Gedkip

Hwang Hee-Chan appeals at 11/5 v Burnley. Would've needed to be 5/2 to be a system bet but he's scored in 6 of his 12 starts this season and I'm willing to go a little shorter. He's opened the scoring in 3 of those games but I'm not quite tempted by 11/2 for him to do so tonight.

Manchester United vs Chelsea
Overall, Man U has had a poor conversion rate of 6.8% as compared to Chelsea with 9.7%, for the season 2023/24. Given this, the Red Devils have improved in the last 5 games, conceding and scoring few goals, unlike Chelsea which conceded more goals despite a good scoring record.
Historically, all the 13 matches played on Wednesday have seen more draws (8), Man U (2wins), and Chelsea (3 wins). For the coach stats, the two coaches have met twice both in the Champions League with each winning as visitors. Back then, Ten Haag was in charge of Ajax, while Pochettino was in charge of Tottenham.
Man U has a woeful performance against the big teams losing all games (4L) and scoring only 1 goal, on the other hand, Chelsea has obtained more points vs the big teams ( 3D, 2L,1W). 
prediction
0-1FT or UN2.5

£25 Win on Liverpool/Everton X @5.5

Lens played a top-class game against Arsenal this week, and considering the complicated start to the season, this win will give the team a boost.
We saw a solid midfield, capable of competing with the English midfield.
A very effective defensive line with Danso and Medina at international level.
In attack, Wahi was very good, as were Thomasso and Sotoca!

This weekend, we welcome Lille, our great rivals.
Lille are not in great form, having just played on Thursday. They've made quite a few changes in preparation for Sunday's game.

But there's no doubt that Racing Club de Lens will be on hand for what promises to be a very hot derby!

The team is complete except for Gradit in defence, who will be replaced by Khusanov, who has had a very good game recently. He'll be ready for this match.

I'm predicting victory for RC Lens !
 
Fier d'etre Lensois
 

Lens have been struggling to find the good football that helped them finish second in Ligue 1 last year.
But don't think it will be easy for Arsenal!
The match will be played at Lens with a huge atmosphere at Bolleart.
Wahi scored his first goal for Lens on Friday and he'll be playing relaxed.
The defence is starting to look as good as it did last season, with a Gradit Danso Medina trio.
In midfield, Samed was rested at the weekend, and Diouf and Mendy will be at 100%.
As in every match, Sotoca will be on every ball.
On paper, Arsenal are clear favourites! But watch out for the desire and determination of the Lensois and the fans, who will be pushing the players right up to the 95th minute.
Prediction : 1X

Eric Ten Haag, as a manager for both Ajax and now Manchester United, has never lost away to any Spanish teams in European competition.  He has a tendency of loosing at home ground. 

Eric Ten Haag, as a manager for both Ajax and now Manchester United, has never lost away to any Spanish teams in European competition.  He has a tendency of loosing at home ground. 

Eric Ten Haag, as a manager for both Ajax and now Manchester United, has never lost away to any Spanish teams in European competition.  He has a tendency of loosing at home ground. 

Arsenal vs Manchester City
The last time they met was in late January, the FA Cup and Arsenal lost 1-0 to Man City at that time. Arsenal are expected to win because they have the home-field advantage and Man City are distracted by European games.
Pick: 1
O/U Pick: Under 2.5
AH Pick: Arsenal 0/+0.5

