here.