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
Nottingham Forest will play in this game coming off the back of a 1-1 Premier League tied result vs Bournemouth. It was their fourth straight game without losing in the English top flight, and avoiding relegation now seems more realistic. Nottingham Forest hasn't had any problems with scoring, netting in one hundred percent of their last six matches. They have hit an aggregate of 7 during that period while seeing the number of goals scored against them stand at 7. Such a trend isn't guaranteed to be carried forward into this match. Cheikhou Kouyaté (Hamstring Injury), Jesse Lingard (Hamstring Injury), Dean Henderson (Thigh Problems), Omar Richards (Fractured Leg), and Giulian Biancone (Knee Injury) will not be taking part for Nottingham Forest manager Steve Cooper.
After a loss in their previous game against Arsenal in the Premier League competition, Manchester United and their fans will hope to get a better result this time. Although the Red Devils stayed in the top-four zone, they are now 11 points behind the top-placed Gunners. Proving their predisposition for action-packed matches, the back of the net has been hit 20 times in the previous six games in which Manchester United has taken to the field, giving a mean average of 3.33 goals each clash. Opposition teams have got 6 of this total. Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag has some current player fitness concerns. Axel Tuanzebe (Unknown Injury) and Donny van de Beek (Knee Injury) are names that won't be on the team sheet.
Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            
Both teams have enjoyed good form recently, and they will try to secure a positive result in the first leg of this tie. However, we believe the visitors are closer to a victory, and they should ensure the advantage before the match in front of their fans.
Goals Market Prediction
Their recent games have been pretty efficient and entertaining, and we expect that trend to continue. Therefore, the crowd should enjoy at least three goals in total.
Manchester United to Win @ 1.72
Over 2.5 FT @ 1.95
Correct score 1:3 @ 13.50

Last week my model preformed well (paper chase) with +2.13u. For this week it points out Chelsea and Brentford. Going to look at situational angles, but I guess Brentford will remain solely. 

Tottenham vs Arsenal
The North London Derby is the focus of attention in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon when Tottenham play Arsenal in a 4:30pm GMT kick-off from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It’s a high-stakes fixture with the home side hoping to move into the Champions League qualification places and the away team aiming to extend their lead at the top of the table.
Tottenham were predicted to make big moves this season under Antonio Conte but it’s just not quite happened for them. Don’t get me wrong, Spurs are currently in 5th place but could be in the top four if results go their way. However, there were some touting them to be in the title challenge conversation yet they are 11 points off the pace of top spot. Only 3 wins from their last 8 league games and losing 3 of their previous 4 home league matches has contributed to this falling short of high expectations.
A common trend recently with the team has been starting games slowly. The club have scored 27 of their 37 league goals this season in the second half of the matches and, even more worryingly, they have only scored one first half goal in their last 13 games across all competitions. This could be a game to back Harry Kane as anytime scorer. The England striker has scored 9 goals in 8 Premier League home matches against Tottenham. He is also just 1 goal short of joining Jimmy Greaves as Tottenham’s all-time top scorer and is just 2 goals short of reaching 200 Premier League goals.
Arsenal continue to lead the way in the top flight of English football. Mikel Arteta’s side will have been delighted to see Manchester City dropped points against Manchester United. It now means the Gunners will move 8 points clear at the top of the table if they win this game. Arsenal have won all 6 of their London derby matches in the league so far this season and a victory here would secure them 7 consecutive London derby wins in the league for the first time since 2007/08.
An impressive statistic is that Arsenal have picked up 6 of their 8 clean sheets in the league on their travels. The club are also unbeaten in their last 6 away league games including winning their last 3 in a row. A surprise candidate for anytime scorer in this game is Eddie Nketiah. The English youngster has stepped in after the injury to Gabriel Jesus and has bagged 5 goals in his last 5 appearances. Is he finally fulfilling his potential?
I’m fascinated to see how this game unfolds. Tottenham need a win to boost morale otherwise they risk having the fans start to turn on Conte. It is disconcerting that Conte has only won 2 of his 10 league games against Arsenal down the years. Arsenal want a victory to stretch their lead at the top but Arteta has lost all three of his away league games against Tottenham as Arsenal manager. I’m not sure I can separate these two for this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a high-scoring game ending in a draw.
Draw @ 13/5 with SpreadEx
BTTS @ 5/6 with Betfair

Rennes vs PSG
Rennes have the third-highest home victory percentage in the league, just behind Lens and PSG. Additionally, they have not lost to PSG at de la Route de Lorient Stade in their recent three matches, giving them psychological advantage.
PSG are not as strong on the road as we know. It was evident in their matchup with Lens. Their most recent league away game ended in a 3-1 loss to Lens and it was the first away league loss this season.
O/U Pick: Under 3/3.5

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao
Sociedad had a five-match winning streak over Bilbao at Anoeta, despite Sociedad having a winning skid against Bilbao in their last two meetings.
The AH first odds given by the bookmakers was of zero, indicating a close trend for the upcoming game. Real Sociedad will at least compete for one point against Bilbao during the match.

10 point treble
Villa 2
Man U 4.2
Fulham 6.5

Aston Villa to bt Leeds
Aston Villa look a different side under Unai Emery and their only league defeat under him came at home to Liverpool. They lost in the Cup at the weekend at home to Stevenage, but Emery fielded a far from full strength side. Leeds are 14th in the league 3 places and 5 points behind Villa but have been inconsistent all season and their only win on the road this term in the league was a shock 2-1 win at Liverpool. Head-to-head favours Villa who are unbeaten against Leeds in their last 5 meetings and in that time Leeds have scored just 3 goals and that was in a 3-3 draw at Villa Park in February last year. Leeds first half performance against Cardiff in the cup at the weekend will be a cause for concern if repeated tonight as they never showed up and had to rely on two late goals to grab a draw. I fancy Villa to continue their recent good run and take 3 points. 
 
 

Napoli vs Juventus
Napoli will want to continue from where they left off last time out with the 2-0 Serie A victory versus Sampdoria. They returned to the winning track after losing to Inter in the first game in 2023. Napoli is currently the Serie A leader, being seven points ahead of its upcoming rival. Over their preceding six fixtures, Luciano Spalletti's Napoli has seen rewards for their attempts on goal a total of 9 times, an average number of goals scored per match equal to 1.5. The Napoli manager Luciano Spalletti has a full complement, with no fitness concerns to speak of before this match owing to a fully healthy squad available to choose from.
Juventus comes into this encounter after a 1-0 Serie A win to beat Udinese in their previous match. It was Bianconeri's seventh straight win that launched them to 2nd place on the table. Over the course of their last six outings, Juventus have amassed a total of 9 goals. Juventus have also managed to score in every single one of those games. In that time, they've had two goals go against them. Juventus boss Massimiliano Allegri has to contend with reduced team options currently. Ángel Di María (Calf Problems), Bremer (Muscle Fatigue), Mattia De Sciglio (Hamstring Injury), Leonardo Bonucci (Tear in the abductor muscle), Dusan Vlahovic (Pubalgia), Juan Cuadrado (Knee Problems), Paul Pogba (Thigh Muscle Strain), and Kaio Jorge (Patella rupture) are names that won't be on the team sheet.
Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            
It is going to be a tight match, and these two teams have a fierce rivalry between them. Although Juventus is in excellent form, Napoli booked three straight wins at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona against this rival, and we think they can continue that run.
Goals Market Prediction
Juventus has been very disciplined in the back lately, and their latest games haven't produced many goals. Five of Juve's previous six Serie A matches stayed under a 2.5 margin, and this one shouldn't be different.
Napoli to Win @ 2.00
Under 2.5 FT @ 1.85
Correct score 1:0 @ 6.70

Draw is a bit safe. If it were not for two hard fought wins for Manchester City and Manchester United, Fulham would be having 9 unbeaten games. Chelsea don't have the capability to win against stubborn Fulham.

I'm torn between a draw and a Chelsea win here. I do feel Graham Potter has been hard done by with injuries but the results don't lie. Aleksandar Mitrovic missing for Fulham is a big factor and if he was playing I would even have been tempted to back a home win at 16/5 with SpreadEx. I still feel Chelsea haven't been as bad as their results suggest but poor finishing and a lack of quality available right now is holding them back. I'm going to stick with backing a draw at 5/2 with Bet365.

Fulham vs Chelsea
Following on from their previous result, Fulham will be hoping for more of the same after the 2-0 FA Cup victory over Hull City. It was the Cottagers' fourth straight win in all competitions after being successful in the Premier League three times in a row. They have claimed a sum of 10 during that period and have conceded a total of five. Nonetheless, we will have to wait and see whether that trend will be sustained here in this game. Going into this encounter, Fulham has not beaten Chelsea in their previous 20 matches in the league. A shocking run, it really is. Nevertheless, the hosts are full of confidence, and they hope to break that terrible streak on Thursday evening.
Since being defeated in their last game at the hands of Manchester City in FA Cup action, Chelsea and their traveling supporters will be hoping that they can get a better result in this one. It is not the only concern for the Blues since they sit in a disappointing 10th place in the Premier league table. They celebrated only one win in the previous eight rounds, and the away side is far from Champions League qualification. The Blues have had trouble finding the back of the opponent's net this season, while their defense has not been tight enough. Chelsea boss Graham Potter has a number of players out of action. Edouard Mendy (Shoulder Injury), Christian Pulisic (Knee Problems), Raheem Sterling (Hamstring Injury), Ben Chilwell (Hamstring Injury), Wesley Fofana (Knee Injury), Reece James (Knee Injury), N'Golo Kanté (Hamstring Injury), and Armando Broja (Cruciate Ligament Rupture) miss out here.
Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            
The momentum is on Fulham's side, and although they are slight underdogs, we think they can do well in this game. Therefore, we will support them to remain undefeated against the London rival.
Goals Market Prediction
Fulham has been involved in many high-scoring games this season, and that trend might continue. We believe both teams should be able to find the back of the rival's net in this encounter. 
Fulham AH +0.5 @ 1.78
BTTS Yes @ 1.72
Correct score 1:1 @ 6.80

Fulham vs Chelsea
Fulham currently have a four-match winning run. Chelsea have gone three games without a victory because of a lot of injured players. Fulham have not defeated Chelsea in their previous ten meetings, giving Chelsea the psychological advantage. As Fulham are in form while Chelsea are in a poor state, it is time for Fulham to revenge.
Pick: 1
O/U Pick: Over 2.5

Fulham to beat Chelsea
Chelsea looks like a team without a direction at the moment and were knocked out of the cup at the weekend very tamely at Manchester City losing 4-0. They are 10th in the league 10 points off a Champions League place for next season and with a couple of tricky Champions League round of 16 ties to come against Borussia Dortmund. They have managed just 1 win in their last 7 games in all competitions, a 2-0 home win against Bournemouth. Fulham on the other hand are enjoying a great season in 7th place in the table 3 points ahead of Chelsea. Since the return to league football after the break for the World Cup they have won all 4 games (3 League, 1 FA Cup) played scoring 8 and conceding 1 and in Mitrovic have a forward in top form. Head-to-head favour Chelsea who are on a 21 game unbeaten run stretching back to 2006, but I think Fulham will not have a better chance of ending that run against a Chelsea side low on confidence and suffering a bad injury crisis with the likes of James, Fofana, Kante and Chilwell to name just 4 all unavailable

A standard pair of results last night with Manchester United and Newcastle progressing with clean sheet wins. Will we see a similar outcome for Manchester City tonight? Southampton did well to get the win in the FA Cup on the weekend but this is an entirely different proposition. I still have concerns for the Saints under Nathan Jones and it's very disconcerting that the fans have turned on him already. It's hard for a manager to turn it around when that happens.
I think Wolves looked greatly improved against Liverpool in the FA Cup on the weekend. The Julen Lopetegui effect is clearly taking hold. Nottingham Forest are a difficult side to play at the City Ground though so could that game go all the way to extra-time and penalties.
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves: Draw @ 11/5 with Bet365
Manchester City to Win to Nil @ 21/20 with Unibet
 

Lorient vs Monaco
In previous matches, Monaco have prevailed against Lorient, 6W-2D-2L, giving them the psychological advantage. According to above, Monaco stand the chance to win in the forthcoming game.
Pick: 2
O/U Pick: Under 2.5/3

Rennes -1/2 @1.99
Min price to bet: -1/2 @1.95
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: key lw/cf Terrier out for Rennes (out for season); cm Xeka also unavailable (long-term absentee cm Santamaria still out as well, expected to be back in next couple of weeks)
Note: Terrier's injury is a huge blow for Rennes' ambition, he is a fantastic player that can play in multiple positions, he is one of the best finishers in Ligue 1, and one of the most underrated players in last couple of years - and frankly, it's quite puzzling he is still at Rennes. He has scored 21 goals in 37 Ligue 1 games last season (just 2 from penalties); and this season, he's been Rennes' (by far) best rated player, top scorer (9 goals in 16 games) and joint-leader in assists (4 ast). He suffered a cruciate ligament injury in first half of Rennes' 2-1 home win v Nice on Jan 2 (though before getting injured, he scored a goal for 1-0); and he will be a big miss in the remaining part of the season. Still, Rennes have a huge depth in attacking areas, and this will be a big chance for players like Doku and Sulemana to shine again - both of them have shown plenty of promise, well both of them are quite an established names already, but injuries have slowed them down quite a bit in last couple of years... both are healthy now, and Doku is a natural replacement for Terrier in Rennes' current formation. We have initially downgraded Rennes by 0.15 rtg points after Terrier's injury, there is no guarantee that that adjustment is good/accurate and we may be proven wrong until the end of the season, but it's also difficult not to trust in this hugely talented Rennes' squad. Now, even with Terrier, 4th placed Rennes did have problems on their travels this season, as superb 8-0-1 home record (8 straight wins) is in stark contrast with 2-4-2 on the road; with a small excuse being that, except PSG, they have played each of other top 6 teams on the road (Lens, Marseille, Monaco, Lille). Obviously, they are well aware of their away-game problems, and it was one of the focuses of coach Genesio's press conf today. Clermont won at Lyon 1-0, beating us both on hcap and TG in the process, in what looked like embarrassing bets already early in 1st half (despite market agreeing with us), and terrible Lyon performance overall. Not taking anything from Clermont, but Lyon did make things easy for them there, with incredibly lethargic, unimaginative, truly abysmal performance, which at times looked like as if they didn't care at all. This win has pushed Clermont up to 9th place, well above expectations, but also well above the position their performances so far have merited - luck factor has played an important positive role for Clermont so far. They've done better on the road than at home though, 3 defeats in last 5 at home, including defeats vs relegation candidates Brest and Troyes, who have both scored 3 goals here - and this certainly looks like a venue where Rennes should be able to start on improving on their away record. Weather conditions should be ok; Rennes' rw Bourigeaud has been absolutely sensational since Oct and may have to take on even more responsibilities after Terrier's injury; but him and plethora of attacking talent that Rennes have (Guiri, Kalimuendo, Doku, midfield led by Majer and two fantastic fullbacks in Traore and Truffert/Meling) should make sure that our estimated away win of 54.5% is not too high.
Nice -3/4 @2.13
Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.07 or -1/2 @1.84
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: the hosts' first choice rb Atal is still out-injured; head coach Favre has been sacked, with his assistant and former Nice player Didier Digard taking over hc duties
Note: Ok, we wouldn't have backed Nice here if Favre was still at helm - while he is a quality coach, things were just not all right at Nice since his appointment in the summer, the performances and results were far below expectations, with culmination a few days ago in embarrassing Coupe de France elimination against low-league side Le Puy... and Nice played with very strong 11 there, almost their best possible. Former player Digard is a new coach, he was a member of a coaching staff already and knows the team inside out, but it remains to be seen how successful he will be. So basically, while it was obvious that change is needed, there are no guarantees that this will work, and for us to trust Nice immediately after a coach change is perhaps a bit of a gamble - but looking at their roster, there is no doubt that this is a team with plenty of high quality individuals, and with no doubt that Digard will have their respect, there are some elements that make us confident this will work out well for Nice in 2nd part of the season. Montpellier have shown some signs of improvement since their coach change in mid-Oct, but they still have to be considered as widely erratic side, quite dis-balanced, with their attack miles ahead of their defensive strength (and individual quality); and they also suffered a surprising Cup exit, vs 2nd league side Pau - although at least Montpellier played with a rotated lineup in that one. Ok weather conditions, we est Nice at 58% to win this, and considering their struggles this season, and quite a poor home record (2-3-3, just 6 goals scored in those 8 games), this price could perhaps improve - but ultimately, we do expect a positive reaction after a coach change from players, who have clearly underachieved as a group so far, and perhaps some extra effort to put the Cup embarrassment behind with 3 league points